In brief: The cold weather we’ve been experiencing for the last 36 hours is here to stay, as we are going to remain quite cold through Friday night. On Thursday and Thursday night we’re going to add a fair amount of rain to the mix, but fortunately this is unlikely to fall as freezing rain in Houston. The weekend looks sunny and pleasant, at least.
Cold update
Temperatures this morning have, again, fallen to just below freezing for much of the Houston area. The city’s official low temperature this morning is likely to be about 30 degrees at Bush Intercontinental Airport. This is not near record territory, as the record low temperature for January 7 in Houston is 19 degrees, set in 1970.
However, both our daily high and low temperatures are running 10 to 15 degrees below normal, and what is unusual about this week’s weather is its sticking power. We’re going to remain quite cold, weather-wise, through Saturday. So if you received an ugly sweater for Christmas, at least you’re going to be able to put it to good use.
Tuesday
After the cold start this morning we will see sunny skies today, and this should help push high temperatures up to around 50 degrees. Believe it or not, this could be the warmest we get until at least Saturday, which will be the region’s next truly sunny day. Anyway, winds will be lighter today than on Monday, so it will feel less chilly outside. Low temperatures tonight will probably be 1 to 3 degrees warmer than Monday night, so a light freeze is still possible in the Houston metro area, but it’s not guaranteed.
Wednesday
This will be a colder day, as winds from the north increase a bit, with gusts up to 20 mph, and we see the development of some clouds. These clouds should limit highs in the mid-40s during the daytime, but also moderate nighttime highs just a bit. Most of Houston probably will only fall into the mid- to upper-30s. That’s a good thing because beginning early Thursday we’ll start to see some rain chances.
Now I know some people will be disappointed that temperatures are not a few degrees colder, giving us the chance of snow. But I have to say, if temperatures were freezing—given the atmospheric profile—we probably would be getting freezing rain rather than snow in Houston. And let me tell you, that’s miserable, and it’s a mess on roads, and it can stick to powerlines and snap them and … well, freezing rain sucks. So let’s be glad it’s unlikely to fall here. There is a slight chance of freezing rain for counties well north of the city of Houston, including Houston (which is north of Huntsville, Texas) and Trinity counties.
Thursday
This will be a cold and gray day, with an increasing chance of showers the later we go. Like, please don’t plan any outdoor activities for Thursday or especially Thursday evening. Temperatures will be in the 40s, and winds from the northeast at 15 mph with higher gusts. And then there’s the rain. I expect much of the area to pick up 1 to 3 inches of rainfall through Thursday night, with some higher totals possible. So yeah, it’s going to be cold and wet and icky. The rains will continue into Friday morning. As noted yesterday, a winter storm is likely in North Texas, including the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex. Avoid traveling there if possible.
Friday
Some rain chances linger on Friday morning before the coastal low pressure system finally clears out. Afterward expect highs in the 40s with mostly cloudy skies. We probably will see an influx of colder air as the low moves to the east on Friday, so lows on Friday night may drop back into the lower 30s on Friday night, with some parts of Houston again seeing a light freeze.
Saturday and Sunday
Sunshine should finally return for the weekend, allowing high temperatures to reach maybe the lower 50s on Saturday, and even the 60s on Sunday. We have no real weather concerns for the weekend, so it’s something to look forward to as we’re freezing this week.
Houston Marathon
Hello, fellow runners. We’re now just 12 days away from the Houston Marathon, and we can begin to take a peek at the weather for the event. I know opinions vary, but I love cold and dry conditions. Some of you like it much warmer and even muggier. So what can we expect?
Most of next week looks to remain fairly cold. Not as cold as this week, but with lows consistently in the 40s, and possibly even 30s on some nights. However things may start to warm up some about 10 days from now. At that point there is a pretty broad divergence in the models about whether another system comes through to keep the chill going, or whether we continue to see warmer and milder weather.
So I think we cannot say much sensible about the weather yet for the marathon. It might be 40 degrees on the start line, or it might even be 60 degrees. Rain is definitely a possibility, but it’s way, way too early to make any kind of a prediction there. I’ll update the marathon forecast when there’s something I’m a little more confident in.
My plan is to fly into DFW Friday mid morning for the Texas/OSU game and then fly back Saturday morning back to Houston. Do you foresee any issues?
Old school late 1970’s type January unfolding…
Absolutely and I love it!
My daughter and friends planning on driving from Austin to Dallas for the UT/OSU game on Thursday worried this is not a wise decision?? Thoughts?
The last thing you want is for your daughter is to drive in ice. I drove from Houston to Austin during ice, which built up by Columbis. I was a kid, with an Oldsmobile and a trailor. Jackknifed once I hit 71. Many people had on that overpass. I was very lucky and squirmed out of it by pumping the brakes and the physics of the incline.
Lesson learned.
There is NO game worth allowing your daughter to risk her safety. You can’t see black ice. It will be very dangerous, esp for a someone from hot weather clime.
Todays post clearly states that the Dallas area will be winter storm on Thursday. share this info with your daughter, not ask strangers our thoughts about her plans
In fairness, I’m pretty sure she was directing her question to Eric and not strangers. Although it’s the type of question he typically doesn’t respond to.
Tell her to leave Wednesday evening or Thursday at around 2-3am before it starts. Have fun and enjoy the game!
If you can swing an extra night at the hotel, maybe have her go up on Wednesday
The post literally says there’s going to be a winter storm in Dallas on Thursday and into Friday. They’re forecast to get 10-12” of snow there. Do you want your daughter driving to Dallas in that/can she drive in snow and ice for a football game? Keep us posted lol.
“…. As noted yesterday, a winter storm is likely in North Texas, including the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex. Avoid traveling there if possible….”— per Space City Weather
On January 1, 1979, my friends and I traveled North on I-45 to the Cotton Bowl in Dallas through an ice storm in a 1971(?) Volkswagen bus. At one point in the journey, there were dozens of vehicles – one vehicle every few 1,000 feet- skidded off the highway on both sides of the rode.
My friend struggled at 30 miles-per-hour to keep the VW bus from being blown off the rode by high winds. We made it to about Centerville and decided to turn around watch the game in Alief. We made it to Alief in time to watch the whole game.
Young adults are going to do what young adults want to do. And this story does not include the 1977 Cotton Bowl, when an ice storm hit the evening as we arrived. A couple of friends left the hotel room for a beer run.
They missed the news reports encouraging drivers to stay off the roads. They had to drive past Mesquite after arriving and discovering that Mesquite was a dry town. They arrived to the hotel room safely after the beer run.
“road”
I’m predicting HISD cancels school on Friday out of an abundance of caution, even though it will be like 37 degrees outside at 7:30am.
I predict KatyISD won’t do shit even if we somehow magically get a sudden hard freeze. They LOVE keeping school open when it’s dangerous to stay open
It’s the Nanny state – or rather, fear of some ingrate parent looking to make some spare cash suing the school board if a little darling slides on the ice and bruises her bottom. These days, insurance companies settle rather than face a court battle even if the claim is bogus.
Unfortunately for my children, Mike Miles WILL NOT cancel school.
Anyone else with potted subtropical plants – how long are you planning on keeping them indoors?
I’m waiting until Sunday.
(I bought grow lights, so they have “sunshine” in the garage. They LOVE it! lol)
What are chances that the rain freezes on the ground for an icy commute Friday morning?
Zero in Houston – the ground is far above freezing.
Right now it’s not predicted to be at or below 32, so shouldn’t be.
I’m seeing Friday morning predicted to be a low of 38 degrees. This is a full six degrees above the freezing temperature of water, so I think it’s reasonable to say the chances of ice on the roadways is zero.
Do you think during to San Marcos Friday morning will be an issue?
I didn’t wrap my tropicals outside and got lucky with low temps staying a few degrees above freezing. I’m willing to play the odds and save myself the work involved. On the other hand, would I alter or cancel my travel plans given what I just read here and what I know about previous similar events in Texas? Absolutely, yes.
What is that low pressure system/thing trying to spin up down near Corpus & move up the coast on Thursday? It looks like it will keep the coldest stuff away, but is it going to bring severe weather to Houston?
From Jeff Lindner
A coastal low will intensify and move into our coastal waters from the southwest. Strong lift will come to bear over the area with widespread rain/showers/and maybe thunderstorms. Winds will increase from the northeast into the 15-20mph range with temperatures holding steady in the mid to upper 30’s over the region. Coastal low does get fairly close to the coast on Thursday night, but for now holding the warm sector offshore where any severe potential would be found. Widespread rains will continue into Thursday night before ending Friday morning as the low moves toward the Louisiana coast. Cold air will once again pour into the region behind the departing low on Friday. Fresh snowpack over portions of N and NC TX may promote a slightly colder air mass moving into the region Friday night than guidance is suggesting and will have to monitor this in the coming days…but looks like a widespread freeze is again likely Saturday AM for much of the area.
These coastal lows usually pull down colder air from the north. We used to see these a lot in the 70s and they would produce snow and ice.
may your words burn, we dont want snow here.
I’ve lived in Houston since 1964 and can count on one hand the number of snow days we’ve had. The average is about one every 8 to 10 years. I’m talking about snow that sticks to the ground in Central Houston down to Clear Lake, not a few flurries in The Woodlands.
Now this is looking more like the winters we used to get back in the day.
I got a rather nice sweater for Christmas, so no hardship to have opportunity to use it.
I am thinking there will be some surprise sitings of frozen precipitation in the greater Houston area. Brief, and very localized. Probably sleet or ice pellets.
When we get very cold air from the north overridden by a layer of warmer moist air from the gulf, even if the ground temperature stays above freezing rain from the warmer layer falling through the colder layer below may freeze.
Good point.
I only like ice in my drinks and my cooler; not on the roads or trees.
never understood why houston people like cold weather… should have picked a city further north if you like that. Most of us live here because we like warmth.
I enjoy a bit of refreshing into the low 50s, as a nice break from the 110s during the summer. The 30s though? Not fun.
Born & raised here, family here, job etc…the brief cold snap is most welcome. The nuclear furnace will be back soon enough
There is absolutely nowhere in the world which has an equitable climate, which is why those who have stolen all the money can afford to own two homes – or more – so they can move around to spend time with the conditions they prefer.
Hey guys – any thoughts on the security of the power grid? I know we always run a bit of a chance when it gets cold, but I’m still thinking about the 2021 freeze and its effects. Would love to hear your take on how this will compare (i.e. will it be that cold/wintery this time and what does that mean for electricity?).