Eric Berger

In brief: This tropical update has been cross-posted from our companion site The Eyewall. Although we do not yet have major concerns about direct impacts to Texas from Beryl, it is not out of the question that the storm could get into the Gulf of Mexico this coming weekend. Since we have been receiving a lot of questions about Beryl, here’s what we know right now.

Overview

As of late morning on Sunday, the tropical Atlantic remains very active for the end of June. In addition to Beryl, there are a couple of systems the National Hurricane Center is monitoring for potential development. We’ll comment on those at the end of this post, but our primary focus today is the rapidly developing Beryl, which as of 10:35 am CT is a dangerous Category 4 hurricane.

Hurricane Beryl this week

Thanks to warm seas, the system has intensified during the last 24 hours from a 50-mph tropical storm into a powerful 130-mph hurricane as it nears the Windward Islands. It should then cross these islands on Monday and move into the Caribbean Sea. The storm will likely remain sufficiently south of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola to preclude serious damage there, but it could threaten Jamaica on Wednesday and Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula toward the end of the week. After that? Movement into the Gulf of Mexico is possible, but after this point our confidence starts to decrease.

In terms of intensity, additional strengthening of Beryl is likely over the next 24 hours or so as Beryl traverses very warm seas and is encountering relatively little wind shear. The National Hurricane Center forecasts a peak strength of 140 mph sustained winds by Monday morning, when the storm passes near islands including Grenada, Barbados, St. Lucia, and Martinique. These locations should prepare for the most intense wind and surge impacts beginning after midnight tonight, and lasting through at least Monday morning. Localized rain totals of 6 to 12 inches are possible. This is a very serious situation, and residents should prepare accordingly.

As it moves into the Caribbean Sea on Monday and Tuesday, Beryl should encounter moderately stronger wind shear, and this probably will cause some weakening. But the jury is very much out on how much weakening will occur before Beryl approaches Jamaica on Wednesday. The National Hurricane Center forecasts the system having sustained winds of 120 mph at that time, but this is just a reasonable guess. By Thursday night or Friday, as the center approaches Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, it’s likely that Beryl will weaken a little bit further. It will still likely bring hurricane-force winds to these locations sometime between late Thursday night and Friday night, in addition to heavy rainfall.

Hurricane Beryl this weekend

Our certainty about Beryl’s track begins to fade by the weekend. From now through Friday, a fairly strong high pressure system should continue to push the storm westward. Over the weekend and into early next week, it is possible this ridge continues to steer Beryl westward into the Bay of Campeche. (It is not clear how much interaction with the Yucatan would disrupt Beryl’s circulation, but some weakening is virtually certain). In this scenario, Beryl is likely to move across the southern Gulf of Mexico and plow into the east coast of the Mexican mainland, similar to Tropical Storm Alberto about 10 days ago.

However, there is also the possibility that this ridge weakens, somewhat. At this point, this remains a lesser likelihood when we look at the global models. Still, there is a non-zero chance that Beryl turns northwestward after encountering the Yucatan Peninsula. In such a scenario a tropical system—be it a tropical storm or hurricane—could come to the Texas or even Louisiana coast late next weekend. I understand that everyone would like to have absolute answers about whether this will happen, but we just don’t have that kind of certainty right now.

Bottom line: Direct Texas impacts are within the realm of probability from Beryl, but the odds remain fairly low. We can see this distribution of possibilities when we look at the “super ensemble” track of forecasts for Beryl, which favors the ridge holding strong. We should know more about this part of Beryl’s forecast by Monday or Tuesday, and of course we’ll remain on top of that.

Invest 94L

There is still a short window for this tropical disturbance over the southern Gulf of Mexico to develop on Sunday before it likely moves inland into Mexico on Monday. The primary threat from Invest 94L is heavy rains in southern Mexico and Central America, which saw similar impacts from Alberto just 10 days ago. Regardless of whether this system develops further or not, the effects will be the same. There will be no impacts for Texas.

Invest 96L

The third area of tropical interest is trailing Hurricane Beryl by a few days as it traverses the open Atlantic Ocean. The National Hurricane Center gives this system a 70 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm during the next week, and at this point it seems likely to impact the Windwards Islands in a similar location. This could happen as soon as Wednesday, and could deliver an awful second whammy.

However, I have some questions about how much Beryl will perturb the ocean and atmosphere, and this could help to mitigate the strengthening of this tropical disturbance as it nears the Caribbean Sea in a couple of days. We will be keeping a close eye on the system, in any case.

In brief: We’ll have a couple of more afternoons where some scattered showers will be likely, bringing a bit of welcome rain and briefly cooler temperatures. By this weekend we’ll be pushing the upper 90s, with the chance of hitting 100 degrees for the first time this year in Houston. Also, skies will be hazy due to Saharan dust.

Thursday

Today will have a similar setup to Wednesday, when we saw the development of some scattered thunderstorms across central and some southern parts of the region (mostly) during the afternoon hours. Again we’ll be on the periphery of high pressure, allowing for the seabreeze and daytime heating to do some work.

Rain chances this afternoon are probably about 30 percent, and some areas could see as much as half an inch of rain beneath stronger thunderstorms. Highs will depend on the extent of showers in your locality, but I still expect much of the region to get up into the mid-90s. Winds will be very light, from the southeast at maybe 5 mph. Lows tonight will only drop to about 80 degrees.

Friday

A similar day to Thursday, although perhaps with slightly less rain coverage. Highs again will push into the mid-90s for the most part, with light southerly winds.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend looks very warm as high pressure becomes a little bit more dominant. Rain chances will go down, close to zero percent on Saturday, and maybe 20 percent or so on Sunday. Daytime highs on Saturday will be in the mid- to upper-90s, and then on Sunday some locations could reach 100 degrees for the first time this year. Please take heat precautions if you’re going to be outside during the middle of the day this weekend.

In addition, we’ll see the influx of Saharan dust, which will produce hazy conditions over the Houston region this weekend. For most people this won’t have significant effects, but it could make sunsets more brilliant.

Next week

Monday will be very hot, bringing the region another chance to hit 100 degrees. There also will be a limited chance of rain showers, perhaps 20 percent. Most of next week should be similar, although slightly cooler. Expect highs in the mid- to upper-90s for the most part, with isolated to scattered showers during the afternoon hours along the seabreeze.

Atlantic tropics

After a (very) brief lull following Tropical Storm Alberto, the Atlantic tropics are starting to come to life. The deep Atlantic seems to be heating up earlier than normal, likely due to the excessively warm temperatures in the main development region of the ocean. We’re starting to see a more active African “wave train,” which is the source of the majority of hurricanes during the Atlantic season. Typically this does not get going for at least another month, but here we are.

There are a couple of active systems, but the one to watch is the trailing disturbance, shown in red on the map above, known as “Invest 95L.” (Invest simply stands for “area of investigation”). We’ll be providing deeper coverage of this system on The Eyewall, but what I would say right now is that there’s a low-end chance this disturbance eventually reaches the Gulf of Mexico in about 10 days time. Really, it’s not something I’d be too concerned about. But we’re keeping an eye on it, just in case.

In brief: Although high pressure is largely dominant, Houston will have a couple of chances to see some spotty thunderstorms today and tonight. Mostly, however, we’re going to see continued hot and sunny weather, with temperatures in the mid- to upper-90s and plenty of humidity. That forecast holds for as far as the eye can see.

Monthly Q&A

Be sure and check back on the site later this morning, as we’ll be releasing our monthly Q&A at 10 am CT, in which Matt and I answer questions submitted by readers. There are some fun ones this month!

Wednesday

Skies will be mostly sunny today, with highs in the mid- to upper-90s. Generally, the further inland you live, the warmer the temperatures will be. Winds will remain light, from the south at just 5 mph. The real intrigue today and tonight is rain chances. They’re not high, but we could see some briefly lived thunderstorms.

The first opportunity comes during the mid-afternoon hours, as daytime heating combines with the seabreeze to potentially spark some showers and thunderstorms in central Houston, or perhaps closer to the coast. These should be fairly isolated and short-lived. There is also a chance of some storms along a dying front moving south into the region this evening or tonight. Frankly, our model guidance is all over the place, so we could see anything from nothing (probably most likely) to a fairly broad line of storms moving southward late tonight or early Thursday (far less likely). In any case, something to be aware of.

Thursday

Expect continued hot and muggy weather. We could see some additional, isolated showers and thunderstorms due to daytime heating. Overall rain chances are probably only about 10 or 20 percent, however.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

Expect more hot weather, with highs in the mid- to upper-90s for the area and plenty of humidity. We’ll continue to see low, but not non-existent rain chances through the weekend as daytime heating sparks seabreeze showers. These probably will be a bit more likely for areas along and south of Interstate 10. But for the most part, it’s just going to be sunshine and heat. We may also see some haze, as a plume of Saharan dust pushes into the area over the weekend.

Next week

To be honest, next week doesn’t look much different from this week, weather-wise. We’ll continue to be very hot, but not extremely so for Houston in the summertime.

In brief: Houston is fairly well locked into a summertime pattern for the foreseeable future, with high temperatures in the mid- to upper-90s. The only real question each day is the extent to which we see some afternoon showers and thunderstorms develop. Overall chances are low each day, in the 10 to 30 percent range, but that’s better than nothing. Wednesday afternoon may be interesting.

Tuesday

We have reached the point of summer in Houston where not much changes. High pressure has developed over much of the southern United States, and for us that means mostly sunny skies and hot temperatures. However, for much of the forecast period Houston will lie along the periphery of this high, so it means our rain chances each are not zero. (For example, as I write this, some spotty showers have developed near Lake Jackson in southern Brazoria County).

For today, we’ll see mostly sunny skies with highs in the mid-90s for much of Houston. Some inland areas will see upper 90s. Winds will be light, generally from the south at 5 to 10 mph. We’ll see some additional showers this afternoon, but overall chances are probably only 10 to 20 percent. Low temperatures tonight will drop to around 80 degrees.

Wednesday

This will be another hot and mostly sunny day. However, some of our model guidance indicates at a bit of a disturbance may work its way southward across the region, bringing a slightly better chance of showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday afternoon or evening. So let’s peg rain chances a little bit higher, perhaps 30 percent. We’ll see. Nights remain warm and sultry.

Thursday, Friday, and Saturday

Expect hot and mostly sunny weather, with highs in the mid- to upper-90s. Rain chances each day will be about 20 percent. Anything that develops is likely to do so during the afternoon hours, along the seabreeze. Skies may also appear hazy as we see an influx of Saharan dust—this would have the benefit of making for some nice sunsets.

Sunday and beyond

Rain chances improve a bit by Sunday and Monday, with perhaps a bit wider coverage of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. This is no guarantee, however, as high pressure is lurking. Mostly I just anticipate hot conditions, with highs in the upper-90s for much of the area away from the coast. July is going to do July things in Houston. My way too early forecast for the July Fourth holiday is hot and sunny, with partly clear skies for fireworks.