Eric Berger

In brief: A robust front will bring much drier air into the Houston region today, and a couple of chilly nights in the upper 40s. After that Houston will likely experience warmer weather for the rest of March: think 80s with some humidity rather than the 70s we’ve had for much of the month. Summer is not here, but it is on the horizon.

Wednesday

Temperatures across much of the metro area this morning are in the range of 65 to 70 degrees, which is rather warm for mid-March. It’s also fairly sticky outside. However, this will end later this morning, as a fairly strong front moves into the area. We’ll feel this both in the form of northwesterly winds, gusting up to 20 or 25 mph, as well as much drier air. As skies clear out later today, with the drier air, expect high temperatures in the vicinity of 80 degrees.

Unfortunately for rodeo-goers, those winds will not let up much this evening. In fact, they should peak during the overnight hours, perhaps gusting up to about 30 mph. So be prepared for that. Temperatures after the show will be in the 60s, before lows tonight ultimately drop into the mid- to upper 40s for much of the metro area away from the coast.

Thursday

This will be a sunny and pleasant day, with low humidity and highs of around 70 degrees. During the morning hours, at least, we should still see some modestly gusty winds. However by the afternoon these winds will likely slacken. Thursday night will be chilly again, with much of the region likely dropping into the upper 40s. Will this be the last time that parts of the Houston region get into the 40s this season? I think that’s quite possible.

Friday

Expect a sunny, pleasant day with highs in the mid-70s. Winds will turn southerly, gusting at times up to 20 mph. Expect overnight lows to only reach about 60 degrees with the warmer, southerly flow.

Saturday

The first half of the weekend brings more sunshine, with highs around 80 degrees. Dewpoints should still be in the 50s, so it will not feel too humid outside. Yet. Lows on Saturday night only drop into the mid-60s.

Sunday, Monday, and next week

With a more humid flow, expect temperatures to reach into the lower- to mid-80s on Sunday with likely increasing cloudiness. The question then is to what extent a slug of drier air will slide down from the northeast into the region. This is known as a “backdoor” front because instead of blowing down from the northwest, it edges in from the northeast. It’s likely that this system will generate a decent chance of rain, perhaps on the order of 50 percent during the period of Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. Accumulations don’t look that high, probably on the order of tenths of an inch.

Temperatures on Monday and Tuesday will depend on the extent to which the backdoor opens, and the amount of cooler and drier air that moves in. Perhaps we’ll have a couple of days in the 70s, with lows in the upper 50s. Maybe it will be a tad warmer. Most of the rest of next week should see highs in the 80s, however, with a decent amount of humidity. So it goes in Houston as we get nearer the end of March: fewer fronts and more humidity.

In brief: Expect winds to whipsaw across Houston for the next few days as we go from a southerly flow to a northerly flow and back to a southerly flow between now and Friday. Overall, temperatures continue to look mild, with Thursday looking to be a splendid day.

Tuesday

Low temperatures have only fallen to about 60 degrees this morning, and we are going to see warmer weather for a couple of days. The southerly flow will be especially pronounced today, with a tight pressure gradient causing winds to reach sustained levels of about 20 or 25 mph, with gusts up to 40 mph this afternoon. Highs will reach about 80 degrees this afternoon, with a few clouds developing later today.

If you’re headed out to the rodeo, you’ll want to hold on to your hat. Look, I realize I’ve already used that joke this year, but it’s been windy, ok? Although winds may slacken just a bit, they’re still going to be pronounced this evening, along with temperatures in the 70s. The influx of moisture will help keep overnight lows in the upper 60s.

Wednesday

Wednesday morning will be fairly warm and humid, with mostly cloudy skies. Winds should also have finally died down. But it won’t last as a front sweeps in from the northwest during the late-morning hours, likely reaching the coast around noon or shortly after. There is the barest chance of some rain along with the front on the east side of Houston, but I expect a dry passage for nearly all of us.

Highs will be in the upper 70s with sunny skies during the afternoon. And the winds—they’ll have reversed direction, and we can expect gusts of around 20 mph during the daytime, increasing to about 30 mph on Wednesday night. This will create “red flag” conditions for at least western areas of the region, meaning the winds and dry soils will be conducive to wildfires. With the drier air, lows will drop to around 50 degrees on Wednesday night in Houston.

Thursday

This looks to be a splendid day, as it lies in the period between a frontal passage and the return of the onshore flow. Look for highs of around 70 degrees, light winds, sunny skies, and low humidity. Lows on Thursday night will again drop to around 50 degrees in Houston, with cooler conditions for inland areas.

Friday

Another sunny day, with highs in the low 70s. However we’ll likely see some modestly strong southerly winds. Lows only drop into the lower 60s with the warmer southerly flow.

Saturday, Sunday, and beyond

After temperatures mostly in the 70s this week, this weekend and beyond will likely see a warmer pattern, with highs in the lower 80s. We may see one or two weak fronts in the extended forecast, but overall, we should see warmer days and mild nights. Alas there is not a huge signal for rainfall, which we could use right now.

In brief: This week will bring plenty of sunshine and wind as the region veers through spring. Highs most days will be in the range of 75 to 80 degrees, with some particularly nice weather expected on Thursday. The first half of the weekend looks sunny, but we could see some clouds by Sunday to go along with some slight rain chances.

Spring-time winds

The wind we experience at the surface is due to air moving from high pressure to low pressure, and the bigger the difference, the greater the breeze. During the summer in Houston, we often talk about the sea breeze. This is because the air over land heats up faster than water during the daytime, lowering the air pressure at the surface. (Warm air rises). Since the air pressure is lower at the surface over Houston, air moves in from the Gulf.

The winds we experienced on Saturday, as a cold front moved in, were different. They were moving from north to south, following the influx of a low pressure system (front) at the surface. The more rapid the pressure change, the stronger the wind. This is what we mean by a “tight” pressure gradient. I bring all of this up because we’re going to see several “tight” gradients this week that will lead to winds whipsawing back and forth across the area.

Monday

Sunday was an absolutely gorgeous day in Houston, certainly a top-10 day of the year. Monday will be similar, although not quite as nice (in my opinion, of course). Highs today will reach about 80 degrees with plenty of sunshine, but this will be marred by southerly winds of about 10 to 15 mph, with gusts up to 25 mph this afternoon.

If you’re heading out to the Houston rodeo this evening, or celebrating St. Patrick’s Day elsewhere, we have no weather concerns aside from the breeze. Temperatures this evening will be in the lower 70s, with clear skies. Lows will be in the upper 60s after the show, and with the warmer southerly flow we probably will only drop to around 60 degrees in Houston overnight. Some inland locations will be cooler.

Tuesday

This should be another mostly sunny day, with high temperatures near 80 degrees. But as the pressure gradient tightens, we’ll see some fairly strong southerly winds at 20 mph, with gusts up to 30 or possibly even 35 mph. This southerly flow will bring humidity back into the region, and give us a warm night in the 60s with increasing cloud cover.

Wednesday

High temperatures on Wednesday should reach around 80 degrees, or even a bit higher in Houston. This is because a cold front is likely to pass through the area during the late morning hours, bringing in drier air (which heats up more efficiently). Expect northwesterly winds during the afternoon, gusting up to 20 or 25 mph. Lows on Wednesday night will be around 50 degrees.

Thursday

At this point, Thursday looks to bring exceptional weather back into the forecast, with highs in the 70s, sunny skies, and light winds.

Friday

By Friday we’ll probably see offshore winds kicking back up, so expect a breezy day in the 70s with rising dewpoints.

Saturday, Sunday, and beyond

What does the weekend hold? Saturday should be mostly sunny, with highs of around 80 degrees. With a southerly flow in place expect a warm night, with lows in the 60s. As for Sunday, I’m a little less certain. We should see more clouds, highs around 80 degrees, and with increasing moisture there’s a possibility of some showers. (We could use some rain, but this isn’t going to do much to address drying soils I’m afraid). It’s likely that a weak front pushes into the area on Sunday night or Monday, but I’m not confident in the details.

In brief: It has been 136 days since the city of Houston officially recorded a 90-degree day, back on October 27. Today, that may change. Parts of the region will hit likely hit 90 degrees. But that does not mean spring is over. Most of the next 10 days, including this weekend, should continue to bring beautiful, spring-like weather.

Thursday

After patchy fog clears this morning we should be left with sunny skies. The combination of a warm southwesterly flow and a bit of drier air will allow high temperatures to pop up today, with much of the Houston area in the upper 80s, and locations to the west and southwest of the city likely reaching 90 degrees. Only the coast will remain at about 80 degrees. Winds at the surface will, generally, be light at 5 to 10 mph from the southwest.

If you’re heading out to the rodeo this evening be sure to get there early, because a good friend of our family will be singing the national anthem to kick things off. It will be warm this evening, in the mid- to upper-80s. Temperatures will have fallen into the 70s after the show is over. Low temperatures tonight will only fall into the upper 60s for most of the metro area.

Another consideration for tonight’s weather is the lunar eclipse. Totality, at which point the Moon is tinted a coppery red, lasts from 1:26 am CT to 2:31 am CT. Unfortunately skies will likely be partly to mostly cloudy. However, there should be some breaks in the clouds that will allow for visibility of the celestial phenomenon.

Friday

With partly cloudy skies on Friday, and more pronounced southerly winds, high temperatures should be a few degrees cooler, probably in the mid- to upper-80s for most of the region. Given that a cold front is unlikely to push through Houston before Saturday morning, I expect another warm night on Friday, in the mid-60s.

Saturday

The frontal passage looks to be a dry one, but we cannot rule out a few showers on Saturday morning. However skies will quickly be turning sunny, and northerly winds at about 15 mph, with higher gusts, will be usher in lower humidity. Look for high temperatures around 80 degrees, with lows on Saturday night dropping into the mid-50s in Houston, with cooler conditions for inland areas.

Sunday

Expect a truly splendid day, with highs in the mid-70s, sunshine, low humidity, and light winds. This will be a top-10 day in Houston this year, weather-wise. Lows on Sunday night may push down near 50 degrees.

Next week

Monday should be in the 70s again before we push up near 80 degrees on Tuesday and Wednesday. Skies should remain mostly sunny throughout. A front on Wednesday will probably knock us back into the 70s for the second half of the week. If you’re wondering about precipitation, we could see a decent shot of rain about 10 days from now. We’ll see.