Eric Berger

In brief: The atmospheric setup today is favorable for severe weather, including hail, damaging winds, and possibly tornadoes. The main threat will come from late this morning until early this evening. After the storms, Houston’s weather turns much calmer for the weekend.

Thursday

After a relatively mild Christmas Day, the atmosphere above Houston is recharged for another round of storms today. Rising moisture levels will spark some scattered showers this morning before an atmospheric disturbance advances into the area. Accordingly, we should start to see some thunderstorms later this morning, and likely becoming more widespread by around noon or so. We will then see the threat of severe weather until about sunset this evening, or shortly thereafter.

What does that mean? Well in addition to heavy rainfall, there may be enough rotation in the atmosphere to support a few tornadoes, enough updraft to support hail, and downdrafts to promote high surface winds. On top of this, although much of the area probably will see about 1 inch of rain, higher accumulations are definitely possible and this may lead to some localized street flooding. The bottom line is that, from late this morning through the early evening hours, you should be prepared for the possibility of disruptive weather.

Skies, otherwise, will be mostly cloudy. Expect highs in the mid-70s. Some moderately drier air will move in with a weak front tonight, allowing for lows to drop into the upper 50s in Houston.

Friday

Friday should be mostly sunny and pleasant, with high temperatures in the low- to mid-70s. Winds will generally be light. As the short-lived front washes out, lows on Friday night will be a bit warmer, in the lower 60s.

Saturday

This will be a warmer, slightly more humid day, with high temperatures in the upper 70s. A front will move through Houston on Saturday evening (exact timing to be determined) and this may bring with it a broken line of showers sometime during the day. I’m not particularly bullish on the potential for showers, but we’ll see. Anyway, Saturday night should be cooler, in the 50s.

Sunday

This should be a lovely day, with highs in the lower 70s, sunshine, and drier air. Lows on Sunday night will drop into the 50s.

Next week

We should see lots of sunshine next week. We’ll be a bit warmer on Monday, but a front looks set to arrive late on Monday night, or New Year’s Eve, to begin the process of bringing temperatures down to more typical levels for this time of year. My early guess at temperatures for the night of New Year’s Eve calls for temperatures in the 50s, with probably mostly clear skies, and breezy conditions. So while it very likely won’t rain during New Year’s celebrations, it could be chilly. Lows should fall into the 40s for most of next week, in the new year.

In brief: Good morning on this fine Christmas Day. Santa sure brought the thunder last night, didn’t he? We are interrupting your holiday with a short update to note that another round of storms is possible Thursday as we see a similar setup: Lots of moisture in the atmosphere and a weak frontal boundary.

Christmas Day

The storms have cleared our area to the east, and we’ll see a calm day today. Look for high temperatures around 70 degrees, with partly to mostly cloudy skies, and possibly a few light, lingering showers. Tonight will be mild, with lows in the lower 60s. The bottom line is that, soggy soils aside, any activities today and this evening should be fine.

Thursday

As atmospheric moisture levels rise, we’ll see the possibility of some fog on Thursday morning to go along with some fairly humid conditions. The problem is that we’re going to see another disturbance propagate down from the northwest during the daytime. What this likely means is that the Houston region (particularly coastal areas, maybe?) will see the potential for some scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Then, later on Thursday afternoon or early evening, we’ll see a line of storms move down from the northwest to southeast. I’m not convinced these storms will be as organized as what we saw early on Christmas morning, but there’s the potential for some damaging winds, more hail, and briefly heavy rainfall. They might also strike during rush hour. The storms should clear the area before midnight.

Afterward, Friday and the weekend looks pretty pleasant. We’ll have all the details on that in our forecast on Thursday morning. Until that time, have a wonderful holiday!

In brief: Showers and a few thunderstorms return to the forecast today in Houston. A stronger line of storms will move through the area tonight, likely with lightning in the middle of the night. So Christmas morning could start with a bang. Most of the holiday should be fine, weather-wise. Expect mild temperatures for the remainder of the year.

Clouds streets above Houston streets

Tory Gattis sent in the following photos yesterday, which he observed over Midtown in Houston. These are fairly low lying in the sky, so they’re stratocumulus clouds. The straight-line nature of the clouds is colloquially known as cloud streets, and more formally as horizontal convective rolls. The precise reason why they form is actually not particularly well understood, but they sure are pretty to look at. We will see more clouds today, but they are likely to be of a more ominous nature.

Today, tonight, and Christmas

Houston’s weather will turn more dynamic this morning as an upper-level disturbance approaches the area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible today, with the potential for some slightly more organized activity this evening. High temperatures today will reach the mid-70s, with mostly cloudy skies. Winds will be light, from the southeast. All in all, if you can dodge a few showers and storms, conditions today should not be too disruptive.

However the story could be different tonight, as an organized line of showers and thunderstorms marches down into Houston from the northwest. I expect this line of storms, likely with a fair bit of lightning, to reach areas north and west of Houston (i.e. Katy and The Woodlands) by just before or around midnight, give or take. It should then push through the Houston metro area between midnight and sunrise on Christmas Day. Some of our latest modeling indicates this may be a rather noisy passage, with briefly heavy rainfall and lots of lightning. If Santa’s coming and going doesn’t wake the dogs, these storms probably will. Damaging winds are possible, as well as a slight chance of hail. Most areas should pick up 1 to 2 inches of rain, with some higher bullseyes.

The good news is that the storms should be off the coast and off to the east of the Houston metro area by fairly early on Christmas Day morning. The storms will drag a weak front into the area, so expect high temperatures in the lower 70s on Christmas, with slightly drier air. Some additional light, scattered showers will be possible with partly to mostly cloudy skies, however I think the rain will be over for most. Lows on Wednesday night will drop into the upper 50s to 60 degrees.

Thursday and Friday

The front won’t last long, and with a soggy atmosphere in place expect warm days in the mid-70s to end the holiday week. Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy, and both of these days and nights will have a decent chance of rainfall. These showers should be less explosive than those expected on Christmas morning, and accumulations far less.

Saturday and Sunday

We should see more sunshine this weekend, although we can’t rule out a few showers on Saturday morning ahead of another weak front. Saturday should be nice, with slightly drier air, and nighttime temperatures falling into the 50s. Sunday should also be sunny, with moderately drier air, and highs in the mid-70s. Rain chances are near zero.

Next week

We probably will see the return of a warmer, more southerly flow early next week. We’ll likely also see a slight chance of showers at well. At some point, perhaps on New Year’s Eve, or New Year’s Day, a much stronger front will arrive. This should bring us seasonal weather for 2025, starting the year off on a winter-like note. Details to come.

Merry Christmas to all!

Please do be aware of the potential for storms tonight and early tomorrow. We’ll be keeping an eye on things, and if they look more dramatic than your typical Houston thunderstorms, we will update the site later today. However, if the forecast stays on track we probably will take Christmas Day off from posting. So please have a wonderful day.

In brief: After a cold, winter-like weekend Houston will now see mild weather for the rest of the year. We’ll also see some rainy days, although at this point Christmas Day itself should be mostly rain free. The overall pattern looks to remain fairly warm until the start of next year, at which point conditions will probably turn significantly colder again.

End of year appreciation

As we near the end of this year, I want to thank everyone who contributes to Space City Weather. I must start with Matt, who has been with me almost since the beginning of the website, and who is the most reliable partner one could ask for. As Space City Weather has grown, Lee has kept us online for the better part of a decade—our server would have drowned during Hurricane Harvey had it not been for him. Dwight is a constant source of advice and support, and ensures we are current on social media. Hussain developed our app almost singlehandedly, and keeps it updated amid constant changes in mobile technology.

Elizabeth, Pat, Megan, and the team at Reliant have backed our site for more than seven years, living up to their name as reliable partners who have enabled us to grow and serve the entire community. Tory and Lauren at Pierpont have been so friendly and helpful (and patient) in promoting the site and supporting events. And finally, dear readers, we have you. Our very most important asset is the trust you hold for our work here. Every morning Matt and I wake up trying to make sure we build that trust, rather than lose it, which is not always the easiest thing to do when predicting the future. So during this holiday season, thank you for believing in us. Merry Christmas, Happy Hanukkah, and Happy Holidays from us, to you!

Monday

After lows generally in the 30s over the weekend, temperatures at sunrise on Monday are in the low 50s for most of the Houston metro area. And this will probably be our coldest morning this week as high pressure has departed the area and we experience a more southerly flow. Rain chances should hold off today, but we’ll see the return of some clouds as winds come from the southeast, perhaps gusting up to 20 mph this afternoon. Look for highs in the mid-70s, with a mild night and lows generally in the lower 60s.

Tuesday

Christmas Eve will be warmish, with highs in the mid-70s and mostly cloudy skies. As moisture levels rise in the atmosphere, a disturbance will bring a healthy chance of rain. Starting in the morning, our weather could turn a little bit gnarly, with enough instability to support some thunderstorms, possibly small hail, and heavy rainfall. Most areas probably will see a few tenths of an inch of rain, but some inland locations may pick up 1 inch or more. Healthy rain chances continue during the overnight hours.

Christmas Day

The stormy weather should move off to the east overnight, although we may see some lingering fog on Christmas morning. The day itself should be nice, with partly sunny skies and high temperatures in the low- to mid-70s. Winds should be light. Lows on Christmas night will fall to around 60 degrees in Houston, with cooler conditions for areas further inland.

Thursday, Friday, and Saturday

This period will be warm for late December, with high temperatures in the upper 70s and plenty of humidity. Each day will see rain chances on the order of 30 to 50 percent, and perhaps even higher chances on Thursday and Friday nights. All in all, I expect most of Houston to pick up 1 to 2 inches of rain during this period, with higher isolated amounts. The days won’t be a total washout, but if you have post-holiday gatherings you may need to dodge some showers. If there’s a silver lining, it’s that we do need the rain.

Sunday and beyond

A weak front arrives on Saturday at some point, and this should clear us out. Sunday should be sunny, and cooler, with nights in the 50s. By around New Year’s Eve, or so, a stronger front will arrive to really cool us down for the new year. It’s still too early to have details for the holiday, but the first week of 2025 should be significantly colder, including the potential for a freeze in parts of Houston. We shall see.