Eric Berger

In brief: If you’re celebrating New Year’s Eve tonight, you’ll want a sweater or at least a light jacket as conditions will turn chillier after sunset. With a couple of exceptions, the first few days of the new year will be mild in Houston. But we’re still watching for an incursion of Arctic air about a week from now.

New Year’s Eve hope

It’s been a year, Houston! As I write this on Tuesday morning, the horizon is in that liminal state between twilight and morning, with an orange-ish hue in the southeastern sky, and a fading gray to the northwest. This is my favorite part of the day, so full of potential and promise. Who knows what it will bring?

And so it goes with the new year. In reality, New Year’s Day is just part of an arbitrary calendar imposed on nature. Nevertheless, the end of the year offers us time to reflect on what has gone past, and what is yet to come with the turning of the page. In some ways, this past year was a great year. In other ways, with Hurricane Beryl, the derecho in May, and the torrid summer, it was not a great year. I do not know what this coming year will bring weather-wise (ok, I’m pretty sure there will be plenty of humidity), but I do know that there are some things in life I can control. And that starts with being the best father, husband, and forecaster I can be. And so on this gorgeous morning, the final one of the year 2024, I am hopeful.

New Year’s Eve weather

The final day of this year will be unlike much of what has come before it: chilly and dry. High temperatures today will reach the mid- to upper-60s for many locations, it is true, with sunny skies. But there will be a decent northerly breeze all day, gusting up to 20 mph. And as the Sun sinks toward the horizon this afternoon and evening, the temperatures will drop. It will be about 50 degrees at midnight tonight in Houston, but with the breeze it will feel cooler. Skies will be clear to ring in the new year. Lows by Wednesday morning will reach the mid-40s in Houston, with cooler conditions for outlying areas, and somewhat warmer conditions right along the coast.

New Year’s Day

Expect a fine, sunny day with highs in the low-60s. Some clouds will start to build on Wednesday night as winds turn more easterly. Lows will reach about 50 degrees.

Thursday

Skies will turn mostly cloudy, with highs in the mid-60s. Some light rain, perhaps in the form of mist or light showers, will be possible on Thursday or Thursday night. But I don’t expect this to be impactful at all. Lows will again drop to around 50 degrees as a weak front moves in.

Friday and Saturday

This part of the weekend looks to be mostly sunny, with highs in the low- to mid-60s and lows in the 40s on Friday night, and a bit warmer on Saturday night. We have no weather concerns these days.

Sunday and Monday

Sunday will be warmer, and partly sunny with highs likely in the low- to mid-70s. At some point, perhaps on Sunday evening, Sunday night, or early Monday, a stronger cold front is likely to push into the area. This could also bring a decent chance of rain, although accumulations look fairly slight.

How cold will things get?

Next week still looks quite a bit colder in Houston, with low temperatures in the 30s beginning on Tuesday or Wednesday morning. Whether we see a freeze during the first half of next week in Houston, I’m not sure. It still looks like a secondary push of Arctic air will bring some colder nights by Friday or Saturday of next week. Much of the area probably will freeze at that point. But will it be a light freeze, or will temperatures drop into the 20s? We just cannot say. Also there continues to be a low-end chance for some wintry precipitation, including the possibility of some snow, next Thursday or Friday. But at this distance our confidence in a specific forecast is very, very low.

No post tomorrow

In celebration of New Year’s Day there will be no post on New Year’s Day. Fortunately, the weather for the rest of this week looks pretty calm.

In brief: This morning’s update discusses the tornado outbreak on Saturday, and looks ahead to milder weather this week. We also discuss the increasing potential for much colder weather beginning next Monday in the Houston region. But just how cold will it get?

Tornado recap

The National Weather Service has completed its preliminary analysis of six tornadoes in the greater Houston metro area on Saturday, December 28. These included an EF-3 tornado near Porter Heights and Splendora, which had a ground track about 10 miles long, and an EF-2 tornado in Brazoria County with a ground track of nearly 9 miles. This latter tornado killed one person and injured five people, and also did major damage to Walt Disney Elementary School in Alvin. Many teachers lost educational materials due to the tornado, and you can donate to support their efforts to recover here.

Houston experienced three days of violent weather in the last week, which is a rarity for this time of year. Fortunately conditions should settle down now. Our next big concern is the potential for a hard freeze about a week or 10 days from now, which I’ll discuss further below.

Monday

With air temperatures and dewpoints both in the upper 50s this morning, we are dealing with marine fog across parts of the metro area. This should dissipate later this morning as temperatures rise. It will be a warm day, with sunny skies and highs of around 80 degrees. Southwesterly winds will aid in the flow of warmer air into the area. Lows tonight will generally be in the 60s through the evening hours before a cold front (likely without precipitation) pushes down into the area after midnight.

Tuesday

We should awake to cooler conditions, in the 50s, on Tuesday morning. Highs will likely peak in the mid- to upper-60s for most areas with sunny skies and drier air. If you’re going to be out and about on New Year’s Eve, expect cool temperatures in the lower 50s, with a northwest breeze. Besides the cooler conditions, there should be no other concerns for New Year’s Eve. Lows on Tuesday night will drop into the mid-40s.

New Year’s Day

We will start the new year cold and clear, with highs likely only reaching the lower 60s. Expect to see sunny skies.

Thursday, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

The second half of the weekend will bring a gradual warmup into the area, with partly sunny skies and highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. As atmospheric moisture levels rise we’ll see some low-end rain chances each day, but accumulations at this point do not look overly impressive. By Sunday or Sunday night the next cold front should push into the area, potentially setting the stage for a significantly colder period.

Potential for a hard freeze

Since Matt addressed the possibility of a hard freeze on Friday, we have continued to gather more data, and the story has changed somewhat. The bottom line is that we could see our first Arctic air of the season next week, although the details of just how cold things get are still fuzzy.

For Texas, it’s the usual story in winter. A significant slug of colder air is going to drop down into the eastern United States from Canada. This differs from the more zonal flow we have seen this winter to date, in which modified colder air comes down from the Pacific Northwest, rather than the really cold stuff directly down from northern Canada. The question for Texas is whether this Arctic air dives down into the state, or gets shunted off to the southeast. This time I think we’re going to get plenty of colder air next week, but we are unlikely to see the worst of it.

With all of that said, my sense is that an initial surge of colder air next Monday will drop area-wide lows into the 30s for much of the Houston region (the coast may be warmer, and the usual suspects for inland areas may see a light freeze). Then, with one or two additional pushes of colder air, temperatures are just going to get colder through the week. Since we’re talking about a period 10 days from now it’s impossible to say how cold, but at this point I don’t think we can rule out lows in the 20s by Friday or Saturday of next week. Whether that’s lower 20s or upper 20s, we just cannot say. If we get some precipitation there is a low-end chance of some snow or a wintry mix toward the end of next week, but the odds of this happening are probably on the order of 10 percent at this point.

Anyway, this is something we’ll be watching all week, and we’ll keep you informed as we go along.

In brief: This short update is to inform you that potentially severe thunderstorms are on Houston’s doorstep, and will be impacting the region this afternoon. Please be weather aware for the next several hours.

Good afternoon. This is just a short post to note that, as expected, a line of strong thunderstorms is advancing into the Houston metro area as of 1:15 pm CT. We anticipate the period of most threatening and severe weather will occur from now through about 7 pm CT. Here’s what to expect during that time:

• A line of storms presently from El Campo to Sealy to Navasota will steadily progress eastward, likely reaching central portions of the Houston metro area between 2 and 4 pm CT
• These storms will then push steadily eastward, pushing offshore and to the east of Houston by 6 to 8 pm CT
• The primary threats from these storms include heavy rainfall that may briefly flood streets, damaging winds, hail, and possibly tornadoes
• To account for the threat of tornadoes, the National Weather Service has issued a Tornado Watch for the entire Houston metro area through 7 pm CT this evening.

Drier air will be moving in behind the storms as a weak front pushes into Houston overnight. Friday morning will (briefly) feel cooler and drier with temperatures in the lower 50s. Don’t get used to the cooler weather, as the onshore flow returns pretty quickly, with Saturday climbing back into the upper 70s. We’ll have full details in our forecast tomorrow morning, but until then, please be weather aware this afternoon and early evening!

In brief: The atmospheric setup today is favorable for severe weather, including hail, damaging winds, and possibly tornadoes. The main threat will come from late this morning until early this evening. After the storms, Houston’s weather turns much calmer for the weekend.

Thursday

After a relatively mild Christmas Day, the atmosphere above Houston is recharged for another round of storms today. Rising moisture levels will spark some scattered showers this morning before an atmospheric disturbance advances into the area. Accordingly, we should start to see some thunderstorms later this morning, and likely becoming more widespread by around noon or so. We will then see the threat of severe weather until about sunset this evening, or shortly thereafter.

What does that mean? Well in addition to heavy rainfall, there may be enough rotation in the atmosphere to support a few tornadoes, enough updraft to support hail, and downdrafts to promote high surface winds. On top of this, although much of the area probably will see about 1 inch of rain, higher accumulations are definitely possible and this may lead to some localized street flooding. The bottom line is that, from late this morning through the early evening hours, you should be prepared for the possibility of disruptive weather.

Skies, otherwise, will be mostly cloudy. Expect highs in the mid-70s. Some moderately drier air will move in with a weak front tonight, allowing for lows to drop into the upper 50s in Houston.

Friday

Friday should be mostly sunny and pleasant, with high temperatures in the low- to mid-70s. Winds will generally be light. As the short-lived front washes out, lows on Friday night will be a bit warmer, in the lower 60s.

Saturday

This will be a warmer, slightly more humid day, with high temperatures in the upper 70s. A front will move through Houston on Saturday evening (exact timing to be determined) and this may bring with it a broken line of showers sometime during the day. I’m not particularly bullish on the potential for showers, but we’ll see. Anyway, Saturday night should be cooler, in the 50s.

Sunday

This should be a lovely day, with highs in the lower 70s, sunshine, and drier air. Lows on Sunday night will drop into the 50s.

Next week

We should see lots of sunshine next week. We’ll be a bit warmer on Monday, but a front looks set to arrive late on Monday night, or New Year’s Eve, to begin the process of bringing temperatures down to more typical levels for this time of year. My early guess at temperatures for the night of New Year’s Eve calls for temperatures in the 50s, with probably mostly clear skies, and breezy conditions. So while it very likely won’t rain during New Year’s celebrations, it could be chilly. Lows should fall into the 40s for most of next week, in the new year.