Eric Berger

In brief: In this post we take a brief look back at the Francine forecast and some of our exasperations, and then look ahead at a period of much hotter weather. Summer is not over yet, and we’ll discover that this weekend.

A brief word about Francine

Here at Space City Weather we try to get things right. We don’t always succeed—this year we were surprised by a derecho, and our early forecasts for Hurricane Beryl missed the mark. But our commitment to readers is that we’re always going to tell you what we think, in a straightforward manner, without hype or tricks.

Which brings me to last Monday afternoon. I had just hit ‘publish’ on a post about Francine, in which we continued to predict the tropical system would remain far enough offshore to preclude serious impacts for Houston specifically, and Texas in general. Almost immediately after that story went up on the website, we started to get questions here, on Facebook, and by email about a western “shift” in the forecast. Apparently some media outlets and popular social media accounts were reporting on this, suggesting serious impacts were possible in Texas from Francine. Initially, I was stumped. I certainly wasn’t seeing that prospect in the model data.

It turns out this was a reaction to a very slight change in the official track forecast from the National Hurricane center. I bring this up, because I saw something Thursday from hurricane scientist James Franklin that reveals just how slight this shift was. The map below shows a plot of landfall forecasts from the National Hurricane Center over the 78 hours prior to landfall. I’ve added an arrow to highlight the western “shift” in the track that caused all of the commotion:

The trend over the weekend had been an eastward one, and there was no model data at the time suggesting a huge shift back toward Texas was imminent. And as you can see, during the very next forecast cycle, the official forecast shifted to the east, and more than wiped out the earlier change. Somewhat exasperated, I touched on this topic in a post at 10 pm that same day.

Why were Matt and I exasperated? Every storm is different. With Francine coming along just a couple of months after Beryl, Houston residents were understandably sensitive to the possibility that Francine would not turn away from our area. Emphasizing this “western shift” played on those concerns. We also recognize that after all of the crazy, wild, and destructive storms, freezes, heat waves, and more that we’ve had in just the last decade, Houston residents can live on pins and needles when inclement weather threatens. The very last thing we want try to do is exacerbate those fears.

Friday

Enough about storms, let’s talk about sunshine. There will be plenty of that this weekend, and beyond, as high pressure more or less asserts control over our weather. Since we’re now into mid-September, with shorter days and a lower sun angle, temperatures are not going back into triple digits, but it will still be plenty hot.

Highs today will reach the mid-90s for much of Houston, except for coastal regions, which will see highs a few degrees lower. Skies will be sunny. Winds will be light at only a few mph, from the west. There won’t be much relief overnight, with low temperatures generally falling into the mid- to upper-70s. So yeah, welcome back summer.

Saturday and Sunday

Expect more of the same, with mostly sunny skies, light winds, and temperatures in the mid- to upper-90s for inland areas. The coast will be a bit cooler during the daytime. Overnights lows will remain warm, in the upper 70s. Could we see a few rogue thunderstorms? Maybe. But I’d put chances at about 5 percent, so probably not.

Next week

The first half of the week will start out with highs in the mid-90s, and perhaps a 10 percent chance of showers on Monday and Tuesday. However, after that we should see temperatures back of slightly, into the lower 90s. Rain chances remain low, with mostly sunny skies, for the remainder of the week, and probably next weekend as well. Our next chance of a front comes in about 10 to 12 days time, but at this point it’s closer to a hope than a certainty.

Tropics

There’s nothing to see here. After writing a lot the last 12 days about Francine and other weather, we’re taking the weekend off. See you on Monday.

In brief: Following a period of rainy weather, a cool front, and some lower temperatures due to the passage of Hurricane Francine, Houston is going back into the mid-90s this weekend. Moreover, pretty much all of next week looks fairly hot and sunny. It won’t be August-hot, but after a taste of cooler temperatures it will be plenty hot.

The return of summer

It may be difficult to remember, but not all that long ago Houston recorded seven straight days of 100-degree temperatures. That period of peak summer ended 21 days ago. That’s when, during the last week of August, we started to transition into a rainy pattern, with high temperatures of around 90 degrees or below most days. Then we got our first fall front, and the passage of Hurricane Francine allowed the trend of cooler days to continue into this week.

As a result the Houston region has had about three weeks of cooler than normal days (nights have been more in line with climate normals, except for a few nights after the front). Well, I hope you’ve enjoyed it. Because high pressure is back, baby, and it’s bringing summer with it. We’re not returning to the days of 100-degree temperatures, but we are going to jump back into a period of substantially hotter days. I’m not sure when it will end.

Thursday

Today will be something of a transition day, with high temperatures of around 90 degrees or a bit higher. We should start out partly to mostly cloudy in the morning, but by afternoon we should see clearing skies and light northwest winds. Lows will drop into the lower 70s for most of the metro area.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

There won’t be much to distinguish these days. All three should see mostly sunny skies, with temperatures solidly in the mid-90s for most locations away from the coast. This is fairly warm for mid-September in Houston, but certainly we often see these kinds of warm stretches this month. It’s not as bad as August, but it’s still pretty hot, and sometimes excruciatingly so in September as we eagerly await the onset of fall. But for those who like summer, and I know there are some of you thermophiles out there, this is a good opportunity for water outdoor activities before things cool off. Nights will only drop into the mid-70s. Humidity will be pretty high, but not as high as it gets during the peak of summer. Rain chances will be close to zero over the weekend.

Next week

The ridge retreats a bit next week, and this may allow for some slight rain chances on Monday, maybe in the 20 percent range. Still, most of next week looks pretty sunny, and highs are going to be in the low 90s most days, with the possibility of a few mid-90s here and there. So yeah, pretty hot and mostly rain-free probably. Our next front may be in the cards about 12 days from now, but I wouldn’t bet on it.

Tropics

Francine has moved inland, and while there are a lot of tropical blobs out there, right now it looks as though none of them are coming toward the Gulf of Mexico. We just need that pattern to hold on for a few more weeks…

In brief: Francine is making its closest approach to the Houston area this morning, but remains a non-issue for the state of Texas. We’ll see one more cloudy and somewhat cooler day, with a chance of showers, before summer returns for a spell. We look to be solidly in the 90s for awhile after today.

Francine status

Francine has substantially increased in intensity overnight, reaching 90-mph winds. It should become a Category 2 hurricane before reaching the Louisiana coast this afternoon or evening. The storm will bring serious impacts to major populated areas of the state, including Baton Rouge and New Orleans. We will provide continuing coverage of these impacts on The Eyewall.

Locally in the Houston area, the impacts have been minimal. The storm’s center is now making its closest approach but is still more than 150 miles off the coast from Galveston. We have seen some slightly elevated winds—there was a single gust of 38 mph in Galveston last night—but for the most part sustained winds even along the coast have been 15 to 20 mph. For all practical purposes it has been a non-event locally.

Wednesday

We’ll see mostly cloudy skies today, and that will help to keep high temperatures in the mid-80s. We’ll continue to experience north-northeasterly winds from the hurricane’s passage, and at times these could produce gusts of 20 to 25 mph. However, there will be nothing too out of the ordinary from this. Finally, we’ll see some scattered, mostly light to moderate showers throughout the day today. But overall rain chances for any given location are probably 50 percent or less. Low temperatures tonight will drop into the low 70s.

Thursday

Due to rains in late August and early September, and then the passage of Hurricane Francine, the Houston area has experienced a stretch of mostly 80s-days in terms of temperature. But just as a reminder, we’re still in September, and summer is not in fact over. We’ll be reminded of that, beginning Thursday, as the mercury starts to climb again. Highs will reach about 90 degrees, with mostly sunny skies and plenty of humidity. Lows will drop into the mid-70s.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

The weekend looks hot and sunny, with high temperatures in the low- to mid-90s. This will be due to Houston falling under the influence of high pressure. A very slight chance of rain returns to the forecast by Sunday, but it’s probably only 10 or 20 percent.

Next week

Houston could see a weakness in the high pressure system by the early part of next week, which could bring perhaps a 30 percent chance of showers for a few days. But for the most part of next week I expect partly to mostly sunny skies, with highs in the low- to mid-90s. There is a chance of a front about 12 to 14 days from now, but only a chance.

Tropics

Beyond Francine the National Hurricane Center is starting to track more potential areas of development. However, at this time I don’t see any particular threats to the Gulf of Mexico. For this time of year, that’s a great place to be.

In brief: This is a short post to wrap up our coverage of Tropical Storm Francine, which as expected is having a negligible effect on Texas as it remains well offshore. We also take a look ahead at potential tropical activity over the next 10 days or so.

Francine forecast

As of late this afternoon, Tropical Storm Francine is located due east of the mouth of the Rio Grande River, about 135 miles off the coast. This is about as close as the storm is going to get to Texas as it has assumed a northeastward movement that will take it toward the Louisiana coast. Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center expect the storm to reach the south-central coast of Louisiana by Wednesday afternoon as a Category 1 hurricane.

We have been, and will continue to cover the implications of Francine for Louisiana on our sister hurricane website, The Eyewall.

Houston-area impacts

Not much. We’ve seen some sporadic showers today, and that will continue tonight and into Wednesday morning. Inland winds will not be far above normal levels, and even along the coast I don’t expect gusts to exceed 35 or 40 mph, which is not something to be overly concerned about. Tides will run 1 to 3 feet higher than normal tonight and Wednesday morning.

All of this, to the extent that there is anything, will be gone by Wednesday afternoon. The main impact from Francine for Houston is lower temperatures, with highs in the mid-80s today and Wednesday. We’ll be back in the low- to mid-90s soon, so enjoy this.

What’s next in the tropics?

In short, not much we need to worry about. The National Hurricane Center is tracking a couple of areas of low pressure in the Central Atlantic Ocean. However, none of the reliable models bring either of these systems, if they develop at all, toward the Gulf of Mexico. Beyond that, the Gulf of Mexico looks pretty quiet for the next ten days. We’re getting closer to the end of the tropics season for Texas, which is great. But we’re not there yet.