Eric Berger

In brief: In today’s post we discuss the city’s first freeze in 10 months, and how our region narrowly missed out on an Arctic blast. Our attention then turns to the potential for some light showers on Wednesday, and another brief incursion of cooler air Friday before a warm run-up to Christmas Day.

City officially records a brief freeze

It took most of the night, but according to unofficial data this morning, the thermometer at Bush Intercontinental Airport reached 32 degrees at 6:10 am CT Monday. This is the city’s first freeze since February 20. If we look at average freeze dates, since the official monitoring station was moved to Bush airport in 1969, the average date of the first freeze is December 4. So we are a little late this year, but not too late.

Not all of Houston fell below freezing this morning. Much of the city’s urban core along and south of I-10, as expected, appears to have remained just above freezing this morning. Galveston Island, as of sunrise, is a balmy 36 degrees. This is the peak of the cold for now, and probably will end up being our coldest day this December.

This front was part of fairly strong Arctic outbreak, but in the end this colder air was driven down into the United States and shoved east and southeast, rather than continuing all the way down into Texas. Accordingly we are seeing low 20s in southern Mississippi, Georgia, and the Carolinas this morning rather than Texas. That could easily have been us. This is plenty cold for me.

Monday

Although air temperatures are very chilly this morning, at least winds have fallen off. They will remain more or less light today and tonight, although they will subtly shift to come from the east. We will see mostly sunny skies today, with high temperatures in the mid-50s. Lows tonight should be 3 to 5 degrees warmer than Sunday night, so we do not anticipate another freeze in the region.

Tuesday

After a chilly start this will be a mostly cloudy day, with highs in the mid-60s. Southeasterly winds will herald the arrival of a more robust onshore flow. Lows on Tuesday night will only drop into the 50s.

Wednesday and Thursday

These will be a pair of warmer, and more humid days. Wednesday should have a few more clouds, and potentially some light showers (expect accumulations of less than one-quarter inch, for most), and this could help limit highs in the mid-70s. Thursday will have a little more sunshine, I think, and this may allow temperatures to push upwards of 80 degrees. At some point on Thursday night a cool front will push through, so we probably will wake up to chillier conditions on Friday morning. It should be a dry passage.

Friday

This will be a short-lived front, but it will make things feel seasonal on Friday. I’d expect morning lows in the vicinity of 50 degrees, followed by a sunny day in the 60s. Lows on Friday night should, once again, drop to around 50 degrees. This will likely be our final visitation of winter-like weather until after the Christmas holiday.

Saturday, Sunday, and beyond

After this the most likely scenario is about a week of warm and (for December) fairly humid weather. We are talking about highs in the 70s (possibly pushing 80 some days) and lows in the 60s. Skies will be partly cloudy with the occasional odd chance at some light rain showers. It is not completely out of the question that we see some sort of front during the run-up to Christmas, but at this point I would not put chances above 10 percent. So yeah, by far the most likely outcome for Christmas Day is highs in the upper 70s, with the potential for a foggy start. There is some evidence of a pattern change prior to the start of the new year, but that is far enough into the future such that I have low confidence in the forecast.

In brief: We’re interrupting your weekend because our confidence is increasing that a front arriving on Sunday morning will bring sharply colder temperatures on Sunday night into Monday morning. It now appears likely that much of the region will fall near to freezing, or a few degrees below.

The vast majority of the Houston region has yet to experience a freeze this season—the lowest temperature so far at Bush Intercontinental Airport has been 37 degrees—but that could change on Monday morning. For several days now it has been clear that a short-lived, but impactful front will push into Houston on Sunday. Now that we are closer to the front, however, we are beginning to get high-resolution data that continues to trend colder. It is clear that much of Houston, even within the urban core of the city, could see a light freeze for a couple of hours on Monday morning.

This is not the kind of freeze that is likely to knock power offline, or freeze pipes. We just are not going to get that cold, for that long. But this will be the first freeze of the season for much of the greater Houston metro area, and that means care should be taken for sensitive plants, and of course you should think about your pets.

We still don’t have great confidence of where the freeze line will fall, but I am reasonably confident that a majority of Montgomery and Chambers counties will freeze early on Monday morning. And I now think there is probably about a 50 percent chance that the majority of Harris County experiences a freeze. Chances are less likely for Galveston, Brazoria, and Fort Bend counties, but basically we’re not ruling anything out except for a place like, say, Galveston Island.

We will warm up into the low 50s on Monday, and Monday night should be at least a few degrees warmer. So the cold won’t last too long. And then we’re going to be quite a bit warmer for the run-up to Christmas morning.

In brief: In today’s post we discuss the return of fog, and some humidity. A sharp front arrives Sunday that will bring a chance of a light freeze into Houston. After that we’re going to warm up. Will some cooler air arrive in time for Christmas? Find out in our way-too-early Christmas Day forecast.

Christmas Day forecast

Don’t worry, Christmas shoppers. You still have 13 days before the holiday. Which means it is ridiculously early to try and forecast the weather (realistically, about 10 days is the limit). Nevertheless, readers have been asking, and we aim to deliver. Just understand that you’ve been warned, and there may more coal stocked in this forecast than candy.

As we’ve been saying for a couple of days now, the run-up to Christmas Day looks rather warm. Record highs in Houston are generally in the 81 to 83 range for the last 10 days of December, and beginning next weekend (Dec. 20 or Dec. 21) we are likely going to be flirting with this range of temperatures. We are reasonably confident in this forecast because high pressure patterns are fairly straightforward to predict.

At some point the pattern will break, and we will see a more winter-like pattern emerge. In late December it is more difficult for these highs to persist in this manner. However, we just can’t say whether a front will come on Christmas Eve, Christmas Day, or even later in the holiday week. For that reason I’m going to go with a forecast high of 80 degrees on Christmas, with fairly humid conditions and mostly cloudy skies. I would dearly love to be wrong about that, mind you.

Friday

Temperatures and dewpoints are basically the same this morning, in the low- to mid-50s, with calm winds. That’s a great recipe for dense fog, which is just what we’ve got. It should gradually diminish after sunrise, but it will be nuisance until then. We can expect more of this on Saturday and possibly Sunday mornings. Highs today will climb into the mid- to upper-70s today, with partly to mostly cloudy skies. With dewpoints rising into the 60s, it will feel modestly humid as well. Low temperatures tonight will only drop into the 60s.

Saturday

The first half of the weekend will be similarly warm and humid, with highs in the upper 70s. Skies will also be partly cloudy, although some clearing is possible during the afternoon hours. There is also a chance of some light showers during the daytime, perhaps 20 or 30 percent, so keep that in mind if you have outdoor plans. Saturday night also looks fairly warm and muggy.

Sunday

Temperatures will start out in the low- to mid-60s on Sunday morning, and that is where they will peak ahead of a fairly strong cold front. It will likely arrive around sunrise in Houston, a little before north of Interstate 10, and a little later closer to the coast. We could see some light showers with the front, although I’m not expecting anything at all serious in the way of accumulations. We’ll see clearing skies during the afternoon, along with winds gusting to perhaps 25 mph. These gusts should back off a bit during the evening hours.

Temperatures will drop throughout the day, accelerating during the late afternoon and evening hours. I expect lows for most of the city, except for the immediate coast, to reach the 30s by Monday morning. As for a freeze, it’s a good question. If you live in Montgomery or Chambers County, I think there’s probably at least a 50 percent chance of a freeze on Sunday night, whereas in the city of Houston and points south and west of Houston, the odds are quite a bit lower. We’ll do a short post this weekend updating you on the expected freeze line.

Next week

Monday will be cold, in the 50s, and mostly clear. We should see another chilly night, albeit in the low 40s, as the onshore flow resumes. By Wednesday our daytime temperatures will be solidly in the 70s. There is a slight hint in some of the models of a front in the Friday time frame of next week, but it’s not something I would count on. After that we’re into the warm run-up to Christmas I spoke about above.

Have a wonderful weekend, everyone!

In brief: In today’s post we discuss a warmup in our weather through Saturday, followed by a short but sharp cold front on Sunday. We also spend some time talking about how the week before Christmas is likely to bring warmer-than-normal weather.

A very early look at the weather preceding Christmas

I’m not ready to break out into “Mele Kalikimaka” yet—the Hawaiian-themed Christmas song popularized by Bing Crosby, and appearing in Christmas Vacation, among other movies—but the middle of December is starting to look somewhat warm. To be clear, we’re not there yet. We have some chilly mornings today and Thursday, and a cold front arriving on Sunday could pack a fairly sharp punch. Parts of Houston are likely to flirt with a freeze early next week.

But this morning I want to talk about what comes after this, during the week preceding Christmas beginning around December 18. That is within the edge of what is possible to forecast, and the data were seeing point to above average temperatures across Texas. It appears that high pressure will build over the western United States in a fairly stable pattern. I don’t think we’re looking at anything too crazy, but for the most part we can probably expect highs in the 70s, with lows in the 50s and 60s. A front or two could still sneak in, but overall we should be warmer than average. As for what happens by Christmas Day, it remains a little far out to say anything with confidence. Which means, of course, I’ll make a stupidly early Christmas forecast in the next day or two.

Wednesday

Temperatures this morning are generally in the mid- to upper-40s across Houston, with clear skies (it’s a beautiful sunrise, I must say). We are going to warm nicely this afternoon, into the low 70s for the most part. We would be well on our way to a significant warming trend, but for the fact that a reinforcing front will arrive today, with light winds shifting to come from the north this afternoon. This cooler air will allow temperatures to drop into the 40s tonight, with a few outlying areas possibly returning to the upper 30s. I don’t expect any rain, or possibly even any clouds, to accompany the front.

Thursday

This will be a sunny day, with highs in the 60s. As winds shift to come from the south we are going to see a warmer night, in the 50s.

Friday and Saturday

This period will be warmer, with a southerly flow off the Gulf. Look for daytime highs in the mid- to upper-70s, and nights with lows around 60 degrees. Skies will be partly sunny, with only very slight rain chances.

Sunday

Sunday is likely to start out moderately warm as well, but our confidence is now fairly high in a cold front dropping down from the north during the daytime. This will bring with it a decent shot of rain, but overall accumulations for most should be on the lower side, almost certainly less than half an inch (and probably less than this). In the wake of the front I expect a cold night. Temperatures probably will drop into the 40s in Houston, but there is a chance of falling all the way into the 30s. I’m not entirely ruling out a freeze for some inland locations, as we’ll just have to see how much cold Arctic air makes it into Texas, rather than being shunted off to the east before dropping this far south.

Next week

Monday and Tuesday of next week looks rather chilly before—as I wrote at the outset of this post—we see a warming trend that could stick around awhile.