Eric Berger

Summary: Houston will see rather warm, spring-like weather for a couple of days before a front arrives on Wednesday to cool the region down. The weekend looks pleasant again, with highs in the upper 70s to 80 degrees. Some slight rain chances do return Friday, but overall accumulations look very light. Don’t expect much sunshine this week.

Texas heat

Good morning. Houston will see moderately warm weather this week, but if we pull back across Texas some northern parts of the state are going to see very warm temperatures in the low 90s. The high temperature today in Dallas, for example, is 93 degrees. This statewide heat is being driven by several factors, including drier air over the northern part of the state, a warm southwesterly flow, and a warm air mass (for February) over much of the continental United States. A front will arrive mid-week to cool the state off.

Before jumping into the forecast I want to share a couple of programming notes. Check back at 10 am this morning for a new feature, a monthly Q&A post in which Matt and I answer your questions. Also, you can see our final sponsorship video with Reliant here, in which talk with Elizabeth Killinger about what not having to worry about ‘clicks’ means for Space City Weather.

Monday

Houston experienced its first 80-degree weather of 2024 this past weekend, with highs of 80 and 82 degrees, respectively, on Saturday and Sunday. We’ll likely be there again today and Tuesday before a front arrives on Wednesday. Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy today, with highs in the low 80s. Winds will be from the southwest at 10 to 15 mph. Lows on Monday night will drop into the mid- to upper-60s with cloudy skies. Winds will pick up some from the south overnight.

Tuesday

This will be another warm day, with a decent amount of humidity as dewpoints push into the mid-60s. Highs will again be in the low 80s. Southerly winds become particularly notable midday, perhaps gusting up to about 30 mph. Expect mostly cloudy skies. Lows Tuesday night will likely only drop into the upper 60s.

Wednesday

Change arrives on Wednesday when a front blows into Houston, likely during the mid-morning hours. Highs will likely peak ahead of the front, in the 70s, before dropping during the afternoon hours. Winds on Wednesday afternoon and evening will be fairly strong, from the north, gusting to about 30 mph. At this point I think the front will bring little to no rain with it. Low temperatures on Wednesday night will drop to about 50 degrees, with cooler conditions inland.

Thursday

This day will be mostly cloudy and cooler, with highs of about 60 degrees. Winds will be much less than on Wednesday, with overnight lows about the same, dropping to around 50 degrees or a bit lower in Houston.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

We’ll see two trends this weekend. The first is gradually warming temperatures, from 70 degrees on Friday to the upper 70s to 80 degrees this weekend. We’ll also see the return of some slight rain chances beginning later on Thursday or Thursday night and lasting through Sunday. When I say light, I mean light. Although the weekend will see about a 20 percent chance of rain each day, overall accumulations are expected to be measured in hundredths of an inch. If you’re looking for some sunshine, Saturday afternoon probably has the best chance of it this weekend, but even then I’m not promising anything.

Next week

Monday should be warm again before some sort of front arrives on Tuesday. The details are still fuzzy, but it does appear as though this next front will bring with it a slightly better chance of rain. We shall see.

Summary: If you like the forecast to be steady eddy, and our weather mild, you’re in luck. The outlook for the next week or so, at least, looks pleasant with a series of weak fronts keeping temperatures from getting too warm or the air too humid. Rain chances are near zero at least until we get toward the end of next week.

I also want to give a huge shout-out to Houston-based Intuitive Machines. There are some great people there, and last night they successfully landed the first US-made spacecraft on the Moon in 52 years. This is also the first privately built vehicle to ever make a soft landing on the Moon. It’s a huge achievement that all of us in Space City can be proud of. As a space nerd I was so excited last night I could hardly fall asleep. If you’re interested, I wrote about the nail-biting landing, which faced last-minute challenges, here.

Friday

A modest front arrived on Thursday night to drag some cooler and drier weather in to the Houston region. As a result, we have some pleasant weather ahead this weekend. Skies will be sunny today, with high temperatures in the upper 70s. Winds will be noticeable, out of the north, gusting to perhaps 20 or 25 mph this afternoon. They should ease off this evening, and we’ll see lows drop down to around 50 degrees tonight.

Saturday

The first half of the weekend should be stunning. Highs will reach the upper 70s, with a few areas perhaps briefly touching 80 degrees. The air will be plenty dry, with light winds. Lows on Saturday night will again drop into the low 50s to 50 degrees in Houston, with cooler conditions for outlying areas.

Sunday

By Saturday night we’ll see the onshore flow starting to work its way into Houston, so on Sunday we’ll see slightly more humid air. More noticeable, perhaps, will be a fairly robust southerly breeze, at 15 mph with gusts to 20 mph or higher. Skies will still be sunny, with highs in the upper 70s. With the warmer overall flow, lows on Sunday night will only drop to around 60 degrees in Houston.

First half of next week

We’ll see warmer and breezier weather next week with highs generally around 80 degrees and somewhat humid air as dewpoints push into the low-60s. Skies will still be at least somewhat sunny on Monday, but they’ll turn cloudier on Tuesday and Wednesday. At some point, probably on Wednesday, another modestly strong front will arrive to bring us some cooler and drier air.

Second half of next week

Highs will likely drop into the low 70s, and lows into the 50s, after the front. This somewhat cooler weather could persist into the weekend, but at that point the forecast starts to turn a bit fuzzy. In terms of rainfall potential, the models are hinting that some showers may return into the forecast beginning next Thursday or Friday, but the signal is far from overwhelming. We should know more on Monday. Speaking of which, have a wonderful weekend, everyone. We don’t get all that many in Space City like this.

Summary: Houston will see mild, mostly rain-free conditions for the foreseeable future. We’ll warm up the next couple of days before a moderate front cools us down for the weekend. Speaking of which, outdoor activities look good to go on Saturday and Sunday, so make your plans with confidence.

Tuesday

If you found Monday’s sunny skies and cool air a bit too cool for your liking, you may appreciate today more. With a moderate southerly flow in place, temperatures today will rise into the mid-70s beneath mostly sunny skies. Winds will be light, from the south and southwest at 5 to 10 mph. With dew points generally in the 50s, the air will still feel somewhat dry. Lows tonight should only drop to around 60 degrees for much of the area, and this could aid in the development of some fog during the overnight hours.

Wednesday

This will be another day with mostly sunny skies and highs in the 70s. The most notable change from Tuesday will be an increase in southerly winds, with daytime gusts of 20 to 25 mph. We’ll see more clouds overnight, and lows will be warm-ish for this time of year, only dropping into the low 60s.

Thursday

This should be the warmest day of the week, with partly to mostly cloudy skies in the morning and some clearing in the afternoon. Expect highs of nearly 80 degrees with a southerly breeze. Change will come in the form of a front dropping out of the northwest. As of now it appears likely the front will reach areas such as Katy and The Woodlands by around sunset, push through most of Houston by around 8 to 10 pm, and move off the coast by around midnight. Some light rain is possible with the front, but at this point I believe it is unlikely. Lows drop into the 50s overnight, behind the front.

Friday

Friday morning looks a bit breezy, with northerly winds gusting up to 15 or 20 mph. But these winds should slacken during the afternoon hours as Houston enjoys sunny skies and highs in the mid-70s with drier air. Lows on Friday night will likely drop to around 50 degrees in Houston, with cooler conditions for outlying areas.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend continues to look splendid for outdoor activities—so if you picked this weekend for a wedding or family reunion give yourself a gold star. Saturday will be sunny, in the mid-70s, with light winds and low humidity. Overnight lows drop into the low-50s. Sunday will be a bit warmer, with a bit more humidity. It will also be somewhat breezy, as a southerly flow returns, with some gusts around 20 mph. Under this Southerly influence lows on Sunday night will be warmer, perhaps dropping only to about 60 degrees.

Next week

Spring continues. Houston should warm into the upper 70s to possibly 80 degrees through Tuesday or Wednesday of next week before some sort of front arrives. This may bring a few cooler days and some better rain chances, especially toward the end of the week. Do I have much confidence in the details? I do not.

Summary: It’s a chilly morning across Houston, with temperatures generally in the 30s, and you’ll want a jacket. But after this morning we start to warm up nicely. A weak front on Thursday should set the stage for some stellar weather this weekend. In this post I also discuss whether this past weekend marked the last outbreak of really cold weather this season.

End of winter?

For Houston, I would characterize a “really cold night” as a temperature below 40 degrees. Your view may well differ, but that is a nighttime temperature about 5 degrees colder than our normal lows during the middle of winter. In any case, it’s a night when most people want their heat running, and they step outside in the morning and things feel pretty cold. Or, as my wife says when she lets the dogs out, “It’s freezing!”

Most of the Houston region saw a pair of nights this weekend that dropped below 40 degrees, and it was a genuinely cold winter weekend. As we get near the end of February, such cold snaps become rarer. The question this morning is whether we will see sub-40 degree temperatures again this season. I would say the answer is not definitive, but I think there’s a solid chance we don’t. There is signal in the global models for some cooler air air around the beginning of March, but I’m not sure it will get below 40 degrees in Houston. The bottom line, I think, is that after this past weekend Spring has sprung.

Also, I wanted to mention that we’ve published a second sponsorship video with Reliant. Check it out to see some of the fun things we’ve done over the last seven years.

Monday

Today should be a very fine day, with sunny skies, dry air, and high temperatures in the mid-60s. Seriously, this will be one of those A+, Goldilocks days that Houston experiences between cold fronts and warmer and more humid weather. Winds will shift to come from the south at 5 to 10 mph later today. With this beginning of an onshore flow, conditions will be warmer tonight, with temperatures generally falling into the upper 40s for most of the metro area.

Tuesday and Wednesday

These will be a pair of mostly sunny days with high temperatures in the mid- to upper-70s. We’ll continue to see a nighttime warming trend, with lows in the upper 50s on Wednesday morning, and low 60s by Wednesday morning. Winds will continue to blow from the south, becoming more noticeable by Wednesday, with some gusts up to 20 or 25 mph.

Thursday

Expect a warmer day, with highs likely reaching 80 degrees or a bit higher. Skies are likely to be partly cloudy. A front will push through the area during the daytime, but as of now overall rain chances with its passage look quite low. I’d bet on a dry front. It will not going to be particularly potent, but the front will bring us some drier and cooler air for the weekend. Lows on Friday morning will likely drop into the upper 50s.

Friday

This looks like a fine, sunny day with highs in the mid-70s and drier air. Skies are likely to be mostly sunny. Lows on Friday night should drop to around 50 in Houston.

Saturday and Sunday

This is going to be a great weekend for any outdoor activities you may have. Look for sunny skies, and highs in the mid-70s on Saturday, and upper-70s on Sunday. Lows will be in the lower 50s on Saturday and Sunday mornings. By the second half of the weekend we’ll see the return of a moderate onshore flow, which will start to nudge up humidity levels.

Next week

Temperatures will bounce upward, into the low-80s for the first half of next week. It should be our warmest weather of 2024. However, it looks like we may see a decent front near the end of the month. There are also some hints that later next week could also bring our first real chances of rain back into the forecast, but the forecast starts to get pretty hazy at that point.