Eric Berger

In brief: After a warmer spell Houston will now see some of its coldest weather of the season as temperatures fall into the 30s for much of the region. But don’t get too accustomed to sweaters, as warmer weather returns for the weekend and the first half of next week. Rain chances also return later on Friday, but showers definitely look to be hit or miss this weekend.

Hot, then cold, rinse and repeat

Houston’s roller coaster weather continues, as is often the case this time of year. High temperatures kicked up to 76 degrees on Monday, our warmest day so far this month. But then a fairly strong cold front has moved in over night to bring in much drier and chillier air for the next couple of days. But by Friday temperatures will be back on the upswing again with a warmer weekend after that.

Tuesday

Depending on how far you live from the coast, temperatures this morning are either in the 50s or lower 60s. Winds are from the north-northwest. As the day goes on we’ll see some gusts up to 25 mph, and that should continue this evening. The effect will be especially pronounced for coastal areas, with the National Weather Service posting a “gale warning” for this afternoon and tonight, with seas of 7 to 10 feet and stronger winds offshore. Maybe not the best evening for a boating excursion.

As for temperatures, we’ll likely see highs today in the lower 60s. If skies aren’t clear when you’re reading this, they should soon be. A secondary push of colder air later today will help drive temperatures tonight into the 30s (for inland areas) and 40s (closer to the coast). Combined with the wind, it will be rather chilly outside. Bundle the kids up for school tomorrow morning.

Wednesday

A fine and sunny winter-like day, with highs perhaps around 60 degrees. Expect another chilly night, with temperatures likely within a degree or two of what the region saw on Tuesday night. However, winds will be decidedly less.

Thursday

Thursday should be partly to mostly sunny, but the onshore flow will be back. Look for southeasterly winds, with gusts up to perhaps 20 mph or higher. This warmer and more humid air should lead to the influx of some clouds on Thursday afternoon, and highs in the mid-60s. Lows on Thursday night will be warmer, likely in the upper 50s for most locations.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

With the departure of high pressure, the forecast for the weekend is a little more uncertain. Some weaker fronts are likely to approach the area, but it’s not clear whether they’ll stall (more likely) or push all the way into the city or down to the coast. So what does this mean? Well, I’m pretty confident in daily high temperatures in the 70 to 75 degree range, with moderate humidity. Rain chances will return later on Friday, Friday night, and Saturday morning, but overall accumulations don’t look significant. Still, it’s something to monitor if you have outdoor plans throughout the weekend. Lows each night will probably be in the upper 50s or lower 60s, but it will depend on your distance from the coast and the movement of the aforementioned fronts. In summary, the weekend looks not-too-hot, not-too-cold, with a chance for a splash of rain.

Next week

This overall not-too-warm, not-too-cold pattern with a smattering of rain chances will probably persist through about Wednesday. There is a pretty decent (although not certain) signal for a stronger front later next week, heading into the weekend. This will get us back to feeling like winter in Houston. As for the Christmas holiday, it’s still far enough on the horizon for us not to have much confidence in any forecast. But it’s probably going to be closer to Mele Kalikimaka than a Winter Wonderland. We’ll see.

In brief: Houston has a dynamic forecast over the next several days with a cold snap, followed by a weekend warm-up. Rain chances return on Saturday, with the period of Saturday night and Sunday looking especially wet. Then we’ll see a mild Monday followed by another sharp cold snap. Buckle up!

Thursday

A cold front pushed offshore on Wednesday night, and we’re now seeing an influx of drier and cooler air. Temperatures are around 60 degrees in much of the Houston region this morning, and that’s where we’ll likely top out during what will be a mostly cloudy, and cool day. Some very light, misty showers will be possible for the next couple of hours, but after that we should be rain free for 24 to 36 hours. Winds will be breezy, from the northeast. Low temperatures tonight will drop into the low 40s for most of the area.

Friday

This will be a fine, winter-like day. Expect highs in the mid-50s, with partly sunny skies. Yes, we should clear out for several hours during the daytime with moderate northeasterly winds. Friday night will be a bit warmer, but still should see temperatures drop into the 40s in Houston. Some rain chances return to the area after midnight.

Saturday

Skies will be mostly cloudy on Saturday, with highs around 60 degrees. The cold front that moved offshore on Thursday will pull back, and come ashore as a warm front. This will help drive increasing rain chances. During the day time I expect to see at least some scattered showers, with increasing chances Saturday evening and especially during the overnight hours. Although we are still about a day away from having high resolution modeling for this time period, it does appear as though there is a risk of rain to mar any holiday activities during the daytime and early evening on Saturday.

Sunday

At this point it appears the best chance for sustained and modestly heavy rainfall will probably come between midnight on Saturday and noon on Sunday. I don’t expect any real serious flooding issues, but most of the area should see on the order of 2 inches of rainfall from Saturday through Sunday night, with higher totals certainly possible. Rain chances continue into Sunday night. The bottom line is that it’s going to be a wet weekend, especially beginning some time Saturday evening or night into Sunday. Highs on Sunday will be about 70 degrees as dewpoints rise.

Monday

Skies should clear out on Monday to give us our warmest day of the forecast period. Expect highs in the mid- to upper-70s.

Rest of next week

After Monday’s warmth a fairly strong cold front will push into the area, bringing mostly sunny and colder weather. Houston could drop into the 30s, even, for a few nights next week with some of the far inland areas seeing a light freeze. Highs for a couple of day may only reach the 50s. All of that is to be determined, but much of next week does look quite a bit cooler.

In brief: Our overall pattern is definitely changing, with rainfall likely today and tonight, and then again this weekend. Although precipitation will be plentiful, sunshine will be scarce until at least Monday. Our temperatures will go up and down, with Friday looking especially chilly even during the daytime.

Wednesday

Warmer and more humid air is spreading inland from the Gulf of Mexico this morning as a southerly flow takes hold, and this will set the stage for healthy rainfall today and into tonight. It appears that the most organized set of storms will move in from the southwest later this morning, pushing into the central Houston area around noon before lifting off to the east-northeast.

What to expect? Mostly this should be light to moderate rainfall. However there is a slight, and I do mean slight chance of something stronger such as gusty winds and thunderstorms. It’s possible that areas north of Interstate 10 may even see a tornado warning, but that is much more unlikely than likely to happen. Anyway, most of the greater Houston region should see some rain, with general totals on the order of 0.25 to 1 inch. However there will likely be some part of town, maybe in the Sugar Land or Pearland areas, that probably hits a bullseye of 2 inches or more. Chances for lighter rain continue this evening and into the overnight hours.

Highs today will reach the lower 70s, with fairly sticky dewpoints. Temperatures tonight will drop into the 60s, with drier air starting to arrive after midnight.

Thursday

As a cool front pushes the warmer air back offshore, look for a cool and cloudy day Thursday, with daytime temperatures likely in the vicinity of 60 degrees. Rain chances should be low to non-existent during the daytime hours and overnight. Lows on Thursday night are chilly, dropping into the low- to mid-40s for much of Houston.

Friday

A colder day still, with highs likely topping out in the 50s, beneath gray skies. Lows will again drop into the 40s on Friday night with some light rain possible late.

Saturday and Sunday

If you have outdoor plans for this weekend, I would describe the forecast as challenging. Saturday looks to be another cool and gray day, with highs in 50s to lower 60s. The likelihood of rain, probably light, is about 50 percent during the daytime hours. By Saturday evening and overnight we will probably start to feel the influence of a coastal low pressure system, and this will increase rain chances on Saturday night through much of Sunday. Highs on Sunday will probably be in the low 70s, with muggy air. The bottom line is that any outdoor activities on Saturday evening through Sunday night will face the distinct possibility of rain. Most of the area should see 2 to 4 inches of rain through Monday morning.

Next week

Skies look to clear out some on Monday, giving us our warmest day of the forecast period as highs push well into the 70s. After that another front appears likely, driving lows down at least into the 40s by Tuesday or Wednesday. We’ll have to see.

In brief: What goes up must come down over the next week or 10 days, as Houston rides a roller coaster of temperatures. The other big story will be rain chances, which will be high on Wednesday, and then an ongoing possibility through the weekend. Unfortunately, we still don’t have great clarity for when it might rain this weekend, but we’ll tell you when we do.

A fundraiser thank you

Just a quick note to very sincerely thank everyone who contributed to our annual fundraiser, which is now over. Matt and I are so appreciative of all the support, and we can’t wait to bring the city and its good people multiple cool fronts next July and August. Because that’s our job, right?

Tuesday

We’re starting today at the bottom of the roller coaster. Low temperatures this morning range from the upper-30s well north of Houston to the 50s down near the coast. Winds are generally light, from the north, and should veer to come from the east. Skies will be mostly sunny today—generally if you want to see sunshine for the next week today is the today. It’s going to be mostly cloudy from here on out for awhile. Highs will reach the mid-60s for most locations. Lows tonight will be about 10 degrees warmer than Monday night, dropping into the mid-50s.

Wednesday

We’ll reach the top of the roller coaster on Wednesday, with warm and muggy air, as highs reach the low 70s. Beginning early Wednesday, we’ll see the possibility of some sprinkles or light showers. Some slightly stronger showers, and possibly a few thunderstorms, are possible on Wednesday afternoon and evening as as the region feels the influence of a coastal low pressure system. A decent chance of showers remains in the forecast through the overnight hours, and most of the region is likely to see perhaps 0.5 to 1.5 inch of rain, with higher accumulations possible.

Thursday and Friday

So rain chances are dialed back somewhat on Thursday. I generally expect mostly cloudy skies and highs in the 60s. Here’s where the forecast, itself, turns cloudy. The most probable outcome is the arrival of cooler and drier air in response to another front. The uncertainty is that there is still a slight chance that the effect of this front is blunted somewhat, so we may not get that cold. However, my expectation is that lows on Thursday night will generally drop into the 40s on Thursday night, with Friday being a chilly day, with highs in the 50s. All throughout we’re going to see a slight chance of rain, not any kind of storms, but light rain most likely. Lows drop into the upper 40s on Friday night. Probably.

Saturday and Sunday

I’m still not particularly confident in the weekend forecast beyond generally cloudy skies. My expectations are for highs in the 60s both days, with lows in the 50s. So what about rain chances? I’m going to hedge and say they’re about 50-50 each day. At this point, accumulations look to be higher on Sunday, but honestly the forecast is really difficult to call right now. So we’re going to have to fine tune things in the next day or two. I know it’s the not the answer you want, but it’s the answer you’re going to get right now. But some rain is definitely coming this week and over the weekend. I expect most of the area to pick up between 1 to 4 inches through Sunday night.

Next week

Monday is probably a warmish day, with highs in the 70s, and perhaps some sunshine. After that we’re likely to see another front, that will help cool us down and may actually bring more sunshine. But we shall see what lies on the tracks ahead.