Eric Berger

In brief: Houston will see high rain chances through the coming weekend, but the threat of heavy rainfall will be particularly acute during the next four days. We have issued a Stage 1 flood alert for now through Thursday, which indicates the potential for street flooding. Basically, you’ll need to pay attention to the weather this week.

A wet pattern

As we discussed on Sunday, the overall setup for this week favors moderate to heavy rainfall, with the potential for some street flooding. The upper Texas coast will lay beneath a trough in the upper atmosphere, and our atmosphere will be laden with moisture. Tuesday and Wednesday look to have the most favorable setups for heavy rainfall, but chances will remain high from now until Thursday.

In terms of overall accumulations, I think the Houston area will pick up between 2 and 6 inches of rainfall this week. My biggest concern lies near the coast, with access to the most moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. This is where we could see some bullseyes above 6 inches of rainfall this week. To account for the threat we’ve issued a Stage 1 flood alert for the entire region, which produces street flooding. We’re closely monitoring the situation to determine whether we need to elevate this to a Stage 2 flood alert for coastal counties.

In Houston, roads are designed to flood during heavy rainfall. This is annoying, but in a generally flat region prone to heavy tropical rainfall, roads become arteries by which water is carried into streams and bayous, and thus eventually out into the Gulf of Mexico. So during intense rainfall, roads will briefly back up. This is why we repeatedly stress to not drive into high water. The bottom line is that, this week, we will need to be weather aware. Check the radar before you leave. At this point we don’t anticipate significant home and business flooding, but the heavy rains will likely cause some inconveniences. We’ll be here to try and pinpoint the times of greatest threats. If warranted, we will post multiple updates a day.

Monday

Of the next four days, Monday likely presents the least threat of widespread, heavy rainfall. The chances today actually look best along the coast, from Matagorda to Galveston Bay; and inland, from Montgomery County northward. The most likely scenario is that each of these boundaries remain far enough apart that the central Houston region, including downtown, remains relatively quiet today in terms of rainfall.

However, there is a slight chance the boundaries meet over downtown, near Interstate 10, in which case things would become more active over the central Houston area. Like I said above, keep a good radar app like RadarScope handy. Generally I think things will quiet down this evening and overnight. Highs today will reach about 90 degrees, or so, given the extent of rain-cooled air at your location.

Tuesday and Wednesday

Both of these days should bring waves of moderate to heavy showers through the Houston area. The first of these could arrive some time on Tuesday morning, pushing from south to north, and afterward we should see additional impulses with consistently high atmospheric moisture levels. With mostly cloudy skies, these days should see high temperatures only in the 80s—a remarkable contrast to last year when we were consistently hitting 100 degrees in late July. Overnight lows will be in the mid-70s.

We’ve had some questions about severe weather, and while we can’t rule out some high winds in stronger thunderstorms, generally the wind, hail, and tornado threats will be quite low this week. Our major concern will be heavy rainfall, and rates above 2 inches per hour that can quickly back up streets.

Thursday

We’ll remain in a very wet pattern on Thursday, but forecast models indicate that the impetus for the highest rainfall rates will back off a bit. Regardless, expect widespread showers, with highs in the 80s. At this point we’re planning to expire our Stage 1 flood alert on Thursday night, but we’ll of course be monitoring this closely.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

Elevated rain chances will remain through the weekend, but the threat of heavy rainfall should continue to diminish. If you have outdoor plans, I would have a backup plan. Daily rain chances are on the order of 60 or 70 percent, with mostly cloudy skies. Expect highs in the upper 80s to about 90 degrees.

Next week

Rain chances diminish further next week and we’re likely to see a sunnier pattern. As this happens, expect our highs to return to the mid-90s. I don’t mean to terrify or threaten anyone by saying this, but the month that comes after July in Houston is August. And well, August is the worst month of the year as we can expect heat in abundance, and the tropics to become active again after this mid-July lull.

In brief: We are issuing a Stage 1 flood alert for the entire Houston metro area, through Thursday, to account for the potential of street flooding. Much of the Houston area should pick up 2 to 6 inches of rainfall through Thursday, with a few areas seeing higher bullseyes. This post describes what to expect, when to expect it, and explains why this is happening.

A setup for rainfall, some of it heavy

In the big picture for the coming week, the upper Texas coast will lie between two high pressure systems. As anyone who has lived in Houston for any time knows, high pressure during the height of summer means sunshine and hot temperatures. And it also means sinking air, which precludes the development of showers and thunderstorms.

Conversely, when Houston lies beneath a trough of lower pressure—as we will this week—the opposite occurs. This environment promotes rising air, and thus all of the moisture at the surface can ascend into the atmosphere, cool and condense into clouds, and lead to showers and thunderstorms. Thus we will see a wet pattern this week, beginning on Monday. Showers and thunderstorms are likely on the daily, with heavy rain definitely possible as we are open to moisture streaming in from the Gulf of Mexico. We cannot rule out severe weather, but it seems unlikely with the heavy rains.

To account for this rainfall, we are issuing a Stage 1 flood alert on our scale (read more about our flood scale here). Generally, this means you can expect the potential for nuisance street flooding during the heaviest rains, the kind you typically see on some frontage roads or the like. However, we do not expect this to be a widely disruptive event. Overall, I expect much of the Houston area to pick up 2 to 6 inches of rainfall through Thursday, with a few areas seeing higher bullseyes.

As a bonus, beginning Monday, we are likely to see cooler daytime temperatures, with clouds and rain-cooled air limiting highs in the 80s. That’s a rare treat in July, and definitely a silver lining amongst the cloudy skies for the coming week. As for the humidity, well, bless your heart for expecting anything but the usual Houston steaminess in July.

What follows is not so much a daily forecast, but a guide to which days are likely to see the heaviest rains.

Sunday

Showers will be of a more scattered nature today, although areas near the coast are probably more likely to see rainfall than not. Overall conditions should not be particularly disruptive so go about your plans as usual. Have an umbrella handy this afternoon, however.

Monday and Tuesday

Both of these days will see widespread showers and thunderstorms. These should be nuisance showers for the most part, although a few storms should bring heavy rainfall. I do not recommend any outdoor plans, but in terms of traveling around Houston I don’t anticipate any major impacts.

Wednesday and Thursday

The potential for heavy rainfall looks to be highest on Wednesday through at least Thursday morning. For these days there could be some delays in getting to work, and traveling around the city. Again, we don’t anticipate major, sustained flooding. But you know how Houston thunderstorms can be. They can drop a deluge of rain in a short time, so some areas will see some fairly gnarly conditions over shorter periods of time. Basically, you’ll need to be weather aware these days.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

Rain chances lessen by Thursday night or so, which is why we’re presently planning to end our Stage 1 flood alert on Thursday night. But the possibility of rain is definitely not going away this weekend. Expect the rainy pattern to continue, albeit with less intensity and perhaps better odds to see some sunshine. Next week, however, does look hotter and sunnier.

A note of thanks

I want to thank Matt for covering the site all last week while I attended a family reunion in Michigan. I don’t want to brag too much, but it felt amazing to go running with temperatures of 60 degrees and low humidity. It offered a reminder that, in just a couple of months, we can look forward to some of the same here. Speaking of which, when we stepped off the plane at Hobby Airport and felt that first flush of Houston air, my family immediately knew we were home. We should come up with a word for what it’s like to experience that first taste of Houston humidity when landing here. Suggestions?

In brief: Today’s post offers some thoughts about the need for a reckoning with power distribution in the greater Houston area, and greater resiliency given the conditions we regularly experience. In terms of a forecast, we will see additional thunderstorm chances today and Saturday before a hotter and calmer pattern begins Sunday.

Is this CenterPoint’s ERCOT moment?

Three and a half years ago nearly everyone in Texas had a bogeyman for the power issues that bedeviled the state during the Valentine’s Freeze of 2021. More than 4.5 million homes and businesses were left without power, and at least 250 people were killed directly or indirectly by the freeze. Property damages in the state approached $200 billion when “rolling” blackouts never actually rolled. It was a disaster—both natural and manmade.

The underlying issue was power generation, in particular the failure of power plants under extremely cold conditions, and an insufficient supply of natural gas for power plants. The reasons for this lack of preparation are complex, and partly political. The bottom line is that the organization tasked with supplying the vast majority of the state’s electricity and managing the grid, ERCOT, received the majority of the blame. This led to a reckoning for ERCOT and, at least theoretically, reforms that will prevent future issues. So far, so good.

The failure of Houston’s power grid during the derecho in May and, most recently Beryl, is a distribution issue rather than a generation issue. There was plenty of power available, it just could not be delivered to residents. There are three electricity distributors in the Houston region: CenterPoint, Texas-New Mexico, and Entergy. However by far the largest distributor is CenterPoint, which has drawn the lion’s share of angst and anger since the outages began early on Monday morning. Let’s face it, being without electricity, especially in the middle of July in Houston, is absolutely miserable.

We have been pretty clear here at Space City Weather that the region should not have experienced such widespread outages. Beryl knocked out electricity to more customers than Hurricane Ike did in 2008. At Beryl’s peak, 85 percent of CenterPoint customers lost electricity. This matters because Ike was much larger and more powerful than Beryl, and brought hurricane-force sustained winds across large chunks of the Houston metro area. I’m not saying Beryl wasn’t a nasty storm, but its winds were quantitatively, and significantly, less than those of Ike.

I am far from an expert on the distribution infrastructure that delivers power into homes. It is complex, and I salute the linemen working long hours to restore service. However, Houston’s electricity distribution system is not working. It is failing us. Many residents have now experienced two prolonged outages in three months. I realize that CenterPoint can no more control the weather than I can. But after Hurricane Ike our system should have been hardened for future similar (and lesser events, like Beryl). I realize there are no easy solutions, but there are things we should be studying and the implementing, such as concrete poles, underground lines, microgrids, and other ideas.

Whatever company officials and politicians say in the coming days, the harsh reality is that our transmission system failed the Beryl test. Badly. And if we do nothing it will happen again and again.

Just as ERCOT faced a reckoning after the great freeze, our distributors need a reckoning after Beryl. The status quo, and political leaders who enable it going forward, are unacceptable. What we have seen this week is unsustainable for a city that bills itself as the energy capital of the world.

Friday and Saturday

Parts of the Houston area saw rain showers on Thursday, and some of these developed into fairly strong thunderstorms. A few locations just west of downtown picked up 1 to 1.5 inches of rainfall. This overall pattern of plenty of moisture in the atmosphere and an unstable boundary will persist today and Saturday. Therefore we are likely to see a similar pattern for the next two days, with showers developing near the coast later this morning and migrating inland this afternoon. Unfortunately, a few areas within these stronger storms will see lighting and briefly strong winds.

The upside to this pattern is partly to mostly cloudy skies, with cooler temperatures. Highs both days will be around 90 degrees, with light winds from the southeast. Overnight lows will generally drop into the upper 70s.

Sunday

By the second half of the weekend, high pressure should expand into Southeast Texas, setting the stage for a warmer pattern. We can expect mostly sunny skies and high temperatures in the mid-90s. Rain chances will be low, perhaps 20 percent, but not non-existent.

Next week

Hot, full-on summer weather arrives next week and our region will need electricity fully restored to cope. We are looking at highs generally in the mid- to upper-90s for most of the area, with mostly sunny skies. The first half of the week should be rain free, although chances for some scattered showers arrive during the second half of the week. Rain chances may improve further by next weekend as some sort of dying front approaches the region. We shall see.

To the extent possible, have a great weekend everyone. After a long period of activity, this site will go quiet on Saturday and Sunday, and then following our normal schedule of daily posting next week.

In brief: Today’s post discusses elevated rain chances today, and the rest of the week, which should help keep daytime highs a bit cooler. However, with higher temperatures on the horizon next week, power losses really need to be restored by then. I also list my top five most impactful weather disasters in Houston.

Ranking Beryl in the pantheon of Houston weather disasters

I’ve lived in Houston since 1997, covered weather on a semi-regular basis since 2001, started blogging about hurricanes in 2005, and been a certified meteorologist since 2014. I have tromped around flooded Houston streets during Allison, heard the winds howling downtown during Ike, and froze my tuchus off three and a half years ago during those “rolling” blackouts that never actually rolled.

The following list is totally subjective, but it’s coming from the perspective of someone who has probably written more words about the weather in Houston than anyone past or present—probably about 3 million words, or nearly six times the length of War and Peace. Anyway, after all that writing and thinking about Houston weather, here is my list of top five most impactful weather events since I got here:

• 1. Hurricane Harvey (2017). The competition for the top spot is not even close. The worst flood storm in US history and very likely the defining event of my career. I’ll never forget any of it.
• 2. Hurricane Ike (2008). At the time, it was the second costliest US hurricane ever, ranking behind only Hurricane Katrina. It still ranks among the top 10, and was a devastating wind and surge event.
• 3. Valentine’s Freeze (2021). We froze. We lost power. Our pipes burst. The roads iced over. The entire state of Texas, of Texas, was under a freeze warning at one point. This event impacted almost everyone in our community.
• 4. Tropical Storm Allison (2001). Before Harvey this was Houston’s flood of record. The Texas Medical Center flooded. Downtown Houston flooded. Everything flooded. Crazy rains that night. If you know, you know.
• 5. Hurricane Beryl (2024). At this point I’m prepared to put Beryl on this list due to its widespread disruptions to power and internet connectivity (still down for many, I realize). Beyond that, the storm downed hundreds of thousands of trees, and caused serious coastal flooding due to surge.

There are other serious contenders for this list. Dwight Silverman told me he believes the Drought of 2011 should be on the list, and it did cause serious structural problems in Houston, and utterly disrupted our flora and fauna. I also considered Hurricane Rita, which led to the death of 107 evacuees. Rita ultimately missed Houston, but no one who evacuated will forget that nightmare, and it led to statewide reforms in how Texas and local communities manage evacuations. Tropical Storm Imelda’s rains were catastrophic for parts of the Houston region, but a non-event for others. Other events, like Tropical Storm Frances (1998), and the Memorial Day and Tax Day floods, were also more localized phenomena.

Those are my thoughts. What about yours?

Thursday

With a boundary just offshore, and plenty of moisture in the atmosphere, we’ll start to see rain chances increase today. Coastal areas will see coverage of about 50 percent, with a few stronger thunderstorms. Areas further inland will have lower, but not non-existent chances. Increased cloud cover and rain-cooled air should help keep temperatures a bit lower today, in the low 90s for most, possibly even a touch lower near the coast. Humidity levels remain high, of course. Winds will be light, out of the southeast.

Friday and Saturday

The pattern will be more or less the same the next couple of days, with partly to mostly cloudy skies, and healthy rain chances. Showers and thunderstorms will be most likely during the afternoon hours, with daytime heating and the seabreeze providing a trigger. Highs will range from 90 to the lower 90s for most locations.

Sunday

Chances start to back off a bit, but there will still be a modest chance of rain. Look for highs in the low 90s with partly sunny skies.

Next week

High pressure starts to edge upward heading into next week, and this will increase our daily temperatures into the mid-90s, and then possibly the upper-90s. Rain chances will decrease for the start of the week, but should be on the rise again toward the end of next week. In any case, this is going to be hot summer weather in Houston, and people are going to need their power back on.