Matt Lanza

In brief: After a delightful pair of days in Houston, the humidity returns today. The weekend will not be a washout, but there may be some showers or even a storm around on Saturday before we cool off significantly and clear out on Sunday. Then, buckle up for a splendid start to spring break week for those who celebrate.

Today

The last couple days have been incredible around the area with low humidity and extremely comfortable temperatures. One could gripe with the wind a bit, but nothing’s ever perfect. Today will see a bit of a change. Humidity will begin increasing again as onshore flow resumed yesterday afternoon. Dewpoints rose into the 40s yesterday evening, and they’ll push into the 60s by this evening marking the return of more “clammy” Houston weather. Aside from that, we will see increasing clouds as well with highs into the 70s. With a little sun, we could test 80 degrees this afternoon.

Will the weather be trill for Bun B’s birthday bash? No, but it won’t cause you any headaches. Temperatures will drop back into the lower 70s through the evening, but the humidity will make it feel a touch damp. Otherwise, no rain is expected for this evening. Nothing “Ludacris” (alert alert) about that.

The weekend

A cold front is going to push through the Houston area tomorrow night. Ahead of it, there will almost certainly be scattered showers or a few rumbles of thunder during the daytime and evening hours Saturday. The Storm Prediction Center has areas just off to our northeast under a marginal risk (1/5) for severe storms, which is to say we probably won’t see anything too earth-shattering in the Houston area.

Still, don’t be shocked to hear some thunder Saturday. Morning lows won’t get much below 70 degrees and daytime highs should be in the low-80s. There could be areas of patchy dense fog near the coast. That front sweeps the humidity and any fog back out into the Gulf on Sunday, and we get a taste of late winter with a good bit of sunshine. Morning lows will start in the 40s Sunday and warm into the low-60s, if that on Sunday afternoon. It will also be a bit breezy at times once again. Bust out the jackets!

Monday & Tuesday

Next week starts off delightful with highs in the low-70s and morning lows in the 40s. Expect lots of sunshine, so for those of you staying close for spring break, prepare to deal with lots of crowds in the usual outdoor spring break magnets. But with weather this nice, perhaps it’s worth it! Truly chamber of commerce weather.

Rest of next week

For those who think the 70s and 40s routine is a bit tired and cool, good news. Temps will warm into the 80s on Wednesday and Thursday, possibly even the mid-80s. Look for our friend the wind to return late next week, possibly quite gusty by Friday or so. There may be a shower or storm in the forecast by Wednesday or Thursday.

In brief: Houston has a really nice weekend ahead of us with 70s and sunshine. Next week gets a little trickier with a storm system Tuesday that could deliver some strong storms, followed by another round of very nice weather.

As the Houston Livestock Show & Rodeo kicks off with the BBQ cookoff this weekend and the parade tomorrow and Mardi Gras rolls on in Galveston, southeast Texas will be treated to some really solid spring weather. But we will be watching next Tuesday for the potential of some stronger thunderstorms.

Today through Sunday

All three days should be partly to mostly sunny with highs in the 70s today, near 80 tomorrow, and back in the 70s on Sunday behind a weak little backdoor front coming from Louisiana. Morning lows will be in the 50s or upper-40s in spots. There may be some fog around tomorrow morning, and there is a chance of some fog clinging to the coast tomorrow afternoon. For Mardi Gras in Galveston, bring a hoodie. If you’re going to pre-Rodeo events or scoping out the Dynamo (and Messi) this weekend or anything else, it’s going to be great.

Monday

Much stronger onshore flow begins to establish on Monday, leading to warmer temps, higher humidity, clouds, and some patchy fog. A few isolated showers or pockets of drizzle cannot be ruled out. After morning lows near 60, daytime highs will probably push to near 80 degrees.

Tuesday

Tuesday is going to be an interesting day. There is a very clear-cut severe weather risk Tuesday as a disturbance and front approach. The question locally is whether the “cap” can break.

For those new to Houston or that aren’t familiar, often during springtime severe weather events, Houston’s geography allows it to be somewhat protected by what we call a “cap” in the atmosphere. It’s just a point above our heads where the air turns warmer and drier all of a sudden, which physically essentially “caps” how tall clouds (and thus thunderstorms) can grow to be. Houston often avoids the fate of the rest of the southern Plains’s reputation for being tornado alley in spring because of this.

The challenge for us, especially 5 days out, is determining whether or not that “cap” will be eroded or break. And that’s just not really a high-confidence parameter to predict. That said, the highest risk for severe storms on Tuesday will clearly be to our north. But the risk of some strong to severe storms close to the Houston area, especially on the north side of I-10 is not zero.

Otherwise, Tuesday looks breezy and warm, with highs around 80 degrees.

Rest of next week

Behind Tuesday night’s front, the rain and storm threat will end and much cooler, drier air will push back into the area. It looks like a wonderful finish to next week. High temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday will probably be near 70 with morning lows in the 40s and 50s.

In brief: After a very cold end to this week, Houston begins to warm up this weekend. It’s possible some of this weekend’s rain begins as mixed rain and sleet tonight and Saturday morning, but no accumulation will occur. A decent rain for parts of the area this weekend will lead to quieter, warmer weather and patchy fog next week.

Yesterday ended up being the fourth coldest day of winter on an average temperature basis, with the high and low combining to average about 35 degrees. Our coldest day this winter was back during our January snowstorm, with a daily average of 32.5 degrees. One of the challenges with “daily average” is that if you have a high temperature at midnight, as we did on Wednesday, it doesn’t necessarily capture how the true day was. Whatever the case, it has been a cold finish to the week.

Today

This morning? Not quite as cold.

We were probably helped by some clouds that started to roll in after sunset. That said, it’s still chilly this morning, and with the cloud cover, temperatures will struggle again today. The forecast high is around 40 degrees, and there’s at least some chance we never get there and stay mired in the 30s all day. Bundle up.

Tonight: “Conversational” sleet?

Temperatures won’t go very far tonight; they’ll probably stay in the mid to upper-30s, rising a bit toward sunrise possibly. There is a chance of some light rain or drizzle both tonight and Saturday morning. With the cold, dry air mass still in place, I would not be at all surprised to see some of the precipitation fall as sleet in spots. It won’t accumulate, but this is the kind of setup that would periodically lead to you leaping out of your chair because you “thought you heard pinging outside.” And indeed, you’d look and see some ice pellets falling or a small gathering of them in your gutters. Whatever the case, conversational wintry precip is possible tonight and early on tomorrow, but again no real accumulation will occur.

Rest of Saturday and Sunday

As Saturday progresses, onshore flow continues, and temperatures warm we will see more and more scattered showers develop (no more sleet). A few heavier showers or even some non-severe thunderstorms are possible tomorrow afternoon, especially south and east of Houston. That continues into tomorrow night and Sunday before the whole thing shifts east of the area by midday Sunday, leading to some gradual clearing.

All told, this should be a good soaking for coastal areas in particular. As you go north and west of the city, rain totals will sharply drop off to under an inch and probably around or under than a half-inch from Conroe through Columbus. Sunday’s high temperatures will bounce back into the 50s.

Monday through Wednesday

We are going to head back to spring next week, with a big warm up Monday (upper-60s to near 7), Tuesday (low to mid-70s), and Wednesday (mid to upper-70s). We should see sunshine return as well in this time. There will probably be some locally dense fog Monday morning, so just be aware of that. And with warm weather after a decent cool spell, you can almost guarantee that sea fog will return to coastal areas for at least a time next week.

Our next cold front looks to arrive sometime Thursday with just a slight cooldown for us. No sign of additional freezing temperatures is showing up in the forecast. But, as it goes, things can always change. We’ll continue to watch.

In brief: Houston should strap in for a stretch of ups and downs in the temperature department culminating in a return to winter-like cold next week. In between, a slight chance of strong storms east of Houston Saturday, and another round of rain Tuesday into Wednesday. Our biggest question mark is exactly how cold it gets next week.

Happy Valentine’s Day to all! Of course, we don’t need a singular day out of the year to know you love us. We love you too. (No, but seriously, we always want to share our appreciation of your support, so thank you). If you love warm weather or you love cold weather or loathe either, we have something in the forecast for you.

Today & tonight

There are some lower and mid-level clouds moving across the region this morning, as warmer, more humid air is trying to begin returning to the region. While the sun may poke out here and there, look for mostly a cloudy-ish day. A few showers or a very isolated thunderstorm may move through later this afternoon. The vast majority of the day should be dry, however. Highs will eventually reach the upper-50s, though it may not occur until later in the evening due to the clouds. In fact, temperatures should actually keep rising tonight until they reach the mid-60s on Saturday morning.

Saturday

The main concern for Saturday will be severe weather potential. We are fairly confident that the bulk, if not all severe weather will remain to our east tomorrow. If you are traveling into Louisiana or Mississippi, there could be a fairly noteworthy severe weather outbreak, however.

That said, we will likely still see showers and storms around the Houston area throughout the day but in a bit of a disjointed, improv, hit and miss type fashion. Look for that throughout the day, likely ending as perhaps a narrow line of developing thunderstorms when a cold front exits the area after 3 or 4 PM. Temperatures will push well into the 70s on Saturday, possibly even near 80 degrees in spots south of I-10 or to our east.

Sunday

Oh, you’ll be greeted by a casual 35 degree drop in temperatures on Sunday morning, from just shy of 80 to near 40 degrees. Some areas will likely dip into the 30s too. It will also be on the breezy side, especially near the coast with Galveston likely seeing some wind gusts of 30 to 35 mph. So expect Sunday to feel a lot more like winter. The winds will lighten up and temps should warm into the 50s or even near 60 though, so it won’t be too bad of an afternoon.

Monday & Tuesday

Monday, we rise to near 60 degrees, while Tuesday should push into the mid-60s. Watch for showers by Tuesday afternoon.

Back to winter

A much more aggressive return to winter is in the cards for later next week. The showers on Tuesday afternoon will precede a storm system that passes by on Wednesday morning. To be frank, the model handling of this storm has left a lot to be desired, as there have been a lot of run to run shifts, with even some model runs implying rain ends as sleet or snow north of Houston. That’s not what we’d call the “base case” outcome, but it’s out there as a minor possibility at least. Whatever the case, we have a couple more days to pin this down, so I’d just ask you to bear with us.

Because of the uncertainty we know that while it will likely get quite cold later next week, we aren’t quite entirely sure of the amplitude yet. I would suspect that Houston proper sees upper-20s for low temperatures, while outlying areas would be somewhat colder. But there is a wide variety of possible outcomes to the point where realistically Houston could be as cold as 20 degrees or as “mild” as 35 degrees by Thursday morning. We are fairly confident that Thursday morning would be the coldest morning.

If you live north of Houston, get your plant coverings prepared once again. In Houston and points south, just keep watching and waiting. More to come on this.