Eric Berger

In brief: We may see a broken line of showers and thunderstorms move into the Houston region today, although I think rainfall accumulations will be hit or miss. Still, it’s something to be aware of if you’re going to be out and about today. After that we’re looking at several days of hot and sunny weather, although there’s a non-zero chance of a weak front early next week.

Hurricane season outlook

As you probably know, a majority of predictions have forecast the 2024 hurricane season to be especially active. On Thursday I’ll be discussing the seasonal outlook with Reliant’s Lyris Leos, and what Houstonians should consider heading into the season. The broadcast will occur at 2 pm CT on Facebook Live, and will also be available as a recording afterward. You can ask questions in the comments below, or on Facebook.

Wednesday

There is a complex of thunderstorms near Waco and Lufkin this morning that will move steadily southward. Although I’m not convinced this line of organized storms will hold together, some showers and thunderstorms may move into Houston later this morning, likely reaching areas such as The Woodlands and Kingwood 10 am to noon, central Houston an hour or two later, and pushing into coastal counties around noon or shortly after. Anything that develops will likely have cleared the area by this evening’s commute.

Rainfall amounts will be widely variable, with a few isolated locations perhaps seeing 1 to 2 inches of rain, and many other parts of the metro area no accumulations at all. I can’t rule out some severe thunderstorms with this line, but overall the chances for strong winds and hail are fairly low. Highs will depend on the extent of clearing this afternoon, but most locations should reach the low 90s with partly sunny skies after the system passes through.

Thursday

A sunny and hot day, with highs in the mid-90s across much of Houston. Rain chances look to be close to zero. Winds will be light, from the south.

Friday

Another hot and sunny day, likely the warmest of the week. Expect parts of Houston to reach the upper-90s.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend should see continued hot and sunny weather, with highs in the mid-90s and plenty of humidity. Rain chances are low to non-existent. Lows will be in the upper 70s.

Next week

The forecast turns more interesting early next week. I’m not ready to make any guarantees, but there is an increasing likelihood that some sort of weak front may work its way into Houston. Since we’ll be well into June at that point, we still should be somewhat skeptical, but there’s a decent chance we’ll see some showers on Monday or early Tuesday, followed by an influx of some somewhat drier air. We should have more confidence in this forecast by tomorrow or Friday.

In brief: Houston will continue to see some spotty rain chances the next couple of days before hotter and sunnier weather sets in for the end of the week and the weekend. Do you like temperatures in the mid-90s with lots of sunshine? Then you’re in luck. In this post we also discuss the rise of AI-based weather forecasting.

AI and weather forecasting

You’ve probably tried out ChatGPT or some of the other large language model-based artificial intelligence products that have come out in recent years. The basic premise of this technology is that they voraciously consume data to improve answers to queries. The more and higher quality data, the better their training, and the sharper the results. Well, when it comes to weather there is also a lot of historical data. Many decades of it, in fact, in datasets such as Europe’s ERA5 reservoir.

In the last couple of years, computer scientists have gotten serious about using this data to train AI models to forecast the weather in 2022. (These models have some basic similarities to large language models, but are distinctly different). Since then, the technology has made rapid strides. In some cases, the output of these models is already superior to physics-based global weather models that scientists have labored decades to design and build, and which require some of the most powerful supercomputers in the world to run.

Why do I bring this up? Because for the first time some of these models appear to be ready for prime time for the Atlantic hurricane season. And one of the things they seem to do really well is to predict the track of hurricanes. So Matt and I may be referring to them from time to time as part of our forecasting process. We’ll be evaluating them alongside the traditional, physics-based models. If you want to know more about all of this, I recently wrote a feature about AI weather forecasting for Ars Technica.

Speaking of hurricane season, things still look quiet for at least the next week or so. We’ll be providing regular coverage of Atlantic based activity on our companion site, The Eyewall again this year. Don’t worry, nothing will change here at Space City Weather. In any case, Matt has some more information about our plans for The Eyewall in 2024 here, including sponsorship opportunities, if you’re interested in what we’re doing beyond Houston.

Tuesday

We’re seeing a few showers near the coast this morning, but these should end fairly soon. For the most part, today, we should see a mix of sunshine and clouds with high temperatures in the low 90s. The most notable feature today may be the winds, which look to be fairly gusty from the south, reaching about 25 mph or a bit higher this afternoon. Rain chances are about 10 percent, or less, with a slight chance of severe storms along and north of Highway 105. Low temperatures tonight will only fall to about 80 degrees.

Wednesday

Tomorrow morning looks a little more interesting, in terms of rainfall, as a storm system drops down from the north around sunrise. This may produce some scattered showers during the morning commute in Houston, but it’s also possible that most of the rainfall stays to the east of Houston, over places like Beaumont. In any case, I don’t think we’ll see much in the way of severe weather. Some additional rain showers could develop during the late afternoon or early evening hours, with daytime heating. Again, chances look spotty. Most of the area probably has about a one-in-three chance of seeing rain, or less. Otherwise, expect partly sunny skies with high temperatures in the mid-90s.

Thursday and Friday

As high pressure expands into Houston these look to be mostly sunny days, with highs in the mid-90s. Daily rain chances are about 10 percent.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend looks to bring continued hot and sunny weather, with highs in the mid-90s. Once again rain chances won’t be zero, but they’ll be close to it. With slightly drier air we may see nighttime temperatures falling into the mid- to upper-70s. We’re approaching the time of the year when the sunshine reaches its highest point in the sky, so please protect your skin when outdoors between the hours of 10 am and 4 pm.

Next week

We may be looking at some sort of pattern change next week, with some slightly drier air or better rain chances. What this all means for our weather is not quite clear to me yet, but I do think we’re likely to go back toward the lower 90s rather than remain on an upward trend in temperatures.

In brief: This post recaps the macro conditions that set the stage for our strong to extreme storms during the month of May. The week ahead looks warmer, with highs in the low- to mid-90s, but possibly some slightly lower humidity by the weekend. Rain chances are low for awhile.

May storms

The month of May ended over the weekend, and in Houston we will remember it as one of the stormiest spring months in memory. I don’t have all of the answers for why strong storm system, after storm system rolled through Houston bringing violent winds, some hail, and occasionally some tornadoes. But as we look how the month of May ranked, temperature-wise, we can glean one big clue.

For the Houston area, the month generally ranked among the 10 warmest Mays on record. However, when we look at the western United States, particularly Colorado and Wyoming, we see colder temperatures. This is important because storm systems that develop in the Great Plains states, and then sweep eastward and southward, are driven by both geography—where the mountains meet the plains—as well as temperatures. That is, the collision of warm, humid air from the Gulf of Mexico with the colder air of the northwest United States is the cauldron in which mesoscale convective systems are born. This May, that temperature gradient was sharper, creating an environment in which the clash of these air masses produced still more violent storms.

Monday

Today will be similar to Sunday, which is to say that skies will be partly sunny with high temperatures generally in the low 90s. Winds will be from the south at 10 to 15 mph, with higher gusts. Houston isn’t entirely out of storm territory, but anything that develops in Houston should be isolated, and rain chances are likely only about 10 percent. Further north, along and north of Highway 105, storm chances this afternoon and evening are a bit higher. Tonight will be warm, with lows only briefly reaching the upper 70s for most locations.

Tuesday

Skies will be mostly sunny on Tuesday, with highs in the low 90s. There’s a bit of uncertainty, as there are hints of another modestly organized storm system in the models approaching the city on Tuesday morning. However, I’m fairly bearish on this actually happening, so I expect we’ll remain dry. But it’s possible we’ll see a few showers and thunderstorms during the morning hours. Winds will again be from the south, but perhaps gustier, up to 25 mph or so.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

These will be warmer and sunny days, with highs in the mid-90s. Do you like summer in Houston? Then you’re in luck. Rain chances aren’t zero, but they’re on the order of 10 percent each day.

Saturday and Sunday

A slightly drier air mass may work its way into the region this weekend. Highs are likely to still reach the mid-90s, but the humidity may be slightly lower. (You can see this reflected in the wet bulb globe temperature forecast for the weekend). Lows should get down into the mid-70s in parts of Houston, so the evenings may feel that bit more comfortable.

Next week

I don’t feel particularly confident in the forecast next week, but some rain chances may return to the forecast by Monday or Tuesday. Nothing crazy, mind you. But after a sunny week and weekend, some rain probably would not be unwelcome.

In brief: While the probability of severe weather is lower today, the Houston region is still likely to see the development of storms later this morning, lasting through the afternoon hours. Please be weather-aware if you’re out and about today.

Welcome to June, and the beginning of the Atlantic hurricane season. Speaking of which, on our companion site The Eyewall, Matt lays out some reasons by you should be wary, but not decidedly worried about what’s expected to be a frenetic season. The good news is that things look quiet for now.

Today’s weather may not be quiet in Houston, however. As of 9:30 am this morning, a mass of showers and thunderstorms has developed to the southwest of Houston, near Palacios and Matagorda Bay. Generally, I expect these storms to lift to the north-northeast into the metro area later this morning and throughout the afternoon hours.

What does that mean? If you have activities planned from around 11 am to 7 pm today, you should be weather-aware. Considering variables such as atmospheric instability, I don’t think we’re looking at bedlam. Yes, there’s the potential for small hail or damaging winds, but conditions are not ideal for severe weather. So it’s a possibility. Perhaps a bigger concern is that some of the storms today may be slow-movers, so a few parts of Houston may see some rain bullseyes of 2 to 4 inches and some street flooding. For most of us, however, I think the impact will be less. In any case, it does appear as though things will start to clear out with the loss of daytime heating this evening.

I don’t feel overly confident in the forecast for Sunday, but it does seem possible that we could see some scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon hours, again, with daytime heating. Coverage should be less than today. If the forecast changes significantly for later today or Sunday, we’ll update as warranted. If not, we’ll see you on Monday morning.