Eric Berger

In brief: The overall forecast looks more ominous, with atmospheric conditions favoring another round of strong showers and thunderstorms later today and tonight in the Houston region. We are instituting a Stage 1 flood alert for the entire area, and may possibly upgrade that to Stage 2 for areas north of the city later today.

Wednesday

Conditions this morning will be fairly calm, with only a smattering of light showers across the region. Highs today will reach the mid-80s, with mostly cloudy skies. Winds from the southeast will be a little higher, at about 10 mph, with gusts to 20 mph.

However, our confidence is increasing in another bout of fairly strong showers and thunderstorms later today or tonight. These storms will likely fire up late this morning, or during the early afternoon to the west of Houston and then move through this evening or during the overnight hours. I want to stress there is a fair amount of uncertainty in the timing and location of these storms, which will bring the potential of damaging winds and heavy rain. Given this uncertainty, we will likely post an update this afternoon to the website.

At this time the greatest threat of heavy rainfall lies to the north of Interstate 10. However, some of the latest modeling and data point to a more widespread event that could bring heavy rainfall across the Houston metro area down to the coast. Regardless, I’m concerned about the potential for additional flooding along the East Fork of the San Jacinto River, which has already reached a major flood stage due to heavy rainfall earlier this week north of Houston.

In terms of rainfall accumulations, our model guidance is not at all consistent. Much of the area is likely to see an additional 1 to 3 inches of rainfall, but given the increasingly favorable setup for heavy rain I could see some locations picking up as much as 5 inches or more of rainfall tonight into Thursday morning. For now we are issuing a Stage 1 flood alert, which means nuisance street flooding mostly, for the entire Houston area. We may modify this later today.

Thursday

Rain chances will start to diminish during the morning hours on Thursday, but we’re likely to see some additional scattered showers throughout the day. Skies will again be mostly cloudy, with highs in the mid-80s. Lows Thursday night will be in the 70s—so fairly muggy and warm.

Friday

This will be another mostly cloudy day, with highs in the mid-80s and a chance of scattered showers and possibly a few thunderstorms. Rain chances should end at some point on Friday.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend looks partly sunny and a bit warmer, with highs in the mid- to upper-80s depending on the extent of sunshine. Winds will be from the south-southeast, gusting up to 20 or 25 mph so there should be a breeze all weekend. With low to non-existent rain chances, the region will get a chance to dry out.

Next week

No changes in the forecast for next week as high pressure settles in. We can expect warmer weather, with highs likely reaching 90 degrees by Tuesday or Wednesday. The rest of the week looks warm and muggy with low rain chances. I’m hopeful that a weak front may arrive in time to cool us down slightly by next weekend, but that is something I certainly would not bet on.

In brief: Expect another mild day today before decent rain chances return Wednesday through the end of the work week. These are likely to be garden-variety showers rather than anything too intense or organized. The weekend looks warmer and sunnier, and after that the story will become one of increasingly hot temperatures.

Tuesday

Today will see rather mild conditions. Expect highs, generally, in the mid-80s. Skies will be partly sunny for much of the day, with relatively light south-southeasterly winds. A few scattered to isolated showers will be possible, but most of the region should remain dry. Lows tonight will be a few degrees warmer, likely dropping only into the low 70s.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

The latter half of the work week will turn more unsettled, as a series of disturbances pass overhead. At this point I can’t pinpoint which of these three days will have the best rain chances, but daily odds are likely on the order of 30 to 50 percent. We are not looking at anything too crazy, with accumulations of 1 inch or less likely for most of the region.

Skies each day will bring a mix of clouds and sunshine, although clouds are likely to be more the norm during the morning, with a better chance of some sun breaking through during the afternoon hours. Highs will generally slot into the mid-80s, with warm and humid nights. Winds will be from the southeast, generally, with some occasionally gusty conditions.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend looks sunnier and warmer, with highs in the mid- to upper 80s. Rain chances should slacken this weekend as high pressure begins to take hold, but I can’t rule out a few stray showers. That will have implications for our weather next week.

Next week

And those implications, as you might guess, are such that we’ll see warm if not hot conditions. As high pressure builds we are likely to see our first 90-degree readings of the year by Tuesday or so of next week. Lows will only drop into the mid-70s. High pressure should also shut down rain chances for most of next week as well. Summer, one might say, is coming…

In brief: We discuss heavy rainfall north of Houston, and lesser accumulations in Houston. After this morning we’ll see a reprieve from showers, but starting Tuesday or Wednesday we’ll see decent chances for the remainder of the week. The weekend should see clearing skies and warmer temperatures, so the early beach outlook is favorable.

The boundary that produced significant rainfall overnight is exiting the area, but it has done its damage in terms of heavy rainfall to the north of Houston. Two areas, one from College Station to Madisonville, and another northeast of Huntsville, recorded 10 inches of rainfall during the last 24 hours. Some rivers and bayous in this area are likely to reach a moderate flood stage over the next day or so.

Closer to Houston, the high-water mark came near Baytown and Mont Belvieu, with a few areas recording 5 to 7 inches. Rainfall amounts were widely variable, as some areas of just west of Houston picked up less than half an inch. But all in all it was a wet night. Too wet for some areas, with ongoing flooding occurring north of Houston, but still some much-needed rain for most locations. The remainder of spring should be nice and green in our region.

Monday

The line of storms has moved well to the east of Houston this morning, but we’re seeing some lingering showers, and these could continue for coastal areas through the morning hours. Later today we’ll see clearing skies, and this is likely to be our best chance for guaranteed sunshine this week, at least until the weekend. One welcome change this morning is much lighter winds, which will blow today from the east-southeast at 5 to 10 mph. Highs will reach into the mid-80s, with a few locations popping into the upper-80s depending on sunshine. Rain chances remain low this evening and overnight, with temperatures dropping to around 70 degrees in Houston.

Tuesday and Wednesday

The overall pattern remains unsettled this week, with the absence of a strong high pressure system. As a result we’ll see continued decent rain chances, on the order of 30 percent daily. I don’t expect anything too organized, and for the most part these should be scattered, garden-variety showers. Highs both days will be in the low- to mid-80s with mostly cloudy skies. Nights will be warm, in the low 70s.

Thursday and Friday

We’ll see a continued partly to mostly cloudy pattern to end the work week, but rain chances will inch up a bit. Again, I’m not expecting a deluge, but daily rain chances will likely be on the order of 40 to 50 percent. Accumulations should be greatest north of Houston. Look for highs in the mid-80s, depending on how much sunshine breaks through during the afternoon hours. Southerly winds will pick up a bit toward the end of the week, with some gusts of 20 or 25 mph possible.

Saturday and Sunday

Rain chances should diminish some this weekend, with a corresponding increase in sunshine. We’ll still see some clouds, but there probably will be more blue skies, and there appears to be only a slight chance of rain at this point. Look for highs in the 80s, perhaps upper 80s, with plenty of humidity to spare. All in all, a good pool or beach weekend for early May.

Next week

Could we see our first temperatures in the 90s next week? Quite possibly. The first full week of May looks fairly sunny, and fairly warm. We could see the onset of summer lite in Houston if current trends hold.

In brief: The good news is that the worst of the wind is over. We will still see strongish south-southeasterly winds today, but the gusts will be lower than on Saturday. And winds will certainly be much calmer on Monday. However, before that the region faces a decent chance of storms, including severe thunderstorms, particularly during the overnight hours.

At present there is a line of storms essentially along the Interstate 35 corridor. This system will move eastward today, but it will do so in fits and starts. And truth be told there is a lot of uncertainty about the impact of these storms due to a capping inversion, and how long it takes to break. (A capping inversion prevents warm air at the surface from rising, an essential element in the development of thunderstorms).

My best guess for what happens is that the greater Houston area sees scattered showers during the daytime today, with a few isolated thunderstorms. Nothing too impactful. Highs will reach the mid-80s with mostly cloudy skies. Beginning later this afternoon locations such as College Station and Conroe will see a better chance of thunderstorms. During the late evening hours, which is to say probably a couple of hours before midnight, a larger mass of showers will develop to the north of Houston and then sag southward toward the coast, and eastward toward Beaumont. They’re likely to exit the Houston area by sunrise on Monday.

We’ll see the usual threats with these storms: heavy rainfall, damaging winds, and the potential for a few tornadoes. The threat for severe weather is greater for inland areas, where the capping inversion looks weaker, than it is the coast. But all of the area will have the chance to see some thunderstorms later tonight. In terms of rainfall, I expect totals to vary widely. Some areas may pick up as much as 3 inches or more, but most of the area probably receives 0.5 to 1.5 inch. A few coastal locations may remain dry. There’s big boom-bust energy tonight.

Monday should be warm, but mostly rain-free.