Eric Berger

Good morning. For part of the Houston area it’s been a stormy night, from Conroe northward late Sunday night, and from Pearland southward to Galveston early this morning (a coastal flood advisory is in effect until 11am CT). More than 2 inches of rain have fallen on the island during the overnight hours. Fortunately for most of Harris County, including the western parts of the metro region, we’ve seen scant rain during the overnight hours.

TODAY

Change is on the way. For the rest of the morning, with a moist airmass in place, we’ll see the continued threat of showers and thunderstorms across the area. However a merciful cold front should finally move through later today, and we should see an end to the heavy rain threat by around noon or shortly thereafter. Between sunrise and around noon there isn’t the potential for more than some minor street flooding to occur in Houston, and since the showers have generally remained to the south and north of the city of Houston, we can probably expect that trend to continue. The bottom line: This moist airmass is departing soon.

As our reward for all of this we’re about to see some glorious weather.

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I wanted to take a few minutes this morning to explain what happened with our forecasts for potentially very heavy rain on Friday night and Saturday, why we made the decisions we did, and then talk about what’s ahead for Houston in what will remain a wet pattern for a few more days.

FRIDAY’S MISS

For a couple of days Matt and I have been talking about the potential for very heavy rain in Houston this weekend, especially Friday night and Saturday morning. We weren’t alone, of course. The National Weather Service issued a flash flood watch. A lot of people were concerned. But I can only speak for our forecasts.

By early Friday afternoon we were pretty concerned, and wrote so here. Several high resolution forecast models were showing the potential for very heavy rains and severe storms later that evening and during the overnight hours.

These model forecasts were predicated on a capping inversion, an area of warmer air above the surface that prevents surface moisture from rising, breaking down. This didn’t seem like an unreasonable expectation, but unfortunately we don’t have good, timely data on the “cap.” The best information we have comes from “soundings,” essentially weather balloons sent into the upper atmosphere twice a day. But there are no Houston soundings. For Houston, the closest sounding locations are in Lake Charles, La. and Corpus Christi. A 7pm CT sounding from Lake Charles showed there was a stronger cap in place than the models were predicting.

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A steady line of storms has continued to make a westward progression toward Houston, bringing the threat of damaging winds and possibly an isolated tornado.

As the southern half of this storm system has weakened, the primary threat will remain largely to the north of Interstate 10, where a severe thunderstorm warning is in effect.

While these storms will unquestionably pack a punch as they move through, they are, in fact, continuing to move along. This will keep additional rainfall amounts this morning to 1-2 inches north of Interstate 10, and considerably less than that to the south. Also, with the rapid eastward movement, most of the Houston metro area will be in the clear by or before 10am CT this morning, leading to fairly benign conditions for most of the rest of the day. Further to the east, areas in Beaumont will see storm activity persist for a few hours more.

Posted at 7:50am CT Saturday

Good morning. The very heavy rain stayed well to the north of Houston during the overnight hours, with 1 to 10 inches falling across east Texas, generally increasing from Conroe north through Shreveport (there’s a flash flood warning in effect for parts of San Jacinto County, East Central Montgomery County and Polk County). Areas in East Texas such as Henderson and Marshall were hit especially hard.

So far a capping inversion has held over Houston, to keep most of the metro area high and dry. However there’s one more round of heavy storms off to the west of Houston that will likely break this cap as it moves through later this morning. As a result the entire region is under a severe thunderstorm watch through 11 a.m.as this system moves toward Houston.

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