Matt Lanza

Summary: After a wet and at times weird Thursday, the weather will calm down for the weekend. Our next storm aims for us on Monday, with another chance of showers or thunderstorms. Temperatures will remain on the cooler side at night, with mild to warm daytimes.

Quick editor’s note. Look for the second in our Q&A post series later this morning with answers to some of your questions!

Recap of yesterday

Rain totals yesterday were pretty healthy across most of the region. Between the early day rain in Houston and points south and later day rounds of thunderstorms north of Houston, virtually the entire area picked up a needed 1 to 3 inches of rain, with pockets of higher amounts.

Additionally, we had another couple rounds of hail reports with the evening storms, which felt like they came out of nowhere. If you squinted enough at early day model data, you could see some signals, but in real time, it was a bit difficult to pick out that there would be two additional rounds of storms north of Houston between the AM rain and overnight storms.

Anyway, we did have some pretty nasty hail north of Houston, with mostly quarter to half-dollar size hail reports from Copperfield through Jersey Village to near Acres Home and the Northside.

We had some additional hail reported north of there after 9 PM, though reports seemed a bit sparser. Then we had one final round of storms around or after Midnight. Those had strong winds and maybe some brief small hail. And absolutely torrential rain. And a gorgeous lightning display as they moved away.

It was a day.

Today and Saturday

We need a little time to dry out now, and we’ll get it today and tomorrow. Clouds should be on the gradual decrease today, leading to a nice afternoon. A couple showers may graze areas northeast of Houston late today as the system responsible for yesterday’s storms exits to the east. Highs will be in the 70s.

Look for sunshine tomorrow with highs well into the 70s after morning lows in the 50s. Splendid weather for the Bayou City Art Festival downtown or Saturday evening’s Houston Dash match with Racing Louisville, among many other activities this weekend. Yesterday’s rain did a number on pollen, but we may see it bounce back this weekend, so just be advised if you’re an allergy sufferer!

Sunday

We’ll transition to a slightly more humid setup as Sunday progresses. Morning lows in the 50s or low-60s would be followed by more clouds than sun at times, with highs in the mid-70s. Onshore winds will nudge up as the day wears on, so you’ll probably notice that also. I wouldn’t entirely rule out an isolated shower late in the day, but the vast majority of us should stay dry.

Monday

Our next system will join us for a limited engagement on Monday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely before a cold front approaches in the evening hours. I don’t want to overstep my bounds of confidence right now, especially given how yesterday evening unfolded. But this storm looks a little less potent than yesterday’s. Still, showers and storms will be possible as early as Monday morning, ending sometime in the evening (though it shouldn’t rain in that entire window we don’t think).

Most areas should see about a quarter to half-inch or so of rain, but I would say this is a bit of a fluid forecast. Check back in either this weekend or Monday to see if anything has changed.

Rest of next week

Much drier air builds in behind Monday night’s front. Dry air in late March allows us to cool off quickly in the evening and warm up quickly in the daytime. Look for highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s, if not a night in the 40s too. But we could easily see a 20 to 25 degree range in temperatures each day. Break out the quarter zips and shorts!

Summary: A couple rounds of shower chances exist today, this morning and later this afternoon. Many folks won’t see much meaningful rain though. Showers clear this evening with much cooler and drier weather for the weekend. Temps warm back up next week with rain chances returning for the second half of the week.

Before we begin today, Eric and I want to say “Howdy!” to Nyree Doucette’s 4th grade students at Sinclair Elementary. They have been using our forecasts to help plan for their Rodeo Day today, hoping for no rain. It’s been a real close call all week it seems, and unfortunately, it’s not any less close today as you’ll see below. Whatever happens, thank you for reading our forecast, hopefully you can learn something, and we really hope your Rodeo Day goes off and is fantastic!

Today

So, we saw a few more showers than perhaps we expected yesterday evening, which creates a slight conundrum in our forecast for today. Based on everything I’ve been able to digest this morning, I think there are two general phases to today’s rain chances. The first phase is this morning. Sorry to Ms. Doucette’s 4th graders.

That doesn’t mean the morning will be a total washout! But it does mean that we should see scattered showers around the region. I would not entirely rule out a rumble of thunder, but that should be the exception, not the rule this morning. Not everyone will see rain but those that do could briefly see some heavier downpours. I would assume the afternoon is partly sunny with some stray showers or a thunderstorm around. No severe weather is expected in Houston or points south at this time, but the chance for an isolated strong or severe storm increases as you go north of Harris County. Folks in the Piney Woods up through Shreveport may see some decent hailers today.

Other than that, highs today should manage our fifth consecutive day of 80 or better.

The second chance at some storms comes late this afternoon or this evening. Read on.

Rodeo Forecast

These storms should be even more isolated and less pronounced than anything earlier in the day, but one or two rogue thunderstorms could pop up in the area this evening with the actual cold front as you’re making your way to Houston Livestock Show & Rodeo. It’s Major Lazer night, so we don’t want to throw any cold water on your anticipation, but just don’t be shocked if there’s a brief 10 to 20 minute shower. Otherwise, the front should begin to push across the area in the evening, sending temperatures from to mid to upper-70s as you arrive to the upper 60s as you leave. There could be a bit of a breeze on the way out with noticeably lower humidity.

We’ll eventually see temperatures drop all the way into the mid-50s by Saturday morning.

Weekend

The weekend looks fine, albeit a bit on the cool side. Expect to see clouds giving way to some sun through the day Saturday and perhaps again on Sunday. Along with a breeze, temperatures will be in the mid-60s Saturday afternoon and the mid to upper-60s on Sunday with less wind.

Sunday morning will be a cool one, with lows generally in the 40s across the region!

Next week

Monday looks great with sunshine and highs back into the 70s. Morning lows should be near 50 degrees. Tuesday should see a few more clouds with morning lows in the 50s and highs in the middle or upper-70s.

By the time we get to Wednesday, a few showers will be possible, with a better chance Thursday and/or Friday. Details remain to be seen, but we still could be looking at some scattered downpours and thunder in that time. Highs will be in the 70s or 80s with some humidity and lows in the 60s.

Summary: Temperatures will begin warming up today as we clear out the clouds. Look for a super Saturday and a decent Sunday with temperatures rebounding to near 80° once more. A system Monday brings us our next rain chances before we slowly clear out Tuesday.

Today

It’s a cool start today once again with temperatures in the 40s and 50s across the region.

We will probably be socked in with clouds over most of the region this morning. But as a weak system exits, slightly drier air will push in and dissipate much of the cloud cover, setting up what should be a nice afternoon. It feels like it will be tough to squeeze much more moisture out of that system as it exits today, so other than a few isolated morning showers, especially on the coast or around Matagorda Bay, that should be that. With some added sunshine and slightly warmer air in place, we’ll likely rebound to 70 degrees or better this afternoon. That’s close to what is typical for this time of year.

Rodeo Forecast

As far as this forecaster is concerned, tonight is worth much more than half a buck. Look for temperatures dropping through the 60s with light winds and generally clear or partly cloudy skies. No need for 21 questions about the weather, as there will be no rain and nothing to worry about in da club afterwards.

We’ll open the evening around 70 degrees and close in the low-60s.

Weekend

Saturday looks great. Highs will be near 80 degrees, with humidity remaining at a fairly tolerable level. Sunshine and just a few clouds are expected, though the morning could stay gray in some spots, especially close to the coast or Galveston Bay.

Sunday may see additional morning low clouds or fog, giving way to a mix of clouds and sun. Highs will again be near 80 degrees. I wouldn’t entirely rule out a few raindrops Sunday afternoon, but it should not wreck your day.

Monday

A storm over the southern Plains will drag a “kinda sorta” front toward Houston on Monday. It honestly may just fall apart before it actually gets here. What it will do, regardless, is deliver an increasing chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. I would not call Monday a washout, but it looks like our best rain chance in a minute. Temperatures will start the day in the 60s and warm to near 80 once more, even with rain chances.

Moisture levels in the atmosphere look pretty beefy on Monday, so a few folks may see heavier downpours. But this rain looks very manageable, if not welcome.

Tuesday

Arguably, Tuesday is the most interesting forecast day. Behind Monday’s decaying front, we may get just enough lowering of humidity to allow for temperatures to have a little more runway to work with Tuesday. Drier air heats up more efficiently than humid air, and that drop in humidity between Monday and Tuesday will boost temps some. The question of how warm comes down to whether or not we see clouds and lingering showers Tuesday. If that happens, we’ll probably take a run toward 80 or so once again with morning lows in the 60s.

However, with enough sunshine, we could push rather decently into the 80s. In fact, I looked “under the hood” at the National Blend of Models, and it even has a 10 percent chance of high temperatures exceeding 90 degrees on Tuesday. I surely would not forecast that, but it gives you an idea that the atmosphere is ready to go warm. Will we get the sunshine to do it? I’m not sure. But expect at least 80 on Tuesday, with risk for hotter.

Rest of next week

Beyond Tuesday, the week looks a little cooler, with highs in the 70s most days, perhaps near 80 at times. Morning lows will be in the lower half of the 60s. A few passing showers can’t be ruled out between Wednesday and Saturday. A more robust cold front may approach the region around next weekend, which could allow for a sharper drop in temperatures, not as cold as it was yesterday and this morning but notably cooler. We’ll keep an eye on that.

Summary: The weather looks drama-free over the next week or so. After another chance for 80 degrees today, a cool front takes the edge off tomorrow and this weekend. Another warm up ensues next week, followed by another front after midweek. Neither front seems likely to pack much punch right now.

Eric and I are here to keep you informed about the weather in Houston. It’s a duty we enjoy and take seriously. In times of quiet weather, we never complain. We’ve seen what bad weather is capable of here, so when the weather is quiet, we relish the fact that we can tell you so.

I’m not going to complain because I’m struggling to fill a post with forecast information because it’s all some variation of the same thing, with the temperatures tweaked a bit here and there. I most certainly got my degree in meteorology to forecast lengthy stretches of lovely spring weather in February. Absolutely. No complaints here.

No, but in all seriousness the weather looks pretty calm with no real concerns through next week. Seriously, good for us!

Today and Friday

Look for clouds and sun today. We have avoided the 80 degree mark so far this week, so will we do it today? We’ll see. That will be the only real drama today. Maybe someone can squeeze out a raindrop or two ahead of tonight’s front. For once, it seems the Rodeo Cook-Off will not be cold or drizzly or extra windy or gross. Temps should drop from the mid-70s or so into the mid-60s through the event this evening.

That front moves through between about 7 PM and Midnight. Temperatures will steadily drop everywhere through the 70s and 60s and into the 50s overnight.

Friday dawns sunny with lower humidity and highs in the 70s. No issues at all for any of your plans, be they Rodeo, BBQ, work, or frolicking down the streets professing your joy for this weather.

Weekend

SUN-sational! Highs will be in the 70s, with lows in the 50s and 40s across the region on both days. Just a delightful pair of days.

Next week

The main drama next week will probably be a day or two of gusty onshore winds. Nothing serious, but certainly something you’ll notice. We should see highs near 80 degrees Monday through Wednesday, with morning lows in the 60s. It will feel very, very spring-like. Our next front hits on Thursday with at least a slight chance of rain, but honestly, the odds of meaningful rain look pretty low right now.

After one of our wettest starts to a year, things have really slowed down. We’re probably getting to the point where we could use a little more rain. But for now at least, that’s not on the horizon.