Eric Berger

Good morning. After several days of gray and rainy weather, we’ll begin to transition to drier and sunnier weather. Our forecast for the days ahead really looks remarkably consistent, and for November, quite pleasant. Conditions start to look more dynamic next week as a stronger front moves through on Monday or Tuesday, setting up a cooler pattern that will likely persist through the Thanksgiving holiday.

Tuesday

By and large the rain is over. Over the last several days the Houston region, generally, picked up 2 to 4 inches of much needed rainfall that will help our ongoing recovery from this summer’s deep drought. There is still the potential for some isolated, light showers today, but with the low pressure system continuing to push eastward, the impetus for widespread rain has departed the building. We should actually see a bit of sunshine later today as the clouds start to break a bit. As a result high temperatures will reach about 70 degrees, with a light northerly wind. Low temperatures tonight will drop into the mid-50s, generally, in Houston. It will be a bit cooler for outlying areas.

Wednesday and Thursday

As high pressure builds over the area, we should see a pair of mostly sunny days with high temperatures in the low 70s. Winds will be light, generally from the north. Expect lows to drop into the mid- to upper-50s.

Friday

Friday may be a bit warmer, with highs in the mid-70s, and perhaps a few more clouds. Lows on Friday night will drop into the upper 50s.

Saturday and Sunday

The first half of the weekend looks splendid for any outdoor plans you have. Skies should be mostly sunny, with reasonably dry air, and highs in the low 70s. Lows on Saturday night will probably drop into the 50s, although there’s a bit of uncertainty. Sunday looks similar, although it will probably be partly cloudy due to a passing disturbance, and we can’t entirely rule out some light showers later in the day and during the evening hours. Call it a 20 percent-ish chance.

Next week and Turkey Day

Monday should be in the 70s ahead of the passage of a cold front, perhaps during the afternoon or maybe not until the overnight hours. There is a fairly decent signal for rainfall with this front, so I’d count on a healthy chance of precipitation on Monday and Tuesday, and perhaps lingering longer. We’ll see. In terms of temperatures it now appears as though the front will knock highs down to about 60 for a few days, with lows perhaps in the 40s or 50s. We’re getting to the fuzzy point of the forecast now, but at this point Thanksgiving does appear to be on the chillier side. Whether the holiday is rain free, well, I don’t have great confidence one way or the other.

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Good morning. Much of the area picked up 0.5 to 1 inch of rain overnight, and we’ll see continued light rain for most of the rest of the day—certainly nothing to worry about in terms of flooding. We’ll see sunny skies by midweek, with generally mild temperatures. The weekend looks pleasant, likely with partly sunny skies and high temperatures in the 70s.

Additionally, we’re in the midst of our annual fundraiser, during which you can buy merchandise or donate to Space City Weather to support the work we do. Please visit our pop-up store here to help keep the site running.

Monday

Additional rainfall accumulations today will be on the order of 0.5 to 1 inch for most locations, with the greater totals likely nearer the coast, and lesser totals for inland areas. It will also be a bit breezy as this coastal low pressure system passes nearby, with gusts perhaps reaching 25 or 30 mph at times from the northeast. These winds will peak during the afternoon hours. High temperatures today will likely hang around 60 degrees. We’ll only drop off a few degrees tonight, and we’re likely to see additional, on-and-off, light rain showers.

Tuesday

As the low pressure system moves off to the east, we’ll see a bit of a transition day. Some light showers may linger near the coast, but we’ll also see more, drier air moving in from the north. As a result, skies will be mostly cloudy, with highs in the mid-60s. Northerly winds will blow at about 10 mph, but may gust at times to 20 mph. Temperatures will drop into the 50s on Tuesday night.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

Have you missed the sunshine? It will return by the middle of the week, with partly sunny skies for the rest of the work week. We’ll be on a gradual warming trend, with highs of around 70 degrees on Wednesday, reaching the mid-70s by Friday. Similarly, lows on Wednesday morning in the mid-50s will climb to around 60 degrees by Friday night.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend should bring continued, mild conditions. We probably will see more partly sunny skies, with high temperatures in the mid-70s. Lows will be around 60 degrees. Saturday looks nigh on perfect for outdoor activities. There is a slight chance of some showers later on Sunday, as a disturbance passes nearby, but for now I’d bet on the majority of the Houston metro area staying dry.

Next week, and an early peek at Thanksgiving

At some point early next week, most likely on Monday or early Tuesday, the region’s next front will push into the area. Some showers may accompany this front, but that is not entirely clear. This front is likely to usher a significantly drier air mass into the Houston region. But how much colder will it be? We can’t be sure. So Tuesday and Wednesday of next week should be a bit cooler, perhaps with highs in the 60s.

And what of Thanksgiving? Unfortunately there is a very broad spread in the model outlook at this point, with a high temperature forecast anywhere from the mid-50s to about 80 degrees. At this point I don’t really feel like guessing because the forecast could go many different ways. Will we get a reinforcing cool front in the middle of next week? Will the onshore flow return, instead, opening up the possibility of showers by Thanksgiving? As soon as there is any clarity, I’ll let you know.

Good morning. After the healthy amounts of rainfall the region received on Thursday and Friday—most areas picked up 1 to 3 inches—I wanted to reset expectations for the remainder of the “wet” period that will last through Monday. We’re probably not looking at any significant flooding, but it should be another wet and dreary day. Matt and I also wanted to take the opportunity this morning to thank veterans who have served our country. Veterans Day may be the one day we say it, but we appreciate our freedom every day of the year.

Finally, I wanted to remind readers that we have just kicked off our annual fundraiser, which will last for a limited time only. You can visit our merch store to purchase items or simply make a donation. Thank you for the tremendous response so far!

Saturday and Sunday daytime

The radar is quiet this morning, and based on the latest trends, I more or less expect that to continue for the remainder of today. Coastal areas, such as Galveston and Brazoria counties, are likely to see some intermittent, light to moderate showers. So rain chances for areas inland of Interstate 10 are probably 20 percent or less, with 40 percent or so for areas closer to the water. High temperatures on Saturday will reach about 60 degrees. Expect overnight lows to drop into the mid-50s. Sunday will probably be similar in terms of precipitation coverage, but highs should reach the mid-60s.

Sunday night and Monday

Rain chances will be on the increase beginning Sunday evening through Monday, as a low pressure system pushes into the area. There is not great consistency in the models here, but there are hints that some areas—again, most likely along or south of Interstate 10—could see some significant accumulations. Widespread rain totals may be around 1 to 2 inches, but some locations may pick up 3 to 5 inches by Tuesday morning. The bottom line is that you should plan for a wet Monday, especially closer to the coast. How disruptive might this be? It’s impossible to say for sure. We’re just starting to get into the realm of high-resolution models, so we should be able to soon tighten up this forecast. We will have an update on Sunday, if needed.

Next week

Rain chances start to fall off by Tuesday, and we’ll begin to see some sunshine on Wednesday. Highs are likely to remain in the 60s or 70s next week, with nights generally in the 50s.

Good morning! Before jumping into the forecast we want to say a word about our annual fundraiser, which kicks off today. This is your chance to support Space City Weather, and the efforts of Eric, Matt, and the rest of the crew at the website. Your purchases and donations directly support our work, the operation and maintenance of the website, our app and its regular updates, and more. Because of your generous support we are able to offer Space City Weather for free, for everyone, without any nonsense such as tracking or intrusive advertising or clickbait.

This year we’re doing things a little differently. We’ve set up a store where you can purchase any number of different items and combine them for a single shipping charge. You can also simply donate money, if you like, which is greatly appreciated. We have three different t-shirt designs this year: The lightning shirt is something I’ve wanted to do since the heat wave of 2011, a riff on a rock concert t-shirt; The quadrant plays off our preference for the Astrodome to a heat dome; and for the first time since 2016, we’re offering the original design of our first t-shirt. It ain’t fancy, but it’s the classic.

So if you’re interested in supporting us, for a very limited time only, please visit our 2023 merch store. Thank you to all our supporters!

On to the weather!

Today & Saturday

The apt word for this forecast is “dreary.” No, it is not likely to rain the entirety of today and tomorrow. But there will be periods of light rain, drizzle, or even steady rain mixed in with drier, overcast stretches. The best chance of some heavier rain would probably occur tomorrow south of I-10. Temperatures won’t go very far on either day. Temperatures won’t go anywhere today, and if anything we’ll see a slight drop in temperatures through the 60s and into the 50s. These temps will probably stay there most of tomorrow as well. If you’ve been longing for a couple gray days with chilly, damp weather, well, you’re in luck!

Sunday

The back part of the weekend is probably the best chance for a bit of a respite from rain. I do still think there will be showers or light rain pockets around on Sunday. Rain may pick up in coverage and intensity from southwest to northeast in the evening hours. I’m banking on the first half of the day to be our winner of the weekend, which isn’t saying much. it will still be in the low to mid-60s at best with clouds.

Monday

We start next week on a stormy note. A developing low pressure system in the Gulf is likely to fling a good bit of rain and a chance of thunderstorms our way Monday. Some of the rain could be heavy, especially south of I-10. We aren’t necessarily expecting anything serious on Monday, but I do think we should keep an eye on things for isolated severe storms or localized flooding.

Coastal conditions will be notable Monday with gusty winds as high as 30 to 40 mph in gusts possible, in addition to some rough seas. Monday’s highs will be in the low-60s, with lows again in the 50s.

Rest of next week

We should transition out of this pattern Tuesday, with only slight rain chances and decreasing clouds. Highs will be in the 60s again. We warm up Wednesday through Friday with temperatures rebounding into the 70s and lows back into the 60s. Our next cold front is probably arriving sometime next weekend. Details on what comes with that are too soon to say right now.