Eric Berger

In brief: Monday will be calm, but you should anticipate the potential for showers, thunderstorms, and heavy rainfall on Tuesday and Wednesday in the Houston metro area. We don’t have high confidence in the timing yet, but with the atmosphere in place we can be pretty confident in disruptions, and have put a Stage 1 flood alert in place through Wednesday. Things calm down after that.

Weekend review

You would be hard-pressed, I think, to expect a finer weekend in early May than we just experienced. My wife and I were at a choir event on Sunday evening at the Willowynn Barn in Santa Fe—a gorgeous place for events by the way, I joked with Amanda that I would like to have my next wedding there—and you just had to stand outside and soak it up. Summer is on the horizon.

Inland areas got into the 50s on Sunday morning in Houston, and most of the rest of the area enjoyed the lower 60s with drier air with dewpoints in the 40s. That’s really pleasant for May. I do think we’re going to see another weak front for next weekend, but unfortunately it’s unlikely to pull as much drier air with it. And first we’ve got to get through another stormy pattern.

Monday

Humidity is already on the rise this morning, and we’ll see southeasterly winds gusting up to 25 mph that will set the stage for more moisture in the air. We’ll start out with partly sunny skies this morning, but by some point this afternoon we should see mostly clouds. High temperatures will reach the vicinity of 80 degrees. By this afternoon and evening we will see some scattered showers, mainly located to the west of Interstate 45. A chance of light rain will spread into the entire region during the overnight hours as lows fall to around 70 degrees.

Tuesday and Wednesday

The moisture that moved inland on Monday was a “warm” front, and it will set the stage for the possibility of heavy rainfall and storms on Tuesday and Wednesday in the Houston metro area. Our various high resolution models still have some discrepancies, but right now I would predict that the greatest potential for inclement weather will occur from late Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning across the region.

There will be the usual threats: damaging winds, hail, and possibly a tornado. We are also concerned about the potential for heavy rainfall. Most areas are likely to pick up 1 to 3 inches of rain through Wednesday, but we could see some higher bullseyes of 5 inches or more. For this reason we are going to institute a Stage 1 flood alert from Tuesday at noon through Wednesday. In terms of temperatures, Houston should reach the lower 80s on both days with plenty of humidity. We’ll have more on this later today and plenty of coverage the rest of the week.

Thursday

Rain chances should diminish by Thursday, but will perhaps not go away entirely until the afternoon. Expect partly sunny skies and high temperatures in the low- to mid-80s. Lows on Thursday night should drop into the upper 60s.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

As a weak front drifts into the area we should see another nice weekend. I don’t know if we’re going to run it back and have things as nice as we just experienced, but as of now I anticipate mostly sunny skies with highs in the low 80s, overnight lows in the 60s, and modestly drier air. So if it is not cool as this past weekend, it will hopefully at least be somewhat pleasant.

In brief: Storms firing to the north and west of Houston will sag into the city this evening and down to the coast by around midnight. This system should also weaken with the loss of daytime heating, so the severe threat is diminishing. But it’s not completely gone yet.

If you live along, or south of Interstate 10 you may be wondering what the big deal is with storm forecasts today. So far the majority of the activity has taken place in the northern half of the Houston metro area. Some locations just north of Conroe have picked up in excess of 6 inches of rain, and areas near Kingwood have recorded upward of 4 inches. There also has been a fair amount of hail, some of it quarter-sized, within the stronger thunderstorms.

As of 6:45 pm CT two things are changing. The first is good news. The threat for severe weather, particularly hail and damaging winds is fading. That does not mean these storms cannot produce severe weather this evening, it just means that their ability to do so is declining. The second change is that, ahead of a cool front, the threat of showers and thunderstorms is now moving into central Houston and should reach the coast between 10 pm and midnight. Again, we expect the line of storms to weaken as it moves toward the coast.

So for areas that have been inundated with storms today, the finish line is sight. Things should clear out in northern areas over the next couple of hours. For areas that have seen nothing so far today, but may have heard the distant sound of thunder, showers and perhaps some stronger thunderstorms are inbound this evening. Closer to the coast I think rain totals will be hit or miss, but most of the region should see some rainfall between now and Saturday morning.

Saturday and Sunday both look like pleasant late spring days, with drier air and highs in the vicinity of 80 degrees.

In brief: Severe thunderstorms are developing in Houston as of noon on Friday, and will pose a threat for the next 12 hours across the region. We’ve got details about all of the threats in this update, with a particular concern for the evening commute.

As anticipated, with daytime heating, we are seeing severe thunderstorms developing in the Houston region. As of 12:30 pm CT there are large clusters of storms near Kingwood and just west of Katy. From this point forward we expect additional development throughout the afternoon and evening hours as the capping inversion over the region breaks.

From now until about 5 pm the majority of activity should be clustered along and north of Interstate 10, but that certainly does not preclude thunderstorms developing in the southern half of the region. Unfortunately we expect that the majority of the region is likely to see activity during the evening commute as the storms spread, making for a messy time on freeways. If you can leave earlier today, that’s probably for the best.

In terms of threats we have three major concerns right now.

RAIN: These storms will be capable of producing heavy rainfall, and under high rainfall rates we are likely to see street flooding. For this reason we have implemented a Stage 1 flood alert for the region through tonight. Essentially, you need to be weather aware on roads, take extra time, and do not drive into high water. Rainfall amounts will vary widely, with most of the area likely picking up 0.5 to 2 inches. I am concerned about a few bullseyes of 4 inches or more, which are possible.

WIND: There is a healthy chance of damaging winds with these storms, so anything you can batten down would be helpful. The threat of damaging winds is the highest we have seen so far this spring, so again this is another reason to stay off roads amid strong thunderstorms this afternoon and evening if possible.

HAIL: In some thunderstorms near Kingwood weather spotters have already observed quarter-sized hail this afternoon. So this is a distinct threat as well as these storms pass through.

Tornadoes are also possible, but the threat is on the lower end of the scale.

Over the next several hours the bulk of the storms will shift southward, ahead of a front rumbling into the area. Areas south of Interstate 10, accordingly, will likely face the greatest threat of severe weather from late this afternoon to late this evening. By midnight, or shortly afterward, the threat of storms should move offshore. After that, the weekend looks lovely.

We will update later today as warranted.

In brief: Today’s post reviews an unseasonably warm April and then looks ahead to some dynamic weather on Friday. Much of the region should see storms between Friday afternoon and Saturday morning as a slow-moving cool front moves into the region. After this, the weekend looks quite nice for early May.

May arrives

If April seemed rather warm, you’re not wrong. The month ended last night, and for the greater Houston region it was a seasonably sizzling one. The city’s average temperature was 74.6 degrees, which is nearly 5 degrees above normal. This ranks as the fourth warmest April of all time in the city’s history. One reason is that the city saw no real fronts during the second half of the month. But that does not mean summer has quite yet arrived in Houston. A modest front will reach the city this weekend, and another one is possible about 10 days from now. These won’t be strong fronts, as such things are rather rare for May. But any dry air this late into the spring season is welcome.

Thursday

If you’re wondering about those storms on Wednesday night, they essentially remained north of Highway 105, with only a smattering of rain making it down into the Houston metro area. Plenty of moisture remains in the atmosphere so we may see a few showers and thunderstorms today in Houston, but I expect most of us to stay dry. As skies clear out this afternoon, it should be rather warm day, with a few inland locations probably reaching 90 degrees this afternoon. Winds will be from the south at 10 mph, gusting perhaps to 20 mph. Lows tonight only fall into the low 70s for most locations.

Friday and Friday night

In terms of temperatures and humidity, I expect Friday to be similar to Thursday, however I do expect to see less sunshine. The big thing to watch is the possibility (likelihood, really) of showers and thunderstorms on Friday afternoon, evening, and overnight. As a front approaches Houston we are likely to see a mass of showers and thunderstorms develop north of Interstate 10 by Friday afternoon or early evening, and we cannot rule out some hail or damaging winds with these. Although I believe the formation of tornadoes is unlikely, I cannot say none will occur.

Later on Friday evening, or perhaps around midnight, these storms should march southward toward the coast before the whole thing moves offshore some time on Saturday morning. Because we are still nearly 48 hours from all of this, we are just coming into the range of high resolution modeling. However I want people to be aware that the region could see 0.5 to 2 inches of rain on Friday evening and night, with the possibility of thunderstorms. If you have plans for Friday night, this is definitely something to take into account.

Saturday

Rain chances will likely end on Saturday morning, and we should see some clearing skies during the afternoon hours. High temperatures will likely reach about 80 degrees for most locations, with some modestly drier air. Lows on Saturday night will depend on how far you live from the coast, with areas south of I-10 maybe reaching 65 or the lower 60s, whereas some areas further inland have a chance to reach the upper 50s. It should, in any case, feel pretty nice.

Sunday

Dare I say this may be the nicest day the region sees until some time in October? Expect mostly sunny skies with a high temperature in the vicinity of 80 degrees. With dewpoints in the 50s, the air will feel reasonably dry. Although we cannot entirely rule out a few isolated showers at this point, I don’t expect much rain. Lows on Sunday night will, again, drop into the lower 60s for most.

Next week

Already on Sunday we’ll start to see the return of a southerly flow, and this will eventually nudge temperatures and humidity back up next week. The bigger story will be a lumbering low pressure system that is likely to be a rainmaker for the region. It’s hard to predict totals, but next Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday look to be fairly soggy ahead of possibly another weak front.