Eric Berger

Good morning. We finally have clarity on the forecast for the Christmas holiday, and the short version is that this weekend looks messy, but Christmas Day should be partly sunny, dry, and seasonal with highs in the 60s. Before that, however, we’re likely to see a wet weekend with widespread accumulations of 1 to 3 inches, and even higher isolated totals.

Thursday

Temperatures have only fallen to 60 degrees this morning, and this will probably be the ‘coldest’ we get until after the next front rolls through on Christmas Eve. This will also be the last day we can be reasonably confident that it won’t rain until Christmas Day. Skies will be mostly cloudy, however, with highs in the upper 60s to 70 degrees. Winds will be out of the east at around 10 mph, with higher gusts. I can’t entirely rule out some very light showers today, but most of us should stay dry. That could change this evening, and during the overnight hours, when some light, misty rain will be a bit more likely. Lows drop to around 60 degrees again in Houston, with cooler conditions further inland.

Friday and Saturday

These will be similar days, with highs of around 70 degrees, and decently high humidity. Both days will be cloudy with rain chances on the order of 50 to 70 percent. The overall dynamics for both days don’t favor severe weather, so we’re likely looking at some on-and-off, mostly light to moderate rain showers. If you’re going to be out and about, conditions should be fine, just know there may well be some nuisance showers.

Christmas Eve

The story is a little bit different for Sunday. As a front approaches we’re going to see atmospheric lift, which spells R-A-I-N given the ample moisture available in the atmosphere. Pretty much everyone is going to get some rain on Sunday, but the amounts will be variable, with some areas perhaps getting 0.5 to 1 inch, and others 3 to 5 inches. I think the latter totals will be fairly isolated, but the setup does favor some heavy rainfall.

Fortunately the conditions won’t be quite right for severe weather, so while there may be some thunderstorms, the odds of them turning intense—with damaging hail and winds—is fairly low. Highs on Christmas Eve will be about 70 degrees. I’m thinking we’ll see a frontal passage at some point during the evening hours, or so, with drier air moving in overnight behind the front. Once the front pushes in you can be pretty confident the rain showers are over.

Christmas Day

Depending on when the front goes through, most of us should be waking up to temperatures in the 50s, with clearing skies. Northerly winds will be gusting to about 20 mph, but it doesn’t look like one of those howling, wild blue norther fronts. Highs will be seasonable, in the mid-60s. Lows on Christmas night will drop into the 40s. So all in all, it should be a pleasant Christmas Day weather-wise. It’s just that getting there that is going to be kind of messy.

Next week

At this point it looks as though we’re going to remain in the 60s for all of next week, with cool nights in the 40s. Skies will be sunny, and winds reasonably light. If you’ve been pining for a stretch of winter, you’re in luck!

Good morning. Houston’s weather will now warm up through the weekend, with some healthy rain chances, before a cold front moves through late on Christmas Eve, or early on Christmas morning. This should bring cooler and drier weather into Houston for the holiday, and most of the week leading up to New Year’s Day.

Before jumping into the forecast I wanted to share a photo from a reader, Jaime Aguilar, who lives near spring. Jaime took this photo on Tuesday morning while out for a walk. It shows a ‘fallstreak hole,’ a fairly rare meteorological phenomenon that occurs when water in clouds suddenly freeze, and falls. This is sometimes induced by a passing airplane. I thought others might have seen this, so I wanted to explain the phenomenon.

Wednesday

Temperatures are starting out in the 50s this morning, and they’ll rise to about 70 degrees today. We’ll see a mix of sunshine and clouds, as highs push up to about 70 degrees. Winds will be a bit more prominent, out of the east at 10 mph, with gusts up to about 20 mph. Lows tonight will only drop into the upper 50s in Houston.

Thursday

Thursday will be a similar day, albeit with a few more clouds. Lows on Thursday night will be a few degrees warmer than Wednesday night, and we may see a few scattered, light showers develop after midnight.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

The weekend will see generally cloudy skies, with a decent shot of humidity, and highs of around 70 degrees or a tick warmer. Rain showers over the weekend will be on-and-off again affairs. Sunday—Christmas Eve—should be the most dynamic day in terms of rainfall and thunderstorm potential as a front approaches the region. I don’t think things are going to get too extreme, as most of the region will likely see 1 to 3 inches of rain through the weekend, but it could be messy at times. Something to consider if you have plans for Christmas Eve.

Christmas Day

The good news is that, increasingly, it looks like the front will be pushed through Houston by Monday morning. This will reduce rain chances on the holiday to about 10 or 20 percent. I’d expect highs to reach the upper 60s with partly to mostly cloudy skies. Lows on Monday night will likely drop into the upper 40s as cooler and drier air moves in during the daytime.

Next week

Most of next week looks fairly pleasant and winter-like. Most probably we’re looking at days in the 60s, with lows in the 40s, and partly to mostly sunny skies.

Good morning. Houston will have a couple of more sunny days before the forecast turns messy this weekend, with a fair bit of rainfall across the holiday weekend. As for the Christmas Day forecast, unfortunately that’s still a stocking stuffed full of uncertainty.

Tuesday

Today should be a fine winter’s day, with highs in the low- to mid-60s, and partly sunny skies. Our air is starting out rather dry, but with light easterly to southeasterly winds we’re going to see humidity levels start to rebound. We’re still going to see one more night on the cool side, with lows generally dropping into the upper 40s in Houston, with cooler conditions for outlying areas, before milder conditions arrive for the rest of the week.

Wednesday

This will probably be the last day we see a lot of sunshine for awhile. Highs will reach about 70 degrees, with southeasterly winds that may, at times, gust up to 20 mph. Lows on Wednesday night will be a warmer, perhaps 10 degrees higher than Tuesday night.

Thursday

Skies will be clouding up on Thursday in response to increasing atmospheric moisture levels. But the overall dynamics in the atmosphere won’t favor rising air, so I don’t expect any significant rain showers yet. Look for highs of about 70 degrees, with lows on Thursday night dropping only to around 60 degrees in Houston. Some rain chances may start to creep in on Thursday night, we’ll see.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

Conditions turn unsettled for the weekend. We’re confident that highs will be in the vicinity of 70 degrees, lows around 60, and skies will be mostly cloudy. At this point it looks like there will be a healthy chance of rain each day, perhaps 60 to 70 percent. It’s not going to rain continuously, but there should be some on-again, off-again type showers, with perhaps a few thunderstorms. (The overall setup does not particularly favor severe weather, however). Overall rain accumulations during this period are likely to be 1 to 3 inches.

Christmas Day

I don’t know!

Like, I’m really sorry. But the models (and humble forecasters) are still struggling with the timing of a Pacific cold front. This is important because the front is likely to generate the most favorable conditions for thunderstorms. If this all passes on Sunday night, then Christmas Day could see clearing and cooler weather. But there is absolutely no consensus for this right now, and we could very well end up with a fairly messy Christmas Day with some showers. Temperatures and humidity, too, are going to be dependent on the front. This is all pretty worthless, I know. It’s like Space City Weather is giving you a fruit cake for the holidays this year.

Next week

At some point next week—Monday morning, Monday night?, Tuesday?—the front will be well and truly passed, and our weather should cool down and settle down. We’re likely talking mostly sunny days, highs in the upper 50s or 60s, and lows in the 40s. This cooler pattern is likely to hold out for the remainder of 2023.

Holiday travel

We realize that not everyone is going to hang around Houston for the holidays. With that in mind, Matt has written a US travel guide over on The Eyewall. Of note are the potential for flooding in California this week, and storms in the Rockies, Plains, and Mississippi Valley on Christmas Eve.

Good morning. Houston will see cool temperatures and mostly sunny skies to start this week, but then we’ll see a distinct warming trend for the second half of the week and the weekend. As moisture levels rise the forecast will bring increasing rain chances. As for what all this means for Christmas Day, well, it’s going to depend on the timing of the next front. Things could get a bit messy if the front moves through next Monday, on Christmas Day itself.

Monday

We’re starting out chilly, and generally in the 40s, this morning. It’s going to be a bright and sunny day, with highs in the upper 60s to nearly 70 degrees. Winds will be mostly light, from the north, at 5 to 10 mph. Really, it should be a very fine day for any outdoor activities. We’ll see one more cold night tonight, with temperatures dropping into the low 40s for much of the region tonight, with a few outlying areas possibly touching the upper 30s.

Tuesday

With a bit of a reinforcing shot of cooler air on Monday night, temperatures on Tuesday should trend a bit cooler. We’re looking at highs, perhaps, in the low 60s with partly to mostly sunny skies. However, changes will be afoot in the atmosphere as the high pressure that has brought us clear and colder weather pushes off to the east. This will initially result in an easterly flow at the surface, and allow for temperatures to fall to around 50 degrees on Tuesday night.

Wednesday and Thursday

These will be partly sunny days with high temperatures of around 70 degrees. The air will feel a bit more humid as an easterly to southeasterly flow continues. Winds may at times gust to around 20 mph. Nights will be more mild, generally falling to about 60 degrees.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

The weather looks pretty meh for the weekend ahead of Christmas Day. We’re talking highs in the low 70s, cloudy skies, fairly humid air, and warm nights only falling to around 60 degrees. Oh, and the rain chances. As atmospheric moisture levels ramp up we’ll see a healthy chance of showers and thunderstorms throughout the three day period, on and off. Much of the area could pick up 1 to 2 inches of rain during the time from Friday through Sunday, but that forecast is written in pencil for now.

Christmas Day and beyond

At some point the showers will end, as a cold front moves through and brings drier air into the region. But the timing of this front is still far from certain. It could be on the morning of Christmas Day. It could be morning on the day after Christmas. I don’t know, and I don’t really feel particularly confident at this time. For now I’m going to predict highs in the 60s on Christmas Day with a healthy chance of showers. There may even be some thunderstorms if the frontal passage is a messy one.

I know you’d like to have some more clarity than that. This forecast is a real lump of coal in your stocking. But hey, Santa Claus is the miracle worker not me. After the front moves through, next week does look quite a bit colder, with highs in the 50s or possibly 60s, and nights perhaps in the 30s and 40s. We’ll see.

Last call for holiday lights

If you like to enjoy festive holiday activities while it feels like a winter wonderland in Texas, the next few days are a good time to plan those visits before we experience a warmer period around Christmas Day. Our longtime partner, Reliant, is here to help Houstonians join in the holiday spirit with two fun attractions!

Galaxy Lights, presented by Reliant (runs through January 7)

What better way to get into the spirit in Space City than with Galaxy Lights, presented by Reliant? The only space-themed light show around at Space Center Houston is one of the most technologically advanced light displays in the state, providing Houstonians with an interactive, out-of-this-world experience! Visitors can experience a 200-foot LED light tunnel, two high-tech kinetic light shows, massive models of each planet, and a showing of the original film “Holidays in Space.” Learn more and purchase tickets here.

Radiant Nature, presented by Reliant (runs through February 25)

New to the Houston Botanic Garden this year, a majestic light display celebrates multicultural holiday festivities during the winter season. Unlike most other holiday light displays, Radiant Nature, presented by Reliant, is a stunning visual experience that can be enjoyed night or day. Visitors will experience a traditional Chinese lantern festival with more than 50 larger-than-life installations, including a 200-foot-long illuminated dragon. You have plenty of time to visit as the exhibit will stay open through the Lunar New Year in February. Learn more and purchase tickets here.

Learn more about these events and, if you’re traveling, other holiday events Reliant supports across the state here: https://www.reliant.com/holidays