Eric Berger

Summary: In today’s post I discuss the bluebonnet season, and look ahead to warmer weather and a likely wet weekend. If you have outdoor plans, you’ll definitely want to keep tabs on the potential for precipitation.

Texas bluebonnets

I wanted to say a quick word about wildflowers in general, and bluebonnets in particular. If you’ve driven between Houston and Austin of late you know they’re spectacular. The combination of a very hot summer last year, which thinned out wildflower competition, and a relatively wet winter created near ideal conditions for this bluebonnet season. “On a scale from one to 10, this year looks like it could be an eight, for bluebonnets in particular, if not even better,” said Andrea DeLong-Amaya, of the Lady Bird Johnson Wildflower Center, in a forecast a few weeks ago.

A reader of Space City Weather, Niloeby Montenoeci, was kind enough to share a few photos taken of late. We are right about at peak season right now, so be sure and check these lovely flowers out.

Tuesday

It took awhile for skies to clear on Monday, but when they did conditions were lovely across the Houston metro area. Today will be a little more humid, a little warmer, and a little more cloudy. We can expect highs in the upper 70s this afternoon, with partly to mostly cloudy skies, and light southerly winds. This is the beginning of moisture return that should eventually set the stage for some healthy rain chances later this week.

Rodeo forecast

There should be nothing but fine weather for this evening’s show, with temperatures in the low 70s this evening and partly to mostly cloudy skies. Winds will be about 10 mph, so nothing crazy there. Afterwards conditions will be mild, with temperatures in the upper 60s. Lows tonight won’t fall much further, perhaps dropping only into the mid-60s overnight in Houston. Some fog may develop late tonight into Wednesday morning.

Wednesday

This will be a warmer day, with partly to mostly cloudy skies, and highs in the low 80s. Lows will only drop to around 70 degrees.

Thursday

A warm day, with highs in the mid-80s and fairly humid air. Some light rain showers are possible, but the overall chances are fairly low due to a capping inversion. If the cap breaks, we may see some thunderstorms later Thursday or into Friday ahead of a cool front.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

This initial front is likely to move into Houston and more or less stall near the coast. This means we’ll have a fair amount of moisture in the atmosphere and unstable conditions—a good starting point for rain showers. Daily chances are about 50 percent on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, with total accumulations likely of 1 to 2 inches for most of the area. I don’t think this will be a total washout, but if you have plans for the weekend you’ll definitely want to keep tabs on the radar.

In terms of temperatures, we’ll see highs in the 80s on Friday, followed by 70s this weekend for the most part. A secondary push should shove the front offshore some time on Sunday or Sunday night, setting the stage for a cooler start to next week. Lows on Sunday night could drop into the 50s.

Next week

We should begin week in the 60s, with nighttime lows in the 40s or 50s, and some sunny weather. We’ll warm back up some by mid-week, when rain chances resume.

After a wet start to 2024, the Houston region has been largely rain-free for more than a month. Oh, there have been a few exceptions, with scattered shower here and there. But the spring greenery across the metro area has largely been coasting along due the rains received this winter. If you look closely at the ground, you might even see some cracking in the soil.

I am not promising anything, but it does look like the Houston area will see two pretty healthy chances at rainfall this week, first during the Thursday and Friday period, and then again later this weekend as a front pushes through. While rainfall during the weekend is less than ideal, it would not be unwelcome to our burgeoning plants.

Monday

Today is my pick for the nicest day of the week. We’re seeing some very light showers along the coast due to a passing disturbance, but these will clear quickly this morning. After that we’re going to see a mostly sunny day with highs in the low 70s. Winds will be light, from the southeast, at 5 to 10 mph. With dewpoints in the 40s, the air will feel pleasantly dry.

Rodeo forecast

There are no concerns about attending the rodeo this evening, with temperatures in the upper 60s heading into the show and mostly clear skies. Winds will be light. After the bulls and the rock ‘n roll, conditions this evening will be mild. Temperatures will be about 60 degrees after the show, dropping into the mid-50s for most of Houston overnight.

Tuesday

This will be our last day with reasonably dry air, as the onshore flow continues. Look for highs in the upper 70s, with partly to mostly cloudy skies. Lows on Tuesday night will be warmer, dropping into the low- to mid-60s.

Wednesday

Our warming trend continues, with another partly to mostly cloudy day, and highs in the low 80s. Overnight temperatures are unlikely to drop much below 70 degrees, if any.

Thursday and Friday

This part of the forecast remains somewhat uncertain, but in the big picture it appears as though a front will move toward Houston and essentially stall. This will lead to a healthy chance of rainfall to end the work week, with mostly cloudy skies. I don’t anticipate any kind of a washout, but each day should have about a 40 to 50 percent chance of seeing showers. Highs will be around 80 degrees.

Saturday and Sunday

The pattern remains unsettled through the weekend. Temperatures are likely to be in the 70s, with healthy rain chances due to the stalled front and a fairly wet atmosphere. I think rain is a little more likely on Sunday than Saturday as a secondary front pushes through, but I don’t have much confidence in that prediction. All told, we’re likely to get something on the order of 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rain through the weekend. The second front, after moving off the coast, will probably push lows on Sunday night into the 50s.

Next week

Monday and Tuesday look a bit cooler, with highs in the 60s perhaps. After that we’ll see a general warming trend, at least into the 70s, if not the 80s.

Summary: Houston will see a couple of warmer days to end the work week, with the possibility of some showers on Friday, ahead of what should be a stellar weekend with some chilly nights. Sunday, especially, looks really nice with plenty of dry air and light winds. Enjoy!

Thursday

Today will bring partly sunny skies, and this increase in cloud cover should help to limit high temperatures to the upper 70s to 80 degrees. However, in a change from Wednesday—which ended up being a rather pleasant day outside—winds from the southeast will be more pronounced, gusting at times up to 25 mph. This influx of southerly air will pump up humidity levels a bit this afternoon and evening.

Rodeo forecast

We’ll continue to see occasionally gusty winds this evening, but temperatures will remain mild, in the low 70s on the way into the show. I can’t entirely rule out a stray shower this evening before or after the show, but chances are low, likely on the order of 10 percent or so. Lows tonight are only going to drop into the upper 60s, with plenty of humidity. So probably a bad hair night.

Friday

I’m still not particularly confident in the forecast for Friday. The most likely scenario is that a capping inversion holds out, and this prevents the widespread development of thunderstorms in the Houston metro area. In this case, we’d see scattered to widespread light showers during the morning and possibly early afternoon hours, with only slight accumulations. However there is a possibility that the cap breaks, allowing the very moist air at the surface to rise, and yielding the potential for severe weather. I think that chance is low, probably 10 or 20 percent, but it is non-zero. Otherwise, it’s going to be a warm and muggy day to start. Eventually we’re going to see drier air from a front. In terms of timing, I’d guess the front will reach areas such as Katy and The Woodlands on Friday afternoon-ish, and push off the coast by around midnight.

Saturday

We’re likely to start off with cloudy skies on Saturday before the sky starts to clear some during the afternoon hours. Highs will likely peak in the mid- to upper-60s, and we’re going to see breezy conditions during the afternoon hours, with gusts up 25 to perhaps even 30 mph from the north. Lows on Saturday night will likely drop into the upper 40s.

Sunday

This should be a pleasant day with dry air in place, highs in the upper 60s, and partly sunny skies. Lows on Sunday night will again drop into the mid- to upper-40s in Houston with colder conditions inland.

Next week

We’re going to see a warming trend, with days in the 70s, and then possibly about 80 degrees, toward the end of next week. There also is a solid signal for some rain showers on Thursday and Friday ahead of the next front. Perhaps we’ll see 1 to 2 inches of rain? Hard to say at this point.

Summary: After record heat on Tuesday, Houston will cool off slightly today and Thursday. Rain chances return Friday, with the slight potential for some thunderstorms. The weekend looks rather pleasant, with a fair amount of sunshine and highs in the 60s.

Early season heat

Houston fell just short of 90 degrees on Tuesday, with a high temperature topping out at 89 degrees at Bush Intercontinental Airport. This smashed the previous record high for March 5, 84 degrees, which was reached in 1907, 1991, and 1998. The normal high for this time of year is 72 degrees.

If you’re wondering whether this would have been the earliest 90-degree day on record in Houston, had the mercury ticked a single degree higher, the answer is no. The city’s earliest 90-degree day in a calendar year came on February 20, 1986, with a high of 91 degrees.

What does all of this mean for the rest of spring and summer? As it’s a single data point, probably not a whole lot. But with a waning El Nino we already were expecting warmer than normal conditions through the middle of this year. So if nothing else, it’s a preview of what is to come. But fortunately, not just yet.

Wednesday

A few more clouds today should help to cool temperatures a bit, with highs likely in the low- to mid-80s. Winds from the southeast will be light, at 5 to 10 mph. With dewpoints around 60 degrees the air will be modestly humid, but nothing too crazy.

Rodeo forecast

Once again there should be no weather concerns about attending the Houston Livestock Show & Rodeo this evening. Temperatures going in to the show will be in the low 70s with partly cloudy skies. Afterward they’ll be in the upper 60s, so very mild. Rain chances are nil. Overnight lows will drop into the low 60s in Houston, with the possible development of fog near the coast.

Thursday

This will be a mostly cloudy day with a high of around 80 degrees. We’ll also see a more robust southerly wind at the surface, at times gusting to 20 or 25 mph. There is a slight chance of some very light showers later on Thursday afternoon, evening, and overnight, with lows likely only dropping into the upper 60s.

Friday

I have lots of questions about Friday, but only some general answers at this point. In the big picture, an upper-level low pressure system will shove a front toward our area, and this will help provide the impetus for some rain showers. What I think will happen is that beginning early Friday morning and running through the early afternoon, we’ll see some mostly light showers progressing from west to east across the area. I don’t think accumulations will be too great, likely on the order of a few tenths of an inch of rain. With that said, there is a chance that we see some stronger thunderstorms embedded within these showers. Again, I think the likelihood of this happening is low, but it’s non-negligible. Chances are better for thunderstorms to the north of the Houston metro area.

In terms of temperatures we’ll see highs, probably, in the upper 70s. Drier air will arrive with the front during the afternoon or evening hours, pushing overnight lows into the 50s.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend will see the return of mostly sunny skies, for the most part. Saturday will be breezy, as drier and cooler air blows in. Look for highs in the upper 60s, with lows dropping on Saturday night to around 50 degrees in the city, with cooler conditions further inland.

Sunday should be a fine, partly sunny day with highs in the mid- to upper-60s and lighter winds. Lows Sunday night again drop to around 50 degrees.

Next week

Most of next week should bring highs in the 70s, with a mix of clouds and sunshine. It continues to look like we’ll see a decent shot of rainfall during the Thursday and Friday time period ahead of another front, but the contours of all that remain pretty hazy.