Matt Lanza

Happy Friday to all! Hope yesterday was a good one for you. As a cool weather climate native, yesterday’s somewhat dreary weather was nice in my mind for Thanksgiving. But the sun is making a return appearance today, and that should yield a pretty nice day!

Fundraiser

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Today

The increasing sunshine today should allow temperatures to poke back up into the mid-60s across much of the area. It should be a delightful autumn day.

Weekend

Look for clouds to increase tomorrow, and there could be a shower or two south and west of Houston. A couple disturbances and some low-level moisture coming in off the Gulf will make for a decent cloud combo by later in the day on Saturday. We should still manage the 60s tomorrow after a morning in the 40s or 50s.

The best rain chance will actually come tomorrow night into early Sunday morning. The hope is that meaningful rain will clear in time for Texans tailgating, but it will be a bit of a close call. The heaviest rain will probably fall at the coast with this system. That said, we aren’t expecting more than a quarter-inch to half-inch of rain even there.

The rest of Sunday looks like a mostly cloudy, somewhat clammy day with highs in the low to mid-60s. Some lingering light rain or drizzle should end Sunday afternoon as a cold front sweeps in. Those of you attending or tailgating for the Dynamo playoff match Sunday evening should be fine. You’ll definitely need a jacket though with temps dropping into the 50s.

Next week

Break out the jackets for Monday. Back to work and school for many folks, and you’ll want to be ready with morning lows in the low-40s in Houston proper and 30s in the outlying areas.

We won’t get out of the 50s on Monday, followed up by an even colder start Tuesday. Morning lows will be in the 30s with some risk of a light freeze in far northern areas.

We’ll warm up steadily through the week back into the 60s on Tuesday and perhaps 70s by Friday or Saturday. Our next cold front is timed to sometime after next weekend. It does look like that will open up a more unsettled and potentially stormier weather pattern for us in the early days of December. We’ll have more on that next week.

If Wednesday was a pretty nice autumn day, yesterday was definitely a pretty gloomy autumn day. What will today bring? Read on.

As we head into the weekend, another reminder that our annual fundraiser is ongoing for a limited time! So get in there and get some swag if you desire. Or you can just make a donation. Whatever the case, we are grateful and thankful for your support!

Today

It’s always a bit of a roll of the dice in autumn and winter if a low deck of stratus clouds will actually clear. It’s tough to tell on satellite exactly how extensive the low clouds are today, but there are a couple things we can note based on that and observations.

I always love the image above from the College of DuPage because the color scheme accentuates low, middle, and high clouds. In the Houston area, it seems we have a pretty decent batch of middle and upper level clouds moving through that are obscuring the ability to see low clouds on the image (like you can near San Antonio). Those middle and high clouds may have also helped prevent much of the fog and low clouds from expanding near Houston this morning, meaning as the sun comes up, we may see the sun in spots.

Whatever the case, expect increasing sunny breaks today between periods of cloud cover across the area. If you’re south, east, or west of Houston and under some fog, that should lift by mid-morning. Highs will be in the low to mid-70s today, perhaps deeper into the mid-70s if the clouds clear enough.

Weekend

Saturday looks like a winner of a weekend day. We’re expecting sunshine and highs in the mid-70s after morning lows near 60 degrees. Sunday will be a bit trickier. It should start out great, with lows in the 50s and sunshine. If you’re headed to the Texans game, no issues. We’ll see clouds increase through the afternoon, with a chance of showers, especially north and west of Houston. Highs will make it into the mid-70s south and east and low to mid-70s north and west, with some far northwest locations possibly a couple degrees cooler.

Monday

The timing of the front for early next week continues to shift a bit, and we’re now pushing it out to Monday night. For the most part, Monday looks partly sunny, warm, and humid for November, with a chance of a shower or two.

We’ll see highs well into the 70s, if not around 80 degrees or so. In fact, there’s probably about a 60 to 70 percent chance that we hit 80 degrees or better on Monday, as long as the timing of the front stays where it is.

Tuesday

With the front plowing through Monday night, we will wake up to a different season on Tuesday. It will be breezy and much, much cooler Tuesday, with highs in the 60s and offshore winds probably gusting north of 25 mph. Some lingering clouds will stick around, but any showers or thunderstorms with the front will probably occur in the pre-dawn hours.

Wednesday

We’ll have a chilly start to the day Wednesday with lows in the 40s. Daytime highs will only warm into the upper-50s to around 60 degrees. But it looks dry!

For those of you traveling, it looks spectacular basically anywhere within driving distance of Houston. No issues are expected across Texas, Oklahoma, or Louisiana. If you’re headed to Colorado, it looks fine. The only trouble spots may be the Northeast, where a departing storm will likely cause air travel delays into the hubs. Winds will probably be the main issue there. Some lake effect snow is possible in the Great Lakes. And the cold front that gets us on Tuesday morning will be crossing Florida with showers and storms on Wednesday afternoon.

Thanksgiving Day

It looks great. Morning lows in the 40s and daytime highs in the mid-60s or better.

Beyond Thanksgiving it looks like we’ll warm back to 70 or so by the weekend before our next front attempts to make an appearance late in the holiday weekend.

After starting off nice yesterday, clouds did creep back for the afternoon. Most of that has cleared or is off to our east now. But we’ll fight the cloud cover forecast a bit again today. Hey, if clouds are the hardest part of our forecast, we’ll take that.

Meanwhile, just a quick reminder that our annual fundraiser is ongoing. We have a merch shop open for a limited time, or if you just want to donate to the site, you can do that too. We sincerely appreciate all the support!

Today

Clouds are going to linger this morning east of Chambers County, especially in the Beaumont-Port Arthur area. These are stubborn low clouds that are a little more difficult to eradicate in mid-November, but hopefully some sunny breaks can emerge in those areas today.

Some model guidance does nudge those clouds back west a bit, so places like Baytown or Mont Belvieu run the risk of seeing some clouds perhaps for a time later today. But overall, let’s call today mainly sunny with highs in the low-70s.

Thursday & Friday

Both days look partly to mostly sunny and calm. We should see warming conditions with highs in the mid-70s tomorrow and upper-70s perhaps on Friday. Morning lows stay in the 50s. There could be a little patchy fog on either morning, but that should lift rather quickly after sunrise.

Saturday

A weak “cool” front will swing through late Friday or early Saturday. You probably won’t notice it at all, but it will act to sort of reinforce this autumn air mass a bit. We’ll top off in the mid-70s, with morning lows again in the 50s. Expect a mix of sun and clouds.

Sunday & Monday

Clouds increase on Sunday, and we should see at least some scattered showers return to the picture by later in the afternoon or evening. Highs will be in the mid-70s, but they could be slightly warmer if clouds arrive slower Sunday afternoon.

A cold front will swing through Sunday night or Monday morning sometime it appears, which is a bit faster than it appeared yesterday. With it, showers appear likely, but rain totals should lag what we just saw recently in the area. Expect a cooler day on Monday, with low to mid-70s, although at some point, temperatures could drop 10 degrees or so, depending on the exact timing of the front.

Tuesday through Thanksgiving

Behind that cold front, we’ll have a bonafide cool day on Tuesday, with highs probably in the low-60s at best and morning lows in the low to mid-50s. Wednesday morning should see 40s for lows, as could Thanksgiving morning. Highs should be in the 60s both days. The forecast appears to be dry for both Wednesday travel and Thursday festivities. We’ll keep an eye on things, however, just in case. Warmer temps should follow into Black Friday and the weekend.

We topped out at 87 yesterday at Bush Airport, about 12 degrees above normal for the date. We have one more fairly hot day, two more real soupy days, and then the weather pattern for Southeast Texas should change beginning late Thursday or Friday. We abruptly shift into a cool and rather unsettled pattern heading into next week.

Today

Look for basically a repeat of what we experienced yesterday. Highs will be in the mid to upper-80s with a fair bit of humidity. We should see a good deal of sun with some passing clouds at times. Southerly winds of 10 to 15 mph and some gusts will be with us as well.

Thursday

Consider Thursday the start of the transition. It will again be warm and humid, with morning lows in the 60s, but we will see a good bit more cloud cover by Thursday mid-morning or afternoon. Coverage of showers with the approaching cold front should begin to increase Thursday afternoon, especially off to the north and west of Houston. Normally I would say the rain may arrive quicker, but with a lack of any Arctic air push behind this front, I would expect just a gradual increase in rain coverage from northwest to southeast through the latter half of the day. Basically, if you have Thursday afternoon plans, include an umbrella. Highs should be in the 80s but a couple degrees less warm than today.

Friday

A gray day. We are expecting periods of showers with some steadier rain possible at times. It will be noticeably cooler with temperatures generally holding in the 60s all day and perhaps a slow drop toward evening. Not exactly cold, but certainly cool. The cold front will push offshore and likely stall somewhere. That front will act as a focal point for disturbances in the coming days, so where it parks is important for rain chances.

Weekend and beyond

I’ll preface this by saying there is a high degree of uncertainty in the exact day to day weather between Saturday and Tuesday or Wednesday. We have several systems to watch that will be capable of delivering periods of rain. I would expect a showery, if not rainy Saturday, especially south of I-10. Our highest confidence is that Saturday may be a fairly damp day for Houston and points south.

Sunday could see breaks of sun north and clouds and showers south. Monday should see more clouds than sun with a rain chance. Tuesday would see clearing, followed by a quiet Wednesday and Thursday. But as I said, there is very little confidence in the specifics here.

Specifics, details, and more are a long way from being settled, but there is the potential for several inches of rain over the course of the next week, especially south of Houston. The best chance for this may be around Corpus Christi and up through Matagorda Bay to Freeport and Lake Jackson, with diminishing rain chances as you go north. But much will depend on exactly what happens with Thursday’s front, where it stalls out, and what it does into next week.

One thing we’re fairly confident in is that temperatures will remain cool due to this pattern. Look for highs in the 60s this weekend and early next week, warming into the 70s by late week. Morning lows will generally be in the 50s. We will have more on Thursday!