Eric Berger

In brief: Good morning. This is an update for winter-enjoyers. Although temperatures will moderate some this week, we are looking at a sharp incursion of colder air by Saturday, likely the coldest of the season. We also cannot rule out some freezing rain or sleet, although it’s too early to have confidence in such a forecast.

A mild winter … so far

Houston has recorded a handful of freezing temperatures this winter, including a mark of 32 degrees on Sunday morning. But the coldest our air has gotten just been barely below freezing, back on December 15 when the mercury reached 31 degrees at Bush Intercontinental Airport. I say all of that to note that we expect our coldest airmass of the season to push into the region next weekend, and it is possible that widespread parts of Houston will dip into the 20s. We also cannot rule out freezing rain or a wintry mix. All of that to say, after a mild winter to date, things could turn a bit gnarly next weekend. More on what we know, and don’t, below.

Monday

Temperatures are generally in the mid-30s this morning, so it’s chilly once again. However unlike Sunday most of our region is above freezing. We are going to warm up nicely today with mostly sunny skies, allowing highs to reach the mid-60s. Winds will be light, from the southeast this afternoon. Temperatures will only fall into the mid-40s overnight, with increasing cloud cover.

Tuesday

This will be a mild, partly sunny day with highs in the low- to mid-60s. Winds may be a bit gusty, from the east. A weak front will pass into the area, and stall out near the coast. This will set the stage for scattered showers from Tuesday night into Wednesday night. Lows on Tuesday night will drop into the mid-50s.

Wednesday

This will be a gray day, with high temperatures likely peaking in the mid-60s. It will bring our region’s best chance of rain in awhile, with the overall likelihood of precipitation a little higher near the coast where there will be more moisture available. I expect most of the region will probably pick up on the order of 0.25 to 0.75 inch of rain, with some higher isolated totals. All in all this won’t be too impactful, and let’s face it, our coastal areas (raises hand) are pretty desperate for some precipitation. Lows on Wednesday night will drop into the upper 50s.

Thursday and Friday

These look to be warmer and mostly cloudy days, with highs in the vicinity of 70 degrees and lows in the 50s. It won’t feel particularly humid, with dewpoints in the 50s, but the air won’t exactly be dry either. Depending on the timing of the Arctic front mentioned above, temperatures could drop Friday night, or it could be another mild night. Some light showers will be possible ahead of the front on Friday afternoon and evening.

Saturday and Sunday

If the front does not arrive on Friday night, it should do so by Saturday morning. Here’s what we know right now:

A massive amount of Arctic air is going to spill down into the Midwest and Central United States from Canada, bringing temperatures 30 degrees below normal. Some areas in Wisconsin and Illinois could see temperatures in the -10 degree range, or thereabouts. This air mass will modify as it moves south. and the real question for Texas is whether we see a direct shot of this Arctic air, or a less impactful ‘lobe’ that breaks off from the main body. For now I’m just not sure beyond saying it’s going to get quite cold.

How cold? I expect highs on Saturday in the 50s, dropping to the 40s by Sunday. In terms of lows, I expect a widespread freeze in much of Houston for Saturday and Sunday nights. But still to be determined is whether this a freeze of the variety we have seen to date (i.e. 30 to 32 degrees) or more impactful (mid-20s for much of the metro area). I’m just not sure at this point, but obviously we will be watching things closely all week.

Beyond this we cannot rule out the possible of freezing precipitation this weekend. A chance of showers will linger after the front (we expect mostly cloudy skies this weekend), and some of this precipitation could take the form of sleet of freezing rain depending on air temperatures. Snow seems unlikely, but we’re not ruling anything out at this point. Anyway, sleet, and especially freezing rain, would cause mobility impacts this weekend, and possibly into Monday morning. We don’t have any details yet, and we cannot predict with any confidence whether there will be a winter storm. But it’s not out of the question.

Next week

Temperatures will moderate some next week, but we are still probably looking at highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s or so. Hello winter!

In brief: In today’s post we review the region’s average temperature over the first two weeks of the month. We also take a look at a sharp front that may bring a light freeze into the area by Sunday morning, as well as rain chances for later next week.

January is nearly half over

Through the first two weeks of January the average temperature was 62.6 degrees in Houston, at Bush Intercontinental Airport. If you’re wondering, that’s 9.5 degrees above the normal level this time of year, and more typical of mid-November. It will be interesting to see where we end up given that we have a couple of days below normal this weekend before somewhat warmer conditions later next week. For what it’s worth, some parts of Texas has been even warmer than this, relative to typical January conditions. Some parts of north Texas have been 12 to 15 degrees above normal for the first two weeks of this month.

Thursday

It feels like a normal January outside this morning, with temperatures falling to about 40 degrees (the usual lower spots, such as Conroe, have fallen into the mid-30s). The good news is that the strong-ish winds from Wednesday afternoon have died down overnight, so there’s not too much of a wind chill about. We’ll see moderate northerly winds throughout the day. Sunny skies will help us warm to about 60 degrees, or just below, later this afternoon. We are going to have a clear and cool night, with lows in the mid-40s in Houston, with slightly cooler conditions for outlying areas.

Friday

With a returning southerly flow temperatures on Friday will push into the lower 70s for most of Houston, with mostly sunny skies. Southwesterly winds may turn a bit gusty, up to 20 mph maybe. A front will arrive to change that, but I think it is unlikely to do so until after sunset on Friday. This will largely be a dry frontal passage, but there may be enough moisture closer to the coast to squeeze out a few showers. I’d only put chances at 10 or 20 percent, and they will pass quickly as the front sweeps through. Lows on Friday night will drop into the mid-40s.

Saturday and Sunday

We are going to see plenty of sunshine and cooler air this weekend. Highs on Saturday will likely top out in the mid-50s for most areas, and we could see fairly blustery winds from the north (perhaps gusting to 20 mph or a bit higher). If you have outdoor activities planned keep this in mind, as the wind will definitely add some chill to the air. Lows on Saturday night will bottom out with clear skies and lighter winds. A light freeze is possible in the region, perhaps including urban Houston although I certainly wouldn’t bank on that. Matt will have a better estimate of the freeze line in tomorrow’s post. Highs on Sunday will again be in the upper 50s, although with less wind it should feel a bit warmer. Lows on Sunday night will reach about 40 degrees, with cooler conditions for outlying areas.

Next week

If you’re attending a parade on Monday for M.L.K. Day you can expect fine, mostly sunny weather with highs in the 60s. After this we should see more clouds next week. A weak front is likely to push in Monday night or Tuesday, possibly bringing some rain chances. But then we’re going to see warmer conditions, with highs in the 60s and 70s for the rest of the week. The presence of a coastal low pressure system is likely to bring increased rain chances on Wednesday and Thursday, although this will depend on how far the low progresses inland. But for coastal areas (i.e. south of Interstate 10) that have been really dry in December and January, for now this provides a hopeful signal for some rain. Some sort of front may arrive by next weekend, we’ll have to see.

In brief: Today’s forecast is a tale of three fronts, which will keep Houston mostly on the cooler side of things into the middle of next week. The first two will be dry ones, but there is a healthy chance of rain with the third one next week. We could use it, as the southern half of the region has fallen into a ‘severe’ drought.

Rain wanted

Some parts of the Houston area (i.e. Kingwood, Cypress, Spring, Oak Forest, and other nearby environs) picked up a decent amount of rain with last weekend’s cold front, but for the majority of the region totals were far less. For some areas on the south side of Houston, it has been more than six weeks since a solid rainfall. And according to the most recently issued US Drought Monitor, a large slug of the southern half of the metro area has now fallen into a ‘severe’ drought.

I don’t want to over-set expectations, and it’s always possible this could fizzle out. But it does seem likely that the Tuesday through Friday period of next week will bring a decent chance of rain into the region. We are not talking the potential for flooding, I think. And in a normal period this would not be particularly noteworthy. But after such a dry winter so far, the potential for 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rain next week is worth highlighting. Anyway, we’ll keep an eye on things for you.

Wednesday

We’re getting a cold front today, but it will be a dry one. Skies will be sunny, with high temperatures pushing into the upper 60s. Winds are light, from the west, this morning. However by or before noon we’ll see a wind shift to come from the northwest and then north, and this afternoon we should see gusts up to about 30 mph. This will bring in drier air, and push overnight temperatures down to about 40 degrees tonight in Houston, with cooler conditions for outlying areas. Winds will continue to be strong this evening before settling down a bit after midnight.

Thursday

This will be a chilly day, with sunny skies and highs generally in the upper 50s. Thursday night will be a couple of degrees warmer than Wednesday night, but still chilly.

Friday

This will be a warmer day as southerly winds return. Expect highs of around 70 degrees. Before this warming trend becomes too pronounced, however, another front will push through.

Saturday and Sunday

In the wake of Friday’s front we will see a cool and fine weekend, with sunny skies. Expect daily highs of around 60 degrees. Saturday night should be the chilliest of the period. Most of Houston will likely remain above freezing, but some of the usual spots further inland could see a light freeze.

Next week

Monday, when we celebrate M.L.K. Day, will be pleasant, with sunny conditions and highs in the 60s. After this yet another front will push into the region, and this is when I think we may start to see better rain conditions. However the details are still pretty fuzzy. We also should start to warm up into the 70s by the second half of next week before another front some time next weekend.

In brief: Houston will continue to see cool and dry weather through the weekend. There are some slight rain chances today, but most of what’s on radar appears to be virga. We also take a sneak peek at Texans playoff weather in Massachusetts this weekend.

Texans playoff weather

The Houston Texans football team advanced to the Divisional Playoff round after a thorough beating of the Pittsburgh Steelers on Monday night. The Texans, which have the best defense in the franchise’s history, will now play the New England Patriots at their home stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts next Sunday. This can be a forbidding place, weather-wise, in January. But an early look at the forecast is not too intimidating.

The game starts at 2 pm CT, and temperatures will likely be in the upper 30s, with partly sunny skies. Winds, at this time, look manageable at 10 to 15 mph. Snow is not out of the question, but for now most of the models keep a low pressure system just north of the area, ruling out any accumulations. The bottom line, for late January near Boston, the forecast is one in which the Texans can thrive.

Tuesday

Returning closer to home, temperatures this morning are generally in the upper 40s for much of the Houston metro area. In response to a weak upper-level low pressure system we are seeing some light showers on the radar this morning to the west and southwest of the Houston area. Much of this is likely virga, which is precipitation that falls from clouds but evaporates before hitting the ground. This is occurring because the rain is light, and the air near the surface is very dry. It’s possible that some of these showers will be come a little bit stronger later today, so there is about a 20 percent chance of light sprinkles or showers reaching the ground as this system moves into the Houston region. Skies, otherwise, will be partly to mostly cloudy today with highs of around 60 degrees. Lows tonight will again generally drop into the upper 40s.

Wednesday

The first of two reinforcing fronts this week will arrive on Wednesday. Ahead of the front skies will be clear, and highs could reach about 70 degrees. However at some point, probably around noon or shortly after, winds will pick up from the north, gusting up to 25 mph or higher. These winds will eventually slacken some by Wednesday night, with lows dropping into the lower 40s, with cooler conditions for outlying areas. The front will be a dry passage, with no precipitation expected.

Thursday

This will be a sunny, cool day with highs of around 60 degrees. Lows on Thursday night will fall into the low- to mid-40s.

Friday

Temperatures will rebound to around 70 degrees on Friday, with ample sunshine. Another front later on Friday will bring more colder air in, dropping temperatures into the low 40s Friday night.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend looks clear and cool, with highs generally in the 60s (probably mid-60s, but we’ll see) and sunny skies. Overnight lows will probably fall to around 40 degrees in Houston (although there is a chance for slightly colder nights). Overall rain chances are close to zero. Really we have zero weather concerns locally this weekend. Enjoy the winter-like weather!

Next week

The early part of next week looks to bring continued cold for a few more days. There is some “noise” out there about a hard freeze early next week, but at this point most of our modeling keeps things at, or above freezing. We’ll keep an eye on this. After about Tuesday we are likely to warm up for a few days, perhaps reaching the mid-70s toward the end of next week. This may change with another front by or before the weekend. Rain chances, alas, continue to look really low as we dry out. That is the only unfortunate element of this otherwise splendid winter weather forecast.