Eric Berger

In brief: Houston will see a warming trend this week, with high temperatures eventually pushing near 70 degrees by Friday or so. We’ll also see plenty of clouds later this week, along with some modest rain chances from Wednesday onward. A strong front arrives on Saturday, and this will usher in a period of significantly colder weather next week.

Early post

Surprise! As I write this it is 5:15 am ET in the Orlando airport, and I am awaiting an early morning flight back to Houston. I’ve been up all night so this post will be fairly brief, but I wanted to dash it off before I pass out. It was an eventful night, with the debut launch of Blue Origin’s New Glenn rocket scrubbed during the final hour of a three-hour launch window. Alas.

Monday

After a chilly start this morning, we should see clearing skies and high temperatures in the mid- to upper-50s. Winds will be brisk, from the north, for much of the day adding an extra bit of chill. Lows tonight will fall to around 40 degrees in Houston. This is likely to be our coldest weather until next Sunday morning.

Tuesday

As winds shift to come from the northeast, we’ll see some more clouds in the sky, and this should limit high temperatures to the mid-50s. Lows on Tuesday night will only drop into the mid-40s as increased cloud cover provides a bit of insulation.

Wednesday and Thursday

As high pressure moves east we’ll see the southern portion of the Houston region become susceptible to a bit of rain. Don’t expect anything serious, but some areas south of Interstate 10 could pick up perhaps half an inch of rain, or a little more, during this period. Chances for inland areas are lower, perhaps just 10 or 20 percent each day. With partly to mostly cloudy skies, expect highs in the mid- to upper-50s. Lows will be milder, in the upper 40s mostly.

Friday

This will be a warmer day, with partly sunny skies and highs of about 70 degrees. Break out the shorts! However there will also be a decent chance of rain (again, mostly light) so this may not be a spectacular day all around. Lows on Friday night will only drop into the upper 50s.

Saturday

This will be another mild day, with highs near 70 degrees and partly sunny skies. At some point on Saturday, perhaps around noon, afternoon, or the evening, a cold front will push into the Houston area. This may bring an additional shot of rain, followed by stronger northerly winds that will really dry us out.

Sunday

The forecast for Sunday, and the Houston Marathon, is continuing to come into better focus. Low temperatures on Sunday morning are likely to be in the upper 30s or lower 40s, but it will feel colder with what is expected to be a fairly stiff northerly breeze. While there’s still the potential for some change, my advice is to prepare to bundle up. Skies should be clearing so I don’t anticipate precipitation being an issue. High temperatures may reach the upper 40s or 50 degrees before another cold night.

Next week

There are no bones about it, next week looks pretty cold. I do think we’re likely to see freezing conditions in the Houston metro area on at least one or two nights, but it remains to be seen whether we see a hard freeze (defined as 28 degrees F or below by the National Weather Service) in Houston. Several people have asked about the potential for snow, or a wintry mix next week. I do think it’s possible on Monday or Tuesday nights, but we just have to see how cold temperatures get, and whether we see any precipitation during these colder times. It’s something we’ll continue to keep an eye on, but it will be a few days at least before we have any definitive answers.

In brief: We’re posting on Sunday to provide a forecast for the Houston Marathon next weekend, as the outlook is coming into better focus. It looks decidedly colder in the wake of a front. Also, we wanted to let you know that Monday’s post will be later than normal.

Programming note

This is a special Sunday update due to the fact that we finally have increasing clarity about the forecast for a week from today, when tens of thousands of people will participate in the Houston Marathon, and more than a quarter of a million people will show up to volunteer and spectate. I’m so appreciative of everyone who is involved.

Also, I want you to know that Monday’s post could be a couple of hours late. Why? Because I’m presently in Florida for the launch of Blue Origin’s New Glenn rocket, and Matt is attending the American Meteorological Society annual meeting. Finally, we are sending a shout-out to the Houston Texans for the dominating playoff win on Saturday. The team showed up when it mattered most.

Weather this week

Houston faces a rather calm week of weather, with chilly but not exceptionally cold weather. Look for highs most days to be in the 50s or lower 60s, with lows around 40 degrees give or take. Skies will be partly sunny with low rain chances after today. Friday and Saturday look warmer, with highs perhaps around 70 degrees.

Previously we’ve written that the outlook for this year’s marathon on January 19 is uncertain due to the timing of a fairly strong cold front this coming weekend. Well, we now have less uncertainty in the timing and strength of this front.

Houston marathon forecast

Since we are still almost a week out from Sunday morning, there is still some wiggle room in the forecast. However over the last 24 hours most of our modeling guidance has come into good agreement. Most likely, a front will push through Houston some time during the day on Saturday, with the potential for some rainfall (nothing too crazy, probably). Then we’ll see colder air follow overnight with gusty winds in place on Sunday morning.

Assuming this timing is correct, and again take nothing for granted this far out, expect temperatures on Sunday morning to be in the upper 30s to lower 40s in downtown Houston. However, it will feel colder if winds are, as expected, out of the north and gusty. The apparent temperature may be down closer to freezing level. Conditions will probably not warm up a whole lot during the morning with additional cold air advection from the north, even if skies are clearing. The good news is that any rain will very likely have exited the area.

The rest of the week following the marathon looks rather cold, although just how very cold we cannot yet say. A freeze is definitely possible. See you tomorrow, albeit later than normal.

In brief: A coastal low pressure system will bring (mostly) moderate rain showers into the Houston area today and tonight. Although we don’t expect any significant flooding, this will be a wet, windy, and dreary day and night. Friday is colder and windy, followed by sunnier conditions this weekend. Sunday looks rather nice with highs of about 60 degrees.

Thursday

After cold, northerly winds since Sunday evening, Houston’s pattern will now change somewhat today as winds shift to become more easterly. This is due to the presence of a coastal low pressure system that will bring increased rain chances today and tonight. Pretty much everyone will see rainfall, but how much, and when?

I think we’ll see an initial pulse of light to moderate showers this morning, with perhaps a slight reprieve during the middle of the day. The best chance of moderate or heavier showers will come later this afternoon, and especially during the evening as a slug of moisture moves up the coast from the southwest to northeast. We should then see the potential for moderate showers through the night, and possibly into the morning hours on Friday. The system should exit to the east between sunrise and noon on Friday.

Most of Houston is likely to pick up 1 to 3 inches of rainfall, and we could see some heavier bullseyes for coastal areas. I do not think these rains will cause any significant flooding issues, and therefore I am not putting a Stage 1 flood alert into place. Additionally, in the Houston metro area none of this will fall as freezing precipitation (the story could be different north of Huntsville or College Station). But do plan to take a little extra time out there because it will be fairly wet later today and tonight.

Temperatures will be in the lower 50s closer to the coast, and in the 40s further inland. The cold weather will be compounded by a strong easterly wind which may, at times, gust as high as 30 mph. So all in all, not a fun day or evening to be outside.

Friday

After the coastal low departs, we’ll see increasing northwesterly winds, and this will usher in another push of colder and drier air. So Friday will be a cold day, with highs in the lower 40s, and breezy conditions adding some wind chill on top. As skies clear out we’ll see ideal conditions for cold weather on Friday night, and much of the Houston area should see one more freeze. It will be light in Houston, but some areas in Montgomery County and to the northwest of Houston may see a hard freeze.

Saturday and Sunday

After the chilly start, the rest of the weekend looks sunny and warmer. Highs on Saturday should reach about 50 degrees, with nighttime temperatures a few degrees above freezing in the metro area. Sunday will be mostly sunny and warmer, with highs of around 60 degrees. Time to get back in the pool?

Next week

Most of next week looks to be slightly warmer, with highs in the 50s to lower 60s, and low temperatures in the vicinity of 40 degrees. This is fairly typical weather for mid-January. We’ll see a mixture of clouds and sunshine. As we head toward next weekend highs may climb toward about 70 degrees. There’s still a fair bit of uncertainty about weather for the Houston Marathon on Sunday January 19, as it looks like a front will be trying to come through next weekend. Temperatures, and any rainfall, will depend on the timing and strength of that front. Right now I’d ballpark start line temperatures at about 50 degrees, but there remains a wide variance in possibilities.

In brief: Houston is not done with the colder weather, but our low temperatures will now moderate slightly for the next couple of days. As a coastal low pressure system approaches we’ll see increased rain chances on Thursday, and the potential for heavy rainfall Thursday evening and during the overnight hours into Friday. Sunshine returns on Friday.

Wednesday

Temperatures, generally, are in the mid- to upper-30s across most of the Houston region this morning. This is due in part to increasing cloud cover, which will also limit high temperatures today to the lower 40s. It will still feel quite chilly outside, however, as winds from the north gust up to 20 mph. So although we’re done with freezing temperatures for a bit, the brisk conditions are not going away. Lows tonight will drop into the upper 30s again for much of the region.

Thursday, Thursday night, and Friday morning

By Thursday morning we’ll start to see the possibility of light showers developing across Houston, and this pattern will continue through much of the day. With high temperatures in the mid-40s (even warmer near the coast) there is no threat of freezing rain or sleet in the Houston area. It appears as though the main impulse of showers and storms, due to a low-pressure system in the Gulf of Mexico, will move in on Thursday night. The best chance for heavy rain will therefore occur during the overnight hours, and closer to the coast. Much of the area is likely to pick up 2 to 4 inches of rainfall, with higher isolated totals possible. This system should push east of the area by Friday morning, (mostly) bringing an end to rain chances before noon.

Friday

Another pulse of colder and drier air will push in as the coastal low exits, and Friday looks to be a breezy and cool day with mostly cloudy skies and temperatures in the 40s. With skies likely to start clearing out on Friday night, expect a chilly night, with parts of Houston likely seeing a light freeze again, and far inland areas possibly experiencing a hard freeze.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend should bring mostly sunny and milder conditions back to Houston. Expect highs of around 50 degrees on Saturday. Lows on Saturday night should remain comfortably above freezing, with highs on Sunday possibly reaching as high as 60 degrees.

Next week

We’re not going to warm up much next week, with highs likely in the 50s and lows in the 40s. There’s still not a whole lot of clarity for the Houston Marathon forecast. I expect next Friday and Saturday to see a warming trend, but there’s a chance another front comes through by or before Sunday morning to cool things down. Of course a front could mean rain so yeah, the forecast remains uncertain.