For mid-April, it has been really nice here in Houston. The last several days have been just a few degrees below normal, which in April usually isn’t too bad. Those of you craving something more summery may get a chance to celebrate today and tomorrow. So as to not bury the lede, for those of you with parties or weddings or plans on Saturday: The vast majority of the day looks fine. There is a chance for a few showers in the morning. But the best chance for storms will be in the evening and probably highest to the south and east of Houston. More details below.
Today
Sun will give back in to cloud cover this afternoon. Onshore flow will send the humidity upwards through the day today. So it will feel a little hotter than it has most of this week. Highs top off in the low-80s.
Rain chances are not high, but they are not quite zero, with the best chance of a stray shower or two west of the Houston area late today.
Saturday
Starting with the rain and storms chances: First off, the Storm Prediction Center has us in a marginal (level 1/5) risk of severe storms tomorrow. So, there is a very minor chance that we could see some strong to severe storms tomorrow evening. Just something to keep in mind if you’ll be outdoors for any evening events. Chances of severe weather are not high, but they are not zero.
So when could it rain? Well, the chance is low (not zero) for the majority of the daylight hours. You’ll most likely be fine. But, a few showers will probably pop up in the morning, especially along or north of I-10, and we could have some pockets of light rain or drizzle elsewhere. The morning may be a bit dreary in spots but probably no reason to call off your plans.
I think Saturday afternoon looks mostly fine at this point. Sure, there’s a chance of a shower, but the vast majority of the area will probably be ok. More on temperatures below.
It’s Saturday evening when the window opens for a better chance at quick hitting storms. Many of you may not see any rain. But the chance is there for the entire area. However, whatever hits Saturday evening will probably be quick (think 30 to 45 minutes mostly). That said, if you have plans for Saturday evening, have a safe spot to retreat to in case lightning comes into play for 45 minutes or so.
As far as temperatures go, after a morning near 70 degrees, we’re going to surge deep into the 80s I think, with a chance for a few 90s in spots, depending on how much sun shows up.
For Saturday evening plans, temps will cool off some, but we probably won’t notice anything really significant until Sunday morning.
Sunday
Humidity will plunge while most of us are asleep Saturday night, and by Sunday morning, it will feel somewhat refreshing outside, with temperatures around 60 or in the upper-50s to start the day. We’ll warm into the 70s with sunshine and a breezy north wind that may gust to 20 or 25 mph at times.
Monday and Tuesday
The week starts off lovely with lots of sunshine and highs in the 70s, lows in the 50s.
Clouds should begin to build in on Tuesday, and there’s at least a chance of showers Tuesday afternoon and evening.
Mid to late next week
Confidence in the forecast details will drop off pretty dramatically after Tuesday. All I can tell you right now is that there is a chance of showers and storms for the mid to late week period. There may be another front in the weekend timeframe but that is not exactly locked in on the modeling. Whether we see just isolated activity or more numerous, scattered, or heavier storms is an open question right now, something we will effort to have an answer on by Monday.
2023 hurricane season
The crew at Colorado State University unveiled their forecast for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season yesterday. It calls for an average to below average season this year, something we haven’t seen in preseason forecasts in several years. That’s great news, however it’s important to note that last year was considered an “average” hurricane season, yet it produced the third costliest hurricane in American history in Florida. 1983 was an extremely below average hurricane season, and it produced Hurricane Alicia here in Houston. We know everyone loves these seasonal outlooks, so we share them willingly, but it’s important to prepare for this hurricane season as you would any other.
One of the main reasons they are anticipating average or below average activity is because of a developing El Niño in the Pacific Ocean. The last three summers have been neutral or La Niña driven, so the expectation has been for active seasons. The atmosphere will be much different this summer. In fact, if you look under the surface of the Pacific Ocean, you can see how much warm water is building.
You can decipher the image above in the caption, but the takeaway: El Niño is forming and it’s forming fast. That should aid wind shear in the Atlantic basin this hurricane season, which should hopefully cut down on the ability of storms to organize as easily as they have in recent seasons. That said, the Atlantic Ocean is very warm right now too, as is the Gulf.
So under the right conditions, it could be favorable for storm formation. Obviously, it’s April and a lot can change between now and August, so for now let’s just be grateful that the initial call for the season is quieter than normal. This El Niño is also likely to eventually impact our weather here in Texas. There’s no magic wand that tells us when or how that will happen, but we will probably notice some wetter periods across the state, more so than we have the last 2 or 3 years.
For what it’s worth, the Farmer’s Almanac extended weather forecast is predicting a hurricane threat along the LA and TX coast mid August. So like ya said..be prepared.
Random Q for the weather-wise folks here — the news reports out of Fort Lauderdale make it sound like their 25-inch rainfall event this week was not forecast. Is that true? If yes, how does that much rainfall sneak in? I understand storms can stall out, but here, we always (knock wood) seem to have advance warning of the possibility.
Second random Q — Did anyone around the city’s southwest/just outside 610 side hear sequential sonic boom type noises this morning? Seemed like a lot of air traffic but I also kept hearing intermittent air noises that didn’t sound like the flights that come out of Hobby and take a little while to pass.