Eric Berger

Our summer-long battle with high pressure has mostly been futile, but over the next several days the good guys should win. We’ll see an influx of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, which should in turn drive up rain chances and bring down temperatures slightly. I don’t think we’re looking at any type of flooding conditions, but much of the region should pick up one-half to one inch of rain through Sunday, and after today high temperatures should be more reasonable, in the lower 90s for much of the area, for a little while.

Tuesday

Highs today should reach the mid- to upper-90s for inland areas, as mostly sunny skies prevail. However, as the sea breeze kicks up we’ll see some isolated to scattered thunderstorms move inland from the coast, and for some locations that will bring the mercury down this afternoon. Rain chances are probably about 20 or 30 percent. Winds will generally be light today, out of the south or southeast at around 5 mph, except where storms develop.

Wednesday

Conditions will be slightly cooler, with slightly higher rain chances on Wednesday as Houston’s weather starts to become more influenced by the Gulf. Look for highs in the mid-90s, with rain chances in the 30 to 50 percent range. Nighttime temperatures will remain sticky, only briefly dropping below 80 degrees for most locations.

Thursday and Friday

A couple of atmospheric disturbances will combine with Gulf moisture to raise rain chances to around 70 percent for both of these days. While chances will be moderately higher closer to the coast, and east of Interstate 45, much of the region should see intermittent light to moderate rain showers. Both days should bring partly cloudy skies, and in addition to this, rain-cooled air may hold highs in the upper 80s to 90 degrees. Rain showers will be most likely during the afternoon hours on both days.

Saturday and Sunday

Rain showers will be more hit or miss this weekend, with slightly better coverage on Saturday than Sunday. I’d expect these to be mostly sunny days, with highs generally in the low 90s for Houston, and likely a bit warmer further inland in places like College Station.

Next week

It appears as though high pressure will start to reassert itself next week, with high temperatures likely to push back up into the mid- to upper-90s for much of the Houston area, to go along with diminished rain chances. I don’t think we’re looking at a ridge-of-doom type scenario, but it’s the middle of August so generally that means rather hot weather around these parts.

Good morning. Based upon the last three decades of weather, the historically warmest time of year for Houston runs from July 29 through August 12. During this approximately two-week period, the city of Houston averages a high temperature of 96 degrees, and a low of 76, at Bush Intercontinental Airport. And if we drill down further, the climatological peak of summer during the last 30 years has come on August 6, which was Saturday.

Although we cannot say anything definitive about the rest of summer in Houston, we continue to see indications that conditions will not be excessively hot like we saw in June and July. Nevertheless, summer is still summer in Houston, and during the next four to eight weeks, as we await fall’s first front, you can expect plenty of heat and humidity. We’re also at our greatest risk of hurricanes, historically. So, fun.

Monday

After wetter conditions for some areas on Friday and Saturday, high pressure has begun to assert control over the region again. Accordingly, we’ll see highs near 100 degrees across much of the city today to go along with partly to mostly sunny skies. The sea breeze will produce a 20 to 30 percent chance of showers this afternoon, or during the early evening hours. Winds will generally be light, out of the south to southeast at 5 to 10 mph. Lows tonight should fall briefly below 80 degrees.

Tuesday

This day will be a lot like Monday.

Wednesday

The upper Texas coast should start to feel the influence of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico by midweek, with an increase in cloud cover and rain chances bumping up to about 40 or 50 percent. Look for highs in the mid-90s.

Thursday and Friday

These look to be cloudy and cooler days, with highs perhaps peaking at 90 degrees, or in the low 90s. We’ll see healthy rain chances in the 50 to 70 percent chance each day, with most areas likely picking up between 0.25 and 0.75 inch, and higher isolated totals. As of now totals look higher for coastal counties, but I don’t think inland areas will be entirely shut out.

Saturday, Sunday, and beyond

More typical summertime weather should return this weekend, with highs in the mid-90s, partly cloudy skies, and perhaps a 30 percent chance of rain. At this point it appears probable that we’ll start to see the influence of high pressure, with highs in the mid- to upper-90s returning for much of the area during the early part of next week.

Tropics

Expect to see some chatter about a tropical disturbance in the far eastern Atlantic over the next few days. But really, this is not something we need concern ourselves with because a) ultimately this system is going to struggle with wind shear over the central Atlantic Ocean, and b) the steering currents are likely to pull it north before the system approaches any landmasses. Overall, the tropics remain is a pretty quiet posture as we head toward mid-August. Matt will have more in his weekly tropics update on Tuesday.

Houston now has officially recorded 20 100-degree days this year, which is enough to tie us for fourth all-time for any calendar year. The bad news is that we’re going to see yet another day with widespread triple-digit temperatures across the region today. The good news is that this may be the last one for at least several days with relief on the horizon.

Thursday

It will be another scorcher as high pressure drives inland temperatures above 100 degrees, with mostly sunny skies. Winds will be out of the south at about 10 mph, with higher gusts. Like on Wednesday, we’ll see some scattered showers and thunderstorms fire up along the sea breeze, but overall chances are only about 10 or 20 percent. Overnight lows will again struggle to drop below 80 degrees.

Friday

As high pressure retreats, an upper-level low pressure system will help usher in a surge a tropical moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. This will lead to partly to mostly cloudy skies, and bump up rain chances for areas that are either east of Interstate 45, along the coast, or both. We’re talking about a 60 or 70 percent chance of rain for these areas, with lesser chances further inland and westward. Overall accumulations won’t be above a few tenths of an inch for most locations, but some areas should see bullseyes of 1 to 2 inches. Highs will be dependent upon clouds and rain, but should hold in the low-90s for much of the area.

Saturday and Sunday

Both weekend days should see highs in the low- to mid-90s, with mostly sunny skies. Rain chances will remain elevated for coastal areas, especially on Saturday. But we’re not looking at anything approaching a washout as showers will be hit or miss, and should move through quickly.

Next week

This should be, dare I say it, a decent week for August? For the most part we’re going to see high temperatures in the low- to mid-90s, and the most likely outcome is that high pressure does not build back over the region. Rather, we should see enough moisture for at least a 30 percent, if not higher, chance of rain each day. For August, man, I’ll take it.

High pressure will continue to dominate our weather for a couple of more days before a low-pressure system brings some relief on Friday. Accordingly, instead of highs reaching 100 degrees for much of the region, we should be down in the low- to mid-90s, along with some decent rain chances this weekend.

Wednesday

For today, however, we can expect widespread highs of 100 degrees away from the coast as the Houston region bakes beneath mostly sunny skies. Rain chances are about 20 percent along the coast this afternoon, and perhaps 10 percent for inland areas. Winds will be out of the south at about 10 mph, with higher gusts. The city will struggle to fall below 80 degrees tonight.

Thursday

More of the same.

Friday

An upper-level low pressure system will move into the area, and this will also bring a surge a tropical moisture. As a result we’re going to see a healthy chance of showers and thunderstorms. I’d put chances for areas east of Interstate 45 as high as 60 or 70 percent, whereas the potential for rain west of the freeway is probably closer to 50 percent. Accumulations will probably average a few tenths of an inch, but there will be pockets of higher totals. As a result of the rain and pattern change, highs on Friday may top out in the low 90s.

Saturday and Sunday

Rain chances of 40 percent, or so, will linger through the weekend but coverage should be less than on Friday. Skies should be partly to mostly sunny, and as a result we can probably expect high temperatures to reach the mid-90s.

Next week

Most of next week looks to see fairly typical weather for August. Climatologically, early-to-mid August often is the hottest time of year for Houston, so this means highs generally in the mid-90s for Houston, with warmer conditions for inland areas such as College Station. Rain chances won’t be zero, and there’s a chance we could see a mid-week system that will bring us some additional, much-needed rainfall.