Eric Berger

Living in Houston is such a weird trip. We’ll go through an event like Hurricane Harvey and never, ever want to see another rain drop again. Then we’ll go through something like last summer, with its heat and drought, and the first decent rain of the fall will feel so damn cathartic. I don’t know about you, but after this week my pendulum has swung back toward not wanting to see it rain for awhile. I could do with some sunshine.

The good news is that the Sun will rise again. The bad news is that we have to get through tonight. Here’s a quick look at the forecast for the rest of today and tonight.

Wednesday night and Thursday

There have been plenty of rain showers across the metro area today, but accumulations have been manageable with most areas picking up 1 to 2 inches. We should see a few more hours of on-and-off showers before they become more scattered in nature this evening. This lull will be short lived however, as a weak front pushes through during the overnight hours.

What can you expect? Sometime between about midnight and 4 am, a broad line of showers and thunderstorms should push from west to east across the Houston region. There will be plenty of sound and fury, but the good news is that these storms should keep moving. I expect they will have cleared the area by around 4 to 6 am, so I don’t anticipate them posing a problem with getting out and about on Thursday morning. (Getting solid sleep on Wednesday night might be a problem, however, for those light sleepers among us.) In terms of accumulations overnight, I expect we’ll see some heavy rainfall, but due to storm motions I’d only anticipate accumulations of 0.5 to 1.5 inches.

We should see partly sunny skies on Thursday, with highs of around 70 degrees and some drier air—so pretty darn nice out. The region will see another chance of showers (likely with minimal accumulations) later on Friday ahead of a stronger front. This will usher in several days of sunny skies and much drier air. So by Saturday morning we’ll be done with the rain for awhile.

Summary: On Tuesday and Tuesday night the axis of heavy rainfall fell over areas north of Houston, inundating locations such as College Station and Huntsville with 3 to 6 inches. But by early Wednesday morning, as anticipated, the focus has shifted southward into Houston and down to the coast. On-and-off showers and thunderstorms can be expected for much of today in those areas. This will cause street flooding in some locations and care should be taken. A Stage 1 flood alert remains in effect for today and tonight.

Wednesday

The radar shows at-times intense pulses of showers and thunderstorms moving from southwest to northeast across the southern half of the Houston metro area this morning in response to a passing disturbance. These storms have dropped 1 to 3 inches since midnight near the coast and will continue for much of the day. However there is some evidence that the storms should wane, somewhat, in intensity later this morning and during the afternoon hours. Accordingly, we can probably expect additional accumulations of 1 to 3 inches for areas south of Interstate 10. Rain is likely further inland today as well, but accumulations should be less with the focus near the coast.

In terms of impacts, as of 6 am CT, Houston Transtar is showing no significant problems on area freeways. In terms of area rivers and bayous, Jeff Lindner of Harris County Flood Control District said he expects to see some minor flooding today along the East and West Forks of the San Jacinto River. Other bayous, for now, look to be in good condition.

High temperatures today will reach the upper 60s, with cloudy skies. Winds will be light, generally from the northwest. The best time for a break in showers will come late this afternoon into the evening hours for the Houston area.

Thursday

I expect that an additional round of showers will develop to the west of Houston late on Wednesday night, and then push through the area from west to east overnight. These storms, perhaps producing another 0.5 to 1.0 inch of rain for some locations, will end as somewhat drier air moves in with a weak front. After lingering showers end during the morning hours on Thursday, we can probably expect partly sunny skies, with highs near 70 degrees. Lows on Thursday night will drop into the 50s.

Friday

This should be another day with highs in the upper 60s to 70 degrees. Skies will be mostly cloudy. We’ll see a decent chance of showers—it doesn’t look like anything impactful—later on Friday or Friday night as a stronger front pushes through Houston. This will set the stage for clearer and sunny weather.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend will be sunny and chilly. Look for highs of about 60 degrees on both days. Saturday will be a bit breezy, with winds from the north, but Sunday should be fairly serene. Lows on both Saturday and Sunday nights will drop into the 40s in Houston, with upper 30s possible for areas further inland.

Next week

The first half of next week will see continued winter-like weather, with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s. By mid-week we’ll start warming some, and some slight- to moderate rain chances return later next week and into the weekend to go along with mild temperatures.

Summary: As expected, much of the storm action has remained north of Interstate 10 today, and that’s where the focus will likely stay through the evening. However, after a lull through the late evening hours, a strong storm system will move in from the southwest, affecting primarily coastal regions. We are maintaining a Stage 1 flood alert through Wednesday night.

Tuesday evening

A line of storms is draped across the northwest periphery of the Houston region, affecting areas such as Brenham, College Station, and Huntsville. This system should persist through the evening hours, mostly remaining to the north of Interstate 10, and likely weakening over time. An additional 1 to 3 inches of rainfall are possible for these areas between now and midnight.

Early on Wednesday

For a few hours around midnight, our area may see a bit of a lull, but then another storm system will be moving in from the southwest. This one is likely to develop near Matagorda Bay around midnight, and steadily progress to the northeast during the pre-dawn hours, bringing strong storms to Galveston and other coastal areas, and the potential for strong storms along and south of Interstate 10 in the Houston metro area. Some of these storms will likely be intense, with some high rainfall rates.

The only good news I can offer is that the system looks fairly progressive, so it should push off to the east by around sunrise on Wednesday. Therefore I don’t expect (too much) mayhem for Wednesday morning’s commute. In terms of accumulations, we could see 1 to 3 inches in the coastal counties by Wednesday morning, with the possibility of some higher bullseyes.

Later Wednesday and Thursday

Things may settle down a bit on Wednesday in the Houston metro area, but we’re likely to continue to see at least some disorganized showers and possibly thunderstorms. Coastal counties may see another round of storms late on Wednesday evening or early on Thursday, but I don’t have great confidence in that forecast just yet.

A weak front arrives on Thursday morning, and this should push all of the rain showers to our east sometime during the morning hours. Phew—I can’t imagine too many people will complain about seeing the backside of rain showers for a little while.

We’ll be back with a comprehensive update early on Wednesday morning.

Summary: The Houston area picked up 1 to 4 inches of rainfall on Monday, and we’ll see ongoing bursts of precipitation through Thursday morning. Today the focus shifts north of the metro area, to areas including The Woodlands, Kingwood, and College Station. By Wednesday morning the threat appears to be more centered on coastal areas, including Galveston. We’re maintaining a Stage 1 flood alert for now, but will continue to monitor things closely.

Tuesday

Things are fairly quiet just before sunrise this morning, but showers and thunderstorms are developing to the west of the area in response to disturbance that will move through the region today. This feature will likely bring 1 to 4 inches of rain to areas north of Interstate 10, with the highest totals likely near locations such as College Station and Huntsville. In Houston I expect a somewhat calmer day, with 1 inch of rain or less in the city on down to the coast.

Temperature-wise, today will be fairly warm for January, with highs of about 70 degrees. Skies will be cloudy, with southeasterly winds occasionally gusting to 15 or 20 mph. Low temperatures tonight will only drop into the mid-60s, with continued humid air. Storms will be possible after midnight in the metro area, which I’ll discuss below.

Wednesday

High-resolution models are indicating the development of strong showers and thunderstorms early on Wednesday morning for locations along and south of Interstate 10. While we cannot have great confidence yet, it does look like coastal areas from Port Lavaca to Galveston to Beaumont could see heavy rainfall during the pre-sunrise hours. Some of these storms could well migrate northward into the Houston metro area, setting up the potential for a messy commute on Wednesday morning.

In any case, unlike Tuesday, Wednesday looks rather wet in the Houston urban area, with the potential for street flooding. If there’s more clarity later today we may post an update. I expect additional accumulations of 2 to 4 inches of rain, with higher totals possible near and along the coast. It will be another warm-ish and humid day for most of Houston, with highs of about 70 degrees, but it may be a bit cooler to the northwest of the city.

Thursday

A weak front that will move into the Houston region and stall northwest of the area should finally push through the city early on Thursday morning. I expect this to drive one more round of showers and thunderstorms during the pre-dawn hours before this mess finally exits to the east. Look for partly clearing skies later in the day with highs in the 60s. Lows on Thursday night should drop into the 50s.

Friday

Expect a partly sunny day with highs of around 70 degrees. We’ll see a chance of showers later on Friday and Friday night as a second, stronger front approaches the area. Right now accumulations don’t look too significant, but we’ll see.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend should see mostly sunny, winter-like weather. Look for highs in the mid-60s on Saturday, with a northerly wind gusting at times to 20 or 25 mph. Lows drop into the 40s overnight, with highs on Sunday reaching the lower 60s. I’m looking forward to taking advantage of the sunnier and mild weather with a long bike ride.

Next week

Look for calm weather to prevail through Wednesday, with highs generally in the 60s and lows in the 40s. A warming trend begins later on Wednesday or Thursday with some slight rain chances returning by Thursday or so. All in all, it should provide a nice run of pleasant weather after this turbulent week.