Eric Berger

In brief: Houston’s fling with warm, muggy, and at-times foggy weather will end today with the passage of a cold front this afternoon. This will usher in several days of sunny, cooler weather with ample dry air. A warming trend returns next week, but the overall outlook for Christmas Day is mild, with rain chances near zero.

Sea fog

Conditions are ideal this morning for the development of dense fog, and we are seeing just that with light winds and saturated air. Visibility in some locations is as low as one-quarter of a mile, and it is making driving hazardous and slower than normal. And hey, driving in Houston at rush hour is already pretty slow and hazardous, you know? The fog should dissipate by a couple of hours after sunrise, and with drier air moving in this afternoon it will no longer be a concern for awhile.

Wednesday

After the fog clears this morning skies should be partly to mostly sunny, and highs will likely reach at least the lower 70s today with plenty of humidity. The front should push into northwestern regions by around noon today, as a broken line of showers (with perhaps a few thunderstorms). This line will progress rapidly toward the coast, and likely be offshore by the mid- to late-afternoon hours. Gusty northerly winds will follow, quickly dropping dewpoints. Temperatures will fall to around 60 degrees by sunset, and most of Houston will bottom out in the upper 40s by early Thursday.

Thursday and Friday

These will be a pair of fine, clear days with high temperatures in the low- to mid-60s. Winds will generally be light, from the north. Thursday night will again see lows in the upper 40s, but Friday night into Saturday morning will be chillier due to a reinforcing front. Expect some inland areas to reach the mid- to upper-30s.

Saturday

This will be the coldest day of the forecast period, with high temperatures in the upper 50s to perhaps 60 degrees, with plenty of sunshine. Lows Saturday night will drop to the low 40s in Houston.

Sunday

Another sunny day, with highs in the low 60s probably, and a bit warmer conditions Sunday night.

Next week

Most of next week looks warmer, with highs generally in the 70s, lows in the upper 50s, and modestly humid air. The models continue to suggest that some rain will be possible later next week, but for now it very likely will hold off for Christmas Day.

In brief: The overall pattern remains the same, with a little more than one day of muggy and warm weather ahead of a cold front that will usher in much more seasonable weather. This front will bring cooler conditions for the rest of the week, and into early next week. However we’ll see a warming trend by Christmas Day next week, when conditions look to be fairly mild.

Tuesday

We’re starting out this morning with fairly widespread fog due to temperatures nearly matching dewpoints, and calm winds. It may persist for an hour or two after sunrise. After that, if you liked Monday’s weather, you’re in luck. Today will be similar, with high temperatures in the upper 70s to 80 degrees, and partly sunny skies. We’ll see a few isolated showers this afternoon, with the barest chance of a thunderstorm. Lows tonight will drop into the mid-60s, with partly cloudy skies. Expect the possibility of some fog again tonight and on Wednesday morning.

Wednesday

Houston will experience the same muggy pattern on Wednesday ahead of a cold front. The timing of the front is a bit uncertain still, but I expect a broken line of showers to advance into Houston from the northwest, perhaps reaching areas such as Katy and the Woodlands around noon-ish, and the coast during the late afternoon hours. Although the showers look to be hit or miss, the region will experience some fairly stiff northwesterly winds almost immediately with the front’s passage. Expect gusts up to 25 mph or so as drier air blows in. Temperatures should drop into the 50s after sunset, and most of the region away from the coast should drop into the upper 40s overnight as skies clear.

Thursday and Friday

These will be a pair of mostly sunny days with high temperatures generally in the mid-60s, and mostly light northerly winds. Thursday night should drop into the upper 40s, but Friday night looks colder with an additional surge of cooler air. Most of the region should drop to around 40 degrees, with some inland areas hitting the upper 30s.

Saturday and Sunday

Mostly sunny and cooler weather continues through the weekend. High temperatures on Saturday will top out at about 60 degrees, with another cold night, followed by mid-60s on Sunday, and a slightly warmer night. We have zero weather concerns about weather during the final weekend before Christmas.

Next week

We continue to expect to see a warming trend beginning next week, which will probably last at least through Christmas Day. There remains some uncertainty in the details, but my best guess for weather by next Wednesday is lows in the upper 50s, highs in the 70s, modest humidity, and partly sunny skies. It’s way too early to have any confidence in whether it will rain or not on the holiday, but it remains a possibility.

In brief: It decidedly did not feel like the holidays this weekend in Houston, and we’ve got a few more warm and muggy days before a front arrives to bring much more seasonal weather into the forecast. There will be plenty of drier air and chilly temperatures this coming weekend. But what of Christmas Day?

December is half over

Believe it or not, the month of December is half over. Until this weekend, the Houston region was experiencing fairly normal weather for this time of year. But highs this weekend were quite a bit above normal. In fact, Sunday morning’s low temperature of 66 degrees was a couple of degrees warmer than the typical high for mid-December. We’ll remain fairly warm and muggy until the arrival of a front on Wednesday afternoon or evening, which will bring cooler conditions through the weekend. As for the upcoming Christmas holiday forecast, I’ll make an attempt below.

Monday and Tuesday

The first two days of this week will be much the same, with high temperatures in the vicinity of the upper 70s to 80 degrees. With sticky dewpoints and light southwesterly winds, each morning will also be a candidate for fog, especially in coastal counties. Skies will be partly sunny during the daytime, with nights muggy and only dropping into the mid- to upper-60s for most locations. There will be a chance for some (mostly) light showers each day, but they will be pretty isolated. All in all, not very festive.

Wednesday

But fortunately, change is coming. Wednesday will start out much the same as the previous two days, which is to say warm and muggy. Some time, probably during the afternoon but it could be earlier or later, a front will move down from the northwest. There is likely to be a broken line of showers, and possibly a few thunderstorms, with the front. However, at least half of us, and perhaps more, are unlikely to see much rain. Anyway, temperatures will drop pretty quickly after the front’s passage, so you’ll notice it. Houston should reach highs in at least the mid-70s before the front cools us down. Lows on Wednesday night will drop into the 40s for inland areas, and 50s for the urban core of Houston and the coast.

Thursday, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

The second half of the week looks to be mostly sunny and significantly cooler, with dry air. Thursday and Friday should be in the 60s, with lows around 50, and Saturday and Sunday a bit cooler still as a reinforcing push arrives. Lows this weekend should drop into the 40s in Houston, with the upper 30s possible for far inland areas. The last full weekend before Christmas should feel very holiday-like!

And what lies under the tree for Christmas Day?

Only a fool would try to make a point forecast for nine days from now, but I will step forward this morning to be the sacrificial fool. It’s pretty clear that we’re going to see a warming trend by Monday and Tuesday of next week. But how warm will we get?

Right now the best ballpark guess for Christmas morning is temperatures somewhere in the 50s, with partly cloudy skies. High temperatures probably will get into the low- to mid-70s. Dewpoints don’t look crazy high, so right now I don’t expect a muggy day such as we experienced this past Sunday. By the middle of next week the pattern will be supportive of rain, but there’s no strong signal yet for any widespread rain on Christmas Day. All of this could, of course, change. But right now the outlook is for an at-least somewhat pleasant day.

In brief: It’s a very cold morning out there across Houston, but temperatures will now be on the upswing, with balmy weather expected this weekend and into early next week. We’ll also see a smattering of rain chances throughout the forecast period, but nothing too crazy. We cool down later next week.

Thursday

It’s a rather chilly morning, with most of the Houston area in the 30s. A few inland areas, including Conroe and Cleveland, have dropped to 30 degrees or below. However, this is the bottom of the temperature valley for Houston, and we’re now going to ride the rails upward to a plateau of moderate days and mild nights through at least next Monday or Tuesday.

For today, specifically, skies will be mostly sunny with high temperatures in the mid-60s. With southeasterly winds in place, we’ll start to see a more moderate flow, and lows tonight will only drop into the low- to mid-50s for much of the area. By this evening we should see at least some partly cloudy skies as moisture levels increase in the atmosphere overhead.

Friday

Expect mostly cloudy skies on Friday, with high temperatures of around 70 degrees. I can’t entirely rule out a few light showers, but for the most part I don’t expect any rain. Friday night will be warm, with lows only in the lower 60s, and a slight chance of rain.

Saturday

A cold front will drop down into Texas this weekend, but most likely it will stall north of the metro area. This will lead to partly to mostly cloudy skies on Saturday, with perhaps a 50-50 chance of rain. Any showers that do develop will probably be light, so these will be a nuisance rather than seriously disruptive. Expect highs in the mid-70s. Saturday night looks warm and muggy, with lows only in the mid-60s.

Sunday

This will be a partly sunny and warmer day, with highs in the upper-70s. I’m hopeful that we’ll see some partly sunny skies, with only lower-end rain chances. In short, this is probably the better day for outdoor activities.

Next week

Monday looks warm and partly sunny, with a decent chance of rain, before a weak front arrives Monday night-ish. Tuesday and Wednesday will probably be a bit cooler before a second, and stronger push of colder air arrives later on Wednesday or early Thursday to bring seasonal weather back into Houston for December, which is to say highs in the 60s and lows near 40 degrees. It may be a little warmer or even colder than this through next weekend. We’ll see. Alas, it’s still too early to have much confidence in a Christmas Day forecast. It’s just too early and the models are bouncing all around.