Eric Berger

In brief: Houston may see some short-lived thunderstorms this morning ahead of a front. But the real weather story is likely to be gusty, very dry winds that will increase the potential for wildfires this afternoon and evening. Please take care with open fires. After that we have a mostly spring-like, mostly pleasant week ahead of us.

Red Flag warning

Nearly all of the metro area, save for areas east of Baytown, are under what is known as a “Red Flag” warning today after 10 am CT. This indicates the potential for fire danger due to strong winds and very low humidity. By late morning we will see westerly winds sustained to about 25 mph, and gusts up to 40 mph or potentially higher along with a front that is moving in. During this time you should avoid open flames and take care with cigarettes. Winds should begin to slacken this evening.

Tuesday

Houston faces the potential for one, or possibly two, thin lines of storms this morning ahead of a cool front. Although these storms are unlikely to be severe within the metro area of Houston, we cannot rule out some briefly strong thunderstorms. (The odds of severe weather are greater to the northeast of Houston, in locations such as Livingston). The last of these storms should clear the area by or before noon, with most locations picking up a few tenths of an inch of rain. Temperatures ahead of the front will be in the 70s for the most part with plenty of humidity. However, this humidity will sharply drop after the front, hence the Red Flag warning.

Rodeo forecast

The Houston Livestock Show and Rodeo kicks into high gear today, with the first concert of the season in Reba McEntire. This is a forecast you’ll want to pay attention to, because although you won’t have to worry about storms, winds will peak during the mid- to late- afternoon hours above 20 mph, with gusts of 40 mph or higher possible. These winds will have died down somewhat after the show is over. Temperatures will be about 70 degrees heading into the show, falling to the lower 60s by the end of the concert. Lows will fall into the low 50s by Wednesday morning in Houston.

Wednesday and Thursday

These will be a pair of sunny, calm days with highs in the mid- to upper-60s. Wednesday night into Thursday morning will be the coldest one of the week, with lows dropping into the mid-40s in Houston, and cooler for inland areas. Thursday night will be several degrees warmer as a southerly flow returns.

Friday

This day should bring cloudy skies back into the forecast, and highs approaching 80 degrees. There will be plenty of humidity as well. Lows on Friday night will fall to around 60 degrees.

Saturday and Sunday

A cold front will arrive on Saturday, perhaps during the morning hours. Most of our guidance indicates this front will be dry, but at this point we cannot rule out the possibility of a few showers and thunderstorms. Saturday afternoon likely will see clearing skies, highs in the 70s, and breezy northerly winds. Overnight lows drop into the 40s in Houston.

Sunday looks sunny and very pleasant, with highs in the mid- to upper 60s. Expect another night in the 40s, probably.

Next week

We’ll be fairly warm next week, with highs likely pushing into the lower 80s. It should be some of our warmest weather of the year so far. Overall rain chances look fairly slight for much of the week.

In brief: Today’s post reviews the winter that just ended in Houston, and assesses how well the forecast did. We also look ahead to the (slight) possibility of storms on Tuesday before a pleasant spring-time week takes hold in Houston.

A review of winter 2024-2025

From a climate standpoint, winter runs from December 1 through the end of February. From a practical standpoint, winter in Houston roughly lasts from that period as well. This year, it almost certainly does, as winter is effectively over in Houston. I’m highly confident the region will not see another freeze this season, and reasonably confident that low temperatures are unlikely to dip into the 30s again for most of the metro area.

So now that winter is over, let’s take stock in what went down. The average temperature (the daily high and low, divided by two) over the last three months has been 56.8 degrees. This is above the historical mean of 55.2 degrees, and this winter ranks 31st of out of 133 years of records. If we look at the long term trend in the average temperature, it looks like this:

Now let’s dig into each of the three months a little bit more closely to see what we can see. As you may recall, December was quite warm. The month finished with an average temperature nearly 6 degrees above normal. The second half of the month did not feel winter-like at all. Do you remember our muggy Christmas weather?

January started out warm as well, but then conditions turned much cooler. During the second half of the month Houston experienced its first Arctic outbreak of the season, with temperatures plummeting all the way down to 20 degrees on one night. As a result of this colder weather, Houston finished January with an average temperature for the month 4.4 degrees below normal.

All of which brings us to February. The first third of February was exceptionally warm. We broke or tied four daily records for high temperatures in Houston, and some of our nights saw record warmth as well. But then the middle of the month was defined by the season’s second Arctic outbreak, with a few nights in the 20s. Despite this colder weather, February still ended with an average temperature a little more than 2 degrees above normal.

How did the forecast do?

We issued our winter outlook four months ago. We forecast a relatively mild winter, with temperatures above normal. However, we included this caveat:

However—and there’s always a but in meteorology, it seems—there is one caveat to this forecast. Because of the way this pattern sets up, it will block much of the colder Arctic and Canadian air from the lower United States for most of the winter. But that does not exclude the pattern breaking one or two times. If that happens, and it probably will at least once this winter, there will be a large pool of much colder air available to dip down into the southern United States, including Texas

Essentially, that’s what happened. Houston had a mild winter punctuated by a couple of strong bursts of very cold weather. And now, we’re on to spring.

Monday

After days and days of sunshine, we’re seeing mostly cloudy skies today. Despite a warmer overall flow, these clouds should help limit high temperatures to the mid- to upper-70s for most locations. We will also see a slight chance of light showers throughout the day, but mostly skies will just be gray. As on Sunday, we’ll see some gusty southerly winds, likely picking up to 25 mph or so this afternoon. Lows tonight will only dip into the upper 60s.

Tuesday

As a front approaches, we’ll see increasing rain chances after midnight, and throughout the morning hours on Tuesday. By around 8 to noon we may see a broken line of showers and thunderstorms develop and push through the area. Although we cannot entirely rule out the possibility of some severe weather, the dynamics favoring strong storms are more favorable to the northeast of the region, where there is a slight risk of storms. Most of Houston will likely pick up a few tenths of an inch of rain. Any lingering rains should end by around noon, with much drier air moving in behind. Temperatures will be in the 70s.

Beginning tomorrow, we’ll have daily forecasts for the Houston Livestock Show and Rodeo, but my main concern is northerly winds. They may gust up to about 30 mph on Tuesday afternoon and early evening before settling down. So, quite literally, hold on to your hat. Lows on Tuesday night will drop into the 50s.

Wednesday and Thursday

These will be a pair of sunny and mild days. We’re talking highs generally in the mid-60s. Expect lows on Wednesday night in the 40s, and on Thursday in the 50s. We should have zero weather concerns during the middle of the week.

Friday

We should see the return of some clouds along with a warmer flow on Friday, with highs in the mid- to upper-70s.

Saturday, Sunday, and beyond

The weather on Saturday will be determined by the timing of a cool front, which likely will push through during the daytime. This may produce a slight chance for some showers, but I expect mostly sunny skies with highs in the 70s. Sunday looks to be sunny, and cooler, with highs in the upper 60s maybe. Most of next week looks mild, with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s, so the watch word is “mild.”

In brief: Although there will be differences in humidity and nighttime lows, Houston will predominantly see high temperatures in the 70s for the next week or so. This period will include some absolutely gorgeous weather days, including Friday and Saturday of this week. We are watching for the possibility of some storms with a front next Tuesday.

Thursday

Houston is experiencing its warmest morning in weeks, with low temperatures generally only in the lower 60s across the metro area. However, a modest cool front is on our doorstep, and it will move into the region today. As a result we will see partly to mostly cloudy skies, although likely no rain showers. Highs today will be slightly cooler, in the mid-70s. Cooler and drier air pushes in this evening, allowing low temperatures tonight to fall to around 50 degrees in Houston.

Friday

This will be a truly splendid day, with high temperatures in the low 70s, light northerly winds, and fairly dry air. Like, it will be just about perfect. Friday night will be cool again, with lows in the lower 50s.

Saturday

Expect more sunshine on Saturday, with high temperatures a bit warmer, in the upper 70s for much of Houston, but possibly the lower 80s for a few inland areas. With a more southeasterly flow, lows on Saturday night will only drop into the mid-50s.

Sunday

Another day with mostly sunny skies. Highs will likely be a few degrees lower on Sunday, in the low- to mid-70s, with perhaps a few clouds arriving during the afternoon hours. There will be a slight chance of rain on Sunday night into Monday morning, but only a slight one. Beginning on Sunday we are also likely to see a more pronounced southerly wind, so conditions could be a bit gusty at times. Lows on Sunday night should remain in the 60s.

Next week

Monday and Tuesday of next week look to bring cloudier and more humid weather, with highs in the upper 70s to possibly lower 80. We’re starting to see some indications that a cool front next Tuesday or Tuesday night may bring with it a chance of storms as it rumbles through Houston. At this vantage point we don’t really have many details or any certainty, so we can’t say much more. But it is something we’ll keep an eye on as that’s the opening night of the Houston Livestock Show and Rodeo. After the front’s passage we’ll see high temperatures in the—you guessed it, 70s—and cooler nights.

In brief: Tuesday brought gorgeous weather into the region, and if you missed it fear not, there is more to come. We’re going to see continued mild conditions and sunny skies through much of the weekend as spring marches into Houston and hangs around for awhile.

Wednesday

There is less widespread fog this morning, but it is still present in some locations so take a little extra care on roadways. Beyond the fog, we’ll see sunny skies today with high temperatures likely in the mid- to upper-70s. Winds will come from the south at 5 to 10 mph with moderate humidity levels. So basically, really really nice outside. Lows tonight will fall to around 60 degrees in Houston, with slightly cooler conditions further inland.

Thursday

A modest front will sag into Houston beginning Thursday morning, and pushing into the city by around noon. This will be most noticeable with the increased cloud cover. Although I cannot rule out some light showers, I don’t think most of us will see any rain. Highs Thursday will be in the low- to mid-70s, with drier air arriving in time to push lows on Thursday night down to around 50 degrees in Houston.

Friday

This is going to be a splendid day, with high temperatures around 70 degrees, low humidity, light winds, and lots of sunshine. This could be a top-10 day in terms of weather this year in Houston. Friday night will again see lows near 50 degrees in Houston.

Saturday

For those who like conditions a little bit warmer, Saturday will also be excellent, with plenty of sunshine and highs in the upper 70s. Winds will again be light, but as they shift to come more from the offshore, Saturday night will be warmer, with lows only falling into the mid-50s or so.

Sunday

We’ll see some clouds on Sunday, which may help limit highs in the mid-70s. It will also feel a bit more humid out. Lows on Sunday night will only fall into lower 60s for most, so a bit of a warmer night.

Next week

Monday and Tuesday look warmer, with partly sunny skies and highs near 80 degrees. We’ll also flirt with some Houston-like humidity on Tuesday. However, a front arrives later on Tuesday or Tuesday night, and this should usher in some cooler weather for the rest of the week. The front may also deliver some showers, but the signal for this is not overly strong.