Matt Lanza

Look, it’s late October now, and it’s decidedly autumn. The weather and calendar this weekend are somewhat out of sync, but, you know, that’s to be expected this year. Anyway, the weather looks warm to hot in the coming days, but that will not stop us from celebrating the end of the extreme heat we all endured this summer. Please do join us on Sunday at the lovely McGovern Gardens in Hermann Park. It should be a good time. You can pregame with us before the Astros game 6 at 7 PM! Ain’t no party like a Scranton Space City Weather party!

Today

Friday will be one of those days where the right combination of ingredients comes together to potentially allow us to test records. Our official record high in Houston is 93° from 2004, and we currently have a forecast of 91° at IAH, where official readings are taken. Why? We’ll have a combination of an offshore wind, decreasing humidity, sunshine, and a relatively hot air mass in place. Drier air heats up more efficiently than more humid air, and thus we should easily make 90 or better today. Even though it’s cool this morning, you will want shorts this afternoon.

One other note: Today is also an ozone action day, meaning poor air quality so those of you that need to take precautions on those days should be exercising them today.

Weekend

Both weekend days should be fine with sun and clouds. Sunday may have more clouds than sun as the day progresses. Otherwise, look for a pleasant start to Saturday with 50s and 60s and generally low humidity. We’ll warm to 90 degrees or a touch hotter again. With clouds and increasing humidity on Sunday, look for a warmer morning with mid-60s or warmer, followed by a slightly less hot afternoon (mid to upper 80s). Saturday should see mostly light winds with a bit of a breeze out of the south on Sunday.

Next week

The forecast for next week will be dominated by a stalled out front over the Central U.S. and moisture being funneled up from the Pacific. The combination should produce locally heavy rain in interior Texas up through the Plains next week with several inches. Locally, the forecast is a bit trickier. With most forcing for storms off to our north and west, those areas may hog the majority of the moisture for most of the week, leaving us partly sunny and very warm and humid with just some scattered showers.

Basically, I would say to expect a couple periods of showers or storms next week, with the highest odds off to the north and west of the Houston area. But places like Abilene, Wichita Falls, and probably the DFW Metroplex would be more likely to see heavier, more organized rains next week. We’ll have more for you Monday!

After a fairly nice Thursday, today will see us harken back to summer a bit, with hotter temperatures and relatively high humidity. But a cool front tonight will end that quickly, leading to a lengthy stretch of decent weather.

Today

Well, hot it will be. Look for upper-80s. The cold front is expected to get into the Brazos Valley and College Station in the afternoon hours and into the Houston area in the evening hours.

That should prevent any real cool risk, though I suppose areas north and west of Houston could see cooler temps late this afternoon if the front picks up some speed. This front looks fairly moisture starved, so any rain showers would be very isolated and probably on the weaker side. Otherwise, look for partly cloudy skies today and tonight.

Saturday

For eclipse viewing in the Houston area, I think we’re good! Our maximum coverage of the sun in Houston will be just before Noon. As such, here is a cloud cover forecast for 12 PM CT tomorrow from the National Blend of Models:

We look good in the Houston area with just a few high clouds. The only real trouble spots in Texas may be the Panhandle and the Rio Grande Valley upstream from McAllen. Corpus and Brownsville may also be 50/50 tomorrow. My pick of the litter might be Midland. But most of the southern and western halves of the state, closest to the path of total annularity will have at least some view. Remember the eye protection!

As far as comfort goes, it’s nearly perfect looking Saturday with highs near 80 degrees and low humidity. There will be a bit of a breeze with 20 to 25 mph gusts inland and perhaps 30 mph gusts offshore.

Sunday through Wednesday

It doesn’t get much better than this. We expect sunshine, highs in the 70s, lows in the 50s, and low humidity for most of this period. We could nudge up near 80 again by Wednesday, but regardless of the nitty gritty specifics, it looks absolutely delightful.

Beyond Wednesday we’ll add back some humidity and warmer temperatures. I think our next crack at rain will be next Thursday or Friday with another cold front. But whether that’s isolated or scattered is still an open question.

Well, I sure hope you were able to get outside this weekend. For some people it was perfect weather, while others may have found it a little cool. Whatever the case, it was nice to step outside and not feel like my face was about to melt off. Surely, the next question some people have is whether or not this was just “faux fall,” and we see a return to a lengthy stretch of warm and humid weather again. The answer is not quite! More autumnal weather is on the way, and for some folks, more rain is on the way too.

Today

One thing that did surprise me a little this weekend was the resiliency of the high cirrus cloud deck. It certainly made for some nice skies, but it also diminished the sun a bit. We’ll likely see more of that today, especially south of I-10. North of I-10 should be basically fully sunny. It should be at least a little warmer overall, with highs in the low to mid-80s.

Tuesday

We’ll see a notable uptick in humidity here as onshore winds kick in, bringing in a relatively moist air mass. In addition, clouds will likely increase, and there should be at least some chance for a few mostly light showers, especially near the coast. Morning lows will generally be in the 60s, with highs in the low-80s.

Wednesday into Thursday

The forecast gets interesting here. Pacific-driven moisture courtesy of Tropical Storm Lidia and Tropical Storm Max will surge across Mexico and toward South Texas on Wednesday. This will all combine with a developing area of low pressure in the Bay of Campeche that will lift north and then quickly east across the Gulf. This should mean periods of rain or showers and a chance of thunderstorms. However, whether that’s in the Houston area or along the coast and offshore is still a bit fluid. North of I-10 should expect minimal rainfall. South of I-10 will see upward of a quarter-inch to perhaps as much as an inch near the coast. The heaviest rainfall is likely to occur from Matagorda Bay south to Corpus Christi and the Valley.

Personally, I think the rainfall forecast above is a bit generous. I might shift the gradient 25 to 50 miles south based on the overnight model data. We’ll fine tune this tomorrow when we get a better idea of exactly how far north rain should get. Look for variable highs on Wednesday, with perhaps 80 or so north and 70s south depending on how much rain occurs. Wednesday may also have a bit of a breeze as well out of the east-southeast.

We’ll see gradual clearing Thursday, though there may be another chance of showers late in the day. High temps should be back in the mid-80s most places.

Friday

We’ll peak temperatures on Friday with a bit of drier air. It will be start very warm and humid with mid to morning lows in the 70s. The humidity may drop some during the day with offshore winds, but that will allow temperatures to warm well into the 80s.

Cooler air arrives Friday night into Saturday, ushering in another delightful fall air mass for the weekend. This front won’t have much moisture with it, so while a shower or two will be possible, most places will likely remain dry.

Weekend & annular solar eclipse

This weekend looks like a repeat with highs in the 70s, lows in the 50s, and low humidity. Just super nice autumn weather. For now, the cloud cover situation for Saturday’s annular solar eclipse looks great with most of Texas in the clear (the exception may be the Rio Grande Valley and Panhandle).

I will say that I want to be a little cautious after this weekend’s more abundant high clouds, but at this point things look great. Fingers crossed. We’ll watch this closely through the week.

We have two problems to solve right now in Houston. There’s the abnormally hot weather (September is on pace to obliterate the previous warmest September on record), although I’m sure temperatures are now such that some of you are okay with things. There is also the drought. We’ve been nibbling away at that over the last 2 weeks or so with some daily showers and storms popping up across the area (including a spectacularly photogenic one yesterday).

Yes, we’ve knocked back the extent of exceptional drought from 76 percent coverage at its worst to 56 percent today, but that’s the hydrologic equivalent of getting a gratuitously indulgent slice of chocolate cake, having one small bite, and calling it a day. There is still work to be done.

More likely will be a legitimate cooldown next week, although that could come with some rain too. Eric said yesterday that if it does not happen, it’s my fault. I could not agree more. Let’s dive in.

Today through Monday

This forecast is pretty basic. Expect sun and clouds each day with highs in the mid, perhaps upper-90s in a few spots (near 90 or so at the coast), with lows in the mid-70s.

Each day will carry a very, very low chance of showers north of I-10. Better (but not high) chances will exist south of I-10, especially near the coast, down toward Matagorda Bay, and into the Victoria Crossroads. Most places won’t get wet, but those that do could see some locally heavy, brief downpours.

Tuesday and Wednesday

As moisture increases and the “trigger” for showers edges a little closer to our area, we could see slightly better chances of isolated to scattered showers and storms here. We’ll probably be talking about highs in the low to mid-90s, with lows still in the 70s.

Cold front!!!!

While models differ on the exact timing of things, it appears that sometime between Thursday and Saturday our first bonafide cold front of the season will finally push through the area.

It should hopefully deliver some showers and storms, followed by cooler and much less humid air. We’re probably looking at highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s along with comfortable humidity most days beyond Friday if all goes according to plan. Fingers crossed. We’ll have an update on this for you Monday.