Eric Berger

In brief: Today’s post discusses what may be our nicest Halloween forecast, ever. We also talk about the potential for some showers on Saturday (more likely closer to the coast), and gradually warming conditions during the second half of next week.

Halloween outlook

I have been writing about the weather in Houston for more than two decades. Almost every year on Halloween there is some concern, be it the potential for rain, or humidity, or winds, or something. This year, we have absolutely zero concerns. Temperatures near sunset? Mild, in the upper 60s. Skies? Clear. Winds? Light, maybe 5 mph from the north. Humidity? Haha, there will be none. Seriously, enjoy the very fine evening.

Friday

We’re starting out with the region’s coldest weather in more than half a year, with much of the area falling into the 40s. Skies will be sunny today, with extraordinarily pleasant highs in the mid-70s, and light winds. Today is one of the region’s top-10 weather days of the year. Lows tonight will be several degrees warmer than Thursday night as winds shift to come from the southeast. Most of the region will drop into the low- to mid-50s.

Saturday

This will be a bit of a cloudier day, as the onshore flow resumes and moisture returns. The question is, will there be enough moisture to support showers as a reinforcing front pushes into the area? For areas north of Interstate 10, I think the answer is probably not. But for areas along and south of the freeway, especially down closer to the coast, there is perhaps a 40 percent chance of some showers during the afternoon and evening hours. I don’t think we are going to see anything severe, but a few tenths of an inch of rain are possible. Highs Saturday will be in the mid-70s, with lows falling into the lower 50s for most.

Sunday

A fine, sunny day with highs in the low- to mid-70s. Expect modest northerly winds (nothing like Wednesday) as cooler air from the front arrives. Lows on Sunday night will drop into the lower 50s.

Next week

We’ll be in the 70s for a couple of days next week before a warming trend into the lower 80s. Overnight lows will recover by the second half of the week, likely into the low 60s. Rain chances look low throughout most of the period. It’s possible that a weak front arrives by Friday or Saturday, bringing a bit higher chance of rain, but I don’t have much confidence in the forecast at that point. We’ll be back on Monday with better information—hopefully! Have a great weekend, everyone.

In the spirit of Halloween, a message from Reliant

• Beware the Vampire Power: Halloween isn’t the only time vampires lurk around your home. They can be hiding in your outlets year-round. These “vampire loads” happen when devices like chargers, computers and other electronics draw small amounts of electricity even when turned off. So, does shutting down your computer and phone at night really help? Yes! Restarting them in the morning uses only a tiny amount of energy compared to leaving them plugged in overnight. To keep those energy-sucking vampires at bay, unplug chargers or use a smart power strip to fully cut power. Savings may be modest, but it’s a small step toward a more energy-conscious home.
• A Smarter Way to Scare (and Save): Reliant’s Smarter Home Bundle brings energy efficiency and security together, perfect for those eerie doorbell recordings when trick-or-treaters come calling this Friday. With Vivint’s smart technology, you can monitor your home, manage energy use and even catch those costumed creatures on camera. And don’t miss the limited-edition spooky Halloween Chimes available this week for the Doorbell Camera Pro! Spooky laugh, witch laugh, howling and more!

In brief: In today’s update we discuss the ‘why’ behind today’s strong winds, and how cold it will get tonight. We also take a look at our sunny conditions into Saturday, when there is another chance of rain with a secondary front.

A gusty day

Houston will experience a very windy day today, with gusts this afternoon up to 40 mph or higher. This is the first time we have seen a really strong influx of colder and drier air this season, and you may be wondering why? The answer has to do with pressure systems, and particularly the circulation of air around a strong low pressure system bounded by a high pressure system.

In this case the low associated with Tuesday evening’s front has continued moving eastward. We are now effectively on the “back side” of this low, with strong high pressure building behind it. Today, therefore, we are seeing strong wrap around winds behind the low, with a tight pressure gradient (note the high over west Texas). This has created a superhighway for north-northwesterly winds that will peak this afternoon before finally ebbing late tonight. That sound you hear outside is fall blowing in.

Wednesday

Besides the wind, we are going to see much cooler temperatures today. In fact our highs in the mid- to upper-60s today will be cooler than about half of our nights so far this month. Gusty winds will build this morning and peak during the afternoon hours, with gusts up to 40 or possibly 45 mph possible.

With the setting sun this evening, lows tonight will quickly cool to around 50 degrees in the most urban parts of Houston, with outlying areas dropping into the 40s. It will be our coldest night in more than six months. Winds should begin to slacken this evening, and fall back toward more normal levels by Thursday morning.

Thursday

This will be a sunny and fine day, with lighter northerly winds and highs around 70 degrees. Thursday night’s lows may be a degree or so cooler than Wednesday night with ideal radiational cooling.

Friday

Halloween weather will be anything but spooky, with highs in the mid-70s and pure sunshine. Evening temperatures will be the 60s, with light winds. Overnight lows will drop into the 50s.

Saturday

The onshore flow resumes on Friday or Friday night, and so we’ll start to see the return of some moisture. The question is how much, because a weaker front is going to advance toward the area, and if there is enough moisture it is likely to produce some showers (and possibly a few thunderstorms). Given the uncertainty, there are corresponding questions about Saturday’s weather. For now I expect highs in the 70s, with mostly clear skies through the early afternoon. However I would say there is probably a 50 percent chance of showers later in the afternoon, evening, or overnight hours, and at this point I can’t rule out a few thunderstorms. We’ll keep an eye on things. Lows on Saturday night drop into the 50s.

Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday

These look like a trio of pleasant days in the wake of that secondary front, with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s, with moderate levels of humidity. Sunshine should reign supreme.

Later next week

Temperatures may recover some later next week, with highs around 80 and lows in the vicinity of 60 degrees. We shall see.

In brief: Today’s update covers a lot of ground, from what a real fall front should feel like, to a chance of storms this evening, and just how cold it will get in the coming days. We also briefly discuss the catastrophic Hurricane Melissa.

What ‘real’ front should feel like

Houston has seen several cool fronts this fall, but we have always characterized them as weak. This is because they have mostly been ‘back door’ fronts in which a nose of drier air has pushed down into the region from the northeast, rather than the northwest. Typically these fronts have brought not abrupt change in winds or rapid drops in temperatures. This stands in contrast to the type of cold front that most of us think of, when a much cooler pool of air spills down from the north and northwest. If you happen to be standing outside when such a front passes you can feel it because there is an abrupt change in winds, and an almost immediate influx of cooler and drier air. Well, I am happy to report, that is the kind front we will experience today, along with a sustained stretch of cooler and drier weather in its wake.

Tuesday

Ahead of the front we are going to see a rather warm day, partly due to compressional heating as the front advances southward. Skies will be mostly sunny, with high temperatures reaching the upper 80s for much of the region. Winds will be generally light, from the south. The front itself will drop into the city this afternoon, and push off the coast this evening. I don’t think there will be too many showers or thunderstorms northwest of Houston, but as the front nears the coast it will find more moisture to work with, and this should result in a more robust line of storms in central Houston and for coastal areas.

The front will be moving quickly so flooding is not a concern, but there will be a brief period when damaging winds and potentially hail are a threat as the front pushes through. In terms of timing, I’m thinking 3 to 5 pm for a line from Katy to the Woodlands, an hour later for central Houston, with the front likely off the coast between 6 and 8 pm.

After this point we’ll see winds turn sharply from the northwest, with strong gusts tonight up to 35 mph. Lows will drop into the mid-50s by early Wednesday.

Wednesday

This will be a sunny and windy day. I expect winds to peak during the afternoon, when gusts could briefly reach about 40 mph, especially closer to the coast. Highs, otherwise, are likely to top out in the upper 60s. Lows on Wednesday night will drop to around 50 degrees in Houston, with cooler conditions for outlying areas. This will be our region’s coldest night in more than 200 days.

Thursday and Friday

These will be a pair of fine, fall days with lots of sunshine and high temperatures in the vicinity of 70 degrees. Friday morning should be the coldest of the week, with much of the area potentially dropping into the upper 40s. As for Halloween trick-or-treating we have precisely zero concerns, with clear skies expected along with moderate temperatures in the upper 60s, and light winds.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend should see continued pleasant weather, with daily highs in the upper 70s, a touch more humidity, and nights in the 50s. There’s the potential for some rain on Saturday evening or Saturday night due to a passing disturbance, but I want to see more data before having confidence in such a forecast.

Next week

Most of next week will probably see something along the lines of high temperatures in the upper 70s to 80 degrees, with lows around 60, but I don’t have super high confidence in such a forecast yet.

Tropics

We haven’t said much here about the Atlantic tropics in the last month, when I wrote that the Texas hurricane season was probably over. (And indeed it was). However Hurricane Melissa bears a mention this morning, as this extremely powerful storm is poised to become the strongest tropical cyclone to ever hit Jamaica. We have ongoing, full coverage of Melissa at The Eyewall.

This storm is just about the worst imaginable hurricane: extremely strong and very slow moving. The only slightly positive note is that its core of strongest winds is relatively small. Nevertheless, Melissa is now bringing catastrophic damage to the Caribbean island of 3 million people, and compassion and help will be the order of the day in its wake.

In brief: In today’s update we discuss the season’s first real fall-like front, arriving Tuesday evening with the potential for some brief showers and thunderstorms. The city will then see its coldest weather in 200 days, along with ideal weather for Halloween. We’ve waited a long time for this, so enjoy!

Fall Day recap

Thank you to everyone who came out to see Matt, Lee, and myself on Fall Day Saturday at Midtown Park. I’ll be honest, it took a little faith to schedule an outdoor event on a day with a 100 percent chance of rain, but in the end the weather was exceptional. And we had a lot to celebrate. Not only did the region get the drenching rains it needed early on Saturday, we have the region’s first real fall front to look forward to this week (more below). Anyway, it was so nice to meet you all, and say hello. Thanks to Reliant for setting up, and Michael Chu for the great photos.

Monday

Temperatures this morning have a bit of a chill, having dropped to around 60 degrees for most of the area away from the coast. Temperatures will recover quickly into the mid-80s today, with mostly sunny skies, and a light south-southwest wind. Lows tonight will only drop into the upper 60s.

Tuesday

This will be a warm and humid day, with high temperatures reaching the mid- to upper-80s for most. However by late afternoon or early evening we should see a (broken, maybe?) line of showers and thunderstorms advance through the area ahead of a cold front. Some of our latest high resolution modeling is showing this line to be a little more robust than expected, but I want to see a little more atmospheric data before making this conclusion. Anyway, drier air will rapidly filter in on Tuesday night after the front, with lows dropping into the 50s.

Wednesday

What a change this day will bring. It will be windy, with gusts from the northwest up to 30 or even 35 mph. Highs are likely to only reach the upper 60s despite sunny skies. Lows on Wednesday night will drop to around 50 degrees in Houston, with cooler conditions for areas outside the urban core. The city will likely record its first sub-50 degree day since April 9 (which is 200 days ago, as of my writing this) at Bush Intercontinental Airport. So it has been a long time since the region has felt this chilly.

Thursday

Expect a sunny, pleasant day with light winds and highs around 70 degrees. I expect temperatures on Thursday night to even be a touch cooler than Wednesday night.

Halloween

This will be a sunny day, with highs in the low 70s and low humidity. Winds will be light, with trick-or-treating temperatures during the evening hours in the 60s. Overnight lows drop into the 50s.

Saturday and Sunday

It will be a partly to mostly sunny weekend with highs in the upper 70s to 80 degrees, and nights generally in the upper 50s. Humidity will be on the rise, but it still won’t feel particularly humid outside. In short, it should be fantastic weekend.

Next week

It’s possible that we could see another (weaker) front early next week to keep temperatures on the cooler side, but there is no definitive clear pattern yet.