Eric Berger

Good morning. A cold front has moved through the Houston region overnight, and if you live along and south of Interstate 10 you probably felt it as lots of lightning came along for the ride. Areas further inland saw less fireworks and little to no rainfall. We’ll now see a couple of days with some drier air before a warmer and more humid pattern returns.

Tuesday

A few lingering showers will clear out this morning, and we should see partly sunny skies by this afternoon. Winds will be fairly brisk, out of the north at 15 to 20 mph with higher gusts. Highs today will reach the mid-70s. Temperatures tonight should be the coolest of the week, dropping into the 50s for most areas except along the coast.

Wednesday

This day will start out with some clouds, but skies should turn mostly sunny during the afternoon with highs in the low 70s. Winds will veer back to come from the Gulf of Mexico, that this should nudge overnight temperatures up slightly, into the low 60s for Houston. A few, scattered showers are possible later on Wednesday as this onshore flow returns.

Thursday

This will be a breezy, humid day with mostly cloudy skies as high temperatures push up to near 80 degrees. Winds could gust as high as 25 or 30 mph out of the south. There will again be a slight chance of afternoon and evening showers. Lows Thursday night will only drop low 70s.

Friday

Expect another breezy and humid day, this time with highs in the low 80s.

Saturday and Sunday

The details for this weekend’s forecast remain a bit iffy, but generally you can expect a (very) weak front to move into the area on Saturday morning, perhaps with a few scattered showers. The front won’t provide too much oomph, so we’re probably looking at partly to mostly cloudy skies both weekend days, with highs in the 80s, and lows in the upper 60s.

Next week

Frankly, most of next week looks warm, with highs in the mid- to upper-80s. Some areas may well touch, dare I say it, 90 degrees? It looks like some sort of front will work its way into the area by Thursday of Friday next week, which should finally cool us down and bring another splash of rainfall. That’s far enough in the future to be fairly fuzzy, however.

Good morning. Houston will see a healthy chance of storms during the overnight hours, setting up a couple of cooler days on Tuesday and Wednesday. Then we’re going to warm up heading into the weekend. The forecast by then starts to become hazy, as it’s unclear whether a front will push all the way into the metro area.

Monday

The major story this morning is dense fog, which may linger until 9 or even 10 a.m. before air temperatures warm. Beyond the fog, skies will be mostly cloudy today with highs in the low 80s. Like on Sunday, dewpoints will be sticky all day, with light easterly winds. There will be a few isolated showers today, but overall rain chances are only about 10 percent. Conditions will be warm again tonight, with lows dropping into the mid-60s.

A front will approach the area tonight, and bring with it a healthy chance of showers and thunderstorms. The bulk of this activity should occur between midnight and 8 a.m. My sense is that these showers will be fairly hit or miss in that some parts of the region may see a few tenths of an inch of rain, whereas a few parts of town pick up 1 to 2 inches of rainfall. In any case, these totals should not produce any notable flooding, and the worst of this activity should be over by sunrise on Tuesday.

Tuesday

After the showers move on, we may see a bit of sunshine on Tuesday. Highs will be in the mid- to upper-70s, with northerly winds gusting at 25 mph or even a bit higher. These northerly winds will herald an influx of drier air that will be with us through Wednesday. Tuesday night should be the coldest of the week, with lows dropping into the 50s for most of the region.

Wednesday

Skies will remain partly to mostly cloudy on Wednesday, with highs only reaching about 70 degrees. With the upper atmosphere remaining moderately disturbed it is possible that we see a 10 to 20 percent chance of light rain. Lows on Wednesday night will be a bit warmer, in the low 60s, as a southerly flow returns.

Thursday and Friday

The end of the work week looks warmer with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s, and mostly cloudy skies. These will be fairly sticky days, with warm nights. Rain chances won’t be zero, but they’ll be quite low, on the order of maybe 10 percent each day.

Saturday and Sunday

The forecast for the weekend is, shall we say, up in the air. At issue is whether a weak front has enough oomph to push all the way through Houston. My solution to this uncertainty is to wave my hands and say temperatures will be in the upper 70s or lower 80s, with lows in the 60s, and a slight chance of rain. If you have outdoor plans, at this point, things looks fine. But give me a day or two to firm up the forecast, please.

Good morning. Houston’s more or less Spring-like weather will continue through this weekend and into next week. We won’t be getting too hot, and we won’t be getting too cold, and there will be a smattering of rain showers from time to time.

Thursday

Today will see fairly warm temperatures, as mostly cloudy skies give way to partly to mostly sunny skies this afternoon. This will allow temperatures to pop up into the low- to mid-80s. Winds will be noticeable out of the south at 10 to 15 mph, with gusts up to 25 mph. As clouds return this evening, expect a warm night with lows in the low 70s.

Friday

A front will progress toward the Houston metro area on Friday, likely producing fairly widespread, but mostly light showers. A capping inversion in the atmosphere will most likely prevent stronger thunderstorms from developing over the Houston metro area, but the further east you live the more likely this is to happen—further east as in the Beaumont area. Highs will be about 80 degrees on Friday, and overnight temperatures will slowly come down as the front stalls before finally pushing off the coast Saturday morning.

Saturday

This will be a fine, sunny day with an abundance of dry air. Look for sunny skies with highs in the low- to mid-80s as air temperatures warm quickly with less moisture in the air. Clouds return on Saturday evening as the onshore flow redevelops, however. Lows should drop to around 60 degrees in Houston, with cooler conditions inland.

Sunday

With a southerly flow, look for more humid and partly cloudy conditions on Sunday. Highs will probably top out in the upper 70s. It’s increasingly likely that most areas will see at least some sprinkles on Sunday, with accumulations of one to two-tenths of an inch possible.

Next week

We’ll see more of the same next week, which is to say a weak front comes in on Monday and cools us down and dries out our air for a few days before a warmer flow resumes. The details of this remain unclear, but it seems safe to expect highs in the 70s and 80s, and lows in the 50s and 60s. So all in all, pretty Spring-like weather for Houston.

One of the questions I’m regularly asked is for a long-term forecast for an outdoor wedding or reception in the greater Houston area. The reality is, a forecast for anything further than about 10 days out is little more than a wild guess, and planning for weddings takes months. So my advice to people considering outdoor events in Houston is to choose the time of year carefully.

A few years ago I spent some time studying this question, and the conclusion I came to is that March is the best time of year for outdoor events, in particular the second half of the month. Why? In addition to being fairly temperate, late March actually has the lowest daily chance of precipitation of any time of year. Here’s the full analysis I performed. That is not to say bad weather does not occur in March. Of course it does. But if you took this advice months ago and planned your wedding for this weekend, well, Saturday is going to be splendid. You’re welcome.

Wednesday

Houston has firmly returned to a warmer, and more humid pattern with a pronounced southerly flow. Lows this morning have only fallen to about 70 degrees, and with partly to mostly cloudy skies, highs will reach about 80 degrees or a few ticks higher. Again, a few sprinkles will be possible, but most of the area should remain rain free. Winds will blow from the south, gusting to 20 mph or higher this afternoon. Lows tonight will again be warm.

Thursday

Conditions will be similar on Thursday, with perhaps even more pronounced winds out of the south gusting up to 30 mph. Highs for some inland areas may reach the mid-80s.

Friday

A weak front will push through the area on Friday, likely with a thin line of showers and a few thunderstorms. At this point I think any severe weather probably will remain to the north and east of Houston, and rain accumulations here likely only be measured in one or two tenths of an inch of rain. Showers should end during the late afternoon or evening hours, with overnight lows dropping into the upper 50s.

Saturday

This is the pick of the litter for the weekend. Although highs will get into the low 80s, the daytime will have plenty of dry air from the front, and this will also clear our skies out for the day. The onshore flow resumes pretty quickly on Saturday afternoon or evening, however, and therefore lows on Saturday night probably will only drop into the low 60s.

Sunday and beyond

Sunday and part of Monday look warmish, with highs in the low 80s and humidity, before another front arrives on Monday. Both days also have a 40-ish percent chance of light rain. It’s too early for firm details, but I think we’ll see a few days in the 70s, with lows in the 50s next week in the wake of the front. That should feel pretty pleasantly spring-like for the region I’d say.