Eric Berger

Summary: After a very cold night, Houston will emerge from the icebox over the next couple of days. Another front arrives Thursday night to cool us down for the weekend, when a light freeze will be possible. And after that? It will be warmer next week, with the likelihood of widespread showers. It’s too early to be too concerned about heavy rainfall, but something wet this way comes.

Wednesday

It’s really cold this morning. (Fun fact: Tuesday’s average temperature of 26 degrees was 28 degrees below normal. Alright, maybe that fact wasn’t that much fun). Temperatures across the metro area range from the mid-teens up in the middle of Montgomery County down to the upper 20s right on the coast.

Fortunately, this is as cold as it’s going to get. As soon as the Sun comes over the horizon, we’re going to see temperatures start climbing. Most of the region should be above freezing by 10 or 11 am CT this morning, on our way to highs in the mid-40s with sunny skies. As high pressure shifts to the east, we’ll see winds turning from the north to come from the southeast. As a result, lows tonight will only drop to around 40 degrees, with cloudy skies.

Thursday

This will be the warmest day of the week. Skies will start out cloudy, but we should see lots of sunshine during the afternoon hours. Look for highs to rise into the upper 60s to 70 degrees. Winds will be a bit gusty from the south, but it should feel pleasantly warm outside. But don’t get too attached as a front will come through on Thursday night, bringing an additional shot of colder air. The front’s passage should be a dry one, with lows dropping into the 40s overnight.

Friday

It will be sunny and cold on Friday, with highs perhaps only reaching 50 degrees. It’s also going to be rather windy, with gusts up to 30 mph from the north. Friday night should see a light freeze descend upon Houston again, with a hard freeze possible for far inland areas. Still, this night looks nothing like the cold were presently experiencing.

Saturday

Saturday should start out brisk and sunny. Highs are likely to only reach the mid-40s, and we’ll probably see some clouds developing during the afternoon hours. (If you’re wondering about weather in Baltimore on Saturday afternoon for the Texans game, it looks blustery and cold. Game-time temperatures should be in the low 20s, with gusty winds up to 30 mph. The wind chill will be about 10 degrees. No chance of snow, however. In CJ we trust, right?) Back in Houston, temperatures will again flirt with a freeze on Saturday night, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the urban core of Houston stays above freezing.

Sunday

I expect the sunshine to be largely gone on Sunday, with highs perhaps in the low 50s, give or take. Rain is definitely coming, but at this point I expect it to hold off until Sunday evening or the overnight hours.

Next week

It’s a bit too early for confidence in the details, but we’re going to see some distinct changes next week. Instead of very dry air, our atmosphere will turn more humid, indicative of much more moisture. Temperatures are going up, with daytime highs around 70 degrees, and nights likely somewhere in the 50s. And we’re going to see a series of disturbances move in from the west that will increase our rain chances.

Alongside this favorable setup, there is a pretty strong signal for rain showers during the period of Monday through Thursday across the models we look at. As a very preliminary guess, I’d say we’re probably looking at accumulations on the order of 2 to 6 inches. In the winter months rains pile up more quickly, because the evaporation rate is slower. So we’ll be keeping a tab on the potential for street flooding and other impacts. It’s not something to worry overmuch about right now, but if you have outdoor plans next week, well, good luck.

Summary: Houston faces one more very cold night before we break the back of this Arctic outbreak. Then we’ll warm up for a few days before another front arrives with some slightly less cold air to keep us on the chilly side for the weekend.

Much of the region has warmed above freezing temperatures this afternoon—if only just. Temperatures will peak over the next hour or so before they start dropping by around 4 pm CT. After that we’ll fall quickly this evening as the Sun sets and we see ideal conditions for radiational cooling. Much of the region is likely to be in hard freeze territory, which is to say temperatures below 25 degrees, by midnight. And then, we’re not going to drop much further. I think most of Houston will fall to about the same level they reached on Monday night, basically 17 to 23 degrees across most of our region. The immediate coast, including Galveston, will likely see another light freeze tonight.

The good news—and there is some—is that with light winds we’re not going to see quite the same chill tonight. But it will still be very cold by Houston standards. We’ll also warm up much more quickly on Wednesday than today, with the region rising above freezing by 10 am or so in the morning as the Sun comes up. Highs tomorrow are likely going toward the mid- to upper-40s. So not warm, but warm enough after what we’ve experienced.

Overnight lows on Thursday night look fine, in the 40s.

The vast majority of our area roads are looking good, so there are few concerns there. The electricity grid is in good shape as well. So let’s get through this night and then take a breath before the next front on Thursday night. That will probably bring a light freeze back to Houston by Saturday morning.

With this Arctic air heading to the exits after tonight, we’ll resume our once-a-day posting schedule on Wednesday morning. Thank you, as always, for reading and sharing our work.

Summary: We’re now in the worst part of this Arctic freeze, when we need to be cognizant of the very cold temperatures and wind chills, some remaining icy spots on roadways around Houston, and the Texas electricity grid. Fortunately the end is in sight, even if the next 24 hours look cold.

First, let’s discuss the forecast, then look at roads and the electricity grid.

Tuesday

The temperature at Houston’s official station, Bush Intercontinental Airport, dropped to 19 degrees this morning (After publication, the temperature fell to 18 degrees at 6:50 am). This set a new record low for today. If you’re wondering how this temperature compares to the Valentine’s freeze in 2021, the lowest recorded temperature then was 12 degrees at Bush. (See lows during that freeze for a bunch of Southeast Texas locations here). When you layer on winds of 15 mph and higher gusts on to these temperatures, it feels like single-digit temperatures outside. That’s pretty brutal for Houston.

Winds will remain up this morning, but should subside some this afternoon finally. We’ll also see clearing skies this morning, which should help the temperatures some. Highs today in Houston should climb above freezing for a couple of hours, but their upper limit is likely mid-30s. Areas further inland, such as Katy and The Woodlands, may only briefly touch temperatures above freezing, or may not make it at all.

Low temperatures tonight should be similar to Monday night’s temperatures. The upside is that with significantly reduced winds, it will feel less cold outside.

Wednesday

This will be another sunny day, but some clouds will start to build during the afternoon or evening hours. Temperatures will reach about 50 degrees, with lows only falling into the 40s.

Thursday

This day looks even warmer, if cloudy. Look for highs near 70 degrees. Alas, another cold front arrives later on Thursday to bring another round of rather cold air. Lows on Thursday night will drop to around 40 degrees in Houston, with slightly cooler conditions further inland.

Friday

Winter’s back, baby. Look for highs of around 50 degrees and a cold night. Expect temperatures to drop to around 30 degrees in Houston, so a light freeze is possible for the city. Inland areas may drop into the upper 20s. So maybe just keep your plants covered this week. This surge of colder air won’t be as sharp as the one we’re presently experiencing, but it still will be rather cold by Houston standards. Fortunately there is no precipitation in the forecast during the coldest periods.

Saturday, Sunday, and beyond

The weekend looks cold. Saturday should be mostly sunny with highs in the 40s. A light freeze will be possible for inland areas overnight. Sunday may reach 50 degrees or so with more cloud cover.

After this point we’re going to see a significant pattern change, although the details are still fuzzy. We’ll see warmer weather for awhile, with highs in the 60s or possibly low 70s for most of next week. We’re also going to see the return of some rain showers, possibly a few inches in accumulation starting on Sunday night or Monday. So after the cold, we’re going to get warmer and wet for awhile. I’ve been faithfully placing my orders for days in the 60s and 70s with lots of sunshine this winter, but y’all must be outvoting me.

Roadways

A lot of roads have dried out overnight with the winds. But icy patches remain on elevated freeways and exit ramps and bridges around the region. There are still quite a bit of closures, and travel is inadvisable until later this morning when sunshine and rising temperatures should help to dispatch the ice. You can track icy road locations at Houston Transtar’s website. After today there should be no concerns about winter-related mobility in the Houston area.

Electricity

As of 6:20 am CT, the Texas electricity grid is maintaining between 6,000 and 7,000 MW of excess capacity according to ERCOT. We’re expecting peak demand during the next couple of hours, but given the current capacity it seems that rolling blackouts are unlikely. After this morning, as most of Texas starts to warm up, the grid should have plenty of capacity to cover demand. So, crisis averted.

Summary: Temperatures have trended a bit cooler than expected today, with the freezing line extending all the way down to near the coast. This has caused more problems on area roadways. Elevated highways and bridges, especially, should be treated with caution this evening, and overnight. Tomorrow morning will also feature very cold wind chills, so staying home is advisable, if possible.

Monday night roads

We missed the temperature forecast today by a couple of degrees, but those degrees mattered and led to freezing conditions for most of Houston. With just a couple of hours of daylight left, temperatures are not going up today. Accordingly the freeze line has moved far enough down through the metro are that the light precipitation we’ve been seeing today has caused issues on roadways, particularly bridges and overpasses. This is understandably leading to mobility problems around Houston.

In particular, an accident on icy roads at Interstate 10 and FM 359 in Brookshire, to the west of Katy, shut down the freeway this morning. With the earlier onset of freezing temperatures in the metro area it is clear that drivers need to take care if they’re going to be out and about today and this evening, especially for areas along and inland of US 59/Interstate 69. Travel northwest of Houston, toward College Station; and north toward Dallas is inadvisable (see icy conditions map).

This light precipitation will clear out of the area later this afternoon and evening, but with a hard freeze setting in—and already there over inland areas where there are already some ice accumulations—it will take some time for the ice to sublimate. How long? That will depend on how much ice there is presently on road surfaces, the effectiveness of de-icing by transportation officials, and sunshine on Tuesday morning. The bottom line is that roads will be potentially hazardous for the rest of today, likely overnight, and possibly into Tuesday morning.

Monday night temperatures

We should see cloud cover for most of tonight, which will help keep temperatures from bottoming out too hard. Winds will be another factor. Paradoxically, winds elevate air temperatures through mixing; but make apparent temperatures feel colder. Accordingly, lows tonight will drop roughly into the mid-20s in the urban core of Houston, with colder conditions expected for outlying areas.

When you tack on gusty winds, up to 20 or 25 mph through the night and into Tuesday morning, it’s going to easily feel like the teens out there. That is not cold to be easily dismissed, and it’s understandable that some school districts have already canceled schools due to the combination of potentially icy roads and very cold wind chills.

Power conservation

ERCOT has issued another call for electricity conservation on Tuesday morning, during the hours of 6 am to 9 am, due to cold temperatures statewide and surging power demand. The current forecast for electricity shows demand forecast to be higher than supplies during this time frame, so it is possible that we see some rolling blackouts for a couple of hours. It’s something we’ll all be monitoring early tomorrow morning, I am sure.

Tuesday and Tuesday night

At some point on Tuesday morning the skies will clear, and we’re going to see the sunshine. This should help sublimate any remaining ice on the roads in the Houston metro area, even though air temperatures are likely to remain below freezing during the morning hours. Parts of the city near downtown and closer to the coast will briefly climb above freezing on Tuesday. But we’ll cool down quickly as winds die down, and with clear skies overnight. Expect low temperatures to be a couple of degrees colder than Monday night.

By Wednesday morning we’ll be warming nicely, with sunny skies, to daytime highs of about 50 degrees.

A message from Reliant

We’re grateful for Eric and Matt’s dedication to keeping us informed during this wintery weather. When it comes to energy usage during extreme weather, Reliant also wants to help Texans be prepared. With temperatures dipping, Texans may crank up their heaters to stay warm and because many have electric heaters, freezing temperatures could result in increased energy usage and costs. Heating the home can use up to five times more electricity in one hour than the AC does in the summer.

Through a few simple actions, Reliant is arming Space City Weather readers (regardless of their electricity provider) with tips to help save energy while staying warm:

• Check your thermostat. If you have electric heat in your home, keeping your thermostat around 68 degrees can help you save energy. For every degree above that, you can typically expect a 3-5% increase in heating costs.
• Let the sun in. When the sun is shining, open blinds and shades during the day to naturally warm your home. Close them at night to help block out the chill.
• Close heat escape routes. Keep the chimney damper closed when not in use and be mindful of how often you’re opening entry doors and using bathroom or utility room ventilation fans, as heat can escape through these outlets. 
• Set your ceiling fan to rotateclockwise. This helps force warm air down from the ceiling into the room to create a more comfortable environment. 

For more tips on staying warm while managing your energy usage, visit Reliant.com/WinterTips.