Eric Berger

Summary: Houston’s temperatures are in the 40s this morning, but this will be the last time until Monday as a decidedly warmer pattern sets in. It will also eventually become wetter, with some decent rain chances on Saturday and Sunday ahead of the front. Our highs will be the in the 70s before conditions turn colder on Sunday night.

Also, as a programming note, we wanted to answer a question that a lot of people have been asking about the ‘polar vortex.’ There has been a lot of chatter online about whether we’re going to experience another outbreak of Arctic air in Texas at the end of this month. Look for a post later this morning by Matt to address these concerns. The short answer is that we don’t see a particularly hard freeze coming at this time.

Wednesday

Temperatures this morning are generally in the 40s, with the usual few outliers. Conroe is in the upper 30s, and it looks like Galveston will remain at about 50 degrees. However, with winds from the southeast we’re already seeing the beginnings of an onshore flow that will bring warmth and humidity into the region. Those winds will turn fairly gusty later today, blowing at times up to 25 or 30 mph.

Skies should be clear this morning, but with increasing atmospheric moisture I think we’ll see partly to mostly cloudy skies this afternoon. We’ll be saying goodbye to the sunshine for awhile. Expect highs in the low 70s, with temperatures on Wednesday night only dropping into the low 60s. Some very light showers may be possible after midnight.

Thursday

This will be a gray and warmish day, with highs in the low 70s. Winds will be from the south, perhaps gusting up to about 20 mph. Some light rain showers will be possible, but any accumulations are likely to be on the order of a few hundredths of an inch. I’d put chances at about 20 or 30 percent, so pretty scattered. Thursday night will be cloudy and mild, in the low- to mid-60s.

Friday

This will be another day a lot like Thursday—gray and warm with low chance of light rain.

Saturday

As the atmosphere turns more turbulent this weekend we’re likely to see an uptick in rain chances. You probably have a greater than 50 percent chance of showers, especially for areas north of Interstate 10, and to the northeast of Houston, including locations such as Kingwood. In terms of accumulations most areas will see a few tenths of an inch of rain, but a few areas may see higher totals. Temperatures, otherwise, will be in the low 70s.

Sunday

This day also looks fairly warm, in the low 70s. Our weather, ultimately, will depend on the rate at which the front slogs through the area. I don’t have great confidence in those details yet, but my sense is that we’ll once again see fairly widespread showers before some cooler air starts to arrive Sunday evening or overnight. Lows on Sunday night may drop to about 50 degrees. We’ll see.

Next week

We’ll see clear skies and colder weather to start next week, with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s through Wednesday. At this point Tuesday morning looks like the coldest day, with lows possibly dropping into the upper 30s. Some rain chances return later next week, and it’s not clear to me whether we’re going to warm above the 60s. So if 70s and humidity are your jam, enjoy the next few days before somewhat colder air returns.

Summary: Houston gets about 10 or 15 days of A+ weather a year when there is absolutely nothing to complain about. Today, in my opinion, is one of those days. We’ll still see some sunshine on Wednesday before we transition to cloudier and muggier weather. The weekend should see the return of rain showers, although not something we’re concerned about in the sense of flooding.

Tuesday

For me, at least, it doesn’t get any better than this. After a chilly start, today will bring sunny skies, a high temperature of around 70 degrees, dry air, and a very light northerly wind. It won’t last in Houston. It never does. In fact we’ll see the return of a southeasterly flow tonight, which will spell the beginning of the end of our dry air. Lows will still drop into the upper 40s before a warming trend begins.

Wednesday

With the southerly flow in place, we’ll start to see the formation of clouds on Wednesday. I think there is a chance that the morning skies will be reasonably clear, but at some point tomorrow we’re going to flip the switch to mostly cloudy skies. Highs will get into the low 70s, and lows on Wednesday night will only drop to around 60 degrees. Southeast winds may gust to around 20 mph, helping to usher drier air out of the region.

Thursday and Friday

These will be a pair of mostly cloudy days, with somewhat humid air, and highs in the mid-70s. Winds will be persistently from the south, but only at 10 to 15 mph. The only real question for each day is whether we’ll see any rain. I think there’s about a 20 percent chance of very light precipitation each day.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend’s weather will be a little more dynamic, unfortunately. For those of you a tad upset about nice weekdays and rainy weekends, I’m afraid I’ve got some bad news for you. Saturday and Sunday will both see a healthy chance of light to moderate rain showers before a front arrives sometime on Sunday to clear things out. We’re looking at highs in the mid-70s on Saturday and, depending on the timing of the front Sunday, upper 60s to 70s on Sunday.

The weekend doesn’t look to be a total washout, but I think there’s probably a 50 percent chance of showers each day, with accumulations of 0.25 to 0.75 inches for most, and a risk of higher isolated totals. So we don’t have any real flooding concerns, but these showers may definitely put a damper on outdoor activities. Lows on Sunday night will probably drop into the upper 40s.

Next week

The first half of next week should bring at least partly to mostly sunny skies, and we’ll see highs in the 60s with lows in the 40s. As the southerly flow returns mid-week Houston will return to warmer conditions, and there’s a signal for some rainfall by next Thursday or Friday. But at that point the crystal ball is starting to get pretty foggy.

Anyway, have a great day everyone. I hope you can steal some time outside. Also, I was just kidding about finding something to complain about. I have no doubt on y’all’s ability there.

Summary: In this post we discuss the very wet start to 2024 in Houston. As for the forecast, our skies will turn sunnier later today, and remain so for a few days, with cooler nights. We’ll then warm up through Saturday, with a smattering of rain chances to end the work week, and better odds with a front later this weekend.

Winter rains

We are now a little more than a month into the new year, and I don’t know about anyone else, but my backyard is a swamp. Through this weekend, Houston’s official station at Bush Intercontinental Airport has recorded 10.50 inches of rainfall. In the city’s records, which date back more than 140 years, we have only surpassed that total on two different occasions: 1891 (13.12″) and 1991 (11.73″).

Matt put together the chart above which shows accumulated rainfall, by day, for each year in Houston since 1950. (The chart only includes data for the last 75 years for the sake of visibility). This year is shown in dark black. The year which sticks out like a sore thumb, of course, is 2017 when we were drenched by Hurricane Harvey.

This year’s rainfall is part of a fairly typical pattern for an El Niño winter, which tends to cause wetter conditions due to the placement of the jet stream. The pattern has produced an enormous amount of rainfall over California in particular this winter, which Matt has explained more deeply on The Eyewall.

Monday

Winds are continuing to blow across the metro area, with gusts up to 30 mph in some areas during the last hour. This northerly flow should start to ease a bit later this afternoon before the winds die down tonight. A few light showers are falling this morning, but they should end soon. With clearing skies this afternoon, highs should reach the mid-60s. Low temperatures tonight will drop into the mid-40s in Houston, with cooler conditions for areas further inland.

Tuesday

This will be a fine, sunny day. Expect light winds, low humidity, and highs in the mid- to upper-60s. Lows on Tuesday night will drop into the mid-40s.

Wednesday

With the return of an the onshore flow on Tuesday night, we’ll see a fairly pronounced southerly breeze on Wednesday. This should bring increasing cloud cover during the afternoon hours, with highs topping out at around 70 degrees. Lows on Wednesday night will only drop to around 60 degrees.

Thursday and Friday

The combination of increasing moisture in the atmosphere and a front stalling north of Houston should result in some cloudy and warmer days to end the work week. I think highs will get into the mid-70s, with fairly humid air. Some scattered showers are possible, although I would peg daily chances only at about 30 percent, with slight accumulations.

Saturday and Sunday

Saturday should be warm again, with highs perhaps in the mid-70s, and cloudy skies. After that I don’t have great confidence in the details. At some point a front is likely to move through with some attendant rain showers. My best guess for the timing of this is Sunday morning, but that’s somewhat of a crapshoot at this point. Sunday’s temperatures will be dependent on the timing of the front, so they could be in the 60s or the 70s. I don’t anticipate an enormous amount of rain with the front, perhaps something on the order of a few tenths of an inch in the Houston metro area with the possibility of higher totals north of the city. We’ll see.

Next week

Next week looks cooler, with highs in the 60s, and lows perhaps in the 40s or 50s. But after that I don’t have much confidence in whether we’re dry, or some showers hang around early in the week. We’ll have to iron that out in a future forecast.

Summary: After a few days of gorgeous weather Houston’s pattern has begun to change with a more southerly flow. By late Friday night this is likely to produce some showers and thunderstorms, which will likely peak in activity on Saturday morning. Then we should see sunny and cooler weather through the middle of next week.

I also want to thank everyone for their kind words about our sponsorship agreement with Reliant, and the slight tweaks in our site design. Essentially we’ve changed the font for headlines, and updated the header image at the top of the page. For those who don’t know, I essentially created Space City Weather on a Friday night in October 2015, in a few hours, ahead of some storms. So the (now dated) header image was rushed. I grabbed a NASA image of the Space Shuttle carrier aircraft flying over the Houston skyline, cropped it, added some text, and called it done. The new design looks more professional and updates the “space” iconography to the International Space Station. I loved the Shuttle, but it did retire 12 years ago. Our friends and neighbors are flying on the station at this very moment, so it embodies Space City.

Thursday

After some patchy fog lifts this morning we’re going to see a partly sunny day. Temperatures will again be mild, reaching about 70 degrees. As mentioned above, the winds will be from the south at 5 to 10 mph, and this will start to raise humidity levels a bit. But with dewpoints in the 50s it will still feel reasonably dry. Lows tonight will drop into the mid-50s.

Friday

Temperatures will again rise to around 70 degrees, or just above. Skies will be partly sunny. It will be a little more humid than Thursday, and a little more breezy. But still nice. While I can’t entirely rule out some light showers on Friday evening, I think the rain will hold off for the most part until after midnight. So any Friday evening activities you have look good to go at this point.

Saturday

An upper level disturbance, along with the next cold front, will begin affecting our weather early on Saturday. While we’re not fully in the realm of high resolution modeling yet, my sense is that we’ll see on-and off showers and thunderstorms overnight, with a line of storms pushing through some time on Saturday morning. After this line of storms we may see a few lingering showers into the afternoon hours.

How strong will the storms be? As there will be a fair amount of shear, I can see the potential for some damaging winds. The other concern is heavy rainfall. It still looks like most of the area will see 1 to 3 inches of rainfall, but the good news is that the storms are likely to be fairly progressive in moving from west to east. So I don’t see a whole lot of training. The potential for heavy rainfall is generally greater to the east of Houston.

Drier air will start to filter into Houston on Saturday afternoon, so we should see at least some partly sunny skies later in the day. Temperatures will likely be in the upper 60s. Lows on Saturday night will drop to around 50 degrees in Houston, with cooler conditions for outlying areas.

Sunday

Sunday looks sunny and pleasant, with highs in the upper 60s—but there’s a catch. We’re going to see an additional push of cooler and drier air, and this will result in a windy day, with gusts up to about 30 mph from the north. These winds will persist overnight, when temperatures drop into the 40s, and Monday morning.

Next week

We’ll see sunny and cooler conditions, with nights in the 40s, through the middle of the week. After that daytime temperatures will warm into the low 70s, probably, into the weekend. Conditions look mild throughout, with a slight chance of rain returning by next Saturday or Sunday.