Eric Berger

In brief: In the absence of high pressure, Houston’s atmosphere remains open to the passing of shortwave disturbances over the coming days. At this point Friday looks like it could see the most organized showers and thunderstorms, and the greatest chance of damaging winds, hail, and heavy rainfall. By Sunday storm chances start to wane, with next week looking warmer and mostly sunny.

Thursday

Skies will be partly sunny today, with high temperatures in the upper 80s. Like on Wednesday, this daytime heating should lead to the development of showers and thunderstorms during the period of 3 to 9 pm. Some of these could become severe. However, at this time I think chances are better along and north of Interstate 10, rather than closer to the coast. (Speaking of coastal areas, I wanted to shout-out the senior class of Clear Creek High School, where I’ve gotten to know a lot of great kids. Enjoy graduation this evening!) Lows tonight will be in the upper 70s.

Like on Wednesday, we’ll be monitoring the potential for storm development closely, and if the forecast for today or Friday changes significantly we will update the site accordingly this afternoon.

Friday

At this point it looks like a more organized round of storms will move into the Houston area on Friday morning, likely sweeping into Houston around sunrise, give or take. This system will offer the best chance of severe weather, including damaging winds and hail. Depending on the severity of this system, there may be a second round of storms with daytime heating in the afternoon. (I.e. if the morning storms are weaker, there will be a better chance of a second round later in the day). Bottom line: If you need to be out and about tomorrow morning, be weather aware.

I would guess that most of Houston see an additional 1 to 2 inches of rain through Friday, but my concern is for higher bullseyes in stronger thunderstorms. At this point, Friday evening looks to see a break in showers. Daytime highs will be in the upper 80s.

Saturday

Our atmosphere will remain unsettled into the weekend, especially for Saturday. I don’t have much confidence in the details yet, but we could see another round of showers during the daytime on Saturday. These storms, at this point, do not look particularly severe. Highs, otherwise, should be around 90 degrees with partly sunny skies.

Sunday

We may see some additional showers on Sunday morning, but I’m far from confident in that. Skies, otherwise, should be partly sunny with temperatures in the low 90s. If you have outdoor plans later in the day or evening on Sunday, I’d feel at least somewhat confident in them.

Next week

As high pressure settles in next week we’ll revert to mostly sunny skies and warmer temperatures. Highs should be pushing into the mid-90s toward the end of the week. Rain chances are low, probably close to zero. So it goes in summer under such a pressure system.

In brief: Although we are unlikely to see a system as organized as the storms on Tuesday, we’ll continue to see daily shower and thunderstorms chances this week as Houston’s overall pattern remains unsettled. On the plus side, this weather should help to keep high temperatures in the upper 80s into the weekend.

Tuesday’s storms brought numerous reports of hail, some of which was as large as ping pong balls, as a system raced across Houston from north to south. Intense, albeit short-lived rainfall also flooded some Houston streets during the afternoon hours. And then there were the winds, with the highest gust observed at Bush Intercontinental Airport, 75 mph. (See more values here). According to CenterPoint, they’ve managed to restore power to a majority of the approximately 300,000 customers who lost power, but 37,000 remain without electricity this morning.

We will continue to monitor storm chances this week closely, and will update Space City Weather when warranted.

Wednesday

With a fair amount of moisture in the atmosphere, and the absence of high pressure, we’ll see conditions somewhat favorable for the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon at the peak of daytime heating. The most likely time for such storms will be from about 3 pm to 9 pm this afternoon, and a few of these cells could produce some hail or damaging winds. But for most areas the impact should be less than this. Otherwise, we’ll see mostly cloudy skies, with light easterly winds. Low temperatures tonight will drop into the upper 70s.

Thursday

With a similar atmospheric setup, I expect Thursday to be similar to Wednesday with development of showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. Again, this activity looks to be fairly scattered, but we’ll be watching closely for potential changes to this forecast. Highs should be in the upper 80s again for most of the area.

Friday

Overall chances for strong thunderstorms may be a little higher on Friday, both in terms of wind and hail, but also the threat of heavy rainfall. However, the details are fuzzy, so for now the best we can say is that Friday may be messy. Look for highs in the upper 80s.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend should bring with it partly sunny skies and highs in the upper 80s to about 90 degrees for most of Houston. We’ll continue to see passing disturbances that may bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms. But ultimately, whether that happens during the daytime or the overnight hours is difficult to say. If you have outdoor plans this weekend I’d have some hope that they’ll come off, but also a backup plan. Hopefully we’ll have more confidence in a weekend forecast, with timing details, in a day or two.

Next week

Daily storm chances diminish next week, as we see more sunshine. Rain chances may not go away entirely, but they should be lower, perhaps on the order of 10 to 20 percent daily. As a result daily highs will start climbing, first into the low 90s early next week, to possibly mid-90s by the end of the week. We shall see.

Note

Please check back at 10 am this morning for the release of our monthly Q&A. Hope you like this one!

In brief: A line of severe storms is likely to affect much of the greater Houston area this afternoon. Please be weather aware as you venture out between now and about 5 pm CT.

As of noon, a strong line of thunderstorms has developed near College Station and Huntsville, and it should move steadily southward this afternoon. The time of most concern for the Houston metro area will be from 1 pm to 5 pm, as the system pushes into central parts of the city and down to the coast. Not all of Houston will see severe weather, but a good portion of the metro area is likely to be affected.

Please note that, as of this time, we are not expecting the derecho-like weather that Houston experienced about 10 days ago. However, there is the potential for severe thunderstorms, and that includes the usual threats.

In terms of rainfall, I expect that much of the area will receive 1 to 3 inches, but as these storms move into Houston they could slow somewhat due to interaction with the Gulf of Mexico seabreeze. In this case we could see some higher isolated totals of 4 or more inches of rainfall. As for hail, I think a high-end size would be ping pong ball-sized hail. Straight-line winds could reach up to 60 mph. It is also possible that we see some isolated tornadoes.

The worst of this mess should push through by the late afternoon or early evening hours. As a result of this storm system, my expectation is for quieter weather tonight.

Matt and I will be tracking these storms closely, and if there are changes in the forecast we will update the site.

In brief: Yes, you are not crazy. Monday did feel incredibly hot outside, and the smoky haze from agricultural fires in Central America did not help. We’re now going to see a pattern change that could bring storms into the metro area as early as this afternoon. Today will be a day to be weather aware and we’ll update the site again by around noon.

Memorial Day madness

Houston did not set record high temperatures on Monday. The official high at Bush Intercontinental was 96 degrees, two degrees shy of the all time high of 98 degrees for May 27. However, it felt extremely warm thanks to incredibly high dewpoints. For example, at Houston’s Hobby Airport the heat index reached 115 degrees. This is a combination of temperature and relative humidity.

Even if you don’t have context for how hot that is—and believe me, it’s hot—Houston has never had a heat index of 115 degrees in May before. Moreover, Hobby Airport did not have a heat index that warm during all of last summer, which was excruciatingly hot. You’ve got to go all the way back to August of 1998 for a reading that high. Last summer recorded much hotter temperatures, but the humidity was somewhat lower, in part due to drought-like conditions. Fortunately, we’re now going to step back from the abyss of extreme heat for awhile.

Tuesday

Today will not be nearly so hot. Partly cloudy skies will help to moderate temperatures a bit, although we are still likely to see highs in the low 90s with plenty of humidity. The difficult question is severe weather potential, with the possibility of storms this afternoon, and then again overnight. As of 6:30 am CT there was a cluster of storms near Dallas, moving southward. The question is what happens to this system, and whether it holds together long enough to affect the Houston area. There has been a lack of consistency in our guidance.

Right now my sense is that this system will hold together as it approaches our northern areas, such as Conroe and College Station, shortly after noon. Then we could see this line of severe weather move from north to south, with strong thunderstorms, wind, and hail pushing into Houston during the afternoon hours. It could reach the coast by 4 or 5 pm. The usual severe storm risks are there, with heavy rainfall, damaging, winds, hail, and possibly a few tornadoes. We will update the site by around noon when we have more confidence in this forecast.

Then there is the potential for a second round of storms tonight after midnight. However, this is probably conditional on what happens this afternoon. I.e. if we get a fairly pronounced line of storms this afternoon, things will be quieter tonight. But if storms peter out later today before reaching Houston, a more pronounced line of storms could pass through tonight.

Wednesday and Thursday

These should be a pair of partly to mostly cloudy days, which will help limit highs to the upper 80s. Each day will also see a healthy chance of showers, although the likelihood of severe weather appears to be considerably lower. Nights will be warm, in the upper 70s.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

The end of the week and the weekend look slightly warmer, with daily highs of around 90 degrees and partly sunny days. The atmosphere will remain somewhat unsettled, but daily rain chances will drop to perhaps 30 percent, so if you have outdoor plans this weekend I don’t see anything like a total washout at this point. Let’s see how the forecast evolves.