Eric Berger

Good morning. As we’ve been discussing this week, there is the likelihood of storms today, with the threat of severe weather during the daytime hours. There are two potential threats that I want to highlight before jumping in to the daily forecast.

Heavy Rainfall

We are already seeing light rainfall this morning across the southern portion of the region, and these showers are likely to intensify during the mid-morning hours. Much of the area is likely to pick up 1 to 3 inches of rainfall, but there is a risk of higher totals beneath the stronger storms. It is likely that areas along, and to the south and east of Highway 59/Interstate 69, will be most at risk for these totals.

To account for potential flooding we are instituting a Stage 1 flood alert, which means there will be a risk of nuisance street flooding later this morning and into the afternoon hours. The worst of the rains should shift eastward during the mid- the late-afternoon hours, and take the threat of flooding with it. Note that the Houston area’s primary radar is down for maintenance. Matt discussed some workarounds in yesterday’s update.

Severe storms

The other threat today will come from an unstable air mass that could produce strong storms. The risk of severe thunderstorms will come a little bit later, beginning during the late morning hours and persisting into late afternoon. It’s a tricky forecast because some of the morning rainfall could sap the atmosphere of energy to produce severe weather. In any case there is decent chance for damaging winds, a few tornadoes, and possibly even some hail to develop in the Houston metro area today shortly before noon, and persisting throughout the afternoon.

Thursday

As outlined above, today will be something of a mess weatherwise. For parts of Houston I think effects will be minimal, but please do be weather aware today due to the potential for severe weather. In terms of temperatures, expect highs of around 70 degrees, with rising humidity. Winds, generally from the south, could gust up to 30 or 35 mph. The potential for rainfall and storms should really drop off by around sunset, and tonight should be fairly quiet with lows in the mid-60s.

Friday

A front will move into Houston from the northwest on Friday morning before stalling near or just offshore. Skies will be mostly cloudy, with highs in the low 70s. Some lingering showers and thunderstorms may redevelop near the coast during the daytime, due to the proximity of the front. Lows on Friday night will drop into the upper 50s for inland areas, while remaining a bit warmer closer to the coast.

Saturday

This will be another partly to mostly cloudy day, with highs of around 70 degrees. Some slight rain chances will linger near the coast. Sometime later on Saturday a reinforcing, drier air mass should move into Houston, ending any rain chances and bringing some cooler air. This will drop lows on Saturday night into the 50s for all but the the immediate coast.

Sunday

This should be a partly sunny day, with drier air, and highs in the mid-60s. Lows on Sunday night will drop into the 40s for inland areas, while staying in the 50s close to the coast.

Next week

Most of next week will bring partly to mostly sunny days, with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s and 50s. Rain chances look minimal. This will be fairly typical weather for December. We likely will see a bit of a warming trend toward the weekend, with highs perhaps in the low 70s. We’ll see.

Fundraiser

We’re in the final days of our 2023 annual fundraiser. Click here to buy merchandise or donate to support Space City Weather. Thank you!

On a chilly morning like this, it is not difficult to imagine that winter will begin soon. But could spend this entire post discussing when winter begins. Is it Dec. 1? Is it the winter solstice, Dec. 21 this year? Is it the region’s first freeze? For the sake of simplicity, since this is a weather website, we’re going to use “meteorological winter,” which encompasses the months of December, January, and February. That works well for Houston because that is, invariably, when the region’s coldest weather visits us.

The big driver for our weather this winter will be a robust El Niño in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. This warming of the equatorial Pacific Ocean will almost certainly persist throughout winter. When El Niño is present during the winter months, it generally has a pronounced effect on the Pacific jet stream. Instead of being variable in its track, often entering North America near the state of Washington and southern British Columbia, it more consistently tracks into California and Mexico’s Baja peninsula. This brings a more southerly storm track, including over Texas.

This should make for a fairly straightforward forecast for Texas, including the Houston area, during the winter time months. There is, however, one risk that I’ll discuss below. But first, the outlook. According to NOAA (and historical trends during El Niño), we can expect near-normal temperatures this winter in Texas.

Additionally, given the more southerly storm track, we can expect more precipitation this winter. Note I said precipitation, as during the winter months we can see rain as well as the potential for sleet, snow, and even freezing rain. In any case, since the atmosphere overhead is likely to be more disturbed, this should make for a fairly wet winter. That should help take care of our lingering drought, especially along the Sabine River area.

So that’s what we can expect during a typical El Niño winter. But there is a wild card at play, and that is the lingering effect of very warm temperatures this year (driven largely, but not exclusively, by climate change). As long-time readers will know, the interaction between land and sea temperatures is a crucial part of weather forecasting, and the sea surface temperatures are out of whack right now.

A non-nominal El Niño

Here’s what I mean by that. The map below shows the sea surface temperature anomaly this fall. Clearly we can see the warmth in the equatorial Pacific Ocean due to El Niño. But much of the northern Pacific and Atlantic Oceans are also very warm, which is not normal leading into an El Niño winter.

Now let’s compare that to what sea surface temperature anomalies were like during the last four strong El Niño events, 1982-83, 1997-98, 2009-10, 2015-16, during the period of November to March. This is what sea surface temperatures have looked like during the last four winters, so it is basically what we should expect to happen this winter if all else were equal.

But all else is not equal. I realize we’re doing a bit of comparing apples to oranges here, but the basic takeaway should be clear: Northern Hemisphere sea surface temperatures heading into this winter look almost nothing like they would during a typical El Niño winter—they’re much warmer. Therefore I would rate this winter forecast as low-confidence, with a high amount of risk.

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Skies will be sunny today and part of Wednesday, but after that our pattern will change as a slow-moving front approaches the area and brings widespread rain showers on Thursday in addition to the potential for storms. Some rain chances will linger through the weekend, which will see a mix of sunshine, clouds, and rain chances to go along with highs in the 60s.

Tuesday

As high pressure holds sway today, we’re going to see mostly sunny skies. With a cool, light northeasterly flow in place, highs will max out at about 60 degrees for most of the area. As winds shift to come from the southeast overnight we’ll see a slightly warmer night, although most of the region is still likely to drop into the mid-40s, or even a bit cooler for areas further inland. This should be our last night in the 40s for several days.

Wednesday

If your skin has been feeling drier, fret not, as dewpoints start rising on Wednesday in response to an onshore flow. We’ll also see that atmospheric moisture in the form of some clouds, which will pretty much blanket the sky by the afternoon hours. Look for highs in the upper 60s. Rain chances should hold off during the daytime and evening, but we may start to see some scattered showers by around midnight or shortly after. Lows on Wednesday night will only drop to around 60 degrees.

Thursday

On Thursday the ingredients—increasing atmospheric moisture, an advancing cold front, as well as other factors—should come together to produce rainfall and potentially some storms. The best chance of heavy rainfall and storms will probably come on late Thursday morning into the afternoon hours, so that’s something to think about in regard to a potentially messy commute home. In addition to 1 to 2 inches of rainfall, we will also see decidedly gusty winds, perhaps above 30 mph. Rain chances start to slacken a bit by Thursday evening, and overnight lows will drop to about 60 degrees.

Friday

The front should move just offshore on Friday, and that may allow for a bit of clearing during the daytime on Friday. Right now my expectation is for partly sunny skies, highs in the mid-60s, and somewhat lower humidity. Lows on Friday night will drop to around 60 degrees or a bit warmer.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend forecast remains a bit uncertain due to the proximity of the front to the coast, which may provoke some additional showers. For now let’s go with partly to mostly cloudy skies on Saturday, with perhaps a bit more sunshine on Sunday. Both days will likely see highs in the upper 60s and lows in the 50s. Each day will also have a decent chance of light to moderate rainfall, especially areas nearer the coast and to the east of Houston.

Next week

A reinforcing push of drier air should arrive later on Sunday or Monday, and this probably will give us a few days next week with highs in the 60s, lows in the 40s, and low- to non-existent rain chances. That will feel pretty much like December in Houston feels. Speaking of December, look for our official winter forecast later this morning.

Fundraiser

Don’t forget that we’re still selling merchandise and taking donations for our annual fundraiser to support Space City Weather. It ends this week so that all items can ship in time for Christmas. Thank you!

Good morning. Low temperatures have dipped into the upper 30s for much of Houston outside the urban core, and away from the coast. With chilly conditions expected for the remainder of November, it looks like this month will be the first one since May to record a below normal temperature.

The average temperature so far this month—calculated by adding the daily high and low, and dividing by two—is presently a little less than 63 degrees. That will slip a bit this week. It seems notable that while Houston recorded an exceptionally hot summer this year, the spring and fall have been rather temperate.

We’re also in the final days of our annual fundraiser. The response so far this year has been tremendous—thank you so much. There’s still time to buy merchandise or donate if you would care to.

Monday

Our overall pattern this week is fairly straightforward. We face three chilly days and nights before transitioning to a warmer pattern with higher rain chances beginning Thursday. This morning is likely to be the coldest of the week, with lows in the upper 30s. With partly cloudy skies, temperatures will be slow to warm, but we should eventually get into the upper 50s today, with light northerly winds. Low temperatures on Monday night should be a degree or two warmer than Sunday night.

Tuesday

This is the one day this week when we’re pretty much guaranteed sunshine, so be sure and soak it up. The combination of sunny skies and a more easterly flow should allow highs to reach the low 60s. Tuesday night will, in turn, be a degree or two warmer than Monday night, with lows likely dropping into the low 40s for much of the metro area.

Wednesday

With winds becoming more southeasterly, we’ll see a more humid flow beginning later on Wednesday, but it will take some time for the air mass to modify. As a result, I expect partly sunny skies on Wednesday, with highs in the mid- to upper-60s. As the Gulf of Mexico air moves in, we should see more clouds on Wednesday night, with lows dropping only to around 60 degrees.

Thursday and Friday

A low-pressure system will driver higher rain chances toward the end of the week, with Thursday likely to be the wettest day. Much of the area could see 1 to 2 inches of accumulating rain on Thursday. This should not be enough to cause flooding, but it should make for a fairly dreary day. Highs will be about 70 degrees. Rain chances continue Thursday night, and still should be 30 to 50 percent on Friday. This will be another warm day with a decent amount of humidity, with highs around 70 degrees.

Saturday and Sunday

The forecast for this weekend is somewhat uncertain as a cold front advances toward Houston on Friday, and then probably moves just off the coast. Our temperatures and rain chances are going to be dependent on the position of this front, and I’m just not entirely confident how far it pushes offshore. So for the time being, I’m going to predict high temperatures in the upper 60s this weekend, with lows somewhere in the 50s. Rain chances will be pretty decent for coastal areas, but likely less for inland areas. All of that is subject to change, of course.

Next week

Given the uncertainty over the weekend, I don’t feel strongly about next week’s outlook either. I do think we’ll probably see some clearing skies by Tuesday or so, and some slightly cooler weather thereafter. But we shall see!