Eric Berger

In brief: Houston’s heat will continue to build this week, likely peaking with triple-digit temperatures this weekend across most of the metro area. Today’s post also reviews a recent report by the National Weather Service on winds and other impacts from Hurricane Beryl.

Hurricane Beryl’s winds

On Tuesday the National Weather Service issued a summary of findings on Hurricane Beryl, which includes official measurements of maximum winds, rainfall, storm surge, and more. This is the best data we are likely to get regarding the local meteorological impacts from Beryl, which made landfall south of Houston a little more than a month ago.

Of most interest is the winds from Beryl, as they were the cause of power outages to about 90 percent of customers in the Greater Houston area. A few days after Beryl’s landfall, Space City Weather published a post that said a region with a competent electricity distribution system should not have experienced such widespread outages. The new data supports this view. The highest sustained winds across the vast majority of the Houston area were in the vicinity of 40 to 60 mph, with gusts in the 60 to 80 mph range.

For much of Houston, especially the eastern half of the metro area, these winds were less than experienced during Hurricane Ike, in 2008. For example, maximum sustained winds during Hurricane Ike at Hobby Airport, in the center of the city, were 75 mph. During Beryl, maximum sustained winds were 54 mph. These were different storms, with different tracks, but it seems clear that our electricity distribution grid 16 years after Hurricane Ike is no stronger than than before. It is possibly even more vulnerable.

Beryl was not a pleasant event. Hurricanes never are. But we almost certainly will experience much worse wind storms in the coming decades. Will our electricity distributors, CenterPoint, Entergy, and Texas-New Mexico, be ready?

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

By now, you should know the drill. For the rest of the week we’re going to see mostly sunny days with temperatures in the upper 90s. We’ll continue to see some spotty rain chances during the late morning and afternoon hours as the sea breeze pushes inland. If I’m being generous, I’ll say there’s a 20 percent chance of such showers near the coast, and perhaps a 10 percent chance inland of Interstate 10. Consider yourself fortunate if you get a splash of rain to help the trees and briefly cool down the air. Winds will be light in the morning, before blowing from the southeast at about 10 mph by the late afternoon hours. Overnight lows will only fall to about 80 degrees.

Saturday and Sunday

The temperature dial gets turned up higher for the weekend, with much of the area reaching 100 degrees. Rain chances also fall back to near zero, as high pressure strengthens and promotes sinking air. This probably will be the hottest stretch of summer—no guarantees, sorry—so let’s all get through this together. We’re about a month away from the time when we might realistically begin to hope for fall’s first front.

Next week

The overall pattern does not change much next week, at least as far as I can see. Temperatures may fall a few degrees, back into the upper 90s. But it’s still going to be hot and sunny, with warm and sultry nights. Rain chances look low.

Tropics

Ernesto is approaching hurricane strength as it lifts away from Puerto Rico. It may well become a major hurricane before seriously threating the island of Bermuda on Friday or Saturday. Elsewhere the tropics are blissfully quiet for mid-August, and look to remain so over the next week at least.

In brief: We saw some isolated showers and thunderstorms on Monday, and this pattern is likely to repeat itself on Tuesday. However, for the most part we’re looking at hot and sunny weather, and temperatures are likely to increase a bit further for the weekend. This will be a weekend to find some water in Texas.

Tuesday

On Monday a few, isolated areas saw some fairly decent showers. A location along the North Freeway, just south of Aldine, picked up half an inch of rain. A rural area southeast of Alvin picked up nearly three quarters of an inch. The vast majority of Houston, however, may have heard some distant thunder but picked up no rain at all.

So it will go again today, as atmospheric moisture levels are fairly high, but we’ve got generally sinking air due to high pressure. This limits shower activity. However the spark today, like on Monday, will be the sea breeze pushing inland during the late morning and afternoon hours. This will again produce some spotty showers and thunderstorms. I would peg chances at about 20 percent for locations south of Interstate 10, and 10 percent further inland.

Why have I spent two paragraphs talking about a 20 percent chance of rain? Because there’s absolutely nothing else going on with our weather this week except for heat. For the most part we’re going to see hot and sunny weather, and temperatures should reach a crescendo this weekend. Highs today will be in the upper 90s, with lows tonight only dropping to about 80 degrees.

Wednesday through Friday

This pattern will continue, with hot and mostly sunny days in the upper 90s to 100 degrees during the afternoon hours. A few isolated showers will be possible along the sea breeze. Winds will be from the south or southeast at 5 to 10 mph, with slightly higher gusts possible during the afternoon or early evening hours.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend looks very hot, with temperatures of 100 degrees, to the low 100s, for nearly all of the metro area away from the immediate coast. Skies will be sunny.

Next week

If we look further out, by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week temperatures may come down slightly. But only slightly. And at this point I’m not really seeing any indications of meaningful or widespread rain on the horizon.

Tropics

Tropical Storm Ernesto formed on Monday, and it is moving toward Puerto Rico in the next day or so. Longer term it should become a hurricane and eventually threaten Bermuda. It will not be a player for the mainland United States. Beyond Ernesto? I don’t want to taunt the tropics, but things look to remain quiet for a spell through the middle of August. Fingers crossed.

In brief: Today’s post discusses how this time of year is normally when the Atlantic tropics really start popping off. Also, Houston is going to see a very hot and mostly sunny week, which is fairly typical for mid-August.

Hurricane season snapshot

This has already been a very active Atlantic hurricane season. Although there have been just four named storms so far, two of them have become hurricanes, Beryl and Debby. Beryl is the most notable storm so far, reaching Category 5 intensity two weeks earlier in the Atlantic season than any previous storm on record. It also struck the greater Houston area, of course, causing widespread power outages and significant tree damage.

However, the reality is that during a typical hurricane season, about 90 percent of activity (as measured by the duration and intensity of tropical systems) comes after August 10. This can be seen in the image above, which shows the number of active storms, by day, across the previous eight decades. Historically we really start to see activity take off at this time, and remain very high for the next couple of months.

And right on cue we have Tropical Depression Five in the Atlantic Ocean. This storm is definitely not a concern for the Gulf of Mexico, but could threaten Caribbean Islands such as Puerto Rico before turning north and possibly striking Bermuda. The good news from our perspective in Texas is that after this storm—which would be named Ernesto—the Atlantic tropics could quiet back down for a short while. Looking at available model data, we’re not yet seeing evidence for a flurry of storms through mid-August, although that certainly could change by the final week of August.

August countdown

Speaking of August, my choice for the worst month of the year in Houston, there are 20 days left until the beginning of September.

Monday

After some slightly drier air over the weekend—and you have to be a real connoisseur of humidity to have noticed it, but it was there—dewpoints will be back in the upper 70s today. This additional moisture in the atmosphere may help to squeeze out a few showers along the sea breeze this afternoon. But you’ll be lucky to be hit by a shower. I’d peg chances at about 20 percent south of Interstate 10, and 10 percent or less further inland. For the most part it’s simply going to be hot and mostly sunny, with temperatures generally in the upper 90s. Winds will be from the south to southeast at 5 to 10 mph, with slightly higher gusts during the afternoon and evening hours. Lows tonight will drop to around 80 degrees.

Tuesday through Friday

We can pretty much Ctrl-C, Ctrl-V Monday’s forecast for the rest of the week, which is to say each subsequent day is likely to be a copy of the former: Hot, mostly sunny, and with slight rain chances.

Saturday and Sunday

The only change for our weekend forecast is that, instead of temperatures in the upper 90s, we’ll see highs of around 100 degrees. Thanks, mid-August! I don’t see much impetus for a pattern change any time soon, sorry.

In brief: Houston’s heat and humidity continue, pretty much without change, for the time being. In the spirit of optimism, in today’s post I identify a couple of silver linings to the ongoing August weather.

Small victories

Houston continues lie under the influence of high pressure, and while there will be some subtle changes in the days ahead the big picture of heat and humidity remains more or less the same. This is fairly typical for August, and there are a few upsides. One is that, with the lack of rain of late, the incredible surge of mosquitoes we saw in July has abated some. And secondly, for as long as there is high pressure in place, it should steer any tropical activity away from us. Even so, these are small victories when the weather is this sultry.

Thursday, Friday, and Saturday

The current heat wave will peak over the next three days, with high temperatures likely to reach 100 degrees for much of the metro area. We won’t get much, if any relief from winds, which will range from calm to maybe 5 mph. Skies will be sunny, with high humidity. Low temperatures will briefly get down to about 80 degrees overnight. Please take care if you’re going to be outside during the middle of the day.

Sunday

The second half of the weekend isn’t going to be much different. It will still be hot, sunny, and humid. Rain chances will still be near zero percent. However, temperatures for most of Houston probably will not reach 100 degrees. So we’ve got that going for us, which is nice.

Next week

There won’t be a whole lot of change next week. Skies should still be sunny, for the most part. Highs likely will range from the mid- to upper-90s. I don’t want to say rain chances are zero, because they’re not. But they’re quite low, in the 10 to 20 percent range for most days. Perhaps they’ll be a little bit higher by Friday or Saturday, but one has to squint really hard into the available data to see that.

Tropics

Tropical Storm Debby has moved back inland into the southeastern United States, where it will continue to produce heavy rainfall and flooding in the Carolinas, before bringing the same to Virginia and the northeastern United States in the coming days.

Beyond Debby there is a new wave that forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are tracking. Most of our model guidance indicates this wave will turn northward before threatening the Gulf of Mexico, but given the time of year we’ll keep an eye on things just in case.