Eric Berger

In brief: Today’s post discusses elevated rain chances today, and the rest of the week, which should help keep daytime highs a bit cooler. However, with higher temperatures on the horizon next week, power losses really need to be restored by then. I also list my top five most impactful weather disasters in Houston.

Ranking Beryl in the pantheon of Houston weather disasters

I’ve lived in Houston since 1997, covered weather on a semi-regular basis since 2001, started blogging about hurricanes in 2005, and been a certified meteorologist since 2014. I have tromped around flooded Houston streets during Allison, heard the winds howling downtown during Ike, and froze my tuchus off three and a half years ago during those “rolling” blackouts that never actually rolled.

The following list is totally subjective, but it’s coming from the perspective of someone who has probably written more words about the weather in Houston than anyone past or present—probably about 3 million words, or nearly six times the length of War and Peace. Anyway, after all that writing and thinking about Houston weather, here is my list of top five most impactful weather events since I got here:

• 1. Hurricane Harvey (2017). The competition for the top spot is not even close. The worst flood storm in US history and very likely the defining event of my career. I’ll never forget any of it.
• 2. Hurricane Ike (2008). At the time, it was the second costliest US hurricane ever, ranking behind only Hurricane Katrina. It still ranks among the top 10, and was a devastating wind and surge event.
• 3. Valentine’s Freeze (2021). We froze. We lost power. Our pipes burst. The roads iced over. The entire state of Texas, of Texas, was under a freeze warning at one point. This event impacted almost everyone in our community.
• 4. Tropical Storm Allison (2001). Before Harvey this was Houston’s flood of record. The Texas Medical Center flooded. Downtown Houston flooded. Everything flooded. Crazy rains that night. If you know, you know.
• 5. Hurricane Beryl (2024). At this point I’m prepared to put Beryl on this list due to its widespread disruptions to power and internet connectivity (still down for many, I realize). Beyond that, the storm downed hundreds of thousands of trees, and caused serious coastal flooding due to surge.

There are other serious contenders for this list. Dwight Silverman told me he believes the Drought of 2011 should be on the list, and it did cause serious structural problems in Houston, and utterly disrupted our flora and fauna. I also considered Hurricane Rita, which led to the death of 107 evacuees. Rita ultimately missed Houston, but no one who evacuated will forget that nightmare, and it led to statewide reforms in how Texas and local communities manage evacuations. Tropical Storm Imelda’s rains were catastrophic for parts of the Houston region, but a non-event for others. Other events, like Tropical Storm Frances (1998), and the Memorial Day and Tax Day floods, were also more localized phenomena.

Those are my thoughts. What about yours?

Thursday

With a boundary just offshore, and plenty of moisture in the atmosphere, we’ll start to see rain chances increase today. Coastal areas will see coverage of about 50 percent, with a few stronger thunderstorms. Areas further inland will have lower, but not non-existent chances. Increased cloud cover and rain-cooled air should help keep temperatures a bit lower today, in the low 90s for most, possibly even a touch lower near the coast. Humidity levels remain high, of course. Winds will be light, out of the southeast.

Friday and Saturday

The pattern will be more or less the same the next couple of days, with partly to mostly cloudy skies, and healthy rain chances. Showers and thunderstorms will be most likely during the afternoon hours, with daytime heating and the seabreeze providing a trigger. Highs will range from 90 to the lower 90s for most locations.

Sunday

Chances start to back off a bit, but there will still be a modest chance of rain. Look for highs in the low 90s with partly sunny skies.

Next week

High pressure starts to edge upward heading into next week, and this will increase our daily temperatures into the mid-90s, and then possibly the upper-90s. Rain chances will decrease for the start of the week, but should be on the rise again toward the end of next week. In any case, this is going to be hot summer weather in Houston, and people are going to need their power back on.

In brief: Today’s post discusses why Beryl’s winds were so strong hours after landfall, and then looks ahead to a forecast with some decent rain chances and slightly cooler daytime highs.

Hurricane Beryl’s persistent winds

Normally as a hurricane traverses land it starts to weaken fairly quickly. But Beryl didn’t as it moved north from Matagorda into Fort Bend County and Sugar Land. The storm maintained much of its strength and bulldozed right into the heart of Houston with near hurricane-force sustained winds and higher gusts. Why?

I chatted a little bit about this with Eric Blake, a forecaster at the National Hurricane Center, on the social media site X Tuesday. He noted that just as it was coming ashore, Beryl was starting to intensify rapidly, with a closed-off eyewall. He believes it would have been a Category 2 hurricane with just six more hours over the water. Thus, there was a lot of momentum built up by the storm.

So I think the storm’s long-lasting winds were a combination of factors. First, as Beryl moved north at about 12 mph, it crossed much of Houston just six hours after landfall. Second, as the storm came ashore with such momentum toward intensification, it took some time and interaction with land to unwind that momentum. Only after this could it start to weaken more rapidly once it passed north of Houston.

Weather isn’t all bad

I’m a weather and space nerd, so when I’m outside I always like to look up. Mother Nature has delivered us some harsh blows of late, but the skies were beautiful on Tuesday evening. I took this photograph of mammatus clouds just at sunset on Tuesday south of Houston, while walking around my neighborhood.

Wednesday

Skies today will be mostly sunny, with just very light northeasterly winds. Expect high temperatures in the low-90s for most locations, with inland areas possibly hitting the mid-90s. It will be a very warm day, with plenty of humidity. Areas near the coast, such as Matagorda and Brazoria counties, may see some showers and thunderstorms develop this afternoon, but most of our area should be rain-free.

Thursday, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

Our pattern turns slightly more unsettled toward the end of the week as a stalled boundary will open the door to increased rain chances, especially for locations south of Interstate 10. Daily rain chances for these coastal areas will be on the order of 50 percent, with slightly lesser odds inland. Showers should mostly occur with peak heating, during the afternoon hours. Overall accumulations through the weekend don’t look excessive, but areas closer to the coast could see 0.5 to 1 inch of rainfall, or a little more. The increased cloud cover will help to moderate daytime temperatures a bit, with highs expected in the range of upper 80s to lower 90s.

Next week

We’re going to really need our utilities to deliver on restoring power for everyone next week, because as high pressure likely becomes a little more dominant, we’re going to see daytime temperatures creep back upward. I’m not expecting a full-blown heat wave, but this kind of pattern typically produces highs at least in the mid-90s in the Houston area in July. That’s pretty hot to be without power.

In brief: Houston will see a warm, mostly sunny pattern for the next couple of days before rain chances tick up a bit toward the end of the week. These will mostly be seabreeze type showers, so nothing too crazy. They should help to keep highs generally in the low 90s into the weekend as millions struggle without electricity.

Beryl aftermath

Beryl will soon dissipate, but as of this morning it remains a tropical depression moving rapidly to the northeast over Arkansas. It will not be a factor in our weather going forward. Bayous and creeks are quickly returning to normal levels, and coastal waters have retreated. We are left to cleanup, and there is plenty of work to do with CenterPoint still reporting 1.8 million customers with outages, Entergy with 232,000 outages north of Houston, and Texas New Mexico Power 92,000 customers mostly south of the city. Houston will not be as hot as it could be in July, but it will still be plenty hot this week unfortunately.

One discovery made at the Berger household is that one of our downed trees contained a huge bee’s nest. I had seen more bees of late near our garage, but I had no idea this was there. We’re working to get the hive moved to an apiary. Pretty wild stuff.

Tuesday

Skies will be mostly sunny today, with high temperatures in the low 90s. Winds will be light, generally from the northwest. Given the sunshine and high humidity levels, we’ll see “high” heat levels today based on wet bulb globe temperatures, so please drink plenty of water and take a cold shower or bath if possible to cool down. Low temperatures tonight will drop into the upper 70s, providing some modest relief. Rain chances will be near zero today.

Wednesday

Another mostly sunny day with highs generally in the low 90s. Rain chances will again be low, with light northeasterly winds.

Thursday, Friday, and Saturday

These days will see a mix of clouds and sunshine, this should continue to help keep high temperatures in the low 90s. Rain chances will be better on each of these days, with the influx of some moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. We’re talking perhaps a 30 to 50 percent chance each day of mostly light to moderate showers and thunderstorms. Total accumulations for most areas through the weekend will probably be on the order of one-half inch of rain, or less. Nighttime temperatures should continue to remain in the upper 70s.

Sunday and next week

More sunshine and lower (but not non-existent) rain chances arrive next week. We can probably expect highs in the low- to mid-90s, with nights trending a bit warmer.

Good luck to everyone today with storm recovery!

In brief: This post will provide some forecast information about Beryl and what to expect in the days ahead, but its main purpose is to try and answer a lot of the questions we’ve been receiving since the landfall of Beryl.

Bye, Bye Beryl

Beryl is whizzing away from Houston. As of 4 pm CT the storm is already 110 miles north of Houston, and pulling away at 16 mph. The storm has weakened into 45-mph tropical system and its weather effects on our region are marginal at this point. Soon they will be nil.

Forecast for this week

It could be worse for mid-July. Losing power during the summertime in Houston is very, very suboptimal, but at least we’re not jumping back into full-on summer heat right away. High temperatures for the rest of this week will be in the low 90s, with a transition to the mid-90s by the weekend. Overnight lows should also drop into the upper 70s for most locations, a few degrees cooler than we’ve been experiencing.

The lower daytime temperatures will be partly due to a fair amount of cloud cover during the afternoons, and a decent chance of showers and thunderstorms each day. (Right now overall accumulations each day look to be on the order of a tenth of an inch, or two, so no real concerns there). Humidity is still going to be very high. Winds are going to go from extreme to near zero by Tuesday morning. In terms of wet bulb globe temperatures, we’re talking high, but not extreme heat.

Is there anything else out there in the tropics to be worried about?

Nope.

We expect to see a lull in tropical activity for at least the rest of this week, if not longer, which is normal for July. Lord knows we’ve earned it. Several people have asked whether Beryl means it’s more or less likely we see another storm this season. I don’t think it makes any difference to our odds. We’ve still got about two and half months during which we need to remain really watchful of the tropics.

Creek and bayou flooding

Most of the creek and bayou flooding we’ve seen on Monday has peaked, or will soon. In the absence of heavy rainfall, and with our winds turning southwesterly, we will see these waters recede pretty quickly this afternoon and evening.

What is up with all these power outages?

I’ve got to tell you, I’m rather surprised by the extent of the power outages today due to downed trees, power lines, and damaged transmission equipment.

As of 2:30 pm CT today, CenterPoint reports that 2.2 million of its Houston-area customers are without electricity, or about 85 percent of them. I’m blown away because, during Hurricane Ike in 2008, there were about 2.1 million customers without power in the immediate aftermath of the storm. If you had asked me before Beryl whether I expected to see comparable outages during this storm, I would have emphatically said no.

Large chunks of the Houston metro area experienced sustained winds of 75 to 90 mph during Hurricane Ike, which made landfall with 110 mph winds. However, during Beryl, the maximum sustained winds that most communities experienced were on the order of 45 to 70 mph. (Beryl made landfall about 80 miles south of Houston with 80-mph sustained winds). So I really don’t understand why a majority of the Houston region is without power this afternoon. Beryl was a serious wind storm, but it was not Ike.

Is my internet coming back anytime soon?

When the power went out, it also took most of our broadband internet providers. The intricacies of internet service are beyond the scope of this site, but generally broadband providers like Comcast need electricity at the local level to deliver internet to your home. So my sense is that, for most communities, high-speed internet won’t come back until the power comes back. I’ve been (not so) patiently checking Xfinity’s site for my service address, and the estimated time of restoration remains an ominous, “as soon as possible.”

As for cell phone towers, you may have just a bar or two of service, which is not really enough to surf the web but still allows you to text and make phone calls. That’s because cell towers are subject to power outages as well. They have backup electrical systems, such as batteries or generators. Some carriers have trucks to service batteries or refill fuel-powered generators, but my understanding is that high-speed cell service may also be dependent on electricity being restored to nearby cell towers. 

Are y’all gonna take a breath now, or what?

Like so many of you, Matt and I both experienced some issues with Beryl. In my case it was several large downed trees and limbs. (Shoutout to my neighbor, Andy, for being handy with his chainsaw so I could use my driveway). I continue to have no internet service, so I drove to Dwight’s house to research and write this update.

The bottom line is that we’re reverting to a normal, daily posting routine starting Tuesday morning. And the posts may be a bit late as we get things back in order. But honestly the forecast is super straightforward: warm-to-hot days, mild nights, high humidity, and a decent chance of showers and thunderstorms with daytime heating.

I want to offer a sincere thank you to everyone who followed along with us during Beryl, a storm that proved a beast to forecast, and which packed a surprisingly strong punch for a Category 1 hurricane making landfall to the south of Houston. I think I speak for everyone but the roofers and tree trimmers when I say, good riddance!