Eric Berger

Summary: Rain showers are moving into the Houston area from the west, and we’ll see the threat of heavy rainfall from now through Wednesday. It will be a decidedly soggy period, and we have instituted a Stage 1 flood alert to account for the potential of street flooding.

Monday

As expected, an upper-level storm system is inching toward our area, and this is producing widespread showers to the west of Houston. These showers and thunderstorms will spread across the metro area this morning and remain with us for much of the day. I expect most of the area, from the Brazos Valley on down to Galveston, to pick up 1 to 4 inches of rainfall today and this evening. Rain chances are effectively 100 percent with a saturated atmosphere and ample sources of lift. The one good thing I can say about the showers is that, generally, individual storm cells should push through fairly quickly from west to east. So the overall threat of ‘training’ storms is lower. There may be a brief lull in rain showers this evening or during the overnight hours before a second round of showers pushes in early on Tuesday.

In terms of temperatures, after a cold weekend, we’re seeing a surge of warmer air that will remain with us for most of this week. Highs today should reach the low- to mid-60s, with low temperatures tonight only dropping to around 60 degrees. Winds will also be noticeable today, blowing from the southeast at 15 or 20 mph, with gusts up to 30 mph. So yeah, not a great day for a picnic.

Tuesday

This will be another day that favors widespread rainfall. However, it’s possible that this setup will produce higher rain totals to the north of Interstate 10, and areas further inland, instead of closer to the coast. In any case, much of the area could pick up an additional 1 to 3 inches of rainfall. Highs will again be in the 60s to near 70 degrees. It’s possible that we see another lull in rain chances during the evening or overnight hours.

Wednesday

This should be the region’s final day of widespread showers, although conditions look marginally less favorable than on Monday and Tuesday. Still, pretty much everyone is going to see rain, with totals in the vicinity of 0.5 to 2 inches, probably. Highs will be in the upper 60s. I expect most people to pick up 4 to 6 inches of rainfall through Wednesday, with some areas seeing greater bullseyes.

Thursday and Friday

These will be a pair of partly sunny days, with highs around 70 degrees, slightly less humidity, and nights in the 50s. Rain chances won’t go away entirely, but they should drop down to about 20 or 30 percent each day.

Saturday and Sunday

Saturday should be partly sunny, with highs perhaps in the 60s. We’ll see a decently strong front push through sometime during the early morning hours or daytime, and there may be a smattering of rain with the front. Afterwards lows drop into the 40s. Sunday should be sunny, with highs perhaps around 60 degrees.

Next week

Most of next week looks quiet, with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s. Rain chances look fairly low through at least Wednesday or so, giving us some needed time to dry out.

Site note

Matt and I will be monitoring today’s rainfall closely, and if an update is needed to our flooding expectations, we’ll update accordingly.

Summary: Today will be cloudy and cold, but there should be no issues with outdoor activities. That begins to change tonight and especially on Monday morning, as a storm system moves in from the west. Expect on-and-off showers, along with heavy rain and potentially some street flooding through the middle of the week.

Sunday

Most of the region is starting out in the mid- to upper-30s this morning, and we’re going to see overcast skies. This will help to limit highs in the low 50s today, with an easterly breeze, perhaps gusting to 20 mph at times. From there, temperatures aren’t going to fall much tonight, if at all. Any rain showers should hold off until after midnight.

Monday

This is the day we expect the heaviest and most widespread rain to fall in Houston this week. An upper-level system will bring favorable conditions for rainfall, and this should spread into the region during the morning hours. At this point I expect a mass of showers to congeal west of Houston before sunrise, and potentially reach areas such as Katy by around 6 to 8 am. Please understand that these times are approximate, and there is the potential for some messy commuting on Monday morning.

We should see widespread showers and thunderstorms for pretty much all of the daytime hours in Houston, and I expect most of us to pick up 2 to 4 inches of rainfall. That should be mostly manageable, but we have a few concerns. One is that some areas may see bullseyes of 5 inches or more. The second concern is that the ground is hard from our recent freezes, so instead of soaking up a lot of this rainfall, the water will run off. So 4 inches of rain in January will back up much more quickly than 4 inches in August.

For this reason we’re issuing a Stage 1 flood alert for Monday due primarily to the potential for street flooding. It will be a good day to be weather aware before heading out. Certainly not everyone will see impacts, but the potential is there.

Tuesday and Wednesday

After a possible lull on Monday evening, we are likely to see additional rounds of showers from the period of Monday night through Wednesday. It’s a little early to have much confidence in the contours of these additional periods of rainfall, but it’s my hope that they won’t be quite as intense on Monday.

In terms of temperatures, we’re going to be much milder after Sunday. Expect highs in the 60s with lows in the upper 50s. Conditions turn a bit cooler by the weekend, probably.

All told, I expect the Houston region to pick up between 4 and 8 inches this week. Matt and I will be monitoring the situation closely today, and the rest of the week to ensure that you remain on top of conditions. We will update the site, and our flood scale predictions, as warranted.

Summary: The hard freezes are over, and Houston will have a pleasant, mild, and partly sunny day today. But after that? We’re going to cool back down again for the weekend, and then next week we’ll see widespread rain showers with the threat of heavy rainfall.

Recapping this week’s cold weather

Very hard freezes are supposed to be rather uncommon in Southeast Texas, but our region has now experienced three during the last four winters, in February 2021, December 2022, and January 2024. The worst of these was in 2021, when the cold was its sharpest, and most prolonged, with a winter storm on top of it. But the other two cold snaps, including this week, were significant. Here, via Harris County Flood Control District’s Jeff Linder, is a comparison of the coldest temperatures during each freeze:

Thursday

The combination of light winds and temperatures matching dewpoints has led to foggy conditions across much of the metro area this morning. This should dissipate by around 9 am, but until then please exercise some caution on roadways. Some very light drizzle is also possible this morning.

Winds will increase later this morning, and this southerly flow will help push temperatures into the upper 60s. Skies should be partly sunny, making for a rather nice afternoon. However a fairly robust cold front will sweep into Houston tonight, likely after midnight, to bring a new round of chilly air. Lows drop to around 40 degrees by Friday morning.

Friday

This will be a sunny, breezy, and cool day. Look for highs to reach the lower 50s. Winds will peak during the morning hours, with gusts up to about 30 mph possible as the front blows in. These should subside somewhat during the afternoon, with mostly sunny skies. We’ll see ideal conditions for cooling overnight, and much of the metro area could see a light freeze.

Saturday

This will be a chilly day, with highs in the 40s and partly sunny skies. Lows on Saturday night will probably be a touch warmer than Friday night, but a light freeze will again be possible in parts of the area.

Sunday

Clouds return by Sunday, and they’re going to stay awhile. This will be another chilly day, although highs should get into the low 50s. Some light rain showers will be possible later in the day, but for now I think they’ll hold off until overnight when temperatures drop into the 40s.

Next week

Most of next week looks warm and wet, with highs in the vicinity of 70 degrees, and nights perhaps in the upper 50s. As a series of disturbances cross Texas and meet with a favorably moist atmosphere, we’re going to see a fair amount of rainfall. I still don’t feel overly confident in totals, but I think much of the area probably will see on the order of 2 to 8 inches through Friday. Whether all of this comes in bunches, and we have to worry about flooding, is another matter. In any case, prepare for a significant pattern change that will bring a new round of concerns beginning next Monday or so.

Summary: After a very cold night, Houston will emerge from the icebox over the next couple of days. Another front arrives Thursday night to cool us down for the weekend, when a light freeze will be possible. And after that? It will be warmer next week, with the likelihood of widespread showers. It’s too early to be too concerned about heavy rainfall, but something wet this way comes.

Wednesday

It’s really cold this morning. (Fun fact: Tuesday’s average temperature of 26 degrees was 28 degrees below normal. Alright, maybe that fact wasn’t that much fun). Temperatures across the metro area range from the mid-teens up in the middle of Montgomery County down to the upper 20s right on the coast.

Fortunately, this is as cold as it’s going to get. As soon as the Sun comes over the horizon, we’re going to see temperatures start climbing. Most of the region should be above freezing by 10 or 11 am CT this morning, on our way to highs in the mid-40s with sunny skies. As high pressure shifts to the east, we’ll see winds turning from the north to come from the southeast. As a result, lows tonight will only drop to around 40 degrees, with cloudy skies.

Thursday

This will be the warmest day of the week. Skies will start out cloudy, but we should see lots of sunshine during the afternoon hours. Look for highs to rise into the upper 60s to 70 degrees. Winds will be a bit gusty from the south, but it should feel pleasantly warm outside. But don’t get too attached as a front will come through on Thursday night, bringing an additional shot of colder air. The front’s passage should be a dry one, with lows dropping into the 40s overnight.

Friday

It will be sunny and cold on Friday, with highs perhaps only reaching 50 degrees. It’s also going to be rather windy, with gusts up to 30 mph from the north. Friday night should see a light freeze descend upon Houston again, with a hard freeze possible for far inland areas. Still, this night looks nothing like the cold were presently experiencing.

Saturday

Saturday should start out brisk and sunny. Highs are likely to only reach the mid-40s, and we’ll probably see some clouds developing during the afternoon hours. (If you’re wondering about weather in Baltimore on Saturday afternoon for the Texans game, it looks blustery and cold. Game-time temperatures should be in the low 20s, with gusty winds up to 30 mph. The wind chill will be about 10 degrees. No chance of snow, however. In CJ we trust, right?) Back in Houston, temperatures will again flirt with a freeze on Saturday night, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the urban core of Houston stays above freezing.

Sunday

I expect the sunshine to be largely gone on Sunday, with highs perhaps in the low 50s, give or take. Rain is definitely coming, but at this point I expect it to hold off until Sunday evening or the overnight hours.

Next week

It’s a bit too early for confidence in the details, but we’re going to see some distinct changes next week. Instead of very dry air, our atmosphere will turn more humid, indicative of much more moisture. Temperatures are going up, with daytime highs around 70 degrees, and nights likely somewhere in the 50s. And we’re going to see a series of disturbances move in from the west that will increase our rain chances.

Alongside this favorable setup, there is a pretty strong signal for rain showers during the period of Monday through Thursday across the models we look at. As a very preliminary guess, I’d say we’re probably looking at accumulations on the order of 2 to 6 inches. In the winter months rains pile up more quickly, because the evaporation rate is slower. So we’ll be keeping a tab on the potential for street flooding and other impacts. It’s not something to worry overmuch about right now, but if you have outdoor plans next week, well, good luck.