Eric Berger

In brief: There has been a lot of uncertainty about the extent to which the coldest air from this coming week’s Arctic freeze will push all the way down to the coast. It now looks like Houston will be spared the very coldest conditions, so be thinking more along the lines of a light freeze in the city rather than a hard freeze.

Good morning on a beautiful, if chilly Sunday morning. We’re just jumping into your timeline with a weekend update because we finally have some higher confidence in how cold temperatures will get this coming week. If you recall, during the second half of last week, in our forecasts, Matt and I were hedging our bets on somewhere between very cold (low 20s) and not quite so cold (low 30s). At this point we’re leaning toward the milder end of the spectrum, which is good because it would likely spare the majority of the Houston metro area from a hard freeze.

Forecast quick look

Today is going to be cold, with highs in the 50s, and we’ll see a night with temperatures near freezing on Monday morning. Inland areas may even see a light freeze. But then we’re going to see a warmup on Monday and Tuesday, with highs potentially reaching 70 degrees. Rain showers are likely ahead of the next front on Tuesday, which will send temperatures plunging on Tuesday night. The big question has been how much of the Artic air that is going to spill into the lower United States will make it all the way down to the Texas coast. The answer, at this point, seems to be that the coldest air is going to get shunted off to the east.

Thursday morning freeze

We’ll have full details in our Monday forecast, but the bottom line is that low temperatures in Houston on the coldest morning next week, Thursday, are likely to be closer to 30 degrees than 20 degrees. Some areas south of Interstate 10 may not even freeze. Some areas along and north of Highway 105 may still see lows of 25 degrees or below. So the bottom line is that yes, it is going to get cold this week. But not as cold as we experienced in January, and with no precipitation in the cards during the coldest time periods, impacts will likely be minimal. More tomorrow!

In brief: The last two weeks have felt very un-winterlike in Houston, but that has changed with the arrival of the first of three strong fronts. Among the things we’re watching for is the potential for a few storms on Saturday, and very cold temperatures during the second half of next week.

The twelve days of February

We started the month of February on an incredible hot streak, including four consecutive days of setting or tying record high temperatures. So far this month, the average monthly temperatures has been 15 degrees above normal, and it’s felt like we’ve been in the middle of spring rather than winter. However, we are now about to flip the script.

The remainder of the month should bring near-normal and below-normal temperatures, with the potential for freezing temperatures here or there. We are not going to cancel out the extremely warm start to the month, but Houston will feel like winter again—which it should, because we are still in the middle of February.

Thursday

It’s cold this morning, and it won’t warm up much. Temperatures range from the upper 30s north of Houston to the upper 40s right along the coast. Although we should see some pockets of sunshine today, a stiff northerly wind (at times gusting up to 30 mph) will make the high temperature of about 50 degrees still feel rather cold. Conditions will remain breezy tonight, as winds shift to come from the east. Expect lows to fall into the mid-40s in Houston.

Friday

Expect a mostly cloudy day, with temperatures a bit warmer, in the lower 60s. As the flow turns more southerly, we’ll see an increase in atmospheric moisture that could bring some spotty, light showers back into the region. However, overall rain chances appear to be fairly low. Temperatures will not cool off much on Friday night, in fact they’ll start rising after midnight as we continue to see a warmer, southerly flow.

Saturday

This will be a warmer, potentially unsettled day with high temperatures in the upper 70s. There will be a chance of light showers during the daytime, potentially with a line of showers and thunderstorms passing through during the afternoon or early evening hours. Overall accumulations don’t look super high (likely less than half an inch), and while there is the potential for some damaging winds the dynamics are not particularly favorable for severe storms. We’ll keep an eye on it. Lows on Saturday night will drop into the lower 40s.

Sunday and Monday

This will be a cold day, albeit one with mostly sunny skies. Expect breezy conditions and highs perhaps in the low 50s. Expect a cold night on Sunday, with temperatures in Houston dropping into the 30s, and a light freeze possible for some inland areas. On Monday, President’s Day, we can expect more sunshine, and somewhat warmer temperatures in the upper 50s to 60 degrees. It should be a nice day for kids to be off from school.

Next week

After chilly conditions on Monday, Houston will warm back up on Tuesday and Wednesday. And then? Well, a very serious outbreak of Arctic air is going to move into the central United States. The question is how far the bulk of this air mass drops into Texas, and whether it reaches the Gulf coast. As a result, there is a wide variance in low temperatures during the second half of next week, and I would say anything from mid-20s to lower-40s is possible in Houston. Certainly it is something we’ll be watching for you.

In brief: The first of several cold fronts will arrive in Houston today, bringing with it a decent chance of rain and possibly a few storms. We’ll warm back up on Saturday before another, stronger front knocks most of Houston into the 30s by Monday of next week.

Wednesday

After an abnormally warm start to the month, Houston will see the first substantial frontal passage of February later today. We can expect a (probably broken) line of showers and thunderstorms to move through the area this morning before noon, from west to east, before drier air moves in from the northwest this afternoon. I don’t expect anything too wild and crazy from the rain showers, but it’s Houston so be prepared for the possibility of some thunderstorms and briefly heavy rainfall. Highs today will crest at about 70 degrees this morning before dropping into the 60s this afternoon, and the 50s this evening.

Thursday

Lows on Thursday morning will be in the low 40s, and with a chilly northerly flow expect high temperatures to only climb into the mid-50s. We will see mostly sunny skies, however. Lows on Thursday night will drop into the 40s as winds turn more easterly.

Friday

Skies will be partly sunny on Friday, with highs likely climbing into the mid-60s. As atmospheric moisture levels rise we could see a few scattered showers develop later in the day. Friday night looks to be mild, with lows only dropping into the upper 50s or lower 60s.

Saturday

Humidity levels will spike on Saturday, with high temperatures likely pushing toward 80 degrees as we see a surge of warmer air ahead of the next cool front. Although the timing is still a bit uncertain, this front likely moves through on Saturday afternoon or evening, and it should bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms with it. We’ll see about the dynamics for storms, but right now they don’t appear to be overly favorable in the Houston metro area. Lows on Saturday night are likely to plunge in the wake of the front, dropping to about 40 degrees.

Sunday

Expect clear, sunny, and cold conditions with high temperatures of around 50 degrees. Lows on Sunday night will drop into the 30s for much of Houston, and we cannot rule out a light freeze for some inland areas.

Next week

We’ll be chilly on Monday and Monday night before a warmup next week, followed by what appears to be another fairly strong cold front on Tuesday or Wednesday. This will, once again, bring the chance of a light freeze to Houston by Thursday morning or so. Winter is not over yet.

In brief: Today’s post discusses the likelihood of widespread rainfall today and Wednesday ahead of the first of several decently strong cold fronts. Speaking of which, there’s the possibility of a freeze over the next 10 days, so we don’t advise planting tender plants just yet.

Winter is not over yet

Houston has had an anomalously warm start to February, with an average temperature of 72.1 degrees. This is a shocking 16.2 degrees above normal through the first third of the month. Beginning Wednesday we’re going to enter a cooler, more seasonal pattern. Looking ahead, global models are pointing to the possibility of two stronger cold fronts next week.

The first of these arrives Sunday, and the second possibly by next Thursday or so. One or maybe both of these could drive Houston’s lows into the 30s, and there’s a distinct chance of a light freeze about 10 days from now. I’m not saying it will happen, but it’s definitely possible. So hold off on gardening for a little while longer.

Tuesday

Today is likely to be a fairly wet day. We don’t really have any significant flooding concerns, but streets could pond over amid some of the stronger showers or thunderstorms. The rain will be somewhat scattered this morning before showers become more widespread this afternoon as the atmosphere turns unstable. Showers will likely peak in coverage this afternoon before rain chances diminish somewhat overnight. This won’t be the end of the rain, as we are likely to see another round of showers on Wednesday morning along with the front.

Temperatures this morning are generally in the upper 60s across much of Houston, and they’re going to remain there all day with cloudy skies and the potential for rain. Winds will be gusty, varying from the south, east, and northwest. Lows tonight will only fall into the low- to mid-60s for most locations.

Wednesday

Additional showers are possible on Wednesday morning and into the early afternoon hours, ahead of the actual cool front. Between now and Wednesday afternoon I expect most of Houston to receive 1 to 2 inches of rainfall, although amounts could be a little bit higher for areas well inland, including The Woodlands and points north. Highs on Wednesday will be in the upper 70s for most before drier air moves in during the evening hours. Temperatures will start to fall before midnight, and by early Thursday morning temperatures for most of the area should dip into the upper 40s.

Thursday and Friday

These will be a pair of partly sunny days, with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Thursday will see gusty, northerly winds and Thursday night will be quite chilly, in the low- to mid-40s. Friday night will be a bit warmer, in the 50s, as the flow turns more southerly.

Saturday

A warmer day, with highs in the mid-70s. We’ll again see the potential for some widespread (mostly light?) showers ahead of the next front. Accumulations don’t look overly impressive, but bear in mind the potential for rain if you’re planning outdoor activities. Colder air likely arrives overnight, pushing lows on Sunday morning into the 40s.

Sunday

Sunshine returns for the second half of the weekend, but with a colder, northerly flow high temperatures will likely be in the 50s. Lows on Sunday night could drop into the upper 30s in Houston, give or take. We’ll see.

Next week

Our roller coaster weather rolls on, with highs by the middle of next week likely rebounding into the 70s. However, most of our guidance points toward a fairly strong front for the second half of next week. This is when I think there’s at least a decent chance to see a widespread freeze in Houston.