Eric Berger

Summary: Tuesday and Wednesday will bring some amazing weather to Houston before we cloud up and then see some showers on Friday. This weekend looks colder, with plenty of sunshine toward the second half. Next week should be mild.

We’re in that time of year when Houston’s weather swings from cold conditions to warmer and somewhat humid days, and then back again. It’s the in-between periods that I love most, those one or two days when we’re transitioning from the cold to the warm, when the sun is shining and the humidity not yet rebounded, that provides gorgeous weather. For this week today, and to a lesser extent Wednesday, are those days. If anyone can suggest a name for this terrific transition weather, I’d love to hear it.

Tuesday

With high pressure holding sway, skies will be sunny today. After our chilly start (in the low 40s for most) we’ll warm nicely into the mid-60s. Today has it all: sunshine, very light winds, and low humidity. We’ll start to see a light southeasterly wind tonight that will herald the beginnings of an onshore flow, but temperatures should again drop into the low- to mid-40s.

Wednesday

Valentine’s Day will be pretty nice as well for you and your sweetheart, with partly sunny skies for much of the day and highs in the upper 60s. Winds will still be pretty light, but perhaps blow at 10 mph from the south. We’ll start to see more cloud cover later in the afternoon or evening hours. Lows will drop into the 50s.

Thursday

This will be a warmer and mostly cloudy day, with light southerly winds and highs generally in the mid-70s. With dewpoints near 60 degrees, the air will feel a bit more muggy than it’s been. Lows will only drop to around 60 degrees on Thursday night.

Friday

This day is likely to produce widespread showers, especially the closer one lives to the coast. First of all, that southerly flow is going to help pump up atmospheric moisture levels. The we’ve got a coastal low pressure system that is going to be a rainmaker. For now, however, it looks as though the majority of that precipitation is going to fall offshore.

Still, most of Houston south of Interstate 10 is likely to see 0.5 to 1 inch of rain between late Thursday night and Saturday morning. The most likely time for showers is Friday afternoon. Further inland you can probably expect 0.5 inch or less, with some spots possibly not seeing any rain at all. I don’t think we’ll see much in the way of severe weather at this point. Highs will be in the mid- to upper-60s.

Saturday

A front will blow in on Friday night, and this should bring an end to shower activity by Saturday morning. The day with start out mostly cloudy, but we may see some clearing of skies during the afternoon hours. Highs will likely top out in the upper 50s with some fairly gusty northerly winds during the daytime. With clearing skies overnight, temperatures may fall into the upper-30s in Houston, but I think a freeze will remain just north of the metro area.

Sunday

This will be a sunny, fine day with highs in the upper 50s to 60 degrees, with light winds. Lows on Sunday night will be a few degrees warmer than Saturday night.

Next week

At this point most of next week looks warmer, with highs in the 70s and lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Humidity levels will be up, but not oppressively so. Overall rain chances look low for much of the week.

Summary: After a warm weekend, winter has blown back into Houston overnight. We’ll be sunny and colder for a few days before a warming trend begins Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms are likely on Friday and Friday night ahead of another front that should bring drier and cooler weather next weekend.

Monday

You’ll want a jacket this morning, with temperatures in the 40s across the metro area, and winds gusting up to 30 mph. Winds will remain gusty this morning, but should start to ease up later this afternoon and this evening. Skies will be sunny today, but with the influx of colder air highs will likely remain capped in the 50s. Tonight will bring the coldest temperatures of the week, with lows in the 30s for inland parts of the region, and 40s closer to the coast. With clear skies and light winds we’ll see ideal conditions for cooling.

Tuesday

After a chilly start, this will be a fine day with sunny skies, light winds, and temperatures in the mid-60s. Temperatures on Tuesday night will be a few degrees warmer, and as winds shift to come from the southeast, we’ll see the beginnings of an onshore flow overnight.

Wednesday

This will be another pleasant day, with temperatures in the mid- to upper 60s. I think skies will bring a mix of clouds and sunshine, with the likelihood of mostly cloudy skies by Wednesday evening. With a light southerly flow expect lows on Wednesday night to drop only into the 50s.

Thursday

Temperatures will push into the low 70s on Thursday, with mostly cloudy skies. It looks like rain chances will hold off until the overnight hours, at the earliest.

Friday

This should be the most dynamic weather day of the week. The combination of an increasingly moist atmosphere, low pressure over the Gulf, and an advancing front will pump up rain chances. In terms of accumulations, I expect most of the area to pick up between 0.5 and 1 inch of rain starting early Friday and running into Saturday morning. The closer to the coast you live live, the greater accumulations are likely to be. Highs, otherwise, will be in the upper 60s on Friday.

Saturday and Sunday

The aforementioned front will push into Houston during the overnight hours, and likely be off the coast by around sunrise on Saturday or shortly thereafter. Rain showers should end during the morning hours but clouds will linger. So expect a cool day, with highs perhaps around 60 degrees. Saturday night will be cold, with lows dropping to around 40 degrees in Houston, and with colder conditions for outlying areas likely. Sunday looks to be sunny, with highs around 60 degrees. Expect another chilly night.

Next week

I don’t have great confidence in conditions next week, but I’d bet on something like highs in the 70s, lows in the 50s, and partly sunny skies. After Friday’s rain chances things look dry for awhile.

Summary: The forecast remains on track, with a warmer and wetter period for the next few days ahead of a cold front on Sunday. That will bring sunnier, cooler, and drier weather back into Houston for a few days. If you’ve been wondering about the vague rumors about another polar vortex outbreak at the end of the month, Matt addressed them yesterday.

Thursday

It’s quite a bit warmer this morning across the region, with lows only dropping into the low 60s with a southerly flow in place. Skies will be cloudy today, with a light to moderate wind from the south, and highs pushing into the low- to mid-70s. The question is whether it will rain, and for the most part the answer is no. A few areas will see some light showers, but I expect them to be isolated with almost unmeasurable accumulations. Lows tonight should drop into the low 60s, with the possible development of some light fog.

Friday

This day will be quite similar to Thursday, with the exception of a bit gustier southerly winds. Friday night will be warm again, with a slight chance of showers.

Saturday

The weekend, alas, looks wetter. An increasingly perturbed atmosphere and an approaching front will produce widespread showers starting Saturday morning. Accumulations don’t look crazy. I expect most of the area to pick up between 0.25 and 1 inch of rain this weekend, with higher totals possible to the north of the metro area. This is not a flooding issue, but it will be a concern for any outdoor activities. Highs will likely be in the low 70s with cloudy skies.

Sunday

Sunday morning should bring more of the same before the front arrives, likely sometime during the afternoon hours. This may start to clear out our skies during the late afternoon or evening hours, ending the rain. Lows on Sunday night should drop into the 40s in Houston.

Monday and beyond

This looks to be a sunny, breezy, and colder day as we see the additional influx of northerly air. Highs may only reach the upper 50s, with northerly gusts up to 30 mph. Monday night looks to be rather chilly, with lows dropping into the upper 30s in Houston, possibly.

We’ll then see a gradual warming trend, but I’m not sure highs will climb out of the 60s. Additionally, after a couple of sunnier days, clouds return, and we could see several days of rain beginning on Thursday or Friday. I hate to make a prediction for another wet weekend, but yes, it’s possible.

Summary: Houston’s temperatures are in the 40s this morning, but this will be the last time until Monday as a decidedly warmer pattern sets in. It will also eventually become wetter, with some decent rain chances on Saturday and Sunday ahead of the front. Our highs will be the in the 70s before conditions turn colder on Sunday night.

Also, as a programming note, we wanted to answer a question that a lot of people have been asking about the ‘polar vortex.’ There has been a lot of chatter online about whether we’re going to experience another outbreak of Arctic air in Texas at the end of this month. Look for a post later this morning by Matt to address these concerns. The short answer is that we don’t see a particularly hard freeze coming at this time.

Wednesday

Temperatures this morning are generally in the 40s, with the usual few outliers. Conroe is in the upper 30s, and it looks like Galveston will remain at about 50 degrees. However, with winds from the southeast we’re already seeing the beginnings of an onshore flow that will bring warmth and humidity into the region. Those winds will turn fairly gusty later today, blowing at times up to 25 or 30 mph.

Skies should be clear this morning, but with increasing atmospheric moisture I think we’ll see partly to mostly cloudy skies this afternoon. We’ll be saying goodbye to the sunshine for awhile. Expect highs in the low 70s, with temperatures on Wednesday night only dropping into the low 60s. Some very light showers may be possible after midnight.

Thursday

This will be a gray and warmish day, with highs in the low 70s. Winds will be from the south, perhaps gusting up to about 20 mph. Some light rain showers will be possible, but any accumulations are likely to be on the order of a few hundredths of an inch. I’d put chances at about 20 or 30 percent, so pretty scattered. Thursday night will be cloudy and mild, in the low- to mid-60s.

Friday

This will be another day a lot like Thursday—gray and warm with low chance of light rain.

Saturday

As the atmosphere turns more turbulent this weekend we’re likely to see an uptick in rain chances. You probably have a greater than 50 percent chance of showers, especially for areas north of Interstate 10, and to the northeast of Houston, including locations such as Kingwood. In terms of accumulations most areas will see a few tenths of an inch of rain, but a few areas may see higher totals. Temperatures, otherwise, will be in the low 70s.

Sunday

This day also looks fairly warm, in the low 70s. Our weather, ultimately, will depend on the rate at which the front slogs through the area. I don’t have great confidence in those details yet, but my sense is that we’ll once again see fairly widespread showers before some cooler air starts to arrive Sunday evening or overnight. Lows on Sunday night may drop to about 50 degrees. We’ll see.

Next week

We’ll see clear skies and colder weather to start next week, with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s through Wednesday. At this point Tuesday morning looks like the coldest day, with lows possibly dropping into the upper 30s. Some rain chances return later next week, and it’s not clear to me whether we’re going to warm above the 60s. So if 70s and humidity are your jam, enjoy the next few days before somewhat colder air returns.