Eric Berger

In brief: We rate today as one of the 10-best weather days in Houston this year, combining low humidity, moderate temperatures, and clear skies. Please enjoy. We’ll warm up for the rest of the week, with likely rain showers on Friday, and uncertain conditions this weekend.

A top 10 day

Opinions on the best kind of weather in Houston vary: some like it a hotter, some cooler; some people enjoy sunshine, others are in the mood for a cloudier day. But in my opinion, the best weather comes when we have clear-ish skies, low humidity, light winds, and temperatures in the mid-70s. Today will be one of those days, one of the 10 best weather days of the year. We are going to fall into that combination of ideal conditions for a few hours this afternoon, just before the onshore flow really gets pumping. It’s going to feel beautiful outside, and part of that beauty for me is knowing that it won’t last. A warmer and much more humid spell begins later this week and it will persist at least into the middle of next week. So as ever in Houston, perfection in our weather is fleeting.

Tuesday

We are starting today with chilly conditions, with low- to mid-50s in Houston and cooler temperatures further inland, but we are going to warm up nicely this afternoon. Highs will vary from the mid- to upper-70s with mostly sunny skies. Winds today will be from the northeast, at 5 to 10 mph, and gradually shift throughout the day to come from the southeast. Low temperatures tonight will fall to around 60 degrees in Houston, with slightly cooler conditions further inland, and a bit warmer closer to the coast.

Wednesday and Thursday

Both of these days should see high temperatures in the vicinity of 80 degrees. Wednesday will start out with somewhat low humidity levels, but these will be on the increase throughout the day. Similarly, with sky cover, we’ll see partly to mostly sunny skies on Wednesday transitioning to partly to mostly cloudy skies on Thursday. Both days will carry a low-end chance for rain showers, perhaps 10 or 20 percent, and I would not expect much in the way of accumulations.

Friday

From Friday onward, at least through Wednesday or so of next week, I would not expect much change in our temperatures. Daily highs will be in the vicinity of 80 degrees to the mid-80s, with overnight lows only reaching 70 degrees. The air will feel fairly humid, but below what we experience during the summer in Houston. Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy. So that leaves the question of rain. Will it? The answer for Friday is, very likely yes. I think a majority of Houston will at least see some sprinkles, with a fair bit of the city seeing showers. We also cannot rule out some thunderstorms but right now that is not a major concern. I think accumulations will be greater to the southwest of Houston, in places like Fort Bend and Southern Brazoria County, but we’ll see. Most of us will probably see tenths of inches of rain rather than inches.

Saturday and Sunday

The weather for this weekend remains uncertain. If we take an “average” forecast from the various models we probably are looking at a pair of partly sunny days with highs in the low 80s, and a fair amount of humidity. Each day, in this scenario, would have about a 30 percent chance of light showers. But there will be plenty of atmospheric moisture to play with, and while my base case is for a mostly rain free weekend, there is the possibility of more widespread showers, especially on Saturday. This is something we’re going to have to continue to watch and see.

Next week

Our warm and fairly humid weather continues next week. The first chance of a front, and I wouldn’t rate it very highly, does not arrive until Wednesday or Thursday at the earliest. So for the most part we’re looking at partly to mostly cloudy days, with humidity, and highs in the low-80s-ish. I think we’ll see daily rain chances in the 20 to 30 percent range, but I don’t feel particularly confident in that. Bottom line: If you like clear, cooler, and lower humidity conditions, today is the day for you.

In brief: Houston is continuing to experience cooler conditions in the wake of a front, and indeed temperatures tonight are likely to be the coldest the region experiences for the next six months. Some rain chances return later this week, but I’m hopeful they won’t be too impactful for the weekend.

Cool interlude

We are continuing to see a cool, northerly flow this morning and our pleasantly dry air will persist for about two more days. Tonight will be the coldest night of the forecast period, with low temperatures dropping into the 50 to 55 degree range for much of the metro area (except for the immediate coast), with some inland locations probably dropping into the upper 40s. Based on an expected warmer spell through the middle of April, I therefore expect this to be the coldest night not only of April, but probably for the next six months. Historically, we often don’t drop into the mid-50s, or lower, until at least mid-October. So open the windows and enjoy the ahhh that’s coming with this interlude of cooler and drier air.

Monday

Today is going to be a lovely day. Our skies will start out cloudy but should begin to clear out this morning before becoming mostly sunny this afternoon. Highs will reach the mid-70s for most locations, with a moderate northerly wind. With clear skies and light winds, conditions will be ideal for radiational cooling. This will allow temperatures to fall nicely tonight, with some exceptionally crisp air likely north and west of Houston. Also, a quick space update here: The Artemis II astronauts are flying around the Moon this afternoon! NASA will cover this live here.

Tuesday

Winds will shift to come from the east on Tuesday, but this will still be a fine, sunny day with highs likely in the upper 70s. As the moisture levels in the air creep up a little bit, our overnight low temperatures will be a few degrees warmer, likely only falling to about 60 degrees in Houston, with slightly cooler conditions for inland areas.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

Our temperatures will continue to inch upward this week, with highs likely around 80 degrees, and overnight lows rising from the mid-60s on Wednesday night to around 70 degrees by Friday night. Each of these days should see a fair bit of humidity, along with a mix of sunshine and clouds. Each day will also have a chance of showers, with Friday appearing to have the best odds at this point (perhaps 40 or 50 percent area-wide) due to a passing upper-level disturbance. In terms of accumulations it’s too early to say too much, but we probably are talking tenths of an inch of rain rather than actual inches. We’ll see.

Saturday and Sunday

There’s a lot going on this weekend, including the Art Car Parade on Saturday. At this time I expect lower rain chances for Saturday and Sunday (perhaps 30 percent?) along with partly sunny skies. So a passing shower is possible, but right now I don’t think sustained rainfall is likely. Temperatures should be a bit warmer, with highs in the lower 80s and fairly humid air. Overnight lows this weekend may only drop to around 70 degrees. The bottom line is that this weekend should be mostly fine for outdoor activities, but I want to wait a day or two before having full confidence in the forecast.

Next week

Most of next week should have temperatures in the low 80s with fairly humid air as well. Things are a bit fuzzy, but at this point I expect a couple of more chances for showers next week, so hopefully we can continue to put a dent into our area’s drought conditions.

In brief: I hope everyone is enjoying the weekend. Just a quick post this morning to update our thinking on the potential for storms later today, and what this all means for our weather on Easter Sunday.

Saturday and Saturday night

The Houston area radar should remain largely quiet this morning, but off to our northwest I expect an area of showers and thunderstorms to begin developing in the Brazos Valley. We may see a few scattered showers and thunderstorms in the Houston metro area this afternoon, but I suspect that this larger mass (or possibly line) of storms will not start moving into our region until 4 to 6 pm. The bulk of the storms will then move through between that time and around midnight, or shortly before.

What to expect? There is definitely the potential for some briefly strong thunderstorms, although the overall threat level for damaging winds and hail is not particularly high. I’m not ruling anything out, but I don’t anticipate that most of us will see those conditions. Heavy rain is also possible, but again I expect this to be fairly sporadic rather than widespread. However, if you are out and about this evening in a spot that does get hit, know that we could see some briefly backed up streets.

In terms of accumulations I expect widely varying totals. Some parts of Houston may get 2 inches, and other parts 2 tenths of an inch of rain between now and midnight. The signal for heavy rain is slightly stronger for areas north of I-10, but really anywhere is at risk. I’m hopeful that most of our area gets some much needed rain, but know that parts of Houston and surrounding counties will probably be disappointed.

Easter Sunday

The front will slog its way down to the coast during the overnight hours, and low temperatures should be in the upper 50s for most locations by sunrise on Sunday. Skies will be mostly cloudy and remain so throughout the holiday. If you see a speck of sunshine, count yourselves lucky. (So yes to bunny; no to sunny.) With some lingering moisture higher in the atmosphere, I expect that coastal areas (i.e. south of Interstate 10) could see some additional rain on Sunday. For the most part these rains should be light. Highs on Sunday will likely reach the mid-60s, or perhaps a touch higher. With lows on Sunday night dropping into the upper 50s, Monday night looks to be our coldest night of the week.

I hope everyone has an egg-cellent holiday and we’ll be back on Monday morning with our usual in-depth update.

In brief: In today’s post we discuss this evening’s liftoff of four astronauts to the Moon, with fine weather conditions expected for the launch window. Closer to home we remain in a warm and muggy pattern, although Houston will start to see increasing rain chances today. Saturday still looks dynamic ahead of a cooler and gray Easter Sunday.

Update on Artemis II

I’m in Florida this morning for the historic launch of Artemis II, during which four astronauts—who have been our neighbors here in Houston for at least the last decade—are scheduled to fly to the Moon. The two-hour launch window opens at 6:24 pm ET this evening, and local weather conditions are favorable for liftoff. There is always the chance of technical issues with the rocket or spacecraft, but if not, we’re sending humans back into deep space for the first time in more than 50 years. And these are really great people, Reid Wiseman, Victor Glover, Christina Koch, and Jeremy Hansen, whom we can all be proud of and cheer on. Following the launch window opening, there will be a full Moon at 8:11 pm ET. Seems fitting. My colleage and I at Ars Technica will be providing full coverage if you’re interested in knowing more.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

Alright, back to local weather. There won’t be much change over the next three days so I am lumping them together. We are going to see continued warm weather, with daytime highs in the range of the mid-80s, plenty of humidity, and very warm nights with temperatures only falling into the lower 70s. Southerly winds will also be frisky, gusting up to 25 mph or higher during the afternoon hours. We are also going to see some bonafide rain chances, but these showers will be very hit or miss. A few areas may see some afternoon thunderstorms whereas the majority of us only sees gray skies. Overall I expect most of Houston to pick up a tenth of an inch of rain, or two, over the next couple of days. But a few areas will get more.

Saturday and Sunday

Our weather this weekend will turn a bit more dynamic. We’re still outside the range of high-resolution models, but generally the picture is fairly straightforward. Saturday morning looks warm and muggy, but I don’t anticipate much in the way of shower activity. So basically a continuation of previous days.

However, rain chances will increase during the afternoon hours, with the greatest likelihood of rain from mid-afternoon on Saturday to the early morning hours on Easter Sunday. For now overall conditions are not particularly supportive for severe weather, with the primary threat heavy rain. I don’t want to over-set expectations here. My hope is that most of the region receives a good soaking, with 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rain. Given the high atmospheric levels we cannot exclude the possibility of heavy rainfall briefly backing up streets, but I don’t think this will be too much of an issue.

By Sunday morning it will feel cooler outside, with temperatures in the upper 50s for most locations. If the front lingers near the coast for awhile, we may see some scattered showers on Sunday morning, especially for areas along and south of Interstate 10. Skies should remain mostly cloudy regardless, with daytime highs in the upper 60s. Lows on Sunday night will drop into the mid-50s in Houston, with cooler conditions for outlying areas.

Next week

Fine, spring-like weather will hang on through the middle of next week, with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s. Daytime highs may rebound to around 80 degrees toward the end of next week, when some modest rain chances remain.