Matt Lanza

In brief: The first part of the weekend looks good, but we do expect Houston to see thunderstorms on Easter Sunday. Some of those storms could be strong, and that will be followed by more storm chances next week. Springtime is in force.

Today & Saturday

If you like hot weather, you’re in luck! There’s a pretty good chance we’ll hit or exceed 90 degrees today. It will also be quite breezy with south winds gusting up to 30 mph or so. Other than that, expect a mix of clouds and sun.

Saturday will be a bit cloudier. We’ll have a very mild morning, with lows probably not much below 75 degrees, close to a record for warmest April 19th morning. The day should again be breezy, mostly cloudy, and not quite as hot (but plenty humid). Highs should get into the mid or upper-80s. Shower chances look minimal, but I wouldn’t be shocked if the sky squeezed out a few raindrops here or there. Better shower chances will exist back toward Hill Country.

Easter Sunday

Sunday morning will be at least a little interesting. There should be a line or complex of thunderstorms near I-35 and the Austin area around sunrise. As those cross I-35 and move toward southeast Texas, they *should* begin to fall apart. Thus, the morning should be mostly cloudy with a couple showers here or there. As the boundary from that decaying line of storms hits Houston in the afternoon, we should see new thunderstorms blossom across the area. Some of these storms could be on the stronger side, and the SPC has us partially in a marginal (1/5) risk for severe weather on Sunday. This could yet change some between now and Sunday.

In addition to the potential for some strong to severe storms, atmospheric moisture levels will be more typical of mid-summer, so we could see some torrential downpours and localized street flooding crop up.

Eric and I will monitor this through tomorrow and have any updates for you on Sunday morning.

Next week

The cold front that will be responsible for the storms on Sunday is likely to stall out or wash out overhead. I would not be shocked to see the focus of thunderstorm activity on Monday to stay mostly east of Houston, closer to Lake Charles and Beaumont. But by Tuesday, that may swing back toward us, leading to scattered storms for Tuesday and possibly Wednesday or Thursday. This is the time of year where we can see afternoon storms blow up in portions of north or central Texas, organize into a cluster, and make their way toward us as complexes of storms called mesoscale convective systems (or MCS’s). I would not be at all shocked to see us have to wrangle that next week at least once. Bottom line: It looks unsettled.

It’s a bit early to get into potential specifics, but it does appear that next week will be active. The clouds and shower chances will hold daytime temperatures lower next week (more like low 80s), with warm nighttimes in the upper-60s to low-70s.

In brief: Sunshine for days in Houston.

To be honest, there is very little to discuss with respect to Houston’s weather forecast. We expect sunshine, warm and dry weather, and some ground ozone/air quality issues in the mornings and evenings over the next few days. Highs will be in the 80s with lows in the 50s and 60s. Beginning around Sunday, we’ll add some more humidity to the mix and slightly hotter weather with highs near 90 degrees by Monday and lows in the 60s. Overall, it looks great, albeit a little hotter than usual for April.

Our next meaningful rain chance likely does not come until the middle of next week, if then. More to come.

Hurricane season preview

With that out of the way, we know some of you were curious about our thoughts on Colorado State’s hurricane outlook released last week. I posted a bit about that over at our nationally-focused companion site, The Eyewall yesterday. I am posting most of it again here to reach our Houston audience.

Late last week, the team at Colorado State University issued their always hotly anticipated seasonal hurricane outlook for the Atlantic Basin. To clear this up at the beginning, their forecast calls for:

• 17 named storms (normal 14)
• 9 hurricanes (normal 7)
• 4 major hurricanes (normal 3)
• Accumulated cyclone energy: 155 (normal 123)

Nothing about this forecast on the surface is especially notable or alarming or fascinating. It’s simply a slightly above average forecast.

But what is somewhat notable about their forecast is some of the under the hood items they address. First, we are likely to be coming out of a La Niña event, something we discussed last back in February. But as the CSU team notes, we don’t know for sure if we’re headed for El Niño or ENSO neutral (La Nada) conditions. ENSO neutral summers combined with warm water temperatures “typically provides a more conducive dynamic and thermodynamic environment for hurricane formation and intensification.” In other words, hurricanes like those background conditions.

We do not yet have a “plume” from the C3S suite for April, but the March plume skewed slightly toward El Niño development.

If we get to El Niño conditions by late summer or fall, that does not guarantee that conditions will shift to become more hostile to hurricane development. But that may take the edge off a bit. However, if we “hang” near the neutral line or even in weak La Niña territory, any hostile conditions may be apt to stay away, ensuring a busier season than usual.

In addition to the forecast for named storms and such, the CSU team also does try to convert that seasonal outlook to a prediction of U.S. landfall risk. Indeed, with a more active season expected, the odds of a U.S. landfall are also higher. They have a 51 percent chance of a major hurricane landfall on the U.S. coast, compared to a historical average of 43 percent. The odds on the East Coast are 26 percent, compared to 21 percent typically. And in the Gulf, the landfall odds between the Florida Panhandle and Brownsville are 33 percent versus a 27 percent average.

According to the CSU team, all model guidance is pointing to an above-normal season. Water temperatures remain well above long-term averages across the Atlantic. As we noted earlier this year, however, this is not last year’s Atlantic sea-surface temperature profile. But it’s still quite warm.

From the map above, you’ll notice that the eastern Atlantic has cooled markedly since last year, however the Gulf, Caribbean, and northern Atlantic Ocean are all warmer. The fire that was burning all last summer in the eastern Atlantic is still smoldering, but it has been somewhat extinguished. The Gulf and Caribbean are another matter. The Gulf is warmer than 2024 by a good bit but still lags 2023. While the Caribbean was warmer than 2024 in March, it has since cooled some in April, taking it back under 2024 levels. Water temperature conditions can change quickly, but the bottom line is that the Atlantic, with the exception of the eastern basin are in the upper echelon of warm years at this point. The warmer overall waters in March in the eastern North Atlantic (north of the tropics), along with the warm Caribbean do correlate to active hurricane seasons.

The bottom line is that the underlying data support the idea of an active hurricane season — but not to the levels feared last year. But there aren’t very many red flags at this time arguing against that outcome. At least last year, we had the expectation of a developing La Niña to help grease the wheels a bit, and a slow development could have slowed the hurricane season a bit. This year? There’s no real glaring red flag that says the season will bust. But hurricane seasons always have surprises. Hopefully this year’s involves calm.

In brief: Other than some periods of poor air quality, the forecast for Houston is about as perfect for springtime as it gets with sunshine and low humidity through the weekend.

Today through Sunday

This is really going to extend an incredible stretch of sunny weather here in Houston. Very few clouds are expected over the next 5 days, with sunshine each day. You will see and hear about air quality advisories. The plentiful sunshine tends to interact with pollutants from cars and petrochemical facilities to produce ground ozone. You can read more about this here, but suffice to say, there will be periods of unhealthy air quality in the morning or evening, especially today, tomorrow, and Friday.

Temperatures will flop around a bit. We’ll do low 80s today, mid-80s tomorrow and Friday, low to mid-80s on Saturday, and then mid to upper-80s on Sunday. Morning lows will be in the 50s or 60s. Overall, this will also be a fairly pleasant, dry air mass. Humidity will increase some this weekend but not to levels that would be deemed uncomfortable.

Next week

Even next week the pattern doesn’t change a whole heck of a lot for Southeast Texas. We should see more humidity, a little bit more in the way of cloud cover, and eventually some additional storm chances. Those probably don’t become really notable until later in the week. Temperatures should start to increase some and push 90 degrees by Monday or Tuesday.

Bottom line: Enjoy this week’s stretch because you never know how many more like this we’ll get before summer sets in.

In brief: Showers and storms will cross the Houston area through mid-afternoon, with some possibly on the stronger or even severe side. Hail and gusty winds are the main concerns. It will turn sharply cooler this evening with gradual clearing tomorrow.

Things are quiet around Houston this morning, with just a few showers and a couple rumbles of thunder up near Huntsville. Otherwise, we have just a broken line of showers and embedded thunder on a line between about College Station and Columbus to our west.

Over the next couple hours, this “line” will move eastward, probably arriving in the Houston area itself around 12 to 2 PM. As the storms come east, the storms will likely strengthen some. That’s when we will see some heavier downpours, a little more lightning, and perhaps some 40 mph wind gusts. One or two storms could become severe with large hail, more damaging-type winds (60 mph) or even a very isolated tornado (mainly east of Houston). Those severe storms look to be the exception rather than the rule this afternoon, but we’ll continue to monitor things. We are in a level 3 of 5 (enhanced) risk northeast of Houston today for severe weather.

In addition to keeping an eye to the sky, keep an eye on the thermometer, especially this evening. Temperatures will peak in the 80s early this afternoon before dropping back into the 60s this evening and 50s before midnight. Out will be the humidity, in will be the light jacket. There will also likely be periodic showers this evening, possibly even a rumble of thunder or two. Things gradually clear out Sunday.

Just keep an eye on the weather today, but aside from one or two isolated severe storms, we do not anticipate things getting out of control.