Matt Lanza

Well, I sure hope you were able to get outside this weekend. For some people it was perfect weather, while others may have found it a little cool. Whatever the case, it was nice to step outside and not feel like my face was about to melt off. Surely, the next question some people have is whether or not this was just “faux fall,” and we see a return to a lengthy stretch of warm and humid weather again. The answer is not quite! More autumnal weather is on the way, and for some folks, more rain is on the way too.

Today

One thing that did surprise me a little this weekend was the resiliency of the high cirrus cloud deck. It certainly made for some nice skies, but it also diminished the sun a bit. We’ll likely see more of that today, especially south of I-10. North of I-10 should be basically fully sunny. It should be at least a little warmer overall, with highs in the low to mid-80s.

Tuesday

We’ll see a notable uptick in humidity here as onshore winds kick in, bringing in a relatively moist air mass. In addition, clouds will likely increase, and there should be at least some chance for a few mostly light showers, especially near the coast. Morning lows will generally be in the 60s, with highs in the low-80s.

Wednesday into Thursday

The forecast gets interesting here. Pacific-driven moisture courtesy of Tropical Storm Lidia and Tropical Storm Max will surge across Mexico and toward South Texas on Wednesday. This will all combine with a developing area of low pressure in the Bay of Campeche that will lift north and then quickly east across the Gulf. This should mean periods of rain or showers and a chance of thunderstorms. However, whether that’s in the Houston area or along the coast and offshore is still a bit fluid. North of I-10 should expect minimal rainfall. South of I-10 will see upward of a quarter-inch to perhaps as much as an inch near the coast. The heaviest rainfall is likely to occur from Matagorda Bay south to Corpus Christi and the Valley.

Personally, I think the rainfall forecast above is a bit generous. I might shift the gradient 25 to 50 miles south based on the overnight model data. We’ll fine tune this tomorrow when we get a better idea of exactly how far north rain should get. Look for variable highs on Wednesday, with perhaps 80 or so north and 70s south depending on how much rain occurs. Wednesday may also have a bit of a breeze as well out of the east-southeast.

We’ll see gradual clearing Thursday, though there may be another chance of showers late in the day. High temps should be back in the mid-80s most places.

Friday

We’ll peak temperatures on Friday with a bit of drier air. It will be start very warm and humid with mid to morning lows in the 70s. The humidity may drop some during the day with offshore winds, but that will allow temperatures to warm well into the 80s.

Cooler air arrives Friday night into Saturday, ushering in another delightful fall air mass for the weekend. This front won’t have much moisture with it, so while a shower or two will be possible, most places will likely remain dry.

Weekend & annular solar eclipse

This weekend looks like a repeat with highs in the 70s, lows in the 50s, and low humidity. Just super nice autumn weather. For now, the cloud cover situation for Saturday’s annular solar eclipse looks great with most of Texas in the clear (the exception may be the Rio Grande Valley and Panhandle).

I will say that I want to be a little cautious after this weekend’s more abundant high clouds, but at this point things look great. Fingers crossed. We’ll watch this closely through the week.

We have two problems to solve right now in Houston. There’s the abnormally hot weather (September is on pace to obliterate the previous warmest September on record), although I’m sure temperatures are now such that some of you are okay with things. There is also the drought. We’ve been nibbling away at that over the last 2 weeks or so with some daily showers and storms popping up across the area (including a spectacularly photogenic one yesterday).

Yes, we’ve knocked back the extent of exceptional drought from 76 percent coverage at its worst to 56 percent today, but that’s the hydrologic equivalent of getting a gratuitously indulgent slice of chocolate cake, having one small bite, and calling it a day. There is still work to be done.

More likely will be a legitimate cooldown next week, although that could come with some rain too. Eric said yesterday that if it does not happen, it’s my fault. I could not agree more. Let’s dive in.

Today through Monday

This forecast is pretty basic. Expect sun and clouds each day with highs in the mid, perhaps upper-90s in a few spots (near 90 or so at the coast), with lows in the mid-70s.

Each day will carry a very, very low chance of showers north of I-10. Better (but not high) chances will exist south of I-10, especially near the coast, down toward Matagorda Bay, and into the Victoria Crossroads. Most places won’t get wet, but those that do could see some locally heavy, brief downpours.

Tuesday and Wednesday

As moisture increases and the “trigger” for showers edges a little closer to our area, we could see slightly better chances of isolated to scattered showers and storms here. We’ll probably be talking about highs in the low to mid-90s, with lows still in the 70s.

Cold front!!!!

While models differ on the exact timing of things, it appears that sometime between Thursday and Saturday our first bonafide cold front of the season will finally push through the area.

It should hopefully deliver some showers and storms, followed by cooler and much less humid air. We’re probably looking at highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s along with comfortable humidity most days beyond Friday if all goes according to plan. Fingers crossed. We’ll have an update on this for you Monday.

We got an update from the U.S. Drought Monitor yesterday that would factor in the bulk of the rain we received in our recent scattershot rounds of liquid gold last week. Suffice to say, it did not do much to alleviate the ongoing drought.

Keep in mind, the way these maps are calculated does not always adequately represent the current soil or dryness or greenness of your grass situation. The drought maps focus more on longer term issues related to drought. Those don’t disappear overnight. If we can get some more rain later this weekend or Monday, that will go a short way to helping things a little.

“So, shut up, Matt, and tell me if we will see rain!”

Today & Saturday

First, the heat. The 97° officially reached at IAH Airport on Thursday ties for the 7th latest date we’ve recorded that high of a temperature. The latest? October 2, 1938. That’s not a record I feel like breaking. Unfortunately, it will not get much better today or tomorrow. Look for highs in the mid to upper-90s in the area. Someone might hit 100°, which is just a <chef’s kiss> on this summer. Mornings will be warm and humid, with mid-70s. Equinox? More like Weakquinox.

Rain chances look meager both today and tomorrow, but they are not zero. Hopefully a few spots can squeeze out a cooling downpour.

Sunday

More of the same as Friday and Saturday. Rain chances may be a bit higher in the northern reaches of the Houston region, especially late in the day. But still I would say, at best, isolated to scattered activity.

Monday

So, let’s try to get excited about Monday. That is, if you want rain. We continue to see signs that a cold front will cross into our area, acting as a focal point for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon. Let’s set some boundaries here. I do not believe that everyone will get meaningful rain from this, however I do believe most people will get at least some rain.

Great news, for sure. Let’s just hope it actually happens as planned. Monday’s temperatures should be warm to start (mid to upper-70s), but the daytime should not be as hot as Friday through Sunday. Look for low-90s before the storms start popping up. Areas south and west of Houston, furthest from the front will probably do mid-90s again. You do need to watch these fronts sometimes because the compressional heating that occur just out ahead of them can sometimes lead to hotter than expected weather. So folks in Brazoria or Fort Bend Counties southward could see another pretty darn hot one Monday before storms (hopefully) roll in.

Tuesday and beyond

The biggest question surrounding next week’s forecast is how far south the front gets before it runs out of gas. If it can push offshore enough and dissolve out there, we likely see some pleasant mornings (low-70s) and lower humidity with highs in the upper-80s to low-90s. But it would also be fairly dry. If the front breaks up at the coast or just inland, we’d still see some cooler temperatures and lower humidity, but not as much as we saw earlier this week. But we’d also keep slight rain chances around most days. So, pick your poison I guess. We’ll watch the forecast through the weekend and see how it evolves.

As for the first true fall front? I’m not yet optimistic or ready to commit to anything, but I do see signs in the October 6 to 10 period that perhaps something could begin to stir. At the least, it’s the most hopeful signal I’ve seen this month, so that’s worth something. Stay tuned.

Tropics

Potential Tropical Cyclone 16 will bear down on the East Coast this weekend with tropical storm conditions, tidal flooding, and heavy rain expected from the Carolinas through New Jersey or Long Island. A system in the deep Atlantic may pass just north of the islands next week. For us? The Gulf looks very, very quiet. Be sure to visit our companion site, The Eyewall for a full rundown on tropical doings.

Did it rain on you yesterday? Or were you, like me, left jaded? I’ll tell you one place that saw some rain: Sienna and Arcola on the Brazoria/Fort Bend County line. Radar estimates that nearly 7 inches fell just west of Hwy 6 and 288 in Arcola.

Heavy rain also delivered for Spring, Humble, and Kingwood with a healthy 1 to 4 inches or so. One of the storms up that way prompted a few warnings and did produce a 46 mph wind gust at Bush Airport. The 2.19″ at Bush were the most in a day since we essentially did just that (2.18″) on July 6th. The most widespread heavy rain fell across southern Hardin County to our east, back into portions of northern Liberty County.

Anyway, Matt here today, and thanks to Eric for covering me on a couple recent Fridays as I’ve been knee deep in shepherding The Eyewall along.

Between Idalia and Lee, we’ve had some stuff to talk about. Thankfully, the Gulf looks quiet for the foreseeable future. I want to thank y’all for your support of the site. It’s been fun to watch it slowly grow and pick up a few new dedicated followers from places like SoCal, Florida, and the Canadian Maritimes. Please continue to spread the word to your out of town friends and family.

Today

Rome wasn’t built in a day, and droughts don’t end in a day. Usually. But, hey, for the third day or so in a row, we have rain chances on the menu today. Are they high rain chances? Not especially. But expect at least some scattered showers or isolated thunderstorms with downpours. The best odds may be to the south and west of Houston. As has been the case this week, those downpours could add up quickly in spots and cause some brief street flooding. We will watch to see if perhaps a more vigorous disturbance could produce a more organized area of storms at some point later today to deliver a little more widespread rain. But that is not certain.

Clouds will keep temperatures in check in spots. With rain, expect upper-70s to low-80s. With sun, expect near 90 degrees or a little hotter, with plenty of humidity to boot.

Saturday

Look for yet another day with rain chances. Again, many folks will see nothing. But just the fact that we have strung together multiple consecutive days with showers in the area is nice to see again. Anyway, I think the focus of rainfall tomorrow may be south of I-10 or southeast of Hwy 59/I-69 and toward the coast. But we’ll see. Expect morning lows in the 70s and highs of about 90 degrees or so.

Sunday

I would go forth with whatever plans you have Sunday without worrying too much. There will be a slight rain chance, especially toward the coast as a weak front pushes offshore. This should lower the humidity some and allow us to peak in the low-90s after a morning in the 70s.

Next week

The good news is that the Sunday front will actually yield a relatively pleasant morning Monday and perhaps Tuesday. Look for morning lows around 70 or so (with a few spots in the 60s) followed by daytime highs in the low-90s.

Temperatures heat back up for the middle and end of next week and we may temporarily see rain chances return. We continue to see virtually no sign of a legitimate autumn cold front over the next 10 to 14 days. So late summer continues, perhaps into the end of September.