Eric Berger

There are two things I want to talk about before jumping into the forecast for this week—a forecast I would classify as not great, but far from terrible. To start with, I want to thank everyone who came out to our first Fall Day celebration at the Houston Botanic Garden on a gorgeous Sunday. We should get a final tally today, but I think 400 or 500 people came by to say hello, and it was just wonderful to meet you all.

Matt and I also want to say a huge thank you to Reliant, who went above and beyond to organize and support this event on short notice. Megan, Pat, and the events team there did a spectacular job of ensuring there were activities for kids, coffee and snacks, and finding the great location. It’s due to our long-term partnership with Reliant, now more than five years running, that we’re able to hold events like this.

If you were at the Fall Day event, you may have heard me announce what has been clear for awhile now—the 2022 Texas hurricane season is over. This is something we could have written last week, but it felt inappropriate to do so as Florida was getting slammed by Hurricane Ian.

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30, but due to a variety of factors including a shifting jet stream at this time of year, it is rare for Texas to get struck by a hurricane after the end of September. This year, based on what we’re seeing in the tropics at present, should be no different. A freak storm is always possible, and we may see some tropical moisture at some point, but you should feel free to let your guard down. We made it!

Monday

I’m afraid this week won’t bring the same, absolutely splendid weather we saw at the end of September and early October. However, we’re not going back to full-on summer either. While the air will be more humid than last week, mornings and evenings will still be fairly pleasant.

High temperatures on Monday will reach the upper 80s under mostly sunny skies, with light winds out of the northeast at 5 mph or so. We may start to see some clouds higher in the atmosphere later today and tonight, and these will be related to Hurricane Orlene, a Category-2 storm in the Pacific making landfall in western Mexico today. Alas, we won’t see enough moisture from Orlene to bring much needed rainfall to our area. Lows tonight will drop into the mid-60s in Houston, with cooler conditions inland.

Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday

The story of the mid-week will be that of a slowly warming trend, with daytime highs rising from the upper 80s to 90 degrees, and overnight lows from the mid-60s to the upper-60s. However, in terms of humidity the dewpoints—a measurement of moisture in the atmosphere—are still going to remain in the 60s. What does this mean? Simply that while our air will feel more humid, it won’t be uncomfortably or oppressively so. Skies will be mostly sunny with, alas, very little chance of rain.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

Highs will be around 90 degrees this Friday, but at some point later in the day, or overnight, a weak front should push into the area. Don’t expect miracles from this one. For starters, it seems unlikely to produce any rainfall. But it should knock the humidity back some, and trim a few degrees off our daytime and nighttime temperatures. Honestly, with mostly sunny skies and highs in the 80s, this weekend should again be pretty nice.

I know you’re all wondering about rainfall. The bad news is that it’s still a ways off. The somewhat hopeful news is that, with the next front, which I would pencil in around October 13 or 14, the models do seem a little more bullish about rain chances. I would caution that this is 10 days out, so it lies at or just beyond the edge of our ability to predict. But I’m an optimist, so I’m saying there’s a chance …

Happy Saturday. I hope your weekend, wherever you are, and whatever you’re doing, is as pleasant as the weather outside. This post is simply a final reminder of the special Fall Day Celebration we’re holding on Sunday, from 10 am to noon, at the Houston Botanic Garden. The event is free and open to all. Why are we doing this? Because we think fall is worth celebrating, and the whole team here at Space City Weather just wanted to try this. You can expect the following activities on Sunday:

• Reliant table: Hugo mascot, branded giveaway items, coloring pages, bean bag toss game, raffling off Astros signed baseball and jersey and tickets
  • Luis Garcia jersey or Yuli Gurriel signed baseball
  • Tickets for next Tuesday’s game
• Face painting
• Ella Coffee cart
• Smoothie and snack truck
• Photo backdrop
• Meet-and-greet: Matt, Maria, Lee, Dwight, and I will all be there
• Botanic Garden: Free entry to the garden for the rest of the day (guests can go explore the rest of the grounds after our meet-and-greet), nature/LEGO themed scavenger hunt for kids

Some people have asked about the timing of the event, and are concerned about conflicts with church and other activities on a Sunday morning. We hear you. But to be honest, scheduling this celebration has been a challenge. First of all, it had to be after we were certain that fall’s first real front had pushed into Houston. We were finally sure about that a little more than 10 days ago. At the time were not sure the drier and cooler air would stick around for so long as it has. So our timing options were Sunday morning, or an afternoon event at 3 pm. I was concerned it might be a little warm at that time of day, and less conducive to an event celebrating cooler weather. So we went with the morning.

The bottom line is that Sunday morning’s weather will be spectacular, in the 70s, with blue skies. Come on out and say hello, if you can. You can help our planners by RSVPing here, but it’s not required.

Good morning. The major weather story in the United States continues to have nothing to do with Houston. Now-Tropical Storm Ian has continued its devastating trek across central Florida overnight, bringing strong winds and deluging rainfall to areas such as Orlando, and knocking out power to one-quarter of the state. Ian’s center will soon emerge over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean, allowing the storm to make a second landfall into South Carolina on Friday. Yesterday, on Ars Technica, I wrote about why this is the kind of storm that gives me nightmares as a forecaster.

Houston, and much of Texas, lie on the backside of Ian’s massive circulation. This means we’re going to see a continued flow of dry air through the weekend, bringing us warm days in the upper 80s, and lows near 60 for much of Houston, with nights in the 50s for inland areas. For this time of year, this is a potent and prolonged front.

Thursday

Look for highs today in the upper 80s with sunny skies. Winds will be light, out of the northeast at 5 to 10 mph. Low temperatures tonight will drop to 60 degrees in Houston, and a few areas near Conroe and points further inland may drop all the way to 50 degrees beneath clear skies. It has not been this chilly in Houston since at least early April.

Friday

Basically, the same marvelous day and night as Thursday.

Saturday and Sunday

The air mass will start to modify slightly this weekend, but our air is still going to remain plenty dry for this time of year. Look for highs in the mid- to upper-80s, and nights in the low 60s. The weather should be spectacular for our first-ever Fall Day celebration, which will take place from 10 am to noon. Come by and say hello to Matt, myself, Maria, Dwight, and Lee, enjoy plenty of activities for adults and kids, and walk around the beautiful Houston Botanic Garden. It’s free, and just our way of welcoming fall-like weather back to Houston after a long summer. If you’re so inclined, you can RSVP here. So far we’ve had a great response!

Next week

Conditions starting by Monday or Tuesday of next week will feel somewhere between summer and fall in Houston, with highs generally about 90 degrees, lows in the upper 60s, and partly to mostly sunny skies. The air, however, will be drier than it usually is during summer, so it won’t be oppressively humid during the days. Mornings and evenings should be reasonably pleasant outside. Another front is possible in about 10 days times, give or take.

Is it ever going to rain again?

Some parts of Houston have not recorded meaningful rainfall in nearly four weeks. The region’s main weather monitoring sites, Bush Intercontinental, Hobby Airport, and Galveston, are all nearly 4 inches below normal on rainfall this month. Unfortunately, that’s not going to change during the last couple of days of September, or the first week of October. Our next real chance of rain probably will not come until the October 8 to 10 time frame, so not this weekend, but the following one. And even then rainfall is far from a certainty. This is not a great place to be, as La Niña is expected to persist through this winter, which tends to bring drier conditions in Texas, including the greater Houston region.

Good morning. The majority of the Houston region has dropped into the low 60s this morning as cool, dry air blankets the area. This week’s front will have sticking power as Texas falls on the backside of the extremely powerful Hurricane Ian, which will bring a catastrophic storm surge to southwest Florida later today. The slow-moving storm, with sustained winds of 155 mph, is the kind of hurricane that destroys communities. Frankly, this is the kind of storm I worry most about when I think of Houston and its vulnerabilities to tropical weather. We need to be ready to help Floridians in the days and weeks ahead.

Wednesday

Given Florida’s misery it feels almost guilty to write that Houston’s forecast looks absolutely splendid. Yes, today will be warm again, with a high of about 90 degrees beneath mostly sunny skies. But with continued dry air, we can expect nighttime lows to drop into the upper 50s for areas well inland, low 60s for the city, and slightly warmer conditions right along the coast. Winds will be out of the northeast at 5 to 10 mph.

Thursday and Friday

These should be the driest and coolest days of the week, as the northeasterly flow in the wake of Ian reaches its maximum. Look for sunny days with highs in the mid-80s, and lows dropping to around 60 degrees in Houston. This is just spectacular weather for late September.

Saturday and Sunday

Mostly dry air remains in place this weekend, with highs generally in the upper 80s, sunny skies, and lows in the low 60s. As a reminder, we’re holding a Fall Day Celebration from 10am to Noon CT on Sunday at Houston Botanic Garden. See more details here. The event is free and you don’t need tickets. Please come by and say hello.

Next week

The air mass over the region will slowly modify next week as humidity starts to return. But it looks like nighttime temperatures will still be dropping into the upper 60s, so it’s not going to be a full-on return to summer-like weather. Some slight rain chances start to return to the forecast about a week from now, but they’re iffy at best.

Hurricane Ian

The category-5 hurricane now has sustained winds of 155 mph, and will make landfall near Port Charlotte in Southwest Florida this afternoon. It will push a surge of 12 to 16 feet of water into the state. Ian will then slowly track northeast across Florida for much of the next two days, bringing flooding rains and damaging structures will wind gusts well above hurricane force. There are three main threats from hurricanes—wind, surge, and inland rainfall—and unfortunately Ian is going to bring awful doses of all three in the next few days to Florida. The storm is then likely to move into the southeastern Atlantic Ocean and make a second landfall on Georgia and South Carolina Friday, albeit as a much weaker system.