Matt Lanza

It’s been a busy morning with a line of heavy rain and thunderstorms moving through. We even had a tornado warning in Brazoria County earlier from this vigorous little storm. As of just about 7 AM, the heaviest rain is east of I-45, with Galveston and Chambers Counties in line for the worst over the next hour or so.

In addition to the rain, gusty winds of 40 to 45 mph are possible, especially in Galveston and Trinity Bays and near the coast. All of this will progress eastward toward Beaumont and Port Arthur through mid-morning with heavy rain and strong winds, as well as some embedded thunder. Most areas will finish with 1 to 1.5 inches of rain when all is said and done, with isolated higher and lower amounts.

Rest of today

Once this line of rain and storms exits to our east, we’ll be left with a few hours of showers or lighter rain and clouds this morning. By afternoon, we could see some clearing begin to push in from the west, so some sunshine may pop out, especially south and west of Houston before the end of today. Otherwise, look for highs in the 50s with a slight northwest breeze.

Weekend

This weekend looks splendid for the most part. There could be areas of fog overnight into Saturday morning, but I would expect those to clear out rather fast on Saturday morning. Otherwise, expect sunshine both Saturday and Sunday, with nothing more than the high clouds we’ve seen at times over the last month or so, especially south of Houston.

Both mornings should see lows near 40 or so in Houston proper and some upper-30s in the suburbs. Daytime highs will be near 60 on Saturday and probably the same on Sunday.

Monday

Next week is going to begin on an active note. From Sunday night into Monday, southerly winds will surge humidity in off the Gulf. At the same time, a storm system will kick start off the Rockies and move into the Plains, dragging arguably the strongest cold front of this winter across Texas. So what does it mean? A number of things.

First off, we’re likely to see winds pick up off the Gulf Monday, with gusts of 20 to 30 mph or even a bit stronger at times. We’ll all notice this.

It’s still too soon to really get into the finer details of things yet, but we are expecting scattered thunderstorms on Monday, and any of those storms could be on the stronger side. Right now it appears that gusty winds may be the biggest concern with any storms, but we’ll look at this closer through the weekend and report back with an update.

The Storm Prediction Center has us outlined for a slight (level 2 of 5) risk of severe storms right now. We’ll monitor this through the weekend.

Temperatures on Monday are also going to surge warmer, with highs likely in the 70s in the afternoon. Everyone should see a bit of rain but totals will vary widely depending on how storms setup. Again, we’ll fine tune this ahead of Monday.

For anyone heading to or visiting for the college football national championship, it’s entirely possible that you could head into NRG Stadium with temps in the 70s and leave with temps in the 40s or low-50s, so just be aware of that.

Rest of next week

On Monday evening, a cold front will sweep through the area, likely ushering in strong offshore winds and much colder weather. Wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph or even stronger will be possible Monday night and Tuesday behind the front. Much colder air will plunge in with lows in the 40s Tuesday morning and highs only in the low-50s. This might be the coldest air mass of the winter so far, and the coldest morning will be on Wednesday, with morning lows in the 30s everywhere and a light freeze possible in the suburbs.

After that, we warm back up again with temps near 60 on Wednesday and back to near 70 or so by Thursday.

Houston Marathon

Many of you are curious about the Houston Marathon. The good news is that right now the timing of systems looks good for a cooler run. The question becomes “how cool?” We should see another system bring a front into the area probably some time on Friday, leading to a cooler, breezier Saturday. As of now, I would expect race start temperatures on Sunday to be in the 40s with hopefully light winds. We would probably warm up into the upper-40s or low-50s by the end of the run. More to come!

After a fairly nice day on Thursday, we are back to the cloud thing again today (though the east side might be seeing a good bit of sun initially). A storm system passing through tonight with a cold front will bring most of us some rain, locally heavy at times, before we clear out for the weekend. Read on for the latest on Christmas below as well.

Today

Most of today will be just fine, with nothing worse than some clouds. A passing shower is possible, especially near Matagorda Bay today or north and west of Houston this afternoon, but the rain should hold off for most of today. After 3 or 4 PM, rain chances do start to increase. Highs will be in the upper-60s to low-70s. Also look for some breezy conditions today, especially over the water and at the coast.

Tonight

The exact timing of the rain will vary from place to place, but generally look for a northwest to southeast progression of rain this evening after about 5 to 6 PM or so. Rain will fall through the night, heavy at times, especially north and west of Houston I think. There will probably be an axis of maximum rainfall that sits north and west of Houston, from Columbus to Conroe to Lake Livingston.

In that area, we’re expecting 1 to maybe as much as 2 inches, with slightly higher or lower amounts depending on exactly how things set up. For most of the city and suburbs, rain will push through but totals will vary a bit more, perhaps as little as a quarter-inch to as much as an inch or so. This will extend south and east until you get to the coast. Some locally heavier rainfall could fall near the immediate coast or just offshore. Some rumbles of thunder and some ponding on roads are certainly possible tonight, but we are not expecting severe weather or significant flooding. Lows will be in the 50s.

Saturday

Any showers should clear the area in the early morning, leaving us with clouds. We should see at least partial clearing during the day Saturday, but temperatures probably won’t get too far past 60 degrees in the afternoon.

Sunday & Monday

Both Sunday and Monday look like a great pair of early winter days. Expect sunshine with lows in the low-40s and highs in the low, maybe mid-60s.

Tuesday through Thursday

We don’t expect any significant weather for the middle of next week, but look for varying periods of sun and clouds. Days that are cloudy will be in the 50s to low 60s, while days with sun will pop into the mid to upper-60s. Morning lows should remain generally in the 40s to perhaps 50s by Thursday.

Piecing together the Christmas period

The Christmas weekend continues to look mild and potentially unsettled. Initially, look for warm weather and probably clouds and some sun with a slight chance of showers Friday and Saturday. It’s tough to pinpoint exactly what the story is next weekend, but between maps and charts, we can start to make some assumptions. Atmospheric moisture is likely to increase in Houston beginning Friday and Saturday. Right now, the European ensemble mean for precipitable water next weekend is around 1.25″ in Houston, which puts us fairly close to the 90th percentile of atmospheric moisture. In simple terms: There will be a good deal of moisture available to produce clouds and showers next weekend in the area.

Moisture doesn’t mean a whole lot unless there is a “trigger” to produce rain and storms. The best setup for that looks to be in interior Texas next Friday and Saturday, but that will march eastward Sunday and Monday, which seems to imply some sort of cold front.

So what’s it all mean? Expect clouds and some shower chances Friday and Saturday with a greater chance of rain on Christmas Eve or Christmas Day. Temperatures are likely to be a good deal above normal, with highs in the 70s likely, followed by colder weather after Christmas. We’ll see how this plays out over the weekend and update you with the latest on Monday!

First off, shout to all of you who posted your amazing sunrise and sunset pictures in the comments yesterday on Facebook. Seriously, this is one time where reading the comments section is encouraged. Some great stuff from y’all there, so thank you. We will work to integrate more of your photos more often, so please share with us as you see fit…sunrises, sunsets, storm damage, gratuitous and absolutely necessary dog photos! We don’t want to overpromise, of course, but we will do our best.

Facebook is an option for sharing with us. Twitter/X is an option as well. Instagram is an option (just message us). Good old fashioned email works too. ([email protected] and [email protected]).

Alright, let’s get into the forecast, which will feature a brief roller coaster ride with a little spring and a little autumn and winter.

Today

Much like yesterday, today should feature sun and passing high clouds. There may be a bit more cloud cover at times today, especially later. Maybe we can still eke out another good sunset. Either way, it will be a cordial golf clap sort of day. Highs will be well into the 60s and a few spots may even crack 70 this afternoon.

Friday

As a more assertive push of humid air lifts north into our area tomorrow, we should see clouds and a few passing showers. I don’t think we’re going to see a ton of sun tomorrow, but especially in the afternoon hours it’s possible. Any rainfall should be fairly brief and mostly just conversational in nature. Morning lows will be in the 60s (about 15 to 20 degrees warmer than today), and we will warm well into the 70s tomorrow.

Saturday

The morning should start off fine on Saturday with low clouds and muggy conditions. Morning lows will likely be in the mid-60s in most spots. I can’t rule out some areas of fog Saturday morning either. We could even see a little coastal fog in the afternoon down near Galveston.

The afternoon should start fine enough, but then a line of showers and thunderstorms with our much discussed cold front will push through the area. I expect this to occur in the latter half of the afternoon, probably after 2-3 PM. The line of showers and storms will start as just some scattered activity northwest of Houston, so places in the Brazos Valley and north of Conroe may see just some brief downpours or even nothing at all during the early afternoon. As the front passes through the Houston metro area, the line will be gradually congealing but even here it may still struggle a bit. The good news for anyone with plans on Saturday is that the precipitation should be moving fairly quickly. I can’t see more than an hour or so of rainfall at any one spot as this thing pushes through. Showers should reach the coast by 7 to 9 PM.

The best chance of any severe weather is likely to stay northeast of most of our area. But with these kind of fronts, there’s always a chance something pops before it exits the area. With a pretty strong “cap” in place on Saturday, however, it seems like strong storms from the Houston metro to the coast seems like a very low risk.

The main story with this front will be temperatures.

We will see high temperatures rise into the low to mid 70s in north and northwestern reaches of the area on Saturday. From Houston south, because the front is later in the day, highs well into the 70s with a few spots near 80 degrees will be likely. Behind the front, we’ll drop through the 60s and into the 50s relatively quickly, settling into the 40s on Sunday morning. In addition, winds will be quite blustery Saturday night into Sunday morning with gusts of 20 to 30 mph likely.

Sunday and Monday

Unlike our last few fronts it seems, this one will break through and clear us out. Expect plentiful sunshine on Sunday and Monday. After our chilly and windy start, Sunday will only warm into the mid to upper-50s.

The coldest morning will be Monday with upper-30s likely, and even some mid-30s in the outlying, more rural areas. We should poke back up above 60 on Monday afternoon.

Rest of next week

We should warm up through midweek, along with a return to some clouds. Another cold front may time toward late week or the weekend with showers and storms and colder temperatures. These types of El Niño-ish patterns usually feature cooler days and cool to cold night — but not intense cold. No sign of freezing temperatures for Houston on the horizon for now.

A couple quick housekeeping notes today before we get into things. First, our annual fundraiser will end soon! We are grateful for your support so far, and if you want to purchase merchandise to be shipped in time for Christmas or just simply make a donation, you still can here. Thank you!

Houston’s KHGX radar maintenance

With rain in the forecast and at least the potential for some strong to severe storms tomorrow, Houston’s primary Doppler radar is offline for maintenance. You may say, “Why on earth would they do that?” Unfortunately, there’s no real time of year here that’s better or worse; it can storm all 12 months of the year. The maintenance necessary to replace the radar pedestal (extending the lifespan of the radar another 20+ years) is extensive and requires a lot of planning. So it’s not something they can just pause or shift. The good news is that Houston has two terminal Doppler radars (TDWRs) that cover most of the metro area, and adjacent radars to ours will provide imperfect but mostly adequate coverage through the outage.

For those of you that use our app for radar coverage, there is a workaround. If you tap the radar in the app, you’ll notice two diamonds, one on the south side of Houston and one on the north side. Those are the aforementioned TDWR’s from Tomball and Pearland, and you should be able to pull data from those, covering essentially the entire metro area. If you live outside the city and suburbs, you can move the map around to a few other options. To the west, the radar north of Austin can cover most of the northwest fringe areas outside the Houston metro to about College Station and Brenham or so. Corpus Christi’s radar is useful for Matagorda Bay up through maybe Wharton. Lake Charles’s radar will cover the east side adequately to just east of Baytown. Coverage between about Huntsville and Lufkin will be a little trickier, but Shreveport and the Tomball TDWR will help there. Inconvenient for sure, but not a calamity, and this is great news for the long term health of our area’s extremely valuable Doppler radar.

Today

Wednesday will be a fairly calm day across the area. No trouble yet. We’ll see clouds roll in and thicken up from south to north through the day. They’re already starting to do so in fact. But some of the lower clouds could scour out by late morning before more clouds increase again later. Temperatures should peak in the mid to maybe upper-60s later today.

Tonight

Look for winds to kick up tonight, especially at the coast, where they could gust to 30 mph or so by morning. Scattered showers will spread north and east through the night, arriving in the Matagorda Bay area by midnight and across the rest of the metro area by morning on Thursday. Temperatures will only drop back a few degrees overnight, into the low-60s or so. They should even climb some toward morning.

Thursday

In a couple words: The worst of the weather tomorrow should occur from about 8 AM to 4 PM, with strong to locally severe thunderstorms, capable of producing strong winds, hail, and isolated tornadoes, as well as heavy rain.

We will have a couple things to watch for on Thursday. First and foremost, strong to severe thunderstorms may begin to break out across the area as early as the back half of the commute, after 8 AM or so. The atmosphere looks fairly primed to produce storms with strong winds, potentially some hail, and even a tornado or two around the region. This doesn’t look quite as foreboding as what we experienced almost a year ago back in January with the Pasadena tornado (which was an exceptional setup for severe weather here), but the parameters are definitely aligned for at least some severe weather.

More technically: There’s a pretty healthy amount of wind shear (wind changing direction with height) available tomorrow. You need wind shear for severe weather and tornado risk. But the window for that severe weather and tornado risk tomorrow looks conditional and narrow. In other words, we need the appropriate amount of instability to realize to generate thunderstorms. And on top of that, we need the storms to be able to tap into that shear and instability at low levels. This is not a slam dunk case for severe weather, but it’s enough to say that if storms can realize their full potential tomorrow there could be a couple tornadoes, especially north of I-10. We should have a better idea on this tomorrow and will have more for you before it gets messy out there.

In terms of rainfall, we are not expecting significant or widespread flooding. But street flooding is a decent possibility in a few spots tomorrow. Most areas will see a half inch to inch or so of rainfall, but a couple isolated spots will almost certainly see 2 to 3 inches of rain or even a bit more, much of which could fall quickly.

All this should start to clear off to our east by late afternoon and evening, leaving us with clouds and a few showers. Temperatures and humidity will build up tomorrow, with highs near 70, and you’ll feel the dampness.

Friday

The forecast gets a bit trickier on Friday. The storms of Thursday will be well off to our east as a cold front slips into the region. However, it looks as if this front may stall near the coast or just offshore. This would keep us generally a bit cloudy and unsettled with shower chances, depending on exactly where it stalls. Temperatures will be mainly in the 60s, with 70s will be possible near the coast on Friday. The exact placement of the front will determine how warm it is on Friday.

Weekend into next week

That front may backpedal onshore Saturday, bringing more clouds and showers. Morning lows will range from the 50s inland to 60s near or south of the front. By Sunday, the stalled front should be escorted out into the Gulf by a second cold front which will usher in cooler, drier air and hopefully some sunshine for early next week. Admittedly, I’m skeptical about much clearing right now but we’re still several days out.

Texans tailgating looks okay right now, with temperatures probably in the 50s to low-60s most of the morning, warming into the mid-60s or so for the afternoon. I’m not going to completely rule out a shower, but I would lean toward drier weather at the moment.

Temperatures will drop to the 60s for highs, 40s for lows early next week, and another warming trend may impact us next weekend.