Matt Lanza

We topped out at 87 yesterday at Bush Airport, about 12 degrees above normal for the date. We have one more fairly hot day, two more real soupy days, and then the weather pattern for Southeast Texas should change beginning late Thursday or Friday. We abruptly shift into a cool and rather unsettled pattern heading into next week.

Today

Look for basically a repeat of what we experienced yesterday. Highs will be in the mid to upper-80s with a fair bit of humidity. We should see a good deal of sun with some passing clouds at times. Southerly winds of 10 to 15 mph and some gusts will be with us as well.

Thursday

Consider Thursday the start of the transition. It will again be warm and humid, with morning lows in the 60s, but we will see a good bit more cloud cover by Thursday mid-morning or afternoon. Coverage of showers with the approaching cold front should begin to increase Thursday afternoon, especially off to the north and west of Houston. Normally I would say the rain may arrive quicker, but with a lack of any Arctic air push behind this front, I would expect just a gradual increase in rain coverage from northwest to southeast through the latter half of the day. Basically, if you have Thursday afternoon plans, include an umbrella. Highs should be in the 80s but a couple degrees less warm than today.

Friday

A gray day. We are expecting periods of showers with some steadier rain possible at times. It will be noticeably cooler with temperatures generally holding in the 60s all day and perhaps a slow drop toward evening. Not exactly cold, but certainly cool. The cold front will push offshore and likely stall somewhere. That front will act as a focal point for disturbances in the coming days, so where it parks is important for rain chances.

Weekend and beyond

I’ll preface this by saying there is a high degree of uncertainty in the exact day to day weather between Saturday and Tuesday or Wednesday. We have several systems to watch that will be capable of delivering periods of rain. I would expect a showery, if not rainy Saturday, especially south of I-10. Our highest confidence is that Saturday may be a fairly damp day for Houston and points south.

Sunday could see breaks of sun north and clouds and showers south. Monday should see more clouds than sun with a rain chance. Tuesday would see clearing, followed by a quiet Wednesday and Thursday. But as I said, there is very little confidence in the specifics here.

Specifics, details, and more are a long way from being settled, but there is the potential for several inches of rain over the course of the next week, especially south of Houston. The best chance for this may be around Corpus Christi and up through Matagorda Bay to Freeport and Lake Jackson, with diminishing rain chances as you go north. But much will depend on exactly what happens with Thursday’s front, where it stalls out, and what it does into next week.

One thing we’re fairly confident in is that temperatures will remain cool due to this pattern. Look for highs in the 60s this weekend and early next week, warming into the 70s by late week. Morning lows will generally be in the 50s. We will have more on Thursday!

After lows in the 30s across many spots yesterday morning, we’re waking up a touch less cold today. Some clouds in the region and a return to onshore winds have ensured we begin the transition back to something less winter-like and more autumn-like for a few days.

Rain will be at a premium over the next week or so, with our best rain chances probably holding off until next Thursday or so ahead of what should be our next cool front.

Today and the weekend

So if you have any plans this weekend, we don’t expect any real complications to impact you weather-wise. Look for highs in the mid-70s today and upper-70s to around 80 or so on Saturday and Sunday. Morning lows will be in the 50s tomorrow and probably close to 60 or so on Sunday. Winds look fairly light. We may see a little additional cloud cover Saturday and especially Sunday, but no rain is currently expected.

Monday and Tuesday

We’ll transition back more to an early autumn type pattern here with highs in the 80s and partly sunny skies. Morning lows will also bulk up into the 60s. Rain chances remain fairly low, though a couple isolated showers or sprinkles cannot be ruled out. Weather should not impede voting on Tuesday.

Mid to late week

Wednesday is going to be very warm and very humid. Look for morning lows well into the 60s and daytime highs well into the 80s. Can we print out a rogue 90 degree day? I would give it about a 15 percent chance. We’re more likely to hit 86 to 88, but you definitely cannot rule out 90 entirely. Houston has never recorded a 90 degree day in November, so this would be decidedly abnormal. We’ll see.

A cold front will likely end the hotter weather by Thursday or Friday, with highs backpedaling into the 70s and lows in the 50s. There’s a bit of uncertainty beyond the front regarding whether we clear out entirely or see lingering clouds and rain chances. But it will turn cooler. More Monday!

All is quiet across the area this morning, but yesterday definitely saw some heavy rain north and west of Houston, as a relatively persistent area of rainfall setup shop. This dumped as much as 3 to 6 inches over a fairly wide area northwest of Houston.

Much of the area at least saw some rain yesterday. We should at least see some more rain today, perhaps in those same areas.

Today

Look for another day of sporadic showers and thunderstorms across the area. Again, the best odds favor areas north and west of Houston for the most rain today, but rain could fall south and east as well, much like we saw on Thursday. It will remain warm and humid with highs well into the 80s.

Weekend

Both Saturday and Sunday will continue to provide warm and humid weather for the area. We’ll see lows in the 70s and highs in the mid-80s on both days. Showers will be possible, but I think the coverage and intensity will ramp down some from what we saw yesterday and what we will see today.

Monday

Alright, the latest the timing on Monday’s cold front brings it through Houston just after midnight, which will lead to plunging temperatures well before sunrise on Monday. In the afternoon, we will struggle to get past the upper-50s with a gusty north wind ramping up. If you have loose Halloween decorations, it’s probably a good idea to try to secure them as best as possible on Sunday afternoon. Anyway, there will be showers or some thunderstorms with the front as it pushes in, and clouds, light rain, and drizzle may persist for awhile through the day.

Tuesday

Look for lows in the 40s on Tuesday morning. Expect a breezy to windy day, especially near the coast, where winds of 20 to 30 mph or stronger are likely. We will see a good bit of cloud cover lingering on Tuesday, and that may keep temperatures in the 40s for much of the morning before some afternoon clearing allows us to warm into the 50s. For Houston, our coolest Halloween afternoon occurred in 1925 when we only hit 47 degrees. More recently, back in 2019 we only mustered 57 degrees, the 4th coolest on record. We may fall just short of that on Tuesday. The record low for Halloween is safe at 29 degrees back in 1993. For evening festivities, look for temperatures nudging back into the upper-40s or near 50 degrees with continued breezy conditions. Bundle up, kids!

Rest of next week

The rest of the week looks great. Expect sunshine Wednesday through Friday with temperatures slowly nudging back warmer. We should be in the upper-50s to near 60 on Wednesday, mid-60s on Thursday, and low-70s on Friday with morning lows in the 40s or upper-30s all three days. Sublime autumn weather in my opinion! We will probably hear about frost advisories at some point well to the north of Houston, particularly between Lufkin, Madisonville, and College Station. Even an isolated sheltered location or two up that way has a chance at a light freeze also. But this is highly unlikely in the Houston metro.

Look, it’s late October now, and it’s decidedly autumn. The weather and calendar this weekend are somewhat out of sync, but, you know, that’s to be expected this year. Anyway, the weather looks warm to hot in the coming days, but that will not stop us from celebrating the end of the extreme heat we all endured this summer. Please do join us on Sunday at the lovely McGovern Gardens in Hermann Park. It should be a good time. You can pregame with us before the Astros game 6 at 7 PM! Ain’t no party like a Scranton Space City Weather party!

Today

Friday will be one of those days where the right combination of ingredients comes together to potentially allow us to test records. Our official record high in Houston is 93° from 2004, and we currently have a forecast of 91° at IAH, where official readings are taken. Why? We’ll have a combination of an offshore wind, decreasing humidity, sunshine, and a relatively hot air mass in place. Drier air heats up more efficiently than more humid air, and thus we should easily make 90 or better today. Even though it’s cool this morning, you will want shorts this afternoon.

One other note: Today is also an ozone action day, meaning poor air quality so those of you that need to take precautions on those days should be exercising them today.

Weekend

Both weekend days should be fine with sun and clouds. Sunday may have more clouds than sun as the day progresses. Otherwise, look for a pleasant start to Saturday with 50s and 60s and generally low humidity. We’ll warm to 90 degrees or a touch hotter again. With clouds and increasing humidity on Sunday, look for a warmer morning with mid-60s or warmer, followed by a slightly less hot afternoon (mid to upper 80s). Saturday should see mostly light winds with a bit of a breeze out of the south on Sunday.

Next week

The forecast for next week will be dominated by a stalled out front over the Central U.S. and moisture being funneled up from the Pacific. The combination should produce locally heavy rain in interior Texas up through the Plains next week with several inches. Locally, the forecast is a bit trickier. With most forcing for storms off to our north and west, those areas may hog the majority of the moisture for most of the week, leaving us partly sunny and very warm and humid with just some scattered showers.

Basically, I would say to expect a couple periods of showers or storms next week, with the highest odds off to the north and west of the Houston area. But places like Abilene, Wichita Falls, and probably the DFW Metroplex would be more likely to see heavier, more organized rains next week. We’ll have more for you Monday!