Eric Berger

Summary: After mild conditions today we’re looking ahead to the possibility of widespread showers and the potential for thunderstorms on Thursday. Following that, the weekend looks exceptional, especially Saturday. Also, in today’s post, we note that the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season is likely to be a busy one.

Looking ahead to hurricane season

Before jumping into the forecast for this week, I want to look ahead to the coming Atlantic hurricane season. It formally begins in a little more than two months, on June 1. For the full rundown, I want to point you to our companion site, The Eyewall, where Matt has gone in depth. But the long and short of it is this: It’s becoming increasingly difficult to objectively look at things without concluding that the upcoming hurricane season could be a very active one. Here are some key takeaway messages:

• El Niño continues to slowly erode away in the Equatorial Pacific.
• La Niña development continues to look plausible, if not likely by August or September, a feather in the cap of an active hurricane season forecast.
• Atlantic Ocean sea-surface temperatures remain excessively warm virtually everywhere that matters.
• We are likely to see some very active hurricane season forecasts get released in the coming weeks.

By no means does an active, or even a hyper-active, Atlantic hurricane season mean that the upper Texas coast will be impacted this summer. It just raises the likelihood of this occurring. We’ll have more information for you on preparedness measures to take in the coming weeks.

Wednesday

It’s a mild morning, with temperatures generally in the mid- to upper-50s. We’ll see a bit of sunshine, but for the most part skies this afternoon will be mostly cloudy, and this will help to limit highs to around 70 degrees. Although we’re now under the influence of a southerly flow, we’ll still see some fairly dry air in place today, so humidity will be fairly low. Winds will be out of the southeast at 5 to 10 mph. Some very light, very scattered showers are possible this afternoon and evening, but for the most part I expect these to hold off until Thursday. Lows tonight will drop into the low 60s.

Thursday

Here comes the rain. With the approach of low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico, we’ll see an increasing amount of moisture in the atmosphere. Some time on Thursday morning, probably (but not certainly) before sunrise, we’ll start to see development of scattered showers and thunderstorms. These will likely become more widespread after sunrise and through the morning hours. We may see a bit of a reprieve during the late afternoon and early evening hours, but a final round of storms could push through late Thursday evening or during the overnight hours. The primary threats from this system are heavy rainfall, with accumulations of 1 to 3 inches possible, and hail.

Highs on Thursday will reach about 70 degrees, with easterly winds. Lows on Thursday night will drop to around 60 degrees.

Friday

We’ll see a northwesterly flow on Friday in the wake of Thursday’s storms, and this should allow for clearing skies. With more sunshine, expect highs to push into the mid- to upper-70s. As a bit of drier air moves in, look for lows on Friday night to drop into the 50s, and possibly the low 50s for areas further inland.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend looks fine for outdoor activities—especially Saturday. We’ll see plenty of sunshine, light winds, and dry air. Look for highs in the upper 70s. Really, could you ask for more? Sunday will still see a bit of sunshine, but we’re going to see the onshore flow returning, and I expect we’ll see some gusty southerly winds at 20 or 25 mph and increasing cloud cover. Highs will again be in the upper 70s, probably.

Next week

We’ll see some rain chances on Monday, and possibly another chance at storms, with the passage of a cold front. This will set the stage for a pleasant week with highs in the 70s and low in the 50s. Seriously, this is peak spring in Houston, and I am here for it.

Summary: After this morning Houston will see a warming trend. The biggest question about this week’s weather concerns the potential for rainfall on Thursday, with chances for accumulations above 1 inch increasing. Things clear out on Friday, setting the stage for a grand spring weekend.

One of the final cold nights

It’s a fairly chilly morning for late March. Nearly all of the Houston metro area, aside from the immediate coast, has fallen into the 40s. Some locations in Montgomery County have even reached the upper 30s. As of 6:50 am CT, the city’s official station has dropped to 43 degrees. I think it’s possible this is the coldest weather we see until at least next October, if not later. (Last fall, the season’s first night colder than this came on Nov. 1). In any case, we face a potentially chilly spell about 10 days from now, but I’m not sure we are going to get this cold. So if you like your weather on the cooler side of the mercury, make sure and soak up this morning.

Tuesday

I’m showing my biases here, but today is going to be one my favorite kind of days in Houston: Sunny skies, light winds, dry air, and highs in the upper 60s. It’s going to be just absolutely pleasant. There will be subtle changes later today, however, as winds shift to come from the south. That will allow temperatures to be several degrees warmer tonight, dropping only into the 50s. Even so, this should be our coolest night for the next week.

Wednesday

Under the influence of a warmer flow, look for highs around 70 degrees with partly sunny skies. Winds will still be fairly light and the humidity still fairly low.

Thursday

A coastal low pressure system will approach the Houston region, and this will bring a healthy chance of rain showers to the area. My sense is that light rain will begin during the pre-dawn hours on Thursday, with perhaps somewhat stronger showers developing during the morning hours and persisting into the afternoon. During recent runs, forecast models have gotten a bit more bullish on totals, so I think it’s reasonable to expect 0.5 to 2 inches for most of the area, with a better chance of seeing the higher end totals closer to the coast. Highs will be in the low 70s with rains ending during the afternoon or evening. Lows drop to around 60 degrees.

Friday

In the wake of this system the weather should return to pleasant conditions, with sunny skies, highs in the mid-70s and lows dropping into the upper 50s.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend looks swell. We’re going to generally see lows in the upper 50s and highs in the mid- to upper-70s. Sunshine will likely prevail on Saturday, with a few more clouds on Sunday. If you have outdoor plans, you picked a great weekend for them.

Next week

We’re likely to see the return of some showers on Monday or so, but there’s not a strong signal for significant rain accumulations. At least at this point. Some kind of front should drag into Houston later on Monday, but I don’t have great confidence in its strength. Regardless, next week probably will see more mild March weather.

Summary: After a stormy weekend Houston’s weather takes a turn to the sunny side of things. In fact, we should see rather mild weather for the rest of the month, with only some very sporadic rain chances.

That brief period of Goldilocks weather

It’s March 18. The Houston Livestock Show and Rodeo is over. After living here for decades, my sense is that prior to the rodeo we are still capable of seeing cold, winter-like weather. Then, after the three-week show wraps up, our chances of really cold weather are pretty much over and we’re deep into spring. And that’s certainly the case this year.

Although temperatures tonight are likely to drop into the upper 40s in Houston, the remainder of the month looks fairly mild, with lows generally in the 50s and low 60s, and highs in the 70s. This is the ephemeral period of Houston weather in which we can enjoy a balance between the extremes, the Goldilocks weather that’s not too hot, and not too cold.

Monday

After an at-times turbulent weekend with passing showers and storms, drier air associated with a cool front is finally moving into Houston this morning. We’ll see breezy conditions this afternoon, with gusts up to 25 or 30 mph from the north, as this drier air arrives. Skies, otherwise, will be partly sunny with temperatures in the upper 60s. Tonight will be the chilliest night of the week, as winds slacken and skies clear. Look for Houston to drop into the 40s, albeit precisely where in the 40s will depend on your location.

Tuesday

This will be a banger of a spring-time day, with mostly sunny skies, light winds, dry air, and highs in the mid- to upper-60s. Lows on Tuesday night will drop into the mid-50s as a light southerly flow reestablishes itself.

Wednesday

We’ll be a bit warmer, and a bit more humid on Wednesday as the onshore flow continues. Look for highs of around 70 degrees, with partly sunny skies, and light southeasterly winds. Lows on Wednesday night will drop to around 60 degrees.

Thursday

Somewhat more dynamic weather is possible on Thursday as a coastal low pressure system approaches. This will bring a chunky chance of rain into the area, but the finer details remain elusive. The question is whether the bulk of the precipitation remains offshore, or not. For now I’ll say that if you live inland of Interstate 10, there’s maybe a 40 percent chance of rain, and that becomes increasingly higher as one gets closer to the coast. This is the kind of system that probably will bring 0.25 to 1 inch of rain to most, but again we’re painting with a broad brush here. Highs, otherwise, should be in the low 70s with mostly cloudy skies.

Friday

As the low moves off we should see sunny and mild conditions, with highs in the 70s.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend looks mild, with partly to mostly sunny skies, and highs in the upper 70s to possibly 80 degrees. Nights will be mild, in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Rain chances, at this point, look low to non-existent. It looks like good bike riding weather to me.

Next week

By around Monday or Tuesday of next week the region’s next front should arrive. It may (or may not) bring some rain showers with it. This should carry our mild, spring-like weather through the end of the month, which likely means more highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s.

Summary: The weekend continues to look fairly wet, with early Sunday morning the time at which we’re most likely to see heavy rainfall and organized storms.

As expected, storms on Friday brought some heavy rainfall and hail into the greater Houston region. The worst of this occurred in southern Fort Bend County, near Needville. Hail as large as 2.75 inches in diameter, which is very nearly the size of a baseball, was reported there and caused significant damage to structures. Fortunately, the conditions for severe weather are less favorable moving forward into today and Sunday.

So what should you anticipate? The radar is quiet this morning, and should remain so into the early afternoon hours. It is possible that a storm system to our southwest will move into Houston late this afternoon or early evening. However I think the most likely outcome is that it veers south of our area, or weakens substantially. Probably, then, we’ll see scattered, light to moderate showers this afternoon and evening. But there is a slight chance of some stronger thunderstorms we cannot entirely dismiss.

The forecast for tonight and Sunday morning is a little more interesting. It appears as though a fairly strong atmospheric disturbance will approach from the west and produce a line of showers and thunderstorms tonight. In terms of timing, I’d anticipate these storms arriving on our western doorstep between 3 am and 6 am, and then pushing through Houston around sunrise and off the coast shortly afterward. Accumulations will vary widely, but I expect 1 to 3 inches of rain will be possible.

For the rest of Sunday, we can anticipate on and off showers throughout the day, with cloudy skies and the mid-70s. I’m afraid the chance of rain will not entirely go away until drier air starts arriving behind a front on Sunday night.

The bottom line is that this weekend looks fairly wet, but perhaps not disastrously so. Please remain weather aware as you venture out and about. We’ll update further this weekend, if necessary.