Matt Lanza

In brief: Mostly minimal shower and storm coverage this weekend in Houston will increase by a good bit next week. Additionally, we take a look at why this hurricane season has started quieter than most recent ones.

Hurricane season so far

The forecast is pretty straightforward today, and we’ll get into that below. First, today is June 20th, and to this point I don’t think we’ve said a word at Space City Weather about hurricanes or tropical storms. It’s a refreshing change of pace after recent seasons. In fact, the last year that we did not have a storm in the Atlantic before July 1st was back in 2014. It’s been a while.

Meanwhile, the Pacific has been churning out storms apace this season, with five so far. Of course, only one of them (Erick, which just made landfall yesterday) was a big storm. Still, the conditions to this point this hurricane season have strongly favored the Pacific. You can thank dust and wind shear in the Atlantic for one, but those things aren’t abnormal, even in recent Junes. So there has to be more at play here.

We often talk about the “background state” of the atmosphere. You have individual tropical waves and systems and such through the year, but the background state is important. Are the overarching global weather conditions favorable for development or unfavorable? So far this June, we’ve had the majority of rising air, or a “favorable” background state for tropical development sitting over Central America. Rising air is what helps thunderstorms to develop. Since tropical weather generally moves east to west across the planet, this has meant that most seedlings for development are being planted in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Sinking air sits over Africa and extends all the way across to the Caribbean islands. Sinking air tends to suppress cloud development and dry the air out a bit. By the time any waves can really get going, they more than likely end up over land or kicked into the Pacific.

Over the next couple weeks, this pattern is unlikely to change a whole heck of a lot, but we may start to see slightly more favorable conditions emerge over Africa or the far eastern Atlantic by early July. That said, there are no guarantees that actually means anything. Realistically, the next 7 to 10 days look calm and the 10-to-14-day period has no signs of meaningful change yet.

We do still expect an average to above average hurricane season; June’s activity has no real correlation to the rest of the season, so you can’t decipher any relationships. But when you can get a hassle-free month in hurricane season, you take it without complaints.

Bottom line: You still have time to prepare for hurricane season.

Today

We had a slightly higher coverage of showers yesterday than we did Wednesday, and today should be fairly similar. Most of us will stay dry, but some areas could see up to an inch of rain or so in a cooling downpour. We hit 95 yesterday officially, and we should make a run for that again today.

Weekend

The coverage of showers may actually decrease some this weekend. Both Saturday and Sunday carry something like a 15 to 20 percent chance of a shower. Doesn’t mean it won’t rain, but it does mean the odds aren’t high! Sunday probably carries a slight edge over Saturday in terms of higher shower coverage. Temperatures will be steady with low to mid 90s for highs and mid to upper 70s for lows away from the coast, with low 80s at the coast.

Next week

While this week was pretty quiet after Monday, next week should be a bit busier each day. We’ll probably carry 30 to 40 percent or even higher rain chances each afternoon, with pop up thunderstorms.

The culprit will actually be the high pressure system responsible for record heat that I’m sure you’ll hear about in the news across the Eastern U.S. As that anchors over the Appalachians, it will actually open the door to added Gulf moisture in Texas. Precipitable water (or how much moisture is available in the atmosphere) increases about 25 percent or more next week compared to today. That should help boost thunderstorm coverage each day.

The increased coverage of storms probably means we see more low-90s for highs and 70s for lows areawide next week.

In brief: Houston should have one more round of fairly widespread thunderstorms today, especially closer to the coast before things start to ease up closer to what’s typical for June. The relatively mild weather of this week will revert back to typical early summer fare heading into next week.

Today

After yesterday’s widespread rains, we get one more crack at the free car wash today. Things are starting off quiet this morning. That should change as the morning progresses. We’ll have a couple showers pop up along the coast over the next few hours. That will evolve into more numerous downpours and thunderstorms after 10 or 11 AM. This will be especially true along the coast and just inland, so Highway 59/I-69 is kind of our demarcation line today. South and east of there, higher rain risk, north and west lower rain risk.

A flood watch is in effect for coastal counties between Matagorda Bay and Louisiana today. These areas will be more susceptible to the heaviest rains. We will continue the Stage 1 flood alert as well for the rest of today. The Matagorda area was hardest hit yesterday, but today I would watch closer to Galveston and on the island for some healthy street flooding risks. These storms will be capable of dumping 2 to 4 inches in an hour.

So, storms become widespread at the coast after 10 or 11 AM and some additional more scattered activity spreads inland to the northwest from there. Rains should dissipate after sunset.

Saturday & Sunday

On Saturday, the trough that sits over the Arklatex today will move into the Mississippi Valley to our east. That should reduce the overall support for widespread thunderstorms like we’ve had since midweek.

What does this mean? Well, we should revert to more typical summertime weather. I would expect to see some showers or a couple thunderstorms develop each day from late morning through afternoon along the sea breeze as it slowly migrates inland from the Gulf. Many of us will see nothing at all, but a few will receive the often-welcome cooling downpour on Saturday or Sunday. Coverage may be a smidge higher on Sunday than Saturday. But anyone planning to partake in outdoor activities will probably only have to briefly dodge a shower, if anything at all.

It will warm back up though. We should reach the low-90s with a couple mid-90s here or there. Morning lows will be in the upper-70s.

Next week

High pressure over the Southwest will flatten out while a new area of high pressure builds west across the Gulf Coast toward Texas. We’ll probably keep Monday much like Sunday or Saturday, but Tuesday and Wednesday could see slightly increased rain chances before we probably shut off the sprinklers for a couple days later next week. Highs will generally remain in the lower-90s, close to normal for mid-June.

In brief: Thunderstorms impacting the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex and Abilene may hold together overnight and arrive in Houston near sunrise, bringing thunder, lightning, and locally heavy rain to parts of the area.

We’re barging into your Sunday evening briefly to just offer a heads up that thunderstorms may arrive in the Houston area on Monday morning. In North Texas, there’s a pretty potent severe weather risk tonight. We’ve seen gigantic hail in the area between the Caprock and the Metroplex. Those storms are now kind of congealing into a complex of thunderstorms that will continue to arc east and southeast, possibly arriving in Southeast Texas by Monday morning.

While we are not under severe weather risk tonight, there is a marginal risk posted for Monday (level 1/5) for Houston. These storms could hold together a bit as they approach. While we do not expect gigantic hail or extreme winds like they’ve seen in some spots up north, we could see some frequent lightning, gusty winds, and heavy downpours.

The HRRR model depicted above shows storms arriving right around 6 AM before dissipating by 8-9 AM. Don’t focus on specifics but rather the overall picture which shows a gradually weakening line of storms moving in. The most likely area to see organized thunderstorms is north of I-10 and west of I-45, but it’s possible that many of us see at least some rain or thunder by mid-morning Monday. Conditions would then calm down a bit Monday afternoon.

Bottom line: Don’t be shocked if you’ve got kids or pets running in a little before wake-up time tomorrow. We’d currently rate this about a 6 out of 10 on the excitable dog scale, with perhaps some higher values up toward Navasota or Huntsville or Conroe.

Eric will have more in the morning.

In brief: Saharan dust will give the Houston area a hazy sky this weekend, but it will also heat up too. Look for mid to upper-90s and very uncomfortable conditions. Next week sees a cooldown as rain chances return Monday and especially Tuesday, which could be a rather stormy day.

Today and Saturday

First off, welcome back to the Saharan dust that periodically impacts our region in June and July. You’ll notice it via some haze or kind of a milky appearance to the sky when clear. It will probably impact air quality to an extent as well, though most of the dust is suspended aloft. Couple that with building high pressure and you have a truly acrid pair of summer days here. As bad as August is here, some of these June days with high heat and haze can top the charts for most miserable of summer. Expect highs in the mid-90s, with a couple spots in the upper-90s perhaps on Saturday.

Rain chances look minor but not quite zero. Yesterday saw a couple small areas pick up 1 inch or more (Friendswood and between Rosharon and Angleton as examples), and that’s entirely possible today or tomorrow. But most likely, you’ll just stay hot and dry.

Sunday

We’ll close the weekend with close to the hottest weather so far this year, as highs will try to push into the mid to upper-90s. I think that the Saharan dust this weekend may be just enough to keep us more mid-90s than upper-90s. Whatever the case, it’s going to feel close to 105 degrees at times when you factor in the humidity.

So, yes, for the early season this is some excessive heat. Take it easy, as we’re not yet fully adapted to these sorts of temperatures. Normally we’re just above 90 degrees in early June, not above 95 degrees. So it’s hotter than it usually is for this time of summer. Again, a stray shower is possible.

Another note, morning lows are also going to be quite uncomfortable this weekend with upper 70s to around 80 or better near the coast. We’ve been routinely seeing morning lows this week in the 80s on parts of Galveston Island through San Luis Pass down to Surfside. Some parts of inner loop Houston may also struggle to get below 80 degrees at times this weekend.

Monday

We’ll start next week in a transition. The ridge over Texas will reorient into the West, while a deep trough carves itself out in the Great Lakes. This means a return to showers and thunderstorms in Texas. On Monday, we may still be a bit sparse in coverage with the rain, but chances definitely step up from Sunday. This will knock us back into the low or mid-90s for highs.

Tuesday and beyond

Tuesday may be a very unsettled day with strong thunderstorms and heavy rainfall. It’s still a bit too early to get too into the weeds on timing or how the storms will evolve, but this day has been flagged since early in the week as a potentially stormy one. Plan accordingly.

Rain totals may reach 1 to 3 inches in much of the area depending on exactly how things evolve. But there will be some risk for higher totals as well in localized spots. We’ll track how this evolves over the weekend and report back Monday. High temps may struggle to hit 90 on Tuesday.

The coverage of rain may back down after Tuesday but rain chances will remain fairly elevated through Wednesday and Thursday.