Eric Berger

In brief: Happy Fourth of July! We have hot and sunny weather on tap for the holiday to celebrate the birth of America, and Friday will be hot as well before rain chances increase due to the movement of Hurricane Beryl into the Gulf of Mexico this weekend. It still appears as though the system will track well to the south of Houston, with the only major impact being the potential for rain.

Thursday

High pressure will remain in place for a couple of more days, and that means mostly sunny skies and soaring temperatures in early July. Look for highs today in the upper 90s for much of Houston, away from the coast, with generally light southerly winds. There will be about a 10 percent chance of showers this afternoon along the seabreeze. By the time of fireworks this evening, temperatures will still be in the upper 80s, at least. Lows tonight will only fall to about 80 degrees.

Friday

Another day a lot like Thursday.

Saturday and Sunday

The forecast for the weekend and next week is predicated on the outlook for Hurricane Beryl, discussed below. Our confidence is increasing in this forecast, but it is possible there are still some subtle changes. Anyway, skies should be partly sunny on Saturday, with perhaps a 50 percent chance of light to moderate rainfall. Temperatures still have a chance to hit the mid- to upper-90s for some inland locations. Sunday will see partly to mostly cloudy skies, with highs in the low- to mid-90s. There is, again, a healthy chance of light-to-moderate rainfall.

Next week

The remnants of Beryl, and tropical moisture from another disturbance, should bring mostly cloudy skies and lower temperatures for much of next week. Daytime highs probably will be in the range of the upper-80s to lower-90s. Each day will have a medium to high chance of rain, with the potential for tropical downpours. In terms of rainfall accumulations, I’m not seeing any extreme signal that will lead us to issue an alert on our Space City Weather flood scale, but that could change. Overall, I expect much of the area to pick up 2 to 4 inches of rain next week, although that remains a first-order approximation at this point.

Hurricane Beryl

The hurricane is weakening in the face of moderate wind shear, with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph as of 7 am CT. It will reach the Yucatan Peninsula on Friday, and emerge into the Gulf of Mexico on Friday night, likely as a weak to moderately strong tropical storm. Beryl will then have about two days over the southern Gulf of Mexico to strengthen. Seas are plenty warm, but there will be at least a bit of wind shear. Most modeling guidance brings a strong tropical storm or Category 1 hurricane to the western Gulf coast by around Sunday night. We’ll have to see about that.

In terms of track, the most likely landfall position remains somewhere within 50 or 100 miles south of the Texas-Mexico border. However, because this landfall remains about four days into the future, uncertainty remains. It is possible the storm could track more northward, and make landfall along South Padre Island or a bit further up the Texas coast; or further south, in Mexico near Tampico. Regardless, for Houston, the primary impacts are likely to be increased rain chances. For more information on impacts to Mexico and Southern Texas, please see our latest updates at The Eyewall.

We’ll continue tracking all of this today, and if anything significant changes we’ll update the site. If not, we’ll see you on Friday morning.

In brief: The forecast for Hurricane Beryl and Houston remains more or less on track, which is to say the storm is still expected to go far enough south that it will not produce serious wind and surge impacts in Houston. We continue to watch the possibility of tropical rain next week.

Just a quick update on Wednesday afternoon to point out that our forecast from this morning on Hurricane Beryl, which currently as 140 mph sustained winds and is lashing Jamaica, is more or less on point. In fact, the data we’ve seen today from our most-trusted models continues to provide confidence in a track predicted by the National Hurricane Center. Their outlook brings a strong tropical storm or Category 1 hurricane to the northern Mexico coast, 50 to 100 miles south of Texas, on Sunday evening or Monday morning.

We are still four to five days out in terms of a track forecast, so there are no absolutes here. But the fact that we’ve seen a convergence in modeling today, particularly in a track forecast from both the European and GFS models, gives me further confidence that Beryl, with its winds and seas, will likely not be much of a factor in Houston’s weather next week.

There is still the potential for heavy rainfall, particularly during the Monday through Wednesday timeframe. My sense is that the most likely scenario is that much of our region will pick up 2 to 4 inches of rainfall, with higher bullseyes. But I do not have as much confidence in the precipitation forecast, and certainly we cannot preclude the possibility of intense tropical rainfall and flooding in the Houston metro area. For now, however, we have no plans of issuing an alert on our flood scale. We’ll continue to monitor things, of course.

The bottom line is that Beryl is probably going south, and making a final landfall in northern Mexico. There will be some impacts for South Texas, including the possibility of inland flooding. As ever with tropical weather, forecasts can change. We’re just getting closer to the point where we can definitely say they won’t in regard to Beryl and Houston.

I’ll have a full update on Houston’s weather for you tomorrow morning, on the Fourth of July.

In brief: Houston will be hot and sunny for the next couple of days, with only some scattered shower chances. The forecast begins to change this weekend, as Hurricane Beryl moves into the southern Gulf of Mexico. After that there are a lot of questions about what happens next, and this post attempts to address them as best we can.

Some thoughts on Beryl-mania

I want to start today’s post with some thoughts about Hurricane Beryl and hurricane season anxiety. In the last day or so Matt and I have been flooded with questions about this storm and its potential to impact the greater Houston area. Is the hurricane coming here? Will we flood? Are we going to see storm surge? How damaging will the winds be? There is just a ton of noise and chatter out there, and I want to say two things about it.

First, we don’t have the answers to a lot of the questions being asked. There are no absolutes in a five-, six-, or seven-day hurricane forecast. However, as I’ll discuss in the forecast below, it remains likely that significant wind and surge impacts from Beryl will go south of the Houston area. We’re most closely watching for increased rain chances next week. That doesn’t mean the forecast can’t change. But as we’ve been saying for a couple of days, in the big picture Beryl is likely to move inland into Mexico or South Texas, far from Houston. If our thinking changes on that, we’ll shout it from the rooftops.

Second, it’s going to be a long season, y’all. I get it. Beryl is a pretty ominous storm, because its intensity and rapid intensification are wholly abnormal for late June and early July. We’ve never seen this with a tropical system before, and it underscores the notion that this will be a hyperactive Atlantic hurricane season. However, the Texas coast has about three more months during which we are going to have to pay close attention to the tropics. Almost certainly there will be bigger threats than Beryl to Houston this summer, and times for great anxiety. This is not one of them.

Put simply, this is a marathon and not a sprint.

So please trust us when we say this: If you need to be concerned about a tropical system—like stocking-up-at-the-grocery-store or preparing-to-evacuate levels of concern—we are going to let you know as soon as possible. We just haven’t seen that signal yet from Beryl.

Wednesday

The story for the next couple of days will be one of heat as a high pressure ridge mostly holds sway. High temperatures will be in the mid- to to upper-90s through Friday or Saturday. Today we’ll see mostly sunny skies, with light southerly winds. There will be the usual smattering of afternoon and early evening shower chances along the sea breeze, but any showers that develop should be fairly scattered.

Thursday and Friday

These should be the hottest days of the upcoming forecast period, with highs in the upper 90s except for coastal areas, which will be a few degrees cooler. Skies will be mostly sunny with only perhaps a 10 or 20 percent chance of showers this afternoon. The only concern for fireworks on Thursday, the Fourth of July, will be temperatures which should still be sultry and in the upper 80s shortly after sunset.

Saturday, Sunday, and beyond

Rain chances will increase starting Saturday, and then persist through much of next week. From this point forward our weather will be guided by the track and evolution of Hurricane Beryl, and the potential for a trailing tropical system (Invest 96L) that may bring some additional moisture into Texas later next week. If I had to make a forecast for the weekend, I’d go with partly sunny skies and highs in the mid-90s on Saturday, with the potential for showers; and partly sunny skies on Sunday, highs in the low-90s, and perhaps a 50 percent chance of rain. I do think the better rain chances, and any potential for flooding, will hold off until at least Monday.

Hurricane Beryl

Beryl remains a very powerful hurricane this morning, with 145-mph sustained winds and a central pressure of 952 mb (which is rising, an indication of some slow weakening). It will pass near, or strike the southern edge of Jamaica today, exposing the entire Caribbean island to severe winds, heavy rains, and a large storm surge. This is a reasonable worst-case hurricane for the island, which will be subject to both coastal and inland flooding, in addition to major damage from winds.

Beryl is forecast to weaken as it crosses the Caribbean Sea later this week as it encounters some wind shear, before reaching the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Thursday night or Friday morning. It is likely to be a Category 2 or Category 3 hurricane at this time, although there is some uncertainty in this. As it passes over land, Beryl should weaken further before entering the Gulf of Mexico later on Friday.

So what happens then? For Texas residents, that is it the big question. And there are a range of possibilities. Based upon my interpretation of the various hurricane models we could see everything from a tropical storm moving inland into the Mexico coast, near Tampico, on Sunday; to a Category 1 or Category 2 hurricane striking Corpus Christi on Monday. In the latter scenario, since Beryl would remain over water longer, it would have more time to re-strengthen over the Gulf of Mexico.

A majority of the hurricane focused models, including HAFS and HMON, favor the “tropical storm into Mexico” scenario, as does the European model and several other solutions. I’m sure a lot of social media attention will be paid to the GFS model this morning, as it brings a hurricane to the Texas coast between Brownsville and Corpus Christi early next week. But for the time being, this looks to be an outlier compared to most of our other guidance.

The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center, which is shown above and will be updated again at 10 am CT, shows a tropical storm/borderline Category 1 hurricane striking the Mexico coast about 50 miles south of Brownsville. I agree with their thinking.

Needless to say, for the upper Texas coast, there would be differing effects from these various scenarios. For Houston, I am not too concerned about winds—for now the worst I’d expect to see is some tropical storm force wind gusts on Sunday or Monday. Seas may get a few feet higher, like they did with Tropical Storm Alberto a couple of weeks ago. But again, for now, I’m not expecting a major storm surge event. The biggest and most widespread impact I expect to see is rainfall.

Beryl should bring some heavy rainfall to parts of Mexico and Texas starting on Sunday, and into next week. The issue is that as the storm crosses the Gulf of Mexico, the high pressure ridge to its north will start to break down, and its steering currents will weaken some. (This is the source of the uncertainty in its track over the Gulf). As a result Beryl may slow down some and have the opportunity to bring heavier rainfall over a couple of days. Please don’t misunderstand me, I am not saying this is another Hurricane Harvey.

In any case, for Houston, the best chance of rainfall will likely come during the Monday through Wednesday period. My expectation right now is that most of the area receives a manageable 2 to 5 inches of rainfall. But there is some risk of higher totals. I consider this to be a lower probability, but given the influx of tropical moisture into the state of Texas next week we cannot rule out higher bullseyes and the potential for flooding.

I apologize for the lack of concrete answers, but so it goes in tropical forecasting. A good deal of uncertainty remains. At this time my sense is that Beryl goes far enough south to have modest effects on the upper Texas coast, besides increasing rain chances next week. But there remains some risk of more direct and serious effects. We’ll be watching this possibility closely and keep you updated with another post this afternoon. And for information about broader effects across Texas and Mexico, please visit our companion site The Eyewall.

In brief: In the main, our hot and sunny weather will continue through the rest of the work week. We have no weather concerns for the Fourth of July, aside from heat. Our overall pattern may change this weekend, with slightly cooler temperatures and increasing rain chances due to moisture from Hurricane Beryl.

Fourth of July forecast

The forecast for the forthcoming holiday, on Thursday, is straightforward. High pressure should be firmly in control of our weather, and this will lead to a hot and sunny day. High temperatures on Thursday will hit the upper 90s for much of the city, with coastal areas remaining in the lower 90s. Winds will be light, from the south, at 5 to 10 mph.

Temperatures at the time of fireworks, about 9 pm for most locations, will be in the upper 80s, with partly to mostly clear skies. There is only about a 10 percent chance of rainfall during the daytime, so there should be no concerns on that score. However, our ‘excitable dogs’ scale will be a 10 out of 10 given that most of our canine friends do not enjoy fireworks. Enjoy the holiday, everyone!

Tuesday

Today, like much of our recent weather, will be mostly sunny and hot. Most of the city will reach the upper 90s, with light winds. There remains plenty of moisture in the atmosphere, but high pressure (which promotes sinking air, rather than the rising air conducive to showers) will keep a lid on activity for the most part. Expect only perhaps a 10 percent chance of rain this afternoon and evening. Lows tonight will only drop to around 80 degrees for most locations.

Wednesday

Temperatures will be warm again on Wednesday, although we might be a few degrees cooler. In addition, we may see a few showers streaming in from the coast, so I’m going to bump rain chances up to about 20 percent. As for humidity, well, do you have to ask about humidity in Houston in July?

Thursday and Friday

The end of the week will see more hot and sunny weather. We’re taking temperatures in the mid- to upper 90s, with lots of sunshine and only low-end rain chances.

Saturday and beyond

Our overall pattern may begin to change on Saturday as high pressure begins to back off a little bit. Our temperatures should come down a few degrees, and rain chances increase. The changes will be modest, but by later this weekend our high temperatures should drop into the lower 90s, with daily rain chances increasing to perhaps 40 or 50 percent. This may persist into next week, depending on what happens with Hurricane Beryl and its moisture.

Hurricane Beryl

As it moved into the Caribbean Sea on Monday, Beryl had an astonishing burst of intensity for early July, reaching Category 5 status. There is fairly high confidence in the forecast between now and Friday, when the storm will likely move into the Yucatan Peninsula. A weakened Beryl will then move into the southern Gulf of Mexico.

After that time the system will most likely remain bottled up in the southern Gulf of Mexico. However, given the trend toward weakening high pressure over Texas, some of the the moisture from Beryl could work its way north. This will influence the extent to which Houston sees increased rainfall chances late in the weekend and next week. Is there a scenario in which Beryl becomes a bit more organized and its center tracks toward Texas? Yes. But for now this seems less likely an outcome than just increased rainfall chances for the greater Houston area. We’ll keep a close eye on it all.

For more on Beryl, be sure and check out our detailed forecasts on The Eyewall.

A message from Reliant

Thanks to Eric and Matt for the hot and sunny July 4th forecast!

Throughout the peak summer travel season, many people often wonder what is best practice for cooling
an empty house – and if it’s even worth it. And for those staying home, staying comfortable while
hanging out around the house doesn’t have to run up the electric bill. Check out these energy efficiency
tips from Reliant to stay cool and save money, regardless of your plans for the holiday weekend!

Traveling for the 4th:

• Follow the 4×4 principle. Setting your thermostat four degrees higher than your typical temperature when you’re away from home for more than four hours can help reduce electricity usage. Keep in mind, every degree of cooling below 78 degrees increases your energy use by 6-8%. If you’re gone for days on end, it is not recommended to turn off your AC entirely as that can increase humidity in the home, stress your appliances and cause your system to work overtime to cool your home when you return.
• Close blinds, curtains or shades before you leave to reduce solar heat gain by up to 30 percent.
• Replace the AC filter before taking off – a clean air filter can keep your A/C running at peak condition.

Enjoying the holiday from home (in addition to the above):

• Rotate your ceiling fan counterclockwise for a wind chill effect. This can make the temperature in a room feel up to four degrees cooler, allowing you to be more comfortable and adjust your thermostat to save money. Don’t forget to turn off your fan when leaving the room.
• Avoid using heat-producing appliances like the clothes dryer, dishwasher or oven during the hottest times of day. These appliances can cause your A/C to work harder to keep your home cool.
• Install a pool pump timer to run early morning or overnight and clean pool filters regularly.
• Switch out old light bulbs for new LEDs, which use 50 percent less electricity, reduce heat emitted and last at least 10 times longer than traditional incandescent bulbs.