Eric Berger

In brief: In today’s post we reveal the new design and content for our flood scale. We have made changes based on research conducted by the University of Houston. Although rain chances will increase later this week, we also anticipate no need to use the new flood scale any time soon.

Updated flood scale

This morning we are pleased to announce an update of our flood scale, which is intended to help guide expectations for people in the greater Houston region when it comes to the potential for flooding. We first introduced our flood scale in 2019, after Hurricane Harvey, and have used it dozens of times since then. But we really did not understand how people were using it.

Now, with the help of some researchers from the University of Houston, we do. A professor of
Psychology, Steven Paul Woods, reached out to Matt a couple of years ago, and together they and one of his doctoral students, Natalie C. Ridgely, worked to perform a study of the scale and whether it was effective at communicating risk. Later this morning we will publish a summary of the study, and its results, written by Woods and Ridgely. (Here it is).

As a result of this study, we have made some changes in the structure of the scale to simplify it, and added recommended actions. Reliant provided a cleaner design. What thrills me the most is that this scale was created here in Houston, and improved by local researchers who care about this community just as much as we do. It is by Houston, for Houston.

Our new scale appears below:

Tuesday

Well, we won’t need the flood scale today. With high pressure firmly in place, Houston is going to have one of its hottest days of the year. With sunny skies, look for high temperatures to push into the upper 90s across most of the region away from the immediate coast. Some inland areas may reach 100 degrees. Winds will be very light, from the west mostly. Lows tonight will only drop into the upper 70s.

Wednesday

This will be another hot and mostly sunny day, with highs in the upper 90s. However there will be a couple of subtle differences. One is that dewpoints may drop into the mid-60s across the region. This is not “dry” in any great sense, but these dewpoints are lower than normal for this time of year. So humidity will be lower than we have been often experiencing this summer, especially for inland areas. There also will be a very slight chance of showers later on Wednesday afternoon or evening.

Thursday and Friday

Low pressure stretching across the Gulf will bring increased rain chances into the area for several days. On Thursday and Friday the likelihood of rain will be somewhere between 30 and 50 percent, with low-end accumulations for most. Depending on the timing of rain (if any) highs will vary between the low- and upper-90s, with partly to mostly sunny skies.

Saturday and Sunday

Better rain chances will arrive this weekend, with both days bringing about a 50 percent likelihood of showers. For now we don’t see too much of a risk for really heavy rainfall, and my expectation is that most locations will pick up between 0.25 and 0.5 inch of rain. Since this is summer and tropical rainfall is possible, we’ll be on the lookout for higher totals, but for now this looks more like a splash of rain rather than a deluge. Highs will generally be in the low- to mid-90s with partly sunny skies.

Next week

The first full week of August does not look to be excessively hot. Temperatures probably will be in the mid-90s for the most part, with a smattering of daily showers driven by the sea breeze. Beyond that, we shall have to see.

In brief: Today’s post discusses the historical depths of summer, which occur over the next two weeks. However, while we will see considerable heat the next couple of days, increasing rain chances should help to take the edge off summer heat through the weekend.

Depths of summer

Look, it can be really hot in Houston any time from April through October. And historically we have seen 100-degree weather as early as June 2, and as late as September 27. But the very warmest period of the year, based on climate statistics, comes from July 29 through August 12. This is when the region’s high temperature averages 96 degrees. By August 13, the average high drops to 95 degrees, and by the end of the month we’re down to 93 degrees. So we’re here, at the peak of summer in Houston.

And do you know what that means? If you squint, you can see fall in the distance.

Monday

After several rounds of showers over the weekend, which included some flooding just east of downtown Houston, our weather will now quiet down for a few days as high pressure builds over the area. We will see that in the form of sunny skies today, with high temperatures in the upper 90s for inland areas, and lower 90s for coastal areas. With that said, I would not entirely rule out of a few scattered to isolated showers later this afternoon or evening along the sea breeze. Winds will be light. Lows tonight will be sultry, and in the mid-70s.

Tuesday

This will probably be the hottest day of the week, with sunny skies and high temperatures in the upper 90s for most of the region. However, dewpoints look to be slightly lower, so while the humidity will be high, it may not be oppressive. Rain chances are near zero. Expect another warm night in the mid-70s.

Wednesday

At this point I think high pressure will still largely influence our weather on Wednesday, so we can probably expect mostly sunny skies and highs mostly in the upper 90s. At the same time, we are going to see growing amounts of tropical moisture pooling to our east out over the Gulf, and this will bring higher rain chances during the second half of the week. So maybe we should splash in a low-end chance of a few showers.

Thursday and Friday

Skies will still probably be partly to mostly sunny to end the work week, with high temperatures generally in the mid-90s. However, as low pressure (the risk of this becoming a tropical depression or tropical system is near zero, so we’re not particularly concerned about that) drifts toward Texas across the Gulf, it will bring increased moisture levels into the coast. This will likely yield rain chances of about 30 to 50 percent for both days.

Saturday and Sunday

We should remain in this pattern of elevated rain chances through the weekend, with a 50 percent likelihood of showers each day. At this point I don’t expect the weekend to be a total washout, and there still should be periods of sunshine on both days. But temperatures should be a couple of degrees cooler (some areas may top out in the lower 90s). Overall accumulations look fairly modest. Most of the area may see something on the order of 0.5 inch of rain, but there probably will be higher bullseyes. All in all, for the peak of summer, it won’t be terrible as Houston moves into August.

Next week

I think we will see a continued chance of showers on Monday and perhaps Tuesday before things high pressure asserts a little more control next week. However, at this point I think we’re likely to remain the 90s rather than pushing up into the 100s.

Tropics

Things look very quiet out there for the next week or so, and quite possibly beyond. This is a great position to be in as we edge toward the month of August. Longtime residents will know that the next two months are, traditionally, “go time” for Texas and the tropics. So we will be watching things very closely.

In brief: In this morning’s post we discuss the end game for the tropical disturbance in the northern Gulf, look ahead to elevated rain chances on Friday, and then see what high pressure will bring us next week.

Invest 93L

As expected, the tropical disturbance in the northern Gulf of Mexico (aka Hurricane TikTok) is moving steadily westward and nearing the far eastern end of Southeastern Louisiana. The center of the storm continues to hug the coast, which has limited intensification, and thus this system remains poorly organized. The odds of it becoming a tropical depression or storm have been lowered to 30 percent this morning, and even this seems a little generous to me. It should move into Louisiana later today or tonight, bringing a chance of heavy rain to that state. Impacts to Texas will be minimal, although parts of our area will see increased rain chances on Friday as a result of atmospheric moisture related to this system.

Thursday

If you liked the weather on Wednesday you are in luck, because today will be pretty much the same. We may see a few more clouds this afternoon, but high temperatures should still reach the mid-90s for most locations with plenty of humidity. Winds will be light, generally from the south. Low temperatures tonight will drop into the upper 70s.

Friday

As atmospheric moisture levels rise due to the influence of the tropical disturbance, we will see an increase in rain chances on Friday, but how much will depend on how far east you live. If you are east of Interstate 45 I would put the odds of rainfall at about 50 percent or higher, and to the west I’d say considerably less than 50 percent. Overall accumulations likely will be in the 0.5 inch for areas that receive rain, but with the tropical moisture there could be higher bullseyes. It’s notable that the Weather Prediction Center (see below) has lowered the likelihood that any part of the Houston metro area will see excessive rainfall. Highs will reach the upper 80s to lower 90s due to increased cloud cover.

Saturday

Skies will be partly sunny on Saturday, with highs generally in the lower 90s, as atmospheric moisture lingers in the region. Rain chances will be about 30 percent, higher again to the east of our region. Accumulations look slight. Overall if you have outdoor plans I would be cautiously optimistic.

Sunday and next week

High pressure begins to build in by Sunday, and this should set the stage for sunny and hot weather for awhile. Most of next week should bring high temperatures in the mid- to upper-90s, with perhaps a 10 percent chance of afternoon showers driven by the sea breeze. It’s late July. It’s Houston. You have been warned.

In brief: In today’s post we take a quick temperature check on TikTok, which seems hot and bothered about the possibility of a hurricane hitting Houston. In the real world, we discuss the forecast for the week ahead, which includes an elevated chance of rain on Friday from a tropical disturbance that is almost certainly going to move into Louisiana.

The TikTok hurricane

On Tuesday evening one of my daughters said “everyone” on TikTok is talking about a hurricane coming to Houston this weekend. At first, I thought it must be a few pot-stirrers, because nothing could be further from the truth. Why? Because:

a) There is no hurricane

b) A tropical system that probably won’t develop much is probably not coming to Texas

c) There is no credible basis on which to make such a forecast right now, like none

So we sat down and she showed me some of the videos. (Full disclosure, I just turned 52 years old, and I have only dabbled on TikTok. It’s just not my thing. If it’s yours, that is totally fine. I am not shaming anyone who likes TikTok or creates content there). I was blown away. The amount of misinformation is staggering, and these videos are being watched 100,000s of thousands of times, with this huge influential reach. It was to the point where my daughter was seriously concerned about the possibility of a hurricane coming to Houston, and asked me what we should do about it.

I have no desire to try and take on the Chinese government or ByteDance and its algorithm. I realize that misinformation is rampant across social media, not just TikTok, and that people are knowingly and unknowingly spreading it for various reasons. But it frustrates me because this kind of content spreads anxiety, which for some people is crippling; and the inevitable false alarms will only sow doubt and uncertainty when the time comes to take real forecasts seriously.

So with this post I just wanted to reiterate that Space City Weather will never play these games. We are not chasing clout. We aspire, above all things, to be boring and have boring weather to write about. We also acknowledge that we are far from perfect. We will make mistakes in our effort to predict the future, but they are honest mistakes and believe me, Matt and I agonize over them. In short, we are always going to try and bring you the truth about the weather as we see it. In 2025, that mission seems to be more vital than ever. So we fight on. We will do our utmost. I fear it will not be enough.

Wednesday

As pressures rise and atmospheric moisture levels fall, today should be mostly sunny in Houston with virtually no chance of rain. Instead it’s going to be a classic mid-July day with plenty of humidity, and high temperatures in the mid-90s. Winds will be light, from the south at 5 to 10 mph with slightly gusty conditions during the afternoon hours. Lows tonight will drop into the upper 70s.

Thursday

A day similar to Wednesday, although there is a slight chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms along the sea breeze. Chances are 10 to 20 percent.

Friday

An increase in atmospheric moisture, related to the tropical disturbance in the Gulf, will bring a better chance of rain on Friday. These rains should be concentrated most heavily over Louisiana, and there is likely to be sharp gradient to the west approaching Houston. That is to say, there will be a line west of which rain is unlikely. Where will that line be? Interstate 45 is a decent guess, but the line could also be closer to Beaumont. The map below shows the best guess from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center. My sense is that areas along and east of Interstate 45 have a decent chance to pick up 0.5 to 1 inch of rain on Friday, with lesser amounts to the west. But this forecast is very much written in pencil right now. Any winds and surge from the tropical system should not be impactful in the greater Houston region. Expect highs of around 90 degrees with mostly cloudy skies.

Saturday and Sunday

A decent chance of showers will linger into Saturday, perhaps about 40 percent, but this day should bring partly sunny skies back into the forecast with highs in the lower 90s. By Sunday high pressure should be taking hold, so rain chances should reach closer to zero, with mostly sunny skies and high temperatures in the mid-90s.

Next week

Most of next week looks hot and sunny, with highs in the mid- to upper-90s. Rain chances will be quite low for much of the week, although the upper air pattern could change toward the end of the week to bring precipitation back into the forecast. We shall see.

Invest 93L

So what really is happening with the tropical system? Not a whole lot. The ‘center’ has crossed the Florida peninsula, but it remains close to the Florida Panhandle this morning. This proximity to land will not help with any efforts to develop. Over the next day or so the center should remain very close to the northern Gulf coast, limiting development. There is a non-zero chance that some sort of center organizes further south today, and this would allow for more strengthening. However that appears fairly unlikely. Probably, the low pressure system will continue to track more or less west before moving into Louisiana on Thursday night or Friday, bringing an high chance of rain. The National Hurricane Center continues to indicate there is a 40 percent chance of a tropical depression or weak tropical storm forming before landfall.

Some of the models that were advertising extreme rainfall totals in southern Louisiana have backed off some. However, this is still a favorable setup for heavy rainfall so flooding along and south of Interstate 10 in Louisiana is a distinct possibility.

As ever with tropical systems there is inherent unpredictability, especially with systems that have yet to develop a well-defined center of circulation. But time is running out for Invest 93L to surprise us.