Eric Berger

In brief: While the probability of severe weather is lower today, the Houston region is still likely to see the development of storms later this morning, lasting through the afternoon hours. Please be weather-aware if you’re out and about today.

Welcome to June, and the beginning of the Atlantic hurricane season. Speaking of which, on our companion site The Eyewall, Matt lays out some reasons by you should be wary, but not decidedly worried about what’s expected to be a frenetic season. The good news is that things look quiet for now.

Today’s weather may not be quiet in Houston, however. As of 9:30 am this morning, a mass of showers and thunderstorms has developed to the southwest of Houston, near Palacios and Matagorda Bay. Generally, I expect these storms to lift to the north-northeast into the metro area later this morning and throughout the afternoon hours.

What does that mean? If you have activities planned from around 11 am to 7 pm today, you should be weather-aware. Considering variables such as atmospheric instability, I don’t think we’re looking at bedlam. Yes, there’s the potential for small hail or damaging winds, but conditions are not ideal for severe weather. So it’s a possibility. Perhaps a bigger concern is that some of the storms today may be slow-movers, so a few parts of Houston may see some rain bullseyes of 2 to 4 inches and some street flooding. For most of us, however, I think the impact will be less. In any case, it does appear as though things will start to clear out with the loss of daytime heating this evening.

I don’t feel overly confident in the forecast for Sunday, but it does seem possible that we could see some scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon hours, again, with daytime heating. Coverage should be less than today. If the forecast changes significantly for later today or Sunday, we’ll update as warranted. If not, we’ll see you on Monday morning.

In brief: Expect quiet weather this evening, but the Houston region is likely to see another round of showers and thunderstorms on Saturday, and possibly Sunday as well before high pressure takes control.

Good afternoon. The round of strong to severe thunderstorms that worked its way through Houston this morning has helped work over the atmosphere such that we’re seeing quiet conditions this afternoon. Due to this more stable atmosphere, we are likely to see continued fair weather this evening and into the overnight hours—which is good news if you have outdoor plans, graduation celebrations, or other activities.

The question becomes, then, what happens on Saturday?

Although Friday night into early Saturday morning will most likely be calm, that does not mean we’re done with storm chances. It looks as though we’ll see an additional round of showers and thunderstorms on Saturday. Some of these could become severe, but I anticipate they will be less severe than those on Friday morning, with the main threat being damaging winds, and possibly some slight chances for hail. In terms of timing, I expect these storms to flare up during the mid-morning hours in coastal counties before spreading inland. Heavy rainfall may briefly cause some street flooding. I’m hopeful we’ll see a reprieve in stormy weather on Saturday evening, and again during the overnight hours.

As for Sunday, storm chances will diminish, but I’m not ready to write them off entirely as high pressure won’t really be in place yet. Another round of showers looks to be possible, but not overly likely, during the morning hours of Sunday. The rest of next week still looks mostly sunny, with highs in the low- to mid-90s.

We’ll have another update on Saturday morning to fine tune the storm forecast.

In brief: In the absence of high pressure, Houston’s atmosphere remains open to the passing of shortwave disturbances over the coming days. At this point Friday looks like it could see the most organized showers and thunderstorms, and the greatest chance of damaging winds, hail, and heavy rainfall. By Sunday storm chances start to wane, with next week looking warmer and mostly sunny.

Thursday

Skies will be partly sunny today, with high temperatures in the upper 80s. Like on Wednesday, this daytime heating should lead to the development of showers and thunderstorms during the period of 3 to 9 pm. Some of these could become severe. However, at this time I think chances are better along and north of Interstate 10, rather than closer to the coast. (Speaking of coastal areas, I wanted to shout-out the senior class of Clear Creek High School, where I’ve gotten to know a lot of great kids. Enjoy graduation this evening!) Lows tonight will be in the upper 70s.

Like on Wednesday, we’ll be monitoring the potential for storm development closely, and if the forecast for today or Friday changes significantly we will update the site accordingly this afternoon.

Friday

At this point it looks like a more organized round of storms will move into the Houston area on Friday morning, likely sweeping into Houston around sunrise, give or take. This system will offer the best chance of severe weather, including damaging winds and hail. Depending on the severity of this system, there may be a second round of storms with daytime heating in the afternoon. (I.e. if the morning storms are weaker, there will be a better chance of a second round later in the day). Bottom line: If you need to be out and about tomorrow morning, be weather aware.

I would guess that most of Houston see an additional 1 to 2 inches of rain through Friday, but my concern is for higher bullseyes in stronger thunderstorms. At this point, Friday evening looks to see a break in showers. Daytime highs will be in the upper 80s.

Saturday

Our atmosphere will remain unsettled into the weekend, especially for Saturday. I don’t have much confidence in the details yet, but we could see another round of showers during the daytime on Saturday. These storms, at this point, do not look particularly severe. Highs, otherwise, should be around 90 degrees with partly sunny skies.

Sunday

We may see some additional showers on Sunday morning, but I’m far from confident in that. Skies, otherwise, should be partly sunny with temperatures in the low 90s. If you have outdoor plans later in the day or evening on Sunday, I’d feel at least somewhat confident in them.

Next week

As high pressure settles in next week we’ll revert to mostly sunny skies and warmer temperatures. Highs should be pushing into the mid-90s toward the end of the week. Rain chances are low, probably close to zero. So it goes in summer under such a pressure system.

In brief: Although we are unlikely to see a system as organized as the storms on Tuesday, we’ll continue to see daily shower and thunderstorms chances this week as Houston’s overall pattern remains unsettled. On the plus side, this weather should help to keep high temperatures in the upper 80s into the weekend.

Tuesday’s storms brought numerous reports of hail, some of which was as large as ping pong balls, as a system raced across Houston from north to south. Intense, albeit short-lived rainfall also flooded some Houston streets during the afternoon hours. And then there were the winds, with the highest gust observed at Bush Intercontinental Airport, 75 mph. (See more values here). According to CenterPoint, they’ve managed to restore power to a majority of the approximately 300,000 customers who lost power, but 37,000 remain without electricity this morning.

We will continue to monitor storm chances this week closely, and will update Space City Weather when warranted.

Wednesday

With a fair amount of moisture in the atmosphere, and the absence of high pressure, we’ll see conditions somewhat favorable for the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon at the peak of daytime heating. The most likely time for such storms will be from about 3 pm to 9 pm this afternoon, and a few of these cells could produce some hail or damaging winds. But for most areas the impact should be less than this. Otherwise, we’ll see mostly cloudy skies, with light easterly winds. Low temperatures tonight will drop into the upper 70s.

Thursday

With a similar atmospheric setup, I expect Thursday to be similar to Wednesday with development of showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. Again, this activity looks to be fairly scattered, but we’ll be watching closely for potential changes to this forecast. Highs should be in the upper 80s again for most of the area.

Friday

Overall chances for strong thunderstorms may be a little higher on Friday, both in terms of wind and hail, but also the threat of heavy rainfall. However, the details are fuzzy, so for now the best we can say is that Friday may be messy. Look for highs in the upper 80s.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend should bring with it partly sunny skies and highs in the upper 80s to about 90 degrees for most of Houston. We’ll continue to see passing disturbances that may bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms. But ultimately, whether that happens during the daytime or the overnight hours is difficult to say. If you have outdoor plans this weekend I’d have some hope that they’ll come off, but also a backup plan. Hopefully we’ll have more confidence in a weekend forecast, with timing details, in a day or two.

Next week

Daily storm chances diminish next week, as we see more sunshine. Rain chances may not go away entirely, but they should be lower, perhaps on the order of 10 to 20 percent daily. As a result daily highs will start climbing, first into the low 90s early next week, to possibly mid-90s by the end of the week. We shall see.

Note

Please check back at 10 am this morning for the release of our monthly Q&A. Hope you like this one!