Eric Berger

In brief: We discuss heavy rainfall north of Houston, and lesser accumulations in Houston. After this morning we’ll see a reprieve from showers, but starting Tuesday or Wednesday we’ll see decent chances for the remainder of the week. The weekend should see clearing skies and warmer temperatures, so the early beach outlook is favorable.

The boundary that produced significant rainfall overnight is exiting the area, but it has done its damage in terms of heavy rainfall to the north of Houston. Two areas, one from College Station to Madisonville, and another northeast of Huntsville, recorded 10 inches of rainfall during the last 24 hours. Some rivers and bayous in this area are likely to reach a moderate flood stage over the next day or so.

Closer to Houston, the high-water mark came near Baytown and Mont Belvieu, with a few areas recording 5 to 7 inches. Rainfall amounts were widely variable, as some areas of just west of Houston picked up less than half an inch. But all in all it was a wet night. Too wet for some areas, with ongoing flooding occurring north of Houston, but still some much-needed rain for most locations. The remainder of spring should be nice and green in our region.

Monday

The line of storms has moved well to the east of Houston this morning, but we’re seeing some lingering showers, and these could continue for coastal areas through the morning hours. Later today we’ll see clearing skies, and this is likely to be our best chance for guaranteed sunshine this week, at least until the weekend. One welcome change this morning is much lighter winds, which will blow today from the east-southeast at 5 to 10 mph. Highs will reach into the mid-80s, with a few locations popping into the upper-80s depending on sunshine. Rain chances remain low this evening and overnight, with temperatures dropping to around 70 degrees in Houston.

Tuesday and Wednesday

The overall pattern remains unsettled this week, with the absence of a strong high pressure system. As a result we’ll see continued decent rain chances, on the order of 30 percent daily. I don’t expect anything too organized, and for the most part these should be scattered, garden-variety showers. Highs both days will be in the low- to mid-80s with mostly cloudy skies. Nights will be warm, in the low 70s.

Thursday and Friday

We’ll see a continued partly to mostly cloudy pattern to end the work week, but rain chances will inch up a bit. Again, I’m not expecting a deluge, but daily rain chances will likely be on the order of 40 to 50 percent. Accumulations should be greatest north of Houston. Look for highs in the mid-80s, depending on how much sunshine breaks through during the afternoon hours. Southerly winds will pick up a bit toward the end of the week, with some gusts of 20 or 25 mph possible.

Saturday and Sunday

Rain chances should diminish some this weekend, with a corresponding increase in sunshine. We’ll still see some clouds, but there probably will be more blue skies, and there appears to be only a slight chance of rain at this point. Look for highs in the 80s, perhaps upper 80s, with plenty of humidity to spare. All in all, a good pool or beach weekend for early May.

Next week

Could we see our first temperatures in the 90s next week? Quite possibly. The first full week of May looks fairly sunny, and fairly warm. We could see the onset of summer lite in Houston if current trends hold.

In brief: The good news is that the worst of the wind is over. We will still see strongish south-southeasterly winds today, but the gusts will be lower than on Saturday. And winds will certainly be much calmer on Monday. However, before that the region faces a decent chance of storms, including severe thunderstorms, particularly during the overnight hours.

At present there is a line of storms essentially along the Interstate 35 corridor. This system will move eastward today, but it will do so in fits and starts. And truth be told there is a lot of uncertainty about the impact of these storms due to a capping inversion, and how long it takes to break. (A capping inversion prevents warm air at the surface from rising, an essential element in the development of thunderstorms).

My best guess for what happens is that the greater Houston area sees scattered showers during the daytime today, with a few isolated thunderstorms. Nothing too impactful. Highs will reach the mid-80s with mostly cloudy skies. Beginning later this afternoon locations such as College Station and Conroe will see a better chance of thunderstorms. During the late evening hours, which is to say probably a couple of hours before midnight, a larger mass of showers will develop to the north of Houston and then sag southward toward the coast, and eastward toward Beaumont. They’re likely to exit the Houston area by sunrise on Monday.

We’ll see the usual threats with these storms: heavy rainfall, damaging winds, and the potential for a few tornadoes. The threat for severe weather is greater for inland areas, where the capping inversion looks weaker, than it is the coast. But all of the area will have the chance to see some thunderstorms later tonight. In terms of rainfall, I expect totals to vary widely. Some areas may pick up as much as 3 inches or more, but most of the area probably receives 0.5 to 1.5 inch. A few coastal locations may remain dry. There’s big boom-bust energy tonight.

Monday should be warm, but mostly rain-free.

In brief: Houston is beginning the first of four days of warm and windy weather, with Saturday looking especially gusty. Rain chances start to increase on Sunday afternoon, with much of the region in line for a decent soaking to start next week. This post also briefly touches on the looming onset of an active hurricane season, which begins in a little more than a month.

A few notes on the tropics

The National Hurricane Center issued its first “special tropical weather outlook” of the year on Wednesday, concerning a low pressure system far out in the Atlantic Ocean. This system has virtually no chance of becoming even a subtropical depression, but it is a sign of things to come. We are just a little more than five weeks away from the official beginning of the Atlantic hurricane season, but it would not surprise me to see a May storm this year given the warmth in the Atlantic tropics.

Another fairly influential group, at the University of Pennsylvania, issued its tropical forecast this week. The researchers predict a blockbuster season, with a best estimate of 33 named storms. This seems preposterously high, but typically the Pennsylvania forecast predictions are reasonably accurate, and typically conservative relative to overall activity. It’s another reason for concern. Speaking of the busy forthcoming season, Matt and I want to thank Houston City Councilwoman Abbie Kamin for the shoutout at City Council on Wednesday. Finally, this is a tax-free weekend for purchasing hurricane supplies in Texas. Details here.

Thursday

We’ll begin to see stronger southerly winds today as pressure gradients tighten in response to lower pressures over the central United States. This will help to create a persistent southerly flow over the region through the weekend, and peaking on Saturday. Today, winds will blow from the southeast at 10 to 20 mph, with gusts up to 30 mph. Skies should be mostly cloudy, with highs reaching the low 80s for most locations. Winds will continue overnight, with lows only dropping into the low 70s.

Friday

Another mostly cloudy and windy day. Highs might be a degree or two warmer than Thursday, with wind gusts possibly reaching 35 mph. Some showers and thunderstorms will be possible on Friday afternoon and early evening, but I think these will be fairly scattered due to a capping inversion. For now I’d peg rain chances at perhaps 10 to 30 percent. Friday night will be warm again.

Saturday

The first half of the weekend should see the strongest winds of the week, with south-southeasterly gusts up to 40 mph possible from the south. We should also see at least partly sunny skies, allowing highs to reach the mid-80s, and possibly the upper-80s for some locations. We covered the Texas Bike MS 150 in depth in yesterday’s post, and the forecast remains similar. If you’re participating in that, or the Ironman event in The Woodlands, be prepared for warm, humid weather and very strong winds from mid-morning through Saturday evening.

Sunday

Another warm and windy day, although gusts should be a bit lower, perhaps only reaching 30 mph from the south-southeast. Look for highs generally in the mid-80s with partly sunny skies giving way later to clouds. Beginning Sunday afternoon in the Houston area, in response to an upper-level system, expect to see rain chances increase across the area. Chances on Sunday will be greatest to the northwest of Houston, bust most of the region will probably see a smattering of rain on Sunday afternoon, evening, or overnight.

Next week

Monday and Tuesday will see a healthy chance of rain showers, although the details remain uncertain about amounts. I’m hopeful that much of Houston will pick up 0.5 to 1.5 inches, which would be welcome given our drying soils this week. For the most part we can expect highs in the mid-80s to upper-80s later next week, with lows around 70 degrees. Humidity looks high all week. There could be a fair amount of sunshine. We’ll see.

In brief: Houston will see continued warm weather, with windy conditions beginning Thursday and persisting through the weekend. Starting Sunday we’ll start to see some rain chances that will likely peak on Monday. In this post we also take a look at winds and a potentially rainy second half for the Texas Bike MS 150 ride.

Wednesday

Much of the area has only dropped to around 70 degrees this morning, with a warmer flow in place. Today will see temperatures warm into the low-80s for most locations, although clearing skies later this afternoon could allow some locations to pop up a few degrees higher. This will be the last day for awhile that we don’t experience a fairly pronounced southerly wind, so enjoy the calmer air. Lows tonight will, again, only drop to 70 degrees or a bit lower with a humid air mass in place.

Thursday

While Wednesday is likely to see some clearing skies during the afternoon, I think Thursday will remain mostly cloudy. In response to a front advancing across the central United States we’ll see an uptick in winds from the south on Thursday, with gusts up to 25 mph possible. (Said front, alas, isn’t going to make it into our area). This southerly flow will bring more warmer air into the region, but I think the aforementioned clouds will limit highs to the mid-80s. Expect another warm night.

Friday

Another warm, windy, and mostly cloudy day. We’ll see a slight chance of showers during the daytime, maybe 20 percent.

Saturday and Sunday

Saturday looks to be the warmest day of the week, and our high temperatures will depend on the extent of clearing skies. I do think there will be some breaks during the afternoon hours, so some locations will reach the upper-80s, probably. Winds will really be ripping on Saturday, as well, with southerly gusts perhaps up to 35 mph or even a tad higher in some locations.

Sunday should see a slight diminution in winds, but some gusts up to 30 mph will still be possible. Rain chances are also increasing for Sunday, especially for areas inland of Interstate 10. I’d put chances at about 40 percent in the Houston area. For the most part these should be light to moderate showers rather than thunderstorms, but it’s something to consider if you have outdoor plans on Sunday afternoon or evening. Highs should be solidly in the mid-80s.

Texas Bike MS 150 weather

Saturday looks fine for the ride from Houston, which generally follows a western route. The day will be rather warm, with partly sunny skies most likely. Winds will generally be from the south-southeast, with some fairly strong gusts. While these won’t be tailwinds, they should be cross-tailwinds, so they’ll help rather than hinder. (By contrast, if you’re planning to ride your bike from Houston to Galveston on Saturday, good luck). Rains will not be an issue.

On Sunday, the MS 150 bike ride generally turns more north-northeast. Winds on Sunday will not be as pronounced as on Saturday, but they’ll still be blowing at 10 to 15 mph with stronger gusts. These south-southeasterly winds won’t be perfectly be at your back, but they should be more of a tailwind than a crosswind. So that’s all good. My concern is precipitation, especially beginning in the late morning hours. Showers will definitely be possible near places such as Brenham and College Station. Right now these don’t look too much like thunderstorms, but it’s something to monitor.

Next week

The disturbance that will initiate some showers on Sunday will persist into Monday, and perhaps Tuesday morning. This will bring a decent chance of showers across the area, with accumulations of perhaps a few tenths of an inch of rain for most, with higher isolated totals. I’ll be happy for any rain I can get. Most of next week looks warm, with highs in the mid- to upper-80s and lows down around 70 degrees. It’s not summer, but we’re inching there.