Eric Berger

Summary: A front will blow through Houston this morning to bring a surge of much drier air into the region. This will result in a couple of cooler nights. We’ll also see the return of some light rain showers on Thursday night, but the weekend should yield some sunshine.

Wednesday

A cold front will push into Houston this morning to displace the muggy air mass overhead. Temperatures will drop only a few degrees initially, but dewpoints will fall off a cliff. Skies will remain mostly cloudy. We should see wind gusts jump up above 30 mph for a few hours this afternoon as this drier air blows in from the north. In short, more winter-like weather will come raging back into Houston for a little while.

Rodeo forecast

Winds will begin slackening late this afternoon and evening, but I still expect gusts above 20 to 25 mph as you’re heading into the rodeo. Temperatures before the show will be in the 60s, dropping into the 50s after the show. With the breeze, it will definitely feel a bit chilly outside. Overnight lows will eventually drop to around 50 degrees by Thursday morning, with cooler conditions for outlying areas.

Thursday

This will be the one cold day this week. I’m not sure highs will get out of the 50s, with mostly cloudy skies. Unlike a lot of fronts we see in Houston, this one is not going to be followed by a lot of sunshine. Rather, pretty quickly the flow is going to turn northeasterly, and in concert with some weak atmospheric disturbances it’s possible that we see some very light showers later on Thursday afternoon or Thursday night. into Friday morning. Lows should drop to around 50 overnight.

Friday

This will be a transition day back to warmer weather. After light showers end during the morning hours we should actually see a bit of sunshine later in the day, with highs in the upper 60s to 70 degrees. Winds will be fairly light, from the northeast. With a warmer flow in place, lows on Friday night likely will only drop into the low 60s.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend looks fine. We should see partly sunny skies and highs in the upper 70s to 80 degrees. Humidity levels will be moderate, but not oppressive. Overnight temperatures will be mild. I can’t entirely rule out a chance of showers later on Sunday or Sunday evening, but I think these will hold off until Monday.

Next week

Next week’s forecast is filled with a whole lot of “I don’t know.” The uncertainty is due to the approach of a cold front by around Tuesday-ish, and a lack of clarity on whether it pushes all the way through Houston. The bottom line is that I do think we’ll see elevated rain chances on Monday and Tuesday, with accumulations of perhaps half an inch, give or take. But as for temperatures, who knows. We’ll probably be somewhere in the 70s during the daytime, but the nights will depend on the progression of the front.

Summary: Houston will see one more warm day before a front arrives on Wednesday to cool us down for a couple of days. The first half of the weekend looks rather pleasant, but we’re keeping our eye on the potential for the return of some decent rainfall next week.

Before the forecast, two programming notes. First of all, if you missed it, we did our first monthly Q&A feature on Monday, and we hope to do these regularly going forward. Secondly, the Houston Livestock Show and Rodeo begins today, and it’s an iconic event for our region attended by more than 2 million people. Accordingly, we’re going to offer daily forecasts, brought to you by our sponsor Reliant. we’ll share what you need to know about the expected weather before and after the rodeo and concert every day. Additionally, make sure to scroll to the bottom of this post and read Reliant’s fun Rodeo experiences (I’m definitely stopping by the Space City Cowboy photo op!)

Tuesday

Today will be another warm one, with highs likely topping out in the low 80s across much of the region. There may be a bit more sunshine than on Monday, but I still expect more clouds than not. Winds will be noticeable from the south, gusting up to 30 mph at times.

Rodeo forecast

If you’re heading out to the Blake Shelton concert this evening, hold on to your hat. Actually, the winds should be backing off a little bit later this evening and afternoon, but I just wanted to say ‘hold on to your hat.’ Temperatures will be mild this evening, perhaps about 70 degrees, with moderate humidity. Expect cloudy skies. Temperatures will only be a few degrees cooler after the show, heading down to overnight lows in the mid-60s tonight. Despite the clouds I don’t expect any rain showers today or tonight.

Wednesday

After a warm night a cold front will sweep through Houston on Wednesday morning, and the change will be pretty immediate. I’d expect the front to be near areas like Katy and The Woodlands around sunrise or an hour or two after, and be off the coast by or before noon. In the wake of the front we’ll see gusty northerly winds, mostly cloudy skies, and temperatures in the 60s with much drier air. Lows on Wednesday night will drop down to around 50 degrees in Houston.

Thursday

Here the brief spell of ‘winter’ I mentioned in the post headline. Skies will be cloudy on Thursday, with highs likely only peaking in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Winds will slow down. The air is going to be rather dry, with low dewpoints. However by later Thursday afternoon we’ll see winds turn to come from the south, and this will mark the beginning of an onshore flow. Lows on Thursday night will drop into the low 50s for most away from the coast.

Friday

We’ll see some decent rain chances late Thursday night into Friday morning, but accumulations look rather slight, likely in the hundredths of an inch. Skies, otherwise, will be mostly cloudy with highs in the low- to mid-70s. Lows on Friday night will probably drop down to around 60 degrees.

Saturday and Sunday

The first half of the weekend looks pretty good for outdoor plans. We’ll see highs of around 80 degrees with partly sunny skies. Rain chances look to be close to nil. Lows Saturday night will be mild, in the low 60s.

Sunday will bring more clouds, and a slight chance of rain. Still, anything that falls should be very light. Highs will again be around 80 degrees.

Next week

The forecast for next week is somewhat in flux. However, in general, we can expect warm conditions on Monday and probably Tuesday. At some point a front is going to move toward our area and help generate conditions for rainfall. This will probably our best chance at some decent accumulations of rainfall in a while. This front will be followed by some cooler weather for a couple of days. So, basically, more spring is on the way.

A message from Reliant

This isn’t our first rodeo, and, at Reliant, we’re here for a rootin’ tootin’ time at the Houston Livestock Show and Rodeo, now open today through March 17. Here are a few fun places to stop by: 

• Saddle up in Space City at Reliant’s new photo op for Rodeo fans to enjoy, located in the lobby of NRG Center at Hall C. A tip of the cap to Houston’s ‘Space City’ roots, grab your partner and take a trip to the moon in this interactive photo op that makes you and your posse feel like a Space City Cowboy.  
• Stop by the Reliant Ranch in NRG Plaza for an interactive experience for rodeo-goers of all ages. Two step on over to enjoy festive games like Get Your Ducks in a Row-deo, Boot Toss, Ring Toss, and a Souvenir Penny Press. And don’t forget to say howdy to our pal Hugo, Reliant’s friendly brand ambassador! 
• Hold your horses, we can’t forget the iconic Reliant Big Boot! Standing at 25-feet-tall, this staple of the Rodeo provides visitors with another great Instagram-worthy moment. Grab the whole crew and giddy on up before you head to the concert, carnival, or let’s face it… the Champion Wine Garden! 
• While you’re busy snapping pics as a Space City Cowboy or over at the Reliant Big Boot, we also have you covered with free charging stations throughout NRG Park, so you can stay powered up and present! With a valid email and credit card ($1 hold), rodeo-goers can borrow a power pack and return them at any charging station once they are done. 

See y’all at the Rodeo!  

Summary: Houston will see rather warm, spring-like weather for a couple of days before a front arrives on Wednesday to cool the region down. The weekend looks pleasant again, with highs in the upper 70s to 80 degrees. Some slight rain chances do return Friday, but overall accumulations look very light. Don’t expect much sunshine this week.

Texas heat

Good morning. Houston will see moderately warm weather this week, but if we pull back across Texas some northern parts of the state are going to see very warm temperatures in the low 90s. The high temperature today in Dallas, for example, is 93 degrees. This statewide heat is being driven by several factors, including drier air over the northern part of the state, a warm southwesterly flow, and a warm air mass (for February) over much of the continental United States. A front will arrive mid-week to cool the state off.

Before jumping into the forecast I want to share a couple of programming notes. Check back at 10 am this morning for a new feature, a monthly Q&A post in which Matt and I answer your questions. Also, you can see our final sponsorship video with Reliant here, in which talk with Elizabeth Killinger about what not having to worry about ‘clicks’ means for Space City Weather.

Monday

Houston experienced its first 80-degree weather of 2024 this past weekend, with highs of 80 and 82 degrees, respectively, on Saturday and Sunday. We’ll likely be there again today and Tuesday before a front arrives on Wednesday. Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy today, with highs in the low 80s. Winds will be from the southwest at 10 to 15 mph. Lows on Monday night will drop into the mid- to upper-60s with cloudy skies. Winds will pick up some from the south overnight.

Tuesday

This will be another warm day, with a decent amount of humidity as dewpoints push into the mid-60s. Highs will again be in the low 80s. Southerly winds become particularly notable midday, perhaps gusting up to about 30 mph. Expect mostly cloudy skies. Lows Tuesday night will likely only drop into the upper 60s.

Wednesday

Change arrives on Wednesday when a front blows into Houston, likely during the mid-morning hours. Highs will likely peak ahead of the front, in the 70s, before dropping during the afternoon hours. Winds on Wednesday afternoon and evening will be fairly strong, from the north, gusting to about 30 mph. At this point I think the front will bring little to no rain with it. Low temperatures on Wednesday night will drop to about 50 degrees, with cooler conditions inland.

Thursday

This day will be mostly cloudy and cooler, with highs of about 60 degrees. Winds will be much less than on Wednesday, with overnight lows about the same, dropping to around 50 degrees or a bit lower in Houston.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

We’ll see two trends this weekend. The first is gradually warming temperatures, from 70 degrees on Friday to the upper 70s to 80 degrees this weekend. We’ll also see the return of some slight rain chances beginning later on Thursday or Thursday night and lasting through Sunday. When I say light, I mean light. Although the weekend will see about a 20 percent chance of rain each day, overall accumulations are expected to be measured in hundredths of an inch. If you’re looking for some sunshine, Saturday afternoon probably has the best chance of it this weekend, but even then I’m not promising anything.

Next week

Monday should be warm again before some sort of front arrives on Tuesday. The details are still fuzzy, but it does appear as though this next front will bring with it a slightly better chance of rain. We shall see.

Summary: If you like the forecast to be steady eddy, and our weather mild, you’re in luck. The outlook for the next week or so, at least, looks pleasant with a series of weak fronts keeping temperatures from getting too warm or the air too humid. Rain chances are near zero at least until we get toward the end of next week.

I also want to give a huge shout-out to Houston-based Intuitive Machines. There are some great people there, and last night they successfully landed the first US-made spacecraft on the Moon in 52 years. This is also the first privately built vehicle to ever make a soft landing on the Moon. It’s a huge achievement that all of us in Space City can be proud of. As a space nerd I was so excited last night I could hardly fall asleep. If you’re interested, I wrote about the nail-biting landing, which faced last-minute challenges, here.

Friday

A modest front arrived on Thursday night to drag some cooler and drier weather in to the Houston region. As a result, we have some pleasant weather ahead this weekend. Skies will be sunny today, with high temperatures in the upper 70s. Winds will be noticeable, out of the north, gusting to perhaps 20 or 25 mph this afternoon. They should ease off this evening, and we’ll see lows drop down to around 50 degrees tonight.

Saturday

The first half of the weekend should be stunning. Highs will reach the upper 70s, with a few areas perhaps briefly touching 80 degrees. The air will be plenty dry, with light winds. Lows on Saturday night will again drop into the low 50s to 50 degrees in Houston, with cooler conditions for outlying areas.

Sunday

By Saturday night we’ll see the onshore flow starting to work its way into Houston, so on Sunday we’ll see slightly more humid air. More noticeable, perhaps, will be a fairly robust southerly breeze, at 15 mph with gusts to 20 mph or higher. Skies will still be sunny, with highs in the upper 70s. With the warmer overall flow, lows on Sunday night will only drop to around 60 degrees in Houston.

First half of next week

We’ll see warmer and breezier weather next week with highs generally around 80 degrees and somewhat humid air as dewpoints push into the low-60s. Skies will still be at least somewhat sunny on Monday, but they’ll turn cloudier on Tuesday and Wednesday. At some point, probably on Wednesday, another modestly strong front will arrive to bring us some cooler and drier air.

Second half of next week

Highs will likely drop into the low 70s, and lows into the 50s, after the front. This somewhat cooler weather could persist into the weekend, but at that point the forecast starts to turn a bit fuzzy. In terms of rainfall potential, the models are hinting that some showers may return into the forecast beginning next Thursday or Friday, but the signal is far from overwhelming. We should know more on Monday. Speaking of which, have a wonderful weekend, everyone. We don’t get all that many in Space City like this.