Eric Berger

In brief: You probably don’t need to check the weather forecast every day, at least for the next few days, as our pattern looks to remain fairly consistent. Houston will see typical temperatures for June, with a smattering of rain chances through the weekend. Next week could be a little more dynamic as high pressure shifts eastward.

High pressure, but not HIGH pressure

Houston remains largely under the influence of high pressure, expanding into the area from the southwest. But this is not a “death ridge” like we sometimes see later during the summer, when high pressure sits on top of the area and pushes temperatures up into the triple digits. As a result we are going to feel “June hot” for the foreseeable future, which is to say highs closer to 90 degrees than 95 degrees for most of the area. Rain chances will largely (but not completely) be squelched this week, but should improve to some extent next week.

Wednesday

I expect today to be a lot like Tuesday, with high temperatures in the vicinity of 90 degrees for most of the region. Skies should be partly to mostly sunny. Winds today do look a little bit stronger than yesterday, so we could see some southerly gusts up to 20 or possibly even 25 mph later this afternoon. I expect we will see some isolated showers and thunderstorms pop up this afternoon, but I would put chances at perhaps 10 percent or a only a touch higher. Lows tonight drop into the upper 70s.

Thursday and Friday

These days will be similar, with mostly sunny skies and high temperatures probably slotting in somewhere between 90 and 93 degrees. I think wind gusts will be a little bit lower, but rain chances a little bit higher. On Thursday, the Juneteenth holiday, there will perhaps be a 30 percent chance of rain, mostly during the afternoon, and maybe nearly that high on Friday. For the most part these should be quickly passing showers. Nights remain warm and humid.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend looks more or less the same: highs in the vicinity of 90 degrees, mostly sunny skies, and plenty of humidity. I do expect we’ll continue to see some afternoon showers and thunderstorms, driven by the sea breeze. But whether these are isolated, or reach the point where they hit say 30 percent of the area, I cannot really say with confidence.

Next week

At some point next week the ridge will shift eastward, and as this happens our atmosphere will open up to somewhat better rain chances. Whether this happens by Monday or Tuesday, or later in the week, is difficult to predict. Temperatures, regardless, should remain in the range of 90 degrees. And hey, the longer we get into summer without a sustained stretch of temperatures in the mid- or upper-90s, the better to me.

In brief: Overall our forecast is consistent for the rest of the week. We are going to see fairly normal weather for June, which is to say warm temperatures but not excessively hot. The humidity, of course, will be constant. And in a change from the last week our rain chances will go down significantly.

A stalemate in the atmosphere

Over the next several days we are going to see two competing impulses in the atmospheres overhead. To our southwest, a ridge of high pressure will be attempting to expand into Texas. At the same time, a few upper level disturbances will be attempting to slide down from the northwest. So what will happen? Mostly, I expect fairly tranquil weather through the weekend, with mostly sunny skies and warm—but not too hot—temperatures as we go through the longest days of the year. Although we will have some shower chances, increasingly it looks like the high pressure system will keep most (but not all) at bay.

Tuesday

Today should be sunny and warm, with a high temperature in the vicinity of the low 90s. Winds, generally, will be light in the range of 5 to 10 mph with some higher gusts. To the extent we see rainfall, the majority of it is likely to remain offshore. But we definitely could see a few showers and thunderstorms pop up this afternoon. For the most of us, however, no. Lows tonight will trop into the upper 70s.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

The rest of the week looks similar. If you squint, it’s possible to see some slightly higher rain chances on Thursday, maybe 30 or 40 percent. But these three days should all bring highs in the low 90s, mostly sunny skies, and warm nights. In terms of winds, Wednesday afternoon could get a little breezy, but overall things look pretty mild.

Saturday and Sunday

This pattern should persist into the weekend. Expect highs in the low 90s, a fair amount of sunshine, and perhaps a 20 to 30 percent chance of afternoon showers or maybe a thunderstorm.

Next week

There is some evidence that the aforementioned high should retreat a bit next week, opening us up to a bit better rain chances by Tuesday or Wednesday. That’s a week off so I don’t have much confidence. However the good news is that it does not appear as though we’re going to see a temperature spike into the mid- or upper-90s any time soon. (Note: This is not a taunt.)

In brief: After last week’s widespread showers and thunderstorms we expect more rain this week. But with the potential for flooding diminished, we are dropping our Stage 1 flood alert. Daily rain chances should also help keep highs in the vicinity of 90 degrees.

A week of rain, more to come

The region received a much needed dose of rainfall over the last week, with totals varying from 2 inches (generally in Katy and points west) up to nearly 10 inches (near Baytown). Most areas fell somewhere in between with a total of 4 to 6 inches. The rains were spread out enough that they did not cause too significant of flooding issues, which is not always easy to pull off in June, when rain can come down in bunches.

For the coming week we are going to see a ridge of high pressure attempt to build in from the south, but the Houston region should remain on its periphery. Generally, then, we can expect to see daily rain chances but probably not conditions as well organized as last week. So keep an umbrella handy, yes, but we are not too concerned about flash flooding. For this reason we are (finally) dropping our Stage 1 flood alert for the region.

Monday

Most locations, especially south and east of Highway 59/Interstate 69 will see some rain today. And we cannot rule out some stronger thunderstorms this afternoon which may drop up to about 1 inch. Skies will otherwise be partly sunny, with high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s, and fairly light winds from the south. Low temperatures tonight will only drop into the upper 70s for most locations.

Tuesday and Wednesday

Rain chances are lower during the middle of the week, due to the aforementioned high pressure, perhaps around 30 percent daily. I expect both of these days will see high temperatures around 90 degrees, or a tick or two higher, to go along with partly to mostly sunny skies. There is a 100 percent chance of mosquitoes after the last week or so of rains. I’m afraid they’re going to be bad, y’all.

Thursday, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

The end of the week is likely to see a pattern of partly sunny days and high temperatures in the low 90s. Highs will depend on whether it rains during the peak heating of the afternoon hours. And I do think it will rain. Each day will see around a 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, with “storm-o-clock” coming during the afternoon across the Houston region. If you have outdoor plans this weekend, I’m not anticipating a total washout, but you’ll want to have a thunderstorm contingency.

Next week

At this point it looks like this slightly unsettled pattern will continue into at least the middle of next week, with daily shower chances helping to keep temperatures at a moderate level (for Houston) in late June.

In brief: With the most potent rain-making storms now moving offshore, we are returning to a Stage 1 flood alert for the entire Houston region. Heavy rainfall remains possible on Friday, although we don’t expect storms to be quite as organized as they were today.

Hi everyone. Just wanted to write a quick post to note that the atmosphere is pretty well worked over, and that the strongest line of storms has now moved mostly offshore. As a result of this, we expect a fairly quiet afternoon and evening in the Houston metro area. We still expect to see some light to moderate showers for a few more hours today, but the trend will be one toward gradual clearing of the area.

If you’re looking for a bright spot, look no further than temperatures, which as of noon are hovering around 70 degrees for most of the region. We don’t see midday temperatures like this often in June. I expect highs to nudge upward, toward the upper 70s, before evening and slightly cooler overnight temperatures return.

I think conditions, in terms of rainfall, will generally be fairly calm overnight. However, by daybreak we may start to see some additional showers building in from the southwest, and we are likely to see another round of storms from the mid-morning through the afternoon hours across the region. I don’t believe these storms will be as widespread as today’s – in which some locations south and east of Houston picked up 6 inches – but the potential for heavy rainfall remains. We think a Stage 1 flood alert should cover us, but we’ll be keeping tabs on the situation just in case.