Eric Berger

In brief: A line of storms passing into Houston will clear the area later this morning, and the region should see clearing skies for the second half of the day. Then we’ll have a brief period, about 24 hours, of somewhat drier and cooler air. A second front (no strong storms this time, probably) may bring some similarly cool weather for the weekend, but no promises.

Election Day weather

You don’t need me to tell you that today is Election Day in the United States. We are seeing storms pushing through the metro area this morning, but they will be east of the area by or before noon. After this there will be mostly fine conditions this afternoon, with clearing skies and light winds as a weak front settles in. Space City Weather is apolitical, but that does not mean we don’t encourage everyone to vote. Please find the time to do so today. The weather will be fine.

And then, after the election is over, I would hope that we remember that we are all Americans, stronger when united than divided. Just because your neighbor put out a Trump-Vance sign, or someone down the street has a Harris-Walz bumper sticker, does not mean they’re a bad person. We’ve been too conditioned by heated rhetoric and social media to ‘hate’ those who have different political opinions. If you actually get out and talk to your neighbors, no matter their political views, you’ll find that in Houston we’re all united behind common values, such as: summertime humidity here is the worst.

Tuesday

I expect the line of storms rumbling into Houston this morning to reach the coast by late this morning, and move offshore. Modestly drier air will move in behind the front today with northerly winds at about 10 mph. We should see clearing skies this afternoon with temperatures in the lower 70s for the most part. I expect it to be quite lovely this evening. Overnight lows in Houston will drop into the upper 50s for most locations, with coastal areas remaining in the 60s. For a day or so, it’s going to feel like fall.

Wednesday

By tomorrow we’ll start to see the beginnings of an onshore flow, and dewpoints will recover pretty quickly. So don’t blink or you’ll miss the drier air. Skies will be partly cloudy, with highs of around 80 degrees. Lows on Wednesday night will not drop below 70 degrees for most of Houston with muggier air.

Thursday and Friday

These will be a pair of partly sunny days with high temperatures in the low 80s, and warmish nights with lows around 70 degrees. There will be some low-end rain chances each day, but any accumulations will be slight.

Saturday and Sunday

Another front will approach the region ahead of the weekend, but the forecast models are still pretty divided on how much cooler or drier air it brings. In other words, I’m afraid our forecast for the weekend remains pretty low confidence. If pressed, I’ll say daily highs will be in the upper 70s, with nights in the 60s, but I’m prepared to be wrong. Rain chances aren’t zero, but they’re also not very high, maybe 20 percent daily. We had a question from the Houston Marathon about long training runs for this weekend, and at this point I wouldn’t be overly concerned about rain chances on Saturday morning. Whether we get some drier air in time for a long run remains possible, but not a certainty.

Next week

Even if we do get some decent cooling with this weekend’s front, we should be back into a warmer and more humid pattern early next week. Most of our guidance still indicates the arrival of a nice cold front during the middle of next week, but I’m still not confident enough to make any promises. However, it does seem fairly likely.

Tropics

Tropical Storm Rafael is strengthening this morning, and should cross Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico by later on Wednesday, likely as a hurricane. The storm’s current forecast track may look concerning, but the reality is that there are two scenarios which are most likely—and neither is particularly threatening to Texas.

The first scenario is that Rafael remains a hurricane as it reaches the central Gulf of Mexico, in which case it is likely to be steered toward southeastern Louisiana or thereabouts. If Rafael becomes weaker it is more likely to drift due westward toward Texas. However, in this scenario the storm would be considerably weaker, and probably not pose much of a threat beyond some easterly winds and higher seas. We’ll continue to watch things closely, of course. Look for a full report on The Eyewall later today.

In brief: Tropical Storm Rafael formed in the Caribbean Sea on Monday, and it could well become a hurricane before moving into the Gulf of Mexico later this weekend. Although we don’t have any major concerns here in Texas, we are sharing this post from our sister site, The Eyewall, so readers can be informed about the situation. We’ll continue to monitor things, of course.

Hello, Rafael

As of Monday afternoon Tropical Storm Rafael has winds of 45 mph, and it appears to be in an environment that will promote steady, if not rapid intensification over the next 24 to 36 hours.

Model guidance is in good agreement through tomorrow and Wednesday on a track taking Rafael due northwest just west of Jamaica, across the Cayman Islands, and right into western Cuba as healthy hurricane. Tropical storm force winds extend out about 105 miles from the center, so a tropical storm watch has been issued for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys. Hurricane Watches are posted for Cuba, and warnings are posted for the Cayman Islands.

In addition to the tropical storm and hurricane conditions, heavy rain and flooding are a possibility for Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and Cuba as well. Heavy rain will eventually work into portions of Florida and the Southeast as well as Rafael comes north. More on that in a second.

Once it reaches the Gulf of Mexico

So where will Rafael go on the other side of Cuba? That’s a tough question right now, as there are several factors in play once the storm gets into the open Gulf of Mexico. Moisture surging out ahead of Rafael will “pre-saturate” the Gulf to make it somewhat more hospitable for the storm to maintain intensity as it comes halfway across the Gulf of Mexico. But once it gets into the northern Gulf, the combination of significant dry air and wind shear may be Rafael’s undoing.

The wind shear is always a bit of a question mark; sometimes as storms come north, the shear can help to actually vent the storm a bit, which can unintentionally cause further strengthening. In this case, I think the shear is too strong, and this ample dry air (and there’s a lot of it) will likely take its toll on Rafael.

Because the storm will likely be weakening, I would reason that it should keep going northwest or even west northwest across the Gulf, almost like an aimless wanderer. If Rafael maintains its intensity longer than we anticipate, it could turn more north-northwest toward the Florida Panhandle or the central Gulf Coast. For now, impacts on the Gulf Coast are probably limited to pockets of heavy rain, rough seas, and minor tidal flooding issues. But as with any storm during hurricane season, it makes sense to monitor it closely in the coming days.

In terms of rain, it will be interesting to see how that initial surge of moisture interacts with a cold front approaching the Southeast on Wednesday and Thursday. There are model uncertainties on exactly how this will play out, but it appears that a significant rainfall event may unfold over central Georgia or southern South Carolina. This will be south of the hardest hit areas from Hurricane Helene. But it still means heavy rain and flooding are possible. Right now, the forecast calls for about 3 to 6 inches of rainfall, but some models do drop bullseyes closer to 10 inches in some areas southeast of Atlanta or west of Charleston.

The important takeaway here is that with Rafael expected to weaken due to dry air, there should not be a second surge of rain that follows this like we saw with Helene. So, it’s something to monitor closely in central Georgia and South Carolina, but the hope is that it will be manageable beyond localized issues. We’ll keep an eye on this.

Once Rafael dissipates, that’ll do it. Another area just north of the Caribbean may try to develop in several days, but it’s not a concern right now.

In brief: There’s a lot going on in today’s forecast, with the possibility of some storms tonight and Tuesday morning ahead of our region’s next front. Then we’ve got an uncertain weekend forecast and the likelihood of a tropical storm moving into the Gulf of Mexico several days from now. We tackle it all!

Stormy setup

Unlike the previous fronts we’ve experienced this fall, a weak front that remains on track for late tonight should bring a line of showers and storms with it as it passes through Houston. The setup is not perfect, so at this time I would only rate it as a 5 out of 10 on the “excitable dogs scale,” but we could definitely see some thunderstorms and strong winds, along with the slight potential for some hail and possibly a tornado. Conditions for storm formation will be more favorable north of Houston.

In terms of timing, I’d anticipate the storms will reach College Station roughly around midnight, push into the Katy area and Montgomery County around 2 to 4 am, reach central Houston around 3 to 6 am, and push down to the coast by around 6 to 8 am. Note these times are approximate. While the storms should be ebbing by rush hour on Tuesday, I cannot rule out impacts. Some areas may pick up as much as 2 or 3 inches of rainfall as the storms pass from northwest to southeast.

Monday

Today, before the front tonight, we’ll see very warm and windy conditions. We’re talking highs in the mid- to upper-80s for most locations, with very high humidity. Winds will be even gustier than we experienced on Sunday, blowing generally from the south at 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph or perhaps even a bit higher near the coast. There will be the possibility of scattered showers today, much like the region experienced on Sunday. Tonight will be very muggy ahead of the arrival of the front.

Tuesday

After the front passes we may see some lingering showers on Tuesday, with partly to mostly cloudy skies. Expect daytime temperatures generally in the low- to mid-70s. This is not a particularly strong front, and it will only briefly move offshore, so the period of dry air will probably last from around Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning. Low temperatures on Tuesday night will vary depending on how far you live from the coast, but most of the area should see the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Wednesday

As the front moves back onshore Wednesday, humidity levels will quickly recover during the daytime. Skies will be partly cloudy, with highs in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees. Winds will be light. Rain chances are low, but not non-existent. Low temperatures on Wednesday night will only drop into the lower 70s.

Thursday and Friday

These will be a pair of partly sunny days with highs around 80 degrees, and mild and muggy nights. Rain chances each day will be on the order of 20 percent.

Saturday, Sunday, and beyond

It’s possible that another fairly weak front arrives for this weekend, but I don’t have great confidence in that part of the forecast. In any case, it might be a situation where inland areas see some cooler nights and the coast remains warm and muggy. As a best guess, I’ll predict highs of around 80 degrees with low-ish rain chances for this weekend.

Most of our guidance predicts a stronger, truly fall-like front to arrive sometime during the middle of next week, but that’s far enough into the future that I’m not fully confident in predicting it will happen. But there does appear to be a fairly strong signal for colder weather toward the end of next week. It is November, after all.

Tropics

I cannot believe we’re talking about the tropics in early November, but here we are. The National Hurricane Center has highlighted an area in the Caribbean Sea as a potential tropical cyclone, and if this system develops (which is likely) it will become named Rafael. At first glance, the forecast track might appear to be fairly concerning for Texas, with a tropical storm in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico by this weekend.

There is a lot of uncertainty over this system’s track over the next week. However, if the storm does make it to the central Gulf, it will find fairly robust wind shear and dry air, which should inhibit strengthening. It would be historically unprecedented to have a tropical storm make it to Texas at this time of year, and much of the modeling guidance keeps the storm away, so it’s doubtful we have much to worry about. My sense is that we may see some higher seas by this weekend offshore, but probably not too many other impacts. Regardless, we’ll be watching closely and keeping you updated.

In brief: After a long dry spell Houston has finally undergone a pattern change, and we’re now in a period in which there will be a healthy chance of rain for at least the next five or six days. For today, our latest modeling suggests that rainfall will wind down late this afternoon, but there’s a risk of scattered showers at sunset for some locations north of Interstate 10. A weak front next week should bring drier air to the region.

A few housekeeping notes

First of all, if you missed our monthly Q&A we published on Wednesday, be sure and check it out. Dwight Silverman collects questions and every month Matt and I dig into the mailbag and respond to your weather-related queries. Heck, I’d even take space questions if you’ve got them, and I’m sure Matt would love nothing more than to write long encomiums about Rutgers basketball if readers so desire. Which I’m sure you don’t. Because how could you?

I also want to thank everyone who came to the first-ever Space Happy Hour last night at Space Center Houston. It was great to meet so many fans of the site. As a quick reminder, we did not hold a “Fall Day” celebration this year because we’re going to hold a bigger event next year to mark the onset of fall and also the 10th anniversary (!) of the founding of Space City Weather.

If you’re wondering why this post is late this morning, it’s because I’m torturing—I mean training—for the Houston marathon again this year and I had to knock out 12 miles. Let me tell you, running that in 100 percent humidity really, really sucks. Why didn’t I wait for cooler weather this weekend? Because there is no cooler or drier weather coming this weekend. Finally, we’re going to post our winter outlook next Monday, so be on the lookout. We are going to have a winter in Houston this year, right? RIGHT?!?

Thursday

Happy Halloween! I hope your kids aren’t wearing tight-fitting plastic costumes this evening, because those little guys and gals are going to be heading out into some pretty thick humidity. The question is, will it be raining at around sunset?

As of about 7:30 am there’s a fairly robust line of showers to the west and southwest of Houston, and I expect those to move generally eastward today. Throughout the day most of the region should at least see some intermittent showers, with parts of the area likely seeing brief downpours. When it’s not raining we’ll see a mix of clouds and sunshine, with high temperatures likely in the low- to mid-80s.

By late this afternoon and early evening, shower activity should be winding down. However there could be some remnant boundaries, along which there will be the potential for some additional showers and thunderstorms between 6 pm and 10 pm. I expect this activity to be fairly scattered, and located north of Interstate 10. So it’s something to be aware of this evening before heading too far from home. No candy is worth tempting fate with lightning.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

We’ll see partly sunny skies and highs in the low- to mid-80s through the weekend. Each day will likely bring intermittent light to moderate showers, possibly with a few thunderstorms. We don’t expect any washouts, but our overall wetter pattern should persist. So have an umbrella handy and a contingency for any outdoor plans if a shower pops up overhead. For the most part, I expect these showers to pass fairly quickly. Nights remain warm and humid, generally in the mid-70s.

Next week

Oh my friends, I wish I could offer you a clear-cut forecast for next week. But as of yet, such a thing does not exist. Generally speaking, I expect a fair bit of rain on Monday evening and Tuesday of next week, ahead of a front. There’s the potential for areas to pick up 1 to 2 inches with this system, which will do some nice work on the drought if it develops. Then a weak front probably moves through on Tuesday night or Wednesday, bringing some drier air and cooler temperatures. For now my expectations are that we might see some lows down around 60 degrees, but that could go higher or possibly lower. There’s a decent chance we get a reinforcing shot of cooler and drier air by next weekend, but I certainly would not count on that. Not at all.