Eric Berger

Happy New Year! The year 2023 has started out warm, but a front will arrive on Tuesday morning to bring more seasonal conditions back into the forecast. Ahead of the front, we have some concerns about the potential for thunderstorms and severe weather later today and tonight, but overall the dynamics are not too supportive for this.

Monday

With very warm conditions this morning, and lows only in the low 70s, we are seeing some sea fog developing again. This should burn off by mid-morning, leaving us with a cloudy day and highs in the upper 70s. Two things we’ll be watching for today: strong southerly winds and the potential for thunderstorms. The winds are pretty much a certainty, as the onshore flow responds to high pressure over the central United States. We’re going to see gusts up to 30 or 35 mph this afternoon. As for the storms, I’m guessing a capping inversion in the atmosphere will limit activity, but you should be aware that there is the potential for some storms to break through the cap later this morning and early afternoon. The potential for rain lingers tonight as lows drop into the upper 60s.

Tuesday

Our second chance for storms will come late tonight and Tuesday morning ahead of the actual cold front. A (broken?) line of showers and thunderstorms should push into areas northwest of Houston around 3 to 5 am, the metro area around 5 to 7 am, and off the coast by around 10 am. For some people, this will be the first day commuting back to the office for awhile, so be aware you may need some extra time due to the potential for storms if this timing is accurate. The skies will clear pretty quickly after the storms, so we can expect clear skies and highs in the low 70s on Tuesday afternoon with notably drier air. Lows drop to around 50 degrees on Tuesday night, with colder conditions further inland.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

Our weather settles down for the rest of the week, with mostly sunny skies and highs in the mid-60s to 70 degrees. Lows will generally be in the mid-40s through Thursday night before a warm-up heading into the weekend.

Saturday and Sunday

The high pressure system that will bring sunny weather during the second half of the work week will slide eastward by Friday, setting up a warmer and potentially wetter weekend. At this point I think Saturday will be mostly rain-free, with partly sunny skies and highs in the mid-70s. Sunday has a better chance of rain, perhaps 30 percent, and at this point I’d guess we’ll see mostly cloudy skies and highs of around 70 degrees.

Next week

I’m afraid there is not a whole lot of certainty in the forecast by around Sunday and beyond. I think the most likely scenario is that a cold front moves into Houston and essentially stalls, setting up a pattern of a few colder, and rainy days. But do I feel highly confident about such a scenario? I do not.

Looking ahead to the weekend of January 14 to 15, a few people have asked me about conditions for the Houston Marathon. At this point there is a decent signal in the global models for a slightly stronger front toward the end of next week, so I’m thinking we’ll see start line temperatures in the 40s. The good news is that right now it does not look too warm or too muggy. The bad news is that a forecast for 13 days from now is about as helpful as cramps at mile 20.

Good morning! It is remarkably warmer this morning across Texas and Louisiana, in some cases more than 30 degrees above lows from just 24 hours earlier. Aside from this dramatic warm-up, the big story for the next couple of days is our rain chances later today and tonight, and then mild conditions for the New Year’s holiday.

Thursday

Starting with lows around 60 degrees, we’ll warm up into the upper 70s today with mostly cloudy skies. With ample moisture in the atmosphere and an inbound disturbance, there will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms today, perhaps around 50 percent. But the greater chance of storms will come late this afternoon, evening, and during the overnight hours. These storms will be hit or miss, I think, with some areas picking up just 0.25 and inch of rain, but nearby areas seeing 2 or even 3 inches. Areas that see the heaviest rainfall may experience minor street flooding.

Friday

Rain chances likely end during the pre-dawn hours. A weak front will the slide into the region on Friday, so we likely will see partially clearing skies during the afternoon with highs in the low-70s. Winds will be light, shifting to come from the north. Lows on Friday night will drop into the low 50s.

New Year’s Eve

The final day of 2022 will be a fine one, with mostly sunny skies, moderately dry air, and highs in the mid-70s. Temperatures at midnight will be mild, about 60 degrees, with perhaps a few clouds in the air. Celebrate the new year outside, and safely!

New Year’s Day

The first day of 2023 will be a bit warmer, with highs in the upper 70s to 80 degrees, and partly sunny skies. Lows on Sunday night will only drop into the upper 60s, and perhaps only briefly.

Monday

This will be a wet, and potentially stormy day ahead of another cold front. Details are to be determined, but we’re likely to see 1 to 2 inches of widespread rainfall. The question is whether all of the dynamics in the atmosphere line up to favor severe storms, and for now I think the answer is that such conditions are more likely to the northeast of Houston, rather than over the city itself. We shall see. Otherwise expect highs in the upper 70s.

Rest of next week

Most of next week will probably see highs in the 60s, with lows in the 40s and 50s. There looks to be a fair amount of sunshine as well. So overall, the first week of 2023 looks to be fairly nice. Hopefully one might be able to say that about the whole year.

Holiday lights

We’re in the final days of being able to enjoy the holiday light shows at Space Center Houston and the Houston Botanic Garden. Here’s a review we wrote of these attractions earlier this year. You can find more information about each there, along with a discount code to save you $5 on each ticket.

Although it remains chilly this morning across the Houston metro area, with lows in the upper 30s and lower 40s, by this afternoon the last 10 to 12 days of frigid weather will be but a memory. Looking ahead, it probably will be at least a week before we see lows in the 40s again, and there is no likelihood of a return to the 30s any time soon.

Wednesday

Winds have shifted to come from the south, and they’ll pick up in intensity later today, gusting as high as 25 mph. This influx of warmer and more moist air will allow for a mostly sunny and warmer day, with highs in the mid-70s. Low temperatures tonight will only drop into the mid-60s.

Thursday and Thursday night

Building upon this moist air, an upper level disturbance will move into the region, bringing a chance of widespread showers and thunderstorms. I don’t have great confidence in how this will all play out, to be honest. I expect mostly cloudy skies on Thursday, with highs in the mid-70s. There will be a chance of scattered showers during the day time, but it looks like the more organized activity, if it develops, will do so overnight. There is a slight risk of heavy rainfall for the region, especially for areas east of Interstate 45, and for places like Beaumont and Port Arthur. Although we cannot rule out some isolated street flooding where such heavy rain falls, I don’t expect much of that. Note that these storms could be hit or miss, with some areas picking up less than 0.25 of an inch—particularly the western half of the metro area—and other areas 2 or more inches.

Friday

This should be a mostly cloudy day, with a high in the mid-70s. At some point a weak front will push into the metro area, and this will help to drop temperatures into the mid-50s on Friday night.

New Year’s Eve

This looks like a fine, mostly sunny day with highs in the mid-70s. The front will knock some of the humid air away. Conditions on New Year’s Eve look pleasant, with temperatures around 60 degrees by midnight, and at least partially clear skies. Rain is not a concern for any holiday celebrations. The start of the new year will be, dare I say, mild?

New Year’s Day

The first day of 2023 will be warm, with highs in the upper 70s to possibly 80 degrees, and mostly sunny skies. Overnight lows will only drop into the mid-60s.

Next week

The combination of more moist air and the next front will produce widespread showers on Monday, which will be another warm day. After that, look for pleasant conditions, with partly to mostly sunny skies, highs of around 70 degrees, and lows of around 50, for much of the week.

Good morning. After about 10 days of much colder weather, Houston will soon return to warmer conditions to end the year 2022. Today, in fact, will be the last chilly day of the year, after which highs in the 70s will persist into early 2023. We also will have two periods of rainfall during the coming week, but I think we’ll manage to squeeze out some fair conditions for the New Year’s holiday in between.

Tuesday

Lows have fallen to freezing, or near freezing, along and north of Interstate 10 this morning, but areas closer to the coast are generally in the upper 30s to around 40 degrees. Skies will be sunny today, with highs in the mid-50s. The most important change will come later today, as high pressure slides eastward, and our winds take a more southerly turn. This will mark a definitive end to the Great Christmas Cooldown of 2022. Lows tonight will drop into the low 40s in Houston.

Wednesday

Skies will be mostly sunny on Wednesday, with highs in the low 70s. Winds will be notable, out of the south at 10 to 15 mph, with gusts up to 25 mph. By Wednesday night we’ll see low temperatures falling just into the 60s, with a slight possibility of some fog.

Thursday and Friday

The end of this week looks wet, as increasing moisture levels from the southerly flow combine with an atmospheric disturbance to produce a healthy chance of rain. These should be mostly cloudy days, with highs in the low 70s. Rain chances look best on Thursday and Thursday night, but a chance will persist through the day on Friday. Overall accumulations look greater for the eastern half of Houston, but I expect much of the region to see at least 1 inch of rain, with some areas seeing 2 or more inches.

Saturday and Sunday

Fortunately, it looks like a weak front will clear things out for the holiday weekend. Right now I’m penciling in highs in the low to-mid-70s on New Year’s Eve, with partly to mostly sunny skies, and lows dropping into the upper 50s to 60 degrees by around midnight. Rain chances are pretty low, which is good news for revelers. Skies on New Year’s Day will likely be partly sunny, with highs in the mid-70s. All in all, the turn into 2023 looks fairly mild.

Next week

The weak front won’t last long, and at some point I expect clouds to return on New Year’s Day. This return of moisture will set the stage for another wet period—most likely on Monday January 2, but some uncertainty remains. This could easily bring another 1 to 3 inches of rain to the region before a front brings some moderately cooler and drier air into the region.