Matt Lanza

While we lacked any organized storms on Thursday, there were some neighborhoods that saw a smattering of rain. Other places saw rain or heard thunder in the middle of the night. Rain chances will stick with us through Sunday, but the focus is going to lean more to our south or along the coast.

Today & weekend

Radar this morning is buzzing from Houston to points southeast. Scattered downpours are with us.

As the day progresses, the focus will continue to likely back down to areas closer to the coast. Inland areas will still carry a chance for rain as well, but most modeling (and the morning radar imagery) suggests the bulk of today’s showers will remain south and east of Houston. Low rain chances doesn’t mean no rain chances, and any rain that does fall could be heavy and add up to an inch or so over a short amount of time.

Highs will be variable today, ranging from the 80s near the coast to the low or mid 90s inland and perhaps near 100 in the Brazos Valley.

One wild card in the forecast the next few days is what’s happening in the Gulf. Recall from Tuesday’s Eye on the Tropics post, we noted that the Gulf would be the area to at least monitor.

Well, as of Friday morning, there is a disturbance in the Gulf, and while it’s not currently expected to develop, what it may do is focus shower and storm activity offshore at times this weekend. The system itself will track toward Corpus Christi or Brownsville, pushing inland on Sunday. Assuming showers and storms do focus closer to that system, that could mean that we see relatively low rain chances in the Houston area for Saturday.

So, for both weekend days, expect to see sun, clouds, and at least a few showers and storms in the area. The greatest coverage and highest chances will be along the coast, with chances dropping off significantly as you head north or west from Highway 59. All of us have some chance at rain this weekend, but your odds increase south and east of Houston. Sunday could see higher rainfall coverage a little more inland as winds become less parallel to the coast and more onshore. But we’ll assess that through the weekend and keep you posted.

Total forecast rainfall this weekend (ending Monday morning) is shown below. While some areas will see more rain than this and others less, this map is a good average of where we think things will end up over the coming days.

Temperatures will be quite variable this weekend, perhaps only in the low 80s with clouds and showers on the coast, mid-90s in Houston proper, and upper 90s to near 100 well inland.

Early next week

We revert back to the usual Summer 2022 fare Monday through Wednesday of next week. We will likely see mid to upper-90s in Houston, with 100+ farther inland and lower 90s at the coast.

Rain chances should drop to about 10, maybe 20 percent each day.

Later next week

I’ve been watching the weather model forecasts all week with some curiosity for late next week or weekend. There have been hints of a cooler, wetter pattern arriving across all of Texas on both the GFS & European models. While it’s too soon to get into details, it does appear we will see a chance at a front in the area, some “less hot” (not cool) weather, and potentially some higher rain chances than normal by next weekend. We have been burned by these scenarios more than once this summer, so I’m not exactly jumping in with both feet here. But there’s a healthy amount of evidence that rain chances will pick up further in 8 to 10 days. More on this Monday.

We’ll keep you posted on the rain chances this weekend with a post or two tomorrow or Sunday.

The tropics are beginning to resemble what is more normal for this time of year, but the good news at least for us is that there’s nothing of immediate concern on our radar. We will start to pick up the cadence a bit, however.

Tropical outlook in a sentence

While no activity is anticipated to directly impact Texas, there are several disturbances we will be watching over the next week or so.

Invest 97L

The first item up for discussion is Invest 97L, way out in the deep Atlantic. Recall, invests are just a naming convention for disturbances that the National Weather Service believes merit further investigation. They cycle from 90 to 99 and then repeat. It allows us to see more data, input better data into our regular weather models, and see some initial runs of specialized tropical models on the disturbance.

In this case, Invest 97L is chugging along southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.

The satellite image above does not inspire much enthusiasm for this disturbance at this point. It has a minimal amount of thunderstorm activity (convection) around it, and it seems to be struggling a bit in a rather hostile Atlantic environment. If the first batch of wind shear near it does not completely shred it, the second batch just east of the islands probably will.

With this sort of wind shear around right now, it would seem that anything coming west is going to struggle. Weather models are split on how this looks over the next week or two, with the GFS knocking back the shear some, and the European model keeping the party going. But as long as this shear is in place, it’s good news for us with respect to anything coming off Africa.

The starting lineup

Speaking of, the “wave train” predicted to emerge off Africa is rather congested right now. We have two in line to emerge over the next week or so, and there’s a third in eastern Africa that should emerge sometime next week.

While these disturbances are lined up and ready to play in the Atlantic, again, the wind shear story is one that will have to change for any of them to have a chance. It’s also somewhat notable that there’s a pretty healthy gap between the first two disturbances and the third one. Quiet in late August would be rare. All in all, you probably couldn’t paint a better picture right now in the Atlantic; some activity to watch but nothing imminent.

Gulf update

Seasons like this can lull you to sleep, but I want to just close today with a look at the Gulf. Because of the situation in the Atlantic, the most risk in Texas for the rest of August may come from something much closer to home in the Gulf. Do we see anything worth watching? The short answer is no.

The longer answer is that we have a couple fronts trying to nudge their way to the coast over the next week or two that we should probably keep a side eye on. But at this point in time, there’s nothing signaling anything of legitimate concern.

We officially topped off at 101° yesterday for the third straight day, but we think the next few days will feature more tolerable temperatures, as rain chances inch upward. And it’s needed, as drought has expanded across the Houston area with 12 percent of the area in exceptional drought (level 4/4).

This was underscored by the deadly grass fire in the Cypress area yesterday. Grass fires can happen in the Houston area, so please use caution, even if you get a good bit of rain in the coming days.

Today

With a disturbance in the middle levels of the atmosphere moving toward Matagorda Bay, we are already seeing numerous showers and storms develop — over the Gulf.

As the day goes on, we’ll see rainfall expand onshore. I still don’t think everyone will see rain today, but most places near the coast should see showers, with more scattered coverage as you go inland from there. Storms should move slowly but steadily today, so areas with the most persistent rains could see an inch or two, while some neighborhoods will only hear distant thunder. But coverage will be greater than it has been in recent days.

With clouds and showers nearby, look for highs ranging from the upper 80s at the coast to low 90s in Houston to middle or upper 90s to the north and west.

Weekend

We’re going to maintain pretty healthy rain chances into Saturday. Again, not everyone will see rain tomorrow, but there should be coverage along the lines of what we see today; initially at the coast in the morning, spreading inland as the day progresses. Rain totals will range from nothing to an inch or two in the most persistent or slowest moving storms. Morning lows in the 70s will give way to daytime highs similar to today, with upper-80s to low-90s for Houston south and east, building to the upper-90s to near 100 or so from Columbus to College Station to Madisonville.

Sunday looks to see very similar weather, with hit and miss storms and temperatures about where they will be on Saturday.

Overall, rain totals should average a quarter to half-inch or so across the area, with some neighborhoods seeing several inches of rain and others seeing next to nothing. Yes, someone will end up disappointed from this period of higher rain chances, but it’s our best opportunity in some time.

Early next week

Rain chances should ebb heading into Monday and Tuesday, or at least be more co-located with the daily sea breeze off the Gulf. So coverage should diminish but not disappear completely. Temperatures will respond, back up to the low-90s along the Gulf, mid-90s in Houston, and near 100 well inland.

Later next week

The back half of next week is sort of in flux right now. One model (the Euro) is trying to bring a front into our area, which would enhance shower and storm coverage, though it would be unlikely to bring heat relief. The GFS keeps that away, but it does have higher rain chances later next week. Bottom line? We need a couple days to sort out late next week. But expect some rain chances and hot (but not extremely hot) weather.

Tropics

All remains quiet into early next week.

The Atlantic continues to lie dormant as August begins, which is good news for those hoping to avoid hurricanes. While the quiet is almost certainly going to break eventually, each day that goes by in August and September without a storm is a good day.

Tropical outlook in a sentence

Things remain quiet in the Atlantic basin with no real development expected over the next week.

Where to watch in August

As the calendar flips to August, we get into the heart of hurricane season. Basically, mid-August through late September is our marathon stretch. For Houston, our risks in August are still mostly close to home.

Using NOAA’s fantastic historic hurricane tool, we can get a sense of where to watch specific to Houston. Since the 1800s, Houston has had 10 hurricanes pass within 100 miles of downtown in the month of August. If you expand this to include tropical storms, the number increases to 17. With the exception of the 1915 storm (one that is worthy of a blog post of its own one day), all of August’s hurricanes in Houston formed in either the far western Caribbean or Gulf. In other words, while we watch the deep Atlantic and often discuss long-tracking hurricanes, they typically don’t impact us in August. That doesn’t mean they can’t, as 1915 proves, but our attention should be primarily focused close to home this month.

Yes, we’re talking tropical waves that struggle across the Atlantic, but hold together enough to ultimately develop in the Gulf. But we’re also looking for thunderstorm complexes that roll off the Gulf Coast into the open water. Or early season (weak) cold fronts that die off in the Gulf.

Notably, of the 17 total hurricanes and tropical storms (including Harvey) to pass within 100 miles of Houston in August, 15 formed in the Gulf or far western Caribbean. Again, closer to home is where the meat of our risk lies in August. This also means storms can form quickly, so it’s important to have a plan and preparations in place should something form.

Anything to watch now?

If we take a look across the Atlantic Ocean, there’s honestly not much happening at the moment.

We have a couple waves that are disorganized out in the open Atlantic, but none that is currently expected to develop as it comes west. There are a handful of model ensemble members trying to sort of develop one of the next couple waves that emerges off Africa. But as of today at least, no reliable model guidance shows anything in the Gulf over the next 7-10 days or more. That said, with fairly frequent storm clusters hovering near the northern Gulf over the next week or so, I wouldn’t entirely rule out something trying to weakly organize, though I think it would stay east of Texas.

But for August 2nd, this is about as good as it gets. The Atlantic remains stuck on 3 named storms and is now beginning to run below average for the season in terms of storm intensity. Still, using that metric, 92 percent of the season lies in front of us. It’s still far too early to declare the season a “bust,” and it’s critically important to remember that one storm can spoil the whole season for any given place. Alicia did just that to Houston in 1983, the 5th quietest hurricane season on record. So be wary of making bold declarations on August 2nd.