Eric Berger

Summary: In today’s post we dive into the eclipse forecast for next Monday, which for Texas is frankly not very good. As for our weather in Houston, we’ll see a warm day ahead of a front on Tuesday. That should bring us lovely, spring-like weather for the rest of this week.

Total solar eclipse

Although we are still a week away from the total solar eclipse on April 8, which will take place at approximately 1:30 to 1:40 pm CT for much of the line of totality across Texas, the forecast is pretty grim. Locally, in Houston, about 94 percent of the Sun will be covered on Monday at the peak of the eclipse. My preliminary forecast for next Monday is scattered to widespread rain showers with mostly cloudy skies. For areas along the line of totality in Texas, the outlook is not much better. The operational runs of both the GFS and European models have, consistently, shown nearly 100 percent cloud cover across much of the state during the early afternoon hours on Monday. There is a fair amount of support for this in the ensembles as an upper-level system crosses the southern plains. Many of these areas could see rain on Monday.

The map below shows the ensemble forecast for percent of the sky covered in clouds on Monday at 1 pm CT. For nearly all of the totality path in Texas, the value is about 75 percent. However, given the consistency in the operational models, I would lean toward a value higher than that at this time.

About this I would say a couple of things. First of all, we’re still a week out. Forecasts can and do change. But this is not a good place to be seven days from the total eclipse. If you really want to see the eclipse with clear skies, the northeastern United States looks like your best bet. Secondly, if you’re staying in Texas, the eclipse will still be quite a treat even with poor weather. Along the line of totality the sky will still get completely dark in the middle of the day, which will be an eerie experience indeed.

We’ll continue to track the eclipse forecast in the days ahead.

Monday

Today will be warm, but not quite as warm as we’ve been anticipating. Mostly cloudy skies should help to limit highs to the mid-80s for much of Houston. It will be a breezy day, with southerly winds at about 15 mph, and gusts up to 25 or even 30 mph. Low temperatures tonight will only drop to about 70 degrees. There will be about a 20 percent chance of showers tonight, and an even lesser likelihood of isolated thunderstorms ahead of an approaching front.

Tuesday

The front should push into Houston during the morning hours on Tuesday, reaching the coast by around noon. We’ll see an additional, low chance of rain with the front’s passage, but then we’ll see quickly clearing skies and drier air moving in with northwesterly winds. These clearer skies will allow highs to briefly reach the lower 80s, but lows will drop into the 50s on Tuesday night.

Wednesday and Thursday

These will be a pair of gorgeous spring-like days. We’re talking highs in the low- to mid-70s, plenty of dry air, and lots of sunshine. Lows on both nights should drop into the low 50s in Houston, with cooler conditions for outlying areas. Seriously, these look like A+ days.

Friday

This will be another nice day, with highs of about 80 degrees. A few scattered clouds will be possible with the return of the onshore flow, and lows on Friday night will drop to around 60 degrees.

Saturday and Sunday

Both of these days should see highs of around 80 degrees, with partly sunny skies. Sunday will see a decent amount of humidity, and we cannot entirely rule out some light rain showers later in the day. But for the most part, the weekend looks excellent for outdoor activities.

Next week

As mentioned above, rain chances start to increase on Monday, and through the early part of next week, in response to an upper-level system. It’s still too early to have too much confidence, but we’re talking days in the low 80s before a weak front (probably) arrives in the middle of the week.

Summary: After a chilly start Houston is going to see a very fine day of weather. Then we’ll see a warming trend through the weekend. Some clouds will mar festivities on Easter Sunday, but otherwise it should be a mild day. In this post we also take our first real look at an eclipse cloud cover forecast.

Thursday

After a chilly start to the day—for one of the last times this season much of Houston is seeing temperatures in the 40s—we’ll warm nicely with highs reaching the mid-70s. With plenty of dry air in place, this will be another one of those A+ days in Houston, so expect another fine evening. The only concern is air quality, with an Ozone Action Day in place. This is due, in part, to very light winds at the surface. With those winds turning more southerly, expect a bit warmer conditions tonight, with lows mostly in the 50s.

Friday

This will be another sunny, pleasant day. Temperatures will be slightly warmer, in the upper 70s. Southerly winds will also be more noticeable from the south, gusting perhaps to 20 mph. Lows on Friday night will drop down to around 60 degrees.

Saturday

The warming trend continues this weekend as the onshore flow remains in place. Highs on Saturday will be around 80 degrees, with partly to mostly sunny skies. As dewpoints will be around 60 degrees, the air will still feel reasonably dry. Lows on Saturday night will only drop into the upper 60s.

Easter Sunday

Sunday won’t be warm enough to boil an egg, but highs should reach into the low 80s despite partly to mostly cloudy skies. Along with the clouds, winds on Sunday will be a bit gusty from the south. Still there are no concerns about rain or other activities that might preclude egg hunting or bunny hopping. Lows on Sunday night will be mild indeed, dropping only to about 70 degrees.

Monday

The start of the next week will be quite warm, as highs push into the mid- to upper-80s. Could a few inland areas briefly touch 90 degrees? Yes, they could. But I think mostly cloudy skies will inhibit that kind of warming for most of the region. Still, this day will be a reminder that summer is not all that far off as we exit March.

Next week

A front arrives early next week, probably on Tuesday, to bring back more spring-like weather. This likely means highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s for a few days with some drier air. So, nice. There’s not much of a chance of rain with this front it looks like, but that’s not a hard-boiled fact yet.

Eclipse weather

Alright, we’re just on the bleeding edge of having some sense of what to expect for April 8, 2024, when a total eclipse traverses the central part of the state. For those interested in the national outlook, Matt is providing regular updates at The Eyewall. His general conclusion that it’s too early to say anything remotely definitive. And I agree.

Here’s what I can say about Texas. After the front moves into Texas next week, we’re going to see several days of clear weather across the state, from roughly Tuesday through Friday. And after that? The majority of models cloud things up heading into next weekend. At that point we’re really beyond the stage of reliability predictability. For what it’s worth, which is not much, the global model ensembles are showing an average of about 50 to 60 percent cloud cover for the early afternoon of April 8. Generally, the further southwest one goes in the state, the better. And for the time being, at least, Texas looks to be in a little better situation than much of the rest of the country.

We should have something more sensible to say about all of this in Monday’s update.

Summary: Tuesday was one of the nicest days of the year in Houston—I don’t think there was anything to complain about at all. We’re going to see some clouds return today, with a slight chance of showers. But then Thursday and Friday look to bring fantastic weather as well. Houston will warm up with some humidity returning this weekend.

Wednesday

We are going to briefly interrupt our mostly sunny weather with a cloudier day. Typically we see clouds return to Houston with the onshore flow, but in this case we’re still seeing a decidedly northerly flow across the region at the surface, with dry air continuing to move in. So what gives? The answer is that the winds in the mid- and upper-levels of the atmosphere are more southwesterly, and in response to a large upper-level system we’ll see some atmospheric disturbances push through the area today.

This should produce mostly cloudy skies during the daytime hours, and help limit highs to about 70 degrees. It will also allow for a slight chance of rain, perhaps 20 percent, later today. For the most part these showers should be very light. With the dry air in place, and clearing skies, lows tonight should again drop down to near 50 degrees in Houston.

Thursday

The sunny weather is back, with highs in the mid- to upper-70s. As northerly winds shift to come from the south, lows on Thursday night will be a few degrees warmer.

Friday

Another sunny day, with highs in the upper-70s. Southerly winds will be a bit more pronounced, perhaps gusting up to 25 mph. Lows on Friday night will drop to around 60 degrees.

Saturday

The first half of the weekend should bring mostly sunny skies, with highs of around 80 degrees. With the onshore flow in place we’ll see a bit more humidity, but dewpoints will still be far from oppressive. Lows on Saturday night will only drop into the upper 60s.

Sunday

The latter half of the weekend is going to see less sunshine, and more humidity. Look for highs in the low-80s, and a warm night with the temperature falling only to around 70 degrees.

Next week

Monday and Tuesday look warm and muggy next week, with highs in the vicinity of the mid- to upper-80s. This will feel like “summer lite” in Houston, but won’t last as it looks like another front will arrive some time on Tuesday. Some moderate rainfall is possible with this front, but I don’t feel confident in the details. We should return to pleasant spring-like weather for the second half of next week.

Summary: With clear skies, there was a strange sight in the sky over Houston on Monday shortly after sunset. We explain what that was. Beyond this briefly unidentified flying object, we’ve got a full week of spring-like weather before warming conditions this weekend and early next week. Rain chances are low throughout the period.

It’s a Bird… It’s a Plane… ?

A little before 8:30 pm CT on Monday evening a bright light appeared in the skies over Houston. It did not streak like a meteor, but rather moved overheard and then appeared to emit a puff of gas before dimming and then fading away. I did not see it myself, but received several questions about it in the immediate aftermath. So was this a UFO?

For a short time it was unidentified. However, I soon pieced together that it was related to a Falcon 9 launch that had taken place from Cape Canaveral, Florida, earlier in the evening. As you may know, the rocket’s first stage launches, and when its fuel is mostly spent, the second stage of the rocket separates. This first stage then makes a controlled descent to the ocean and then lands on a drone ship. So this was not the first stage over Texas, but rather the second stage.

Full video pic.twitter.com/08a2DJLghc

— Adam Cuker (@AdamCuker) March 26, 2024

After separation this upper stage had continued on to orbit and then released its payload of about two dozen Starlink internet satellites. This second stage, however, is not left to zip around orbit indefinitely. Rather it makes a ‘deorbit burn’ to return into Earth’s atmosphere and burn up. In this case, Texans—for it was visible as far away as Austin, as seen above—were seeing this deorbit burn. The remnants of the second stage then splashed down in the Atlantic Ocean several minutes later. This has happened before over Texas, but typically it occurs further south and west of Houston and is not visible here.

Tuesday

The clear skies that allowed Houston to see the Falcon 9 rocket’s upper stage on Monday night will carry over into today. We’ll see mostly sunny skies and another clear night. Highs today will reach the low 70s, with modest northerly winds of about 10 mph. Temperatures tonight should be a touch cooler than Monday night, dropping down to nearly 50 degrees.

Wednesday

This day will be a bit more interesting, weather-wise. An upper-level disturbance will provide a bit of lift in the atmosphere, and this will allow for the formation of some clouds during the daytime hours. There is even the slight chance, perhaps 10 percent, of a light shower during the late afternoon or early evening. Highs, otherwise, will be in the low 70s. Skies should clear out again overnight, again allowing lows to drop to nearly 50 degrees overnight.

Thursday

A sunny and pleasant day, with highs in the mid-70s. Winds will be light and the air dry, but there will be a subtle shift as winds turn to come from the south. Lows on Thursday night will be warmer, likely in the upper 50s in Houston.

Friday

Another day with mostly sunny skies, probably. Highs will be a bit warmer, in the upper 70s, and a touch more humidity in the air with the modest southerly flow. Winds likely will be a bit more pronounced, at 15 mph with higher gusts.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend will be warmer, with highs around 80 degrees on Saturday, and the low 80s on Sunday. We’ll also see a mix of sunshine and clouds, with Saturday more likely to have sunshine than Sunday. Also, by Sunday, the air will be fairly humid with dewpoints in the 60s. Still, all of this is relative. Compared to July, this weekend will be quite mild. Both days should see a fairly pronounced southerly wind.

Next week

Monday and possibly Tuesday look rather warm, in the upper 80s, before a front arrives to cool us down some. At this point overall rain chances with the front look fairly low. After the front we should see some days in the 70s and nights in the 50s, maybe.

Eclipse weather

Over at The Eyewall, Matt has a very preliminary look at the cloud cover forecast for the solar eclipse on April 8, across the United States. Short answer: It’s complicated. And we don’t know much yet.