In brief: Houston will continue to see plenty of sunshine for the foreseeable future, with temperatures continuing on an upward trend through the holiday weekend. Next Monday will be downright hot before a front arrives to provide some relief. We also take a look at increasing drought conditions in the metro area and offer a slight hope for some relief.
Drought returns
About one year ago, after the torrid summer of 2023, 100 percent of the Houston metro area was in at least a moderate drought, and for more than 90 percent of the region we were in a severe drought, according to data from the US Drought Monitor. Those conditions were wiped away after a wetter fall and winter, leaving the region completely drought-free for much of this year. Now that’s starting to change.
Drought conditions as of Tuesday. (US Drought Monitor)
After dry conditions over the last couple of months, we’re starting to see drought conditions creep back into the area. About 70 percent of Liberty County, just to the east of Harris County, has now fallen into a moderate drought, and we’re seeing similar conditions to the northwest of Houston in Brazos County. Unfortunately, there won’t be much relief over the next several days. However there is a decent signal for rainfall about seven or eight days from now. We’ll see.
Friday
Skies today will be, you guessed it, completely sunny. We’ll see high temperatures of around 90 degrees for most of the metro area, with light northeast winds. Skies will be clear tonight—but alas, we think the northern lights that were visible in parts of the Houston region on Thursday night will be gone. Lows will fall into the mid-60s for most locations, with warmer conditions along the coast.
It will get warmer before it gets cooler. (Weather Bell)
Saturday, Sunday, and Monday
It will be a hot and sunny holiday weekend as high pressure builds over the area. Look for highs in the lower 90s on Saturday and Sunday, pushing up into the mid-90s by Monday. Rain chances are effectively zero. The air will be a bit muggier, but it won’t be full on Houston humid. Winds will generally be light. Lows will drop to around 70 degrees.
Next week
As we’ve been discussing, some kind of front will arrive by around Tuesday, and thereafter we should see cooler days (probably in the lower 80s at least) and nights in the 50s or lower 60s. There’s likely no precipitation with the front, but rain chances do appear to be elevated beginning Friday and running into next weekend. Whether that means daily rain chances of 30 percent or 60 percent I cannot say. But since we’ve been so dry, it represents our best rain chances in quite some time.
Have a wonderful holiday weekend, everyone. We’ll see you on Monday.
In brief: Sunshine, and more sunshine is in the forecast for Houston with slowly rising temperatures expected through next Monday. By then we’ll be in at least the low-90s before the next cool front pushes through. There is some rain in the forecast, but alas it remains more than a week away.
Cooler air is holding on for east Texas this morning. (Weather Bell)
Thursday and Friday
We’ll see a pair of sunny days with high temperatures around 90 degrees for much of the metro area. Winds will be generally light, from the northeast and east. Dewpoints will remain on the lower side, such that the air remains fairly dry on both days, so quite pleasant despite the warmer temperatures. Overnight lows will drop into the mid-60s for much of Houston, with warmer conditions right along the coast and slightly cooler ones for inland areas.
Saturday, Sunday and Monday
As the onshore flow gets rolling, temperatures and humidity levels will go up slightly for the weekend, which includes Columbus Day on Monday. Highs will be around 90 degrees, or a bit higher on Saturday, rising into at least the lower 90s by Monday. A few areas may even see highs in the mid-90s. Overnight lows will rise into the upper 60s for most. We’ll continue to see almost fully sunny skies, with rising humidity levels. So yeah, late summer comes roaring back for a brief appearance.
The rest of next week
A nice front is in the cards for some time on Tuesday, and this should cool our weather down for the rest of next week. I think we’ll probably see highs around 80 degrees, and lows in the 50s for much of the metro area, although the precise details are yet to be determined. There’s no rain in the cards for the front, but forecast models indicate that could finally change by Friday or Saturday of next week, as some clouds return and moisture levels in the atmosphere increase.
Hurricane Milton struck, and traversed the state of Florida on Wednesday night. The storm’s center passed just far enough south of Tampa Bay to prevent a catastrophic surge there, but the impacts to the Sunshine state will nonetheless be enormous. This is the third hurricane to strike Florida this summer. Beyond Milton there are no threats to land, thankfully.
In brief: Today’s post discusses our current cool front, and even stronger front next week, and when we might finally see some rain. We also discuss the recent controversy over “weather control” in regard to hurricanes Helene and Milton. Finally, there’s a link to vote for us as “Houstonians of the year.”
A few words about weather control
Before we get into the forecast—and there is a treat in the outlook for next week, with a nice front that should finally put the cool in cool front—I feel compelled to address the rise of misinformation spreading online about weather control. This problem has become especially acute in light of the terrible inland flooding from Hurricane Helene last month, and the impending landfall of what surely will be a highly catastrophic Hurricane Milton.
If you’re wondering what I’m talking about, Wired has a good rundown on some of these conspiracy theories. Essentially the claim is that, for political reasons, the US government is manipulating the weather to harm its political opponents. I want to be absolutely clear about this: Space City Weather is apolitical. We never talk politics because, frankly, no one cares what our politics are. The weather certainly doesn’t care. The sole point of this post is to address the question of whether weather control is possible, and if it is happening.
It is true that people have been trying to control the weather for a long time, for various reasons. The most prominent form of weather control is cloud seeding, in which aircraft introduce silver iodide into clouds to act as nuclei, and serve as a basis for condensation. This can lead to rain or snow. However, the best available evidence suggests the impact of cloud seeding is limited, perhaps increasing precipitation by 10 percent or so in optimal conditions.
Now comes the important part: There was no cloud seeding during Hurricane Helene, which produced extreme flooding well inland. None. Why would there be? It is in no one’s interest to increase the precipitation from a tropical system. Yes, there are government planes flying into storms. But those are NOAA hurricane hunters, gathering data about the storm to better inform you, and protect those in harm’s way. That is your government, working for you.
And what if they were cloud seeding? Because hurricanes are so large, any attempt to implement cloud seeding would be negligible. As for trying to modify where a tropical cyclone will go, there is no conceivable mechanism to do that. When we consider the steering currents that guide storms, we are talking about atmospheric forces that span continents, with energies that far surpass what humans can generate. If you tried to take our most powerful nuclear weapons and drop them in a hurricane to disrupt their movement, all you would do is spread harmful radiation.
Map showing the track of all tropical storms that passed within 200 miles of Milton’s formation point. Florida landfalls from this location are rare, but far from unprecedented. (NOAA)
Some people have questioned the movement of Milton, from west to east, across the Gulf of Mexico. That certainly looks strange, doesn’t it? Well, sure. But weather does strange things all the time. The movement of a hurricane from west to east across the Gulf of Mexico is not unprecedented, and in this case the meteorological reasons for Milton’s movement are well understood. The track of Milton was predicted many days in advance by weather models from organizations around the world. Are they all in on the game? Let’s be real. There is nothing artificial about the storm’s track.
In our comments yesterday, some readers asked about “chemtrails” or the “High-frequency Active Auroral Research Program” being used to modify or influence the weather. The bottom line is that no, this is not happening, and if someone nefarious wanted to use them to influence our weather, these kinds of interventions would be ineffective.
Here’s the bottom line. There are plenty of places on the internet where one find this sort of conspiracy-fueled nonsense. You can find “videos” to support almost anything, or “do your own research” and come to whatever conclusions you like. But Space City Weather is a website driven by evidence, and the best available science. If your intent is to weaponize misinformation about the weather, you’re not welcome here. All you are doing is making a miserable experience for people affected by hurricanes worse.
We have no agenda here but to try and put out the most accurate forecasts possible. That is the sole reason we show up every day. If Matt and I saw the weather behaving in an artificial way, we would be shouting from the rooftops. But it’s not. Helene and Milton are powerful hurricanes doing very bad things. A busy and destructive hurricane season was forecast this past spring, partly because the Atlantic Ocean is so very warm due to a warming climate. Unfortunately, that’s what we’re seeing play out.
It’s a cool morning for much of the northern two thirds of Texas. (Weather Bell)
Wednesday
Houston’s low temperature has fallen below 60 degrees this morning for the first time since April 23, which is 169 days ago. It’s been a long time since it has felt ‘crisp’ outside, but it does feel that way across much of the region this morning. With dewpoints in the 40s, the air feels mighty fine. This is our region’s coldest morning of the week, and probably our driest day in terms of humidity, but we’re not going back to sultry weather any time soon. Highs today will reach the upper 80s, with light northerly winds and sunny skies. Lows tonight will drop into the lower 60s for most of Houston, with outlying areas probably reaching the upper 50s again.
Thursday and Friday
Sunshine prevails, with fairly dry air and high temperatures of around 90 degrees. Lows will drop into the mid-60s in Houston, with cooler conditions for outlying areas.
Saturday and Sunday
The sunshine party continues, with more days with highs of around 90 degrees. Rain chances are zero. Dewpoints will be creeping up, but the air will still feel less humid than Houston typically feels in late summer. Nights will be a bit warmer, in the upper 60s for most.
Another front appears to be on the way next Tuesday, or so. (Weather Bell)
Next week
Monday looks to be fairly hot, with high temperatures probably peaking in the lower 90s. I think there’s a chance—don’t hold me to this, but I do think it is a distinct possibility—that Monday or Tuesday will be our final 90-degree day of this calendar year. That’s because a stronger cool front is in the cards for Tuesday or Tuesday night, and this could knock high temperatures down into the 70s by Wednesday. Most of the region could see some nights in the 50s, as well, so hello fall. Rain chances look low with the front, but there may be some better odds toward the end of next week. We’ll see.
In brief: Today’s update assesses the drier air in Houston’s forecast in the days ahead, our lack of rain, and when we will see yet another front. I also share some reflections on Hurricane Milton, which almost certainly will become a historic storm upon its landfall in a day and a half.
Tuesday
Winds are increasing from the north-northeast this morning, and we’ll see some gusts up to 20 mph this afternoon. This represents the main push of drier air into our region, and dewpoints will bottom out in the 40s later today. This will allow high temperatures to reach the upper 80s to 90 degrees this afternoon, but the drier air will also cool off more quickly this evening. Expect lows in the lower-60s for much of Houston tonight, with upper 50s possible for areas further inland, while the coast remains a little warmer. Skies will be sunny.
Low temperature forecast for Wednesday morning, which should be the coolest of the week. (Weather Bell)
Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday
It will start to feel like Groundhog Day as the forecast more or less repeats itself: Highs near 90 degrees, lows in the 60s, sunny skies. Dewpoints will start to slowly recover, but the air will continue to feel notably drier. Rain chances are zero-point-zero.
Saturday and Sunday
Expect more sunshine, with highs around 90 degrees and low temperatures in the upper 60s. Dewpoints will rise a little more, but humidity levels should still feel considerably lower than is customary in Houston. If you have outdoor plans, feel confident in them.
Next week
The pattern continues into next week, with perhaps a stronger front arriving around Tuesday or so. This one should drive daytime temperatures down toward 80 degrees, and nights possibly into the 50s. What it may not bring, unfortunately, is anything meaningful in the way of rain chances. I hope I’m wrong about that because we could really use some.
A few thoughts on Hurricane Milton
While there have been some fluctuations in the intensity of Hurricane Milton, it is a powerful Category 4 hurricane and remains on course to strike the west coast of Florida near Tampa on Wednesday night as a major hurricane. We have full and ongoing coverage on The Eyewall, but I just wanted to say a few words about how truly terrible such storms are.
Tuesday morning forecast track for Hurricane Milton. (National Hurricane Center)
As someone who lives relatively close to the coast, Milton reminds me most of Hurricane Rita, which blew up into a Category 5 hurricane in the central Gulf of Mexico 19 years ago. At about 72 hours before landfall, it appeared as though Rita would directly strike Galveston Island, and decimate the Houston area. As a homeowner and Houston resident, I felt truly awful—despairing, pit-in-the-stomach type of awful—as I thought about the consequences of such a storm for our region. Rita, of course, sparked the most deadly hurricane evacuation of all time before ultimately turning away from Houston toward southeastern Louisiana. Our forecast modeling was much more rudimentary at the time.
Hurricanes have impacts in three distinct waves, all of which are harrowing in every sense of the word. There is the immediacy of the storm: the violent winds and rains, the damage to homes and threat of loss of life. In the days following the storm there is the loss of power, the need for water, food, gasoline, and other essentials of modern life, and the slow process of getting help and picking up the pieces. And then there are the long-term changes: such as dramatically higher insurance rates, and a fundamentally changed and sometimes hollowed-out community.
Milton has the potential to bring all of that, and more, to the populous Tampa region with its 3 million people. There is still time for the storm to turn a bit. A track further south, even 50 miles into a less densely populated area, would make a huge difference. But time is running out for that.
