Matt Lanza

Yesterday’s drought monitor report was pretty much what you’d expect for the Houston area. Drought coverage doubled in size from half the region to the entire region. Severe drought quadrupled from just over 10 percent coverage to over 40 percent coverage, basically along and to the right of Highway 59.

We’ve seen burn bans expand this week, and I believe we’re getting closer to seeing more water restrictions and conservation measures take hold across the area. Tomball entered that category this week, and I assume other subdivisions and communities are just about there as well.

Wildfire risk remains high to very high over much of the area today and again tomorrow. We may see some modest improvement in that next week with slightly less wind. That would help (though the breeze has certainly helped make the evenings a bit more pleasant at least!).

So, today let’s focus on the chances we can maybe, possibly, potentially, perhaps, conceivably see some rain chances next week.

Today through Tuesday

Sunny, hot, breezy this weekend but a bit less next week, and highs in the low-100s and lows near 80 or in the low-80s. Each day. Today through Tuesday. Excessive heat warnings and/or heat advisories will be likely every day.

Yesterday was our 12th straight 100 degree day, as we hit 103° at Bush Airport. That’s Houston’s third longest streak on record. The next one to catch will be 14 straight days, set in 1980. The top streak of 24 days from 2011 will be challenging but the chances of eclipsing it surely are a good deal greater than zero. We still lag total 100 degree day records by a lot, however.

Beyond Tuesday

A lot of y’all have said our reports this week have been downright depressing. They have been! We’ve always promised honesty with you, and there’s been little sign of any real rain or “less hot” weather. So here’s the deal. I want to be optimistic about mid to late next week and some (modest) rain chances. But we’ve seen this happen more than once this year, where modeling sort of relaxes the pattern for a period and then it comes roaring back. So here’s our hint of optimism, but in reality, I would not be out buying umbrellas.

High pressure over the next 5 days is going to anchor near or over Texas. But after about next Tuesday, the high retreats into the Southwest as a pretty aggressive trough digs into the Great Lakes. This “weakens” the ridge over Texas some. By next Friday, any goodwill we have garnered is gone and it’s back to heat, but for those few days at least we might weaken things enough to at least allow for sea breeze showers each afternoon. Here’s a forecast upper level map on Thursday afternoon.

That’s only going to give us about a 20 to maybe 25 percent chance of afternoon showers. But that’s about 20 to 25 percent higher than right now. So I want to be realistic about the chances of any change (which is to say, it’s quite low), but I also want to try and keep us somewhat positive! We’ll see how this holds up over the weekend. Meanwhile, please stay cool and hydrated this weekend!

The excessive heat warning is back for most inland counties in the Houston area, including Houston-proper, with high temperatures expected firmly above 100 degrees. Yesterday was 101 at both Bush and Hobby, but yesterday was also notable in that the 83 degree low temperature at IAH matched our warmest low of 2023 and ties with 10 other dates for the second warmest low temperature on record there.

Additionally, Eric noted that yesterday would be a bit breezier, and it was. I was out on the east side of the region for work, and I have to tell you, those onshore winds were ripping. Hopefully that provided a little relief in spots. With high pressure sitting over us, and a stalled out front across the Red River, we actually are ending up in a situation that’s a little reminiscent of springtime, albeit with August temperatures. Low pressure formed over northwest Texas, and the gradient (or difference in pressure) between that low pressure and surface high pressure off to our south and east has led to windier conditions than we’ve seen in some time.

For Bush Airport, yesterday was the windiest day (based on average wind speed) since May 12th!

Factor in winds and drought and dry air during the afternoons, and we continue to have a high risk of wildfires across a large chunk of Texas, including the Houston area. We’ve seen some sudden and erratic fire behavior at times from new starts in central Texas as well as in Louisiana. Today’s fire outlook from the Texas A&M Forest Service continues to show high or very high risk of wildfires in the northern half of the Houston metro area. Please use extreme caution across the entire area. The last time it was this windy in the area, the soil had a good deal of moisture. Things have really dried out since.

As far as the weather goes, it remains a pretty easy forecast.

Today and Friday

Sunny, hot, and breezy with highs in the low-100s and lows in the low-80s.

Saturday and Sunday

Sunny, hot, and breezy at times, with highs in the low-100s and lows in the low-80s.

Monday and Tuesday

Sunny and hot, with highs in the low-100s and lows near 80 degrees.

There is nothing in our models right now that makes us optimistic for a change in our pattern over the next 7 to 10 days. The good news is that one day it will change. We just can’t tell you what day right now.

In all seriousness, please take it easy and check on vulnerable friends and family. And once again, please use caution with respect to fire danger. Wildfire risk has not been to this level of seriousness in these parts of Texas since 2011.

I want to start my Friday post on a positive note. For weeks it feels like, Eric or myself have been writing these posts saying “we honestly don’t know when this excessive heat is going to meaningfully end.” We all know it will still be hot; it’s August after all, but it would be nice to tone it down just a little and maybe bring some rain back into the picture.

Eric has alluded to some potential change at the end of posts the last day or two, and I think we’re starting to build some legitimate momentum for this to occur. As we move beyond days 7 to 10, we begin to see a bit of a shift in the pattern showing up in modeling. High pressure in the Southwest & Texas shifts just a little more to the west. Heat is established now in the northwestern corner of the country and parts of Canada.

What this may do is help carve out a trough in the eastern half of the U.S. This is helpful for us in Texas because if this happens, it sort of puts us in the middle. Meaning, yes, it will still be fairly hot here, but not at record levels (think upper-90s instead of low-100s). It would also probably allow for the door to the Gulf to swing back open again and bring back at least some rain chances.

This is good news because drought continues to gradually worsen in Texas. The Climate Prediction Center hazards map for August 11-17 shows that many areas in Texas are at risk for “rapid onset drought.”

What exactly are they talking about? Essentially “flash drought,” which is what happened in the Central Plains in 2012. Drought quickly goes from kind of bad to very bad very fast. This can have implications on agriculture, water supply, lake levels, etc. We really don’t want to be dealing with a flash drought here, but given the recent issues with wildfire flare-ups, as Eric noted yesterday, we may already be descending that path.

This is why we are really, really hoping that what we see beyond day 10 can hold. Fingers crossed.

Today and the weekend

Meanwhile, yes, it’s more of the same. More heat. More advisories or excessive heat warnings. More humidity. Drink more water and try to limit outdoor exposure when possible. Please also check on your neighbors. There have been a couple instances of showers popping up in recent days in central part of the Houston area. That could happen again today or tomorrow, but consider yourself extremely lucky if it does.

Summer to date, we’ve just tied 2009 for the 3rd hottest on record in Houston. We are only a couple tenths of a degree behind 2011 for 2nd hottest, and over the next 7 to 10 days, we’re likely to go neck and neck with that summer. I suspect 2011 will pull away in the end, assuming our pattern does change some later in the month.

Next week

Copy and paste. More heat and more sun. Look for a slight rain chance Tuesday afternoon and then maybe again by Friday. Any changes that take place in the weather pattern would not materialize before next weekend. So buckle in.

We continue to slip back into drought across the Houston area, and all of Texas for that matter. Since last week’s update, the report issued on Thursday showed drought expand to cover over 35 percent of the Houston region, up 5.5 percent since a week ago. Meanwhile, severe drought has arrived for eastern parts of the metro area into Liberty and Chambers Counties.

Texas as a whole is seeing severe drought grow, up to almost 20 percent of the state now, up from about 6 percent a month ago. We’ve fortunately had some downpours pepper parts of the area this week, but it’s not even close to what we need to start reversing this process. We’re far off, and the upcoming weather pattern seems to suggest we are not getting any closer to resolution.

Today

More of the same. Look for high temperatures in the upper-90s and a few cooling showers here or there that you can thank your lucky stars, should you receive one.

Weekend

Hot! Rain chances drop from a paltry 15 percent or so on Friday to 10 to 15 percent on Saturday and 5 to 10 percent on Sunday. And even those values may be somewhat generous. Look for heat index values to tick upward into mid-100s again, possibly back to borderline heat advisory levels by Sunday afternoon. High temperatures will be in the upper-90s on Saturday and near 100 degrees Sunday and lows will be in the 70s to near 80 once again.

Next week’s heat

So if you follow the animating map below, you’ll see what’s happening next week. High pressure, or the core of the heat is established over the Southwest today. By Sunday, it will focus over Colorado, and by Tuesday, it’s centered right over Oklahoma and North Texas.

This means that the core of the heat will follow. We’re in for it next week, folks. No way to sugar coat this.

Models have generally been running too hot in terms of temperature this summer, but we’ve more than made up for it with humidity. Regardless, expect a string of heat advisories pretty much every day next week, with highs generally 99 to 102°, high humidity, and morning lows around 80 or so. It may not *feel* quite as bad as what we saw in June and earlier this month, but it won’t be off by much.

The high pressure ridging that focuses the heat may retreat back to the Southwest by next weekend, which should hopefully allow for just basic summer heat instead of the next level stuff we get next week. But I will say that some models are hinting that as the ridge pulls back to the Southwest it will strengthen further (yesterday’s 12z GFS model had the strongest modeled ridge I’ve seen on a model in my entire career). You can see that on the above animation. While extreme heat would stay to our west in that scenario, it may mean that we continue predominantly near 100 and mostly dry into the first full week of August. We shall see, but I see no reason to think any significant change will occur in Houston anytime soon.

So what of rain chances? Not great. We max out today and maybe next Saturday around 15 or so percent. That’s about the best we can muster right now, and even that may be a little generous. We know some folks, especially those that are in farming are hurting and need rain. We wish we had better news.