Eric Berger

In brief: The overall forecast remains the same. We’ll see hot and sunny weather for a couple of more days. Saturday still should bring a decent shot of rain into the region, especially for areas closer to the coast. Then we’re back to sunny and warm until some sort of front arrives early next week, perhaps on Tuesday. A little fall weather would certainly not be unwelcome.

Wednesday and Thursday

Clear skies and warm temperatures will continue for the next couple of days across the metro area. We’ll see nearly 100 percent sunny skies, with no chance of rain, through Thursday evening. High temperatures, for the most part, will be in the low 90s. Overnight lows will drop into the lower 70s for most locations not immediately along the coast. With dewpoints remaining in the 60s, the air will feel marginally drier than typical summertime conditions in Houston. Winds remain light, generally from the east at 5 to 10 mph.

Friday

We’ll start to see a few clouds by Friday as the upper-air pattern becomes more unsettled. However, skies will still be at least partly sunny, and rain chances are only likely on the order of 20 to 30 percent. For areas inland of Interstate 10, they’re even lower. High temperatures will reach about 90 degrees for most locations, or perhaps a touch warmer.

Saturday and Sunday

We should see more cloud cover for the first half of the weekend, as well as our best rain chances for the forecast period. Locations along and south of Interstate 10—closest to the source of moisture—will probably have about a 50 percent chance of showers during the daytime, with lesser chances further inland. I do not expect a deluge, but rather a series of scattered showers pushing through. Accumulations for most locations will likely be on the order of a few tenths of an inch of rain. Highs, due primarily to the clouds, should be in the upper 80s.

By Sunday we’ll be transitioning back to a more sunny pattern. However, I still expect to see at least some partly cloudy skies, with perhaps a 20 to 30 percent chance of rainfall. High temperatures will get back into the lower 90s.

Next week

Monday should bring more clear skies and high temperatures in the low 90s. However, at some point on Monday night or Tuesday, we should see the arrival of a front, with some drier and cooler air following it into the region. There’s still quite a bit uncertainty as to how much drier air will arrive, given that our region will be receiving a glancing blow from the front rather than a full on push out of the north. Nevertheless, I expect highs to at least drop into the 80s, with lows in the 60s. It’s possible we’ll get a bit cooler than this, but determining that six days out just isn’t possible with this kind of front.

Tropics

Although some sort of tropical system may develop in the central or southern Gulf of Mexico over the next week, it is not likely to have a significant effect on our weather in Texas.

In brief: Today’s update digs a little deeper into our lack of rainfall during the second half of summer, and whether we’re going to see relief any time soon. The answer is maybe, and that especially coastal areas have a healthy chance of rain this weekend. Then, by early next week, passage of a decent fall cool front looks increasingly likely.

Drying soils in late summer

Houston started out this summer with plenty of rain. You may remember Hurricane Beryl in July? But by the end of that month conditions turned notably drier. And but for a wetter spell in late August, the last two months have been quite dry. Our soils feel the lack of rain especially keenly during August and September, as these are often the hottest months of the year, which dries things out much more quickly. Looking at the last 60 days, we can see that much of the Houston area received less than 50 percent of normal rainfall, and some western areas less than 25 percent.

So far this has not resulted in drought-like conditions—something for which we can thank Beryl. However, in the latest update from the US Drought Monitor, the northern two-thirds of the Houston region are classified as being “abnormally dry.” This is just a step short of falling into a drought. I write all of that to say we could use some rainfall this month. Our next chance comes this weekend, but unfortunately it looks like the highest odds for rainfall will be closer to the coast, areas which generally are doing OK with rainfall. Would that I had better news.

Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday

Warm, but calm, weather will continue through much of this week. We can expect sunny days, high but not excessively so humidity levels, and sunny skies. Daytime temperatures will be in the low 90s, with overnight temperatures in the low 70s. Winds will be light all three days, from the north and east, typically not getting much above 5 mph. You probably won’t believe me, but we’re coming to the end of the time of year when we see long strings of 90-degree days, so if you like pool or beach time, this is a good week, and weekend for that.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

As noted above, our region will see some better rain chances starting Friday and lasting through the weekend. In the absence of high pressure, and with increasing levels of moisture in the atmosphere, we should see some clouds start to build on Friday, with partly to mostly cloudy conditions on Saturday, before more sunshine on Sunday. The models have gotten a little more bullish with rain chances for the weekend, especially on Saturday. However, you should set your expectations accordingly, especially if you live inland of Interstate 10.

My sense is that there is still a lot of uncertainty in the rainfall forecast so expect some change. However, if you live in a coastal county your chances of rain are probably higher than 50 percent on Saturday, and a bit lesser on Friday and Sunday. Further inland, along Interstate 10, rain chances are probably about 40 percent on Saturday, and the further you go from the coast, the lower things get.

High temperatures this weekend will be on the order of 90 degrees during the daytime, with a decent amount of humidity, and lows generally in the mid-70s.

Next week

Confidence is increasing in the arrival of a cool front early next week, likely some time on Monday or Monday night. It is not guaranteed, but there is now support in a lot of our modeling guidance for a decent push of drier and cooler air. I would expect mostly sunny weather next week, with highs in the 80s and lows in the lower 60s, but this is going to depend on the extent of the frontal push. A majority of the colder air with this system is going to get shoved east, rather than south, so we’ll have to wait and see how much relief we get. Despite those caveats, however, I’m optimistic. A little fall weather would hit the spot.

Tropics

There’s a lot going on out there, and if you want all the details we’ve got them on The Eyewall. But if you’re simply wondering, “What does this mean for Texas?” the answer is, not much. It’s been a week since we called a halt to the Texas hurricane season, and I still feel pretty good about that prediction.

In brief: Summer is not over. In today’s post we explain why the end of September has been very hot, and why that’s not going to change much this week. We’ll also take a look at the weekend forecast, when there are a lot of outdoor events in the metro area. Finally, could we see a real front next week?

Wake me up when September ends

Fifteen of the last sixteen days in September have recorded high temperatures of 90 degrees or higher. (On the single day that did not, the high reached 89 degrees). This has occurred despite a front coming through a couple of days ago.

Why has the daytime heat persisted? Partly because our early fall fronts tend to bring drier air, but not much colder air. So our days remain warm because drier air heats up more efficiently. The primary benefit of the front, however, is that it has taken about 10 degrees out of nighttime temperatures, which has been nice.

October is not going to bring immediate relief, but as our air modifies somewhat this week with higher humidity, we’ll see slightly cooler days by around Wednesday, and correspondingly warmer nights in the mid-70s. Later this month we can almost certainly count on more emphatic fronts to bring cooler daytime weather.

Monday

High temperatures today should, once again, reach the mid-90s for much of the metro area away from the coast (where highs will be a few degrees cooler). Skies will be sunny, with almost nary a cloud in the sky. Winds will be light, generally from the northeast. With dewpoints mostly in the 60s, the air won’t exactly feel dry, but it won’t be Houston-humid either. Lows tonight will drop into the low 70s for most locations.

Tuesday

A similar day to Monday, albeit with possibly a few more clouds in the sky.

Wednesday and Thursday

Expect more sunshine, with daytime highs generally in the low-90s, and nighttime temperatures in the mid-70s. Really, there’s not much more to say.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

So there are a lot of fairly big events in Houston this weekend, and a lot of eyes on the weather. On Saturday there’s the Komen Houston Race for the Cure in Sam Houston Park, as well as the Southern Smoke Festival in Discovery Green. What I can tell you right now is a forecast for what will probably happen, but not a forecast for what will absolutely happen.

Our atmospheric pattern will become somewhat more upset by Friday, opening the door to a few passing disturbances. Effectively, this means that we’re likely to see daily rain chances on the order of 20 to 30 percent during the Friday, Saturday, and Sunday period. Chances will be low- to non-existent for areas inland of Interstate 10, and at the higher end along the coast.

Friday and Saturday are likely to see partly sunny skies, whereas Sunday looks to be mostly sunny at this point. High temperatures will probably range from the upper-80s to lower-90s. The risk to the forecast is that the atmospheric disturbances are a little more pronounced than expected, leading to more widespread rain. But at this point the most likely outcome is a fairly warm, mostly rain-free early October weekend that feels more like late summer than early fall.

Next week

There is a fairly decent signal in the global models for a decent front to arrive on Monday or Tuesday of next week, but since I’m not yet certain on its passage I don’t want to give anyone false hopes. Needless to say, next week’s weather in Houston will be determined by whether said front makes it all the way through Houston.

Tropics

We’ve had lots of questions about the tropical blob in forecast maps from the National Hurricane Center. Yes, we’re continuing to keep tabs on it. No, there still is not any indication that an organized tropical system is likely to directly impact the Texas coast over the next week or 10 days. For more information, check out our post from Sunday.

In brief: After more than four months, Houston’s overnight temperature has once again reached 65 degrees, which we consider the threshold for a fall-like night in the city. Accordingly, we’re celebrating Fall Day today! Houston’s temperatures will warm up quickly, but our air will remain dry through the weekend. Rain chances are near zero for at least the next five days.

Yes, it’s Fall Day

The first half of this summer was moderate, temperature-wise. But some of this ‘cooler’ weather was driven by Hurricane Beryl, which uprooted many trees and led to a prolonged, widespread power outages. Then, for much of August (remember that stretch of seven straight 100-degree days?) and September, Houston has experienced warmer than normal conditions. So yes, we’re due for a break.

That came this week, in the form of our region’s second front. Low temperatures at Bush Intercontinental Airport fell to 64 degrees this morning, the first time since May 18 that the city has recorded a low of 65 degrees or below. We therefore decree today to be Fall Day in Houston, and I hope you take a moment to celebrate it outside. No, the weather isn’t going to be particularly cool. But the air will feel much drier than is typical during summer in Houston.

Friday

For a few hours this afternoon it won’t feel much like fall, as much of Houston is likely to climb into the upper 80s or even reach 90 degrees. But with dewpoints dropping into the lower 50s, the air will feel fine. Winds will be from the north-northwest at 5 to 10 mph, and skies will be clear. Low temperatures tonight will likely be a degree or two warmer than Thursday night, dropping into the upper 60s for most locations in Houston, with slightly cooler weather outside the city.

Saturday and Sunday

Expect sunny skies and warm days, with high temperatures in the low- to mid-90s. However, moderately drier air will take some of the sting out of the heat, and with lower humidity mornings and evenings will be pleasant. Expect low temperatures to drop to around 70 degrees. Rain chances are approximately zero percent.

Next week

Sunshine and warmth prevails through the first half of the week, with daytime highs generally in the mid-90s. This is pretty warm for late September and early October, but it’s being fueled partly by slightly drier air than normal. So while it will be hot, I wouldn’t characterize conditions as sweltering. Nighttime lows drop into the low 70s.

During the second half of the week we probably will see the onset of some more clouds, and some modest rain chances return to the forecast. At some point, perhaps over the weekend, another front will make a run at pushing all the way to the coast. I don’t have enough confidence in the forecast to predict when, but at some point within 7 to 10 days from now I’d expect cooler weather to return. We’ll see.

Tropics

After making landfall on Thursday night in northern Florida, Helene has pushed well inland and is now ravaging the southeastern United States with heavy rain and gusty winds. It’s creating an awful mess. As we look deeper into the tropics, the National Hurricane Center is calling attention to an area of low pressure in the southern Caribbean Sea that could eventually develop into a tropical storm. This is something we will, of course, be watching. However, there is no real indication at this point that an organized system is ultimately going to track toward the Texas coast.