In brief: Today’s post delves into the uncertainty around the potential for snow early next week, as well as just how cold things will get. The reality is, in Houston, one just cannot confidently forecast snow nearly a week out. As for temperatures, we appear to be trending away from extreme cold, which is a good thing.
Winter storm real talk
Whenever there’s the possibility of snow in Houston, people lose their minds. Some people are absolutely giddy at the rare prospect of snow. Others fear what it will do to Houston’s unprepared drivers and untreated roads. Kids anticipate the rarest of all gifts in Houston, a ‘snow’ day.
Here’s the reality from a forecaster’s standpoint. Yes, there is an increasing possibility of snow or sleet beginning next Monday night and Tuesday, but this is still nearly six days away. This means our confidence in forecasting any wintry precipitation remains very low. There is probably about a 50-50 chance we see some kind of wintry mix, so set your expectations accordingly. Our confidence in the forecast will increase as we get closer.
Wednesday
We’re seeing fairly widespread, light showers this morning, and these will continue for most of the day. The showers are more numerous south of Interstate 10, closer to the source of moisture. None of this rain is likely to turn heavy, so mostly the will just be a cold, light rain. With mostly cloudy skies, expect high temperatures in the low 50s. Temperatures tonight will drop to about 40 degrees, with clearing skies.
Thursday
NICE DAY ALERT! This will be a mostly sunny day day with high temperatures in the low 60s. Honestly, looking ahead at the forecast, this is probably going to be the nicest day outside for quite awhile. Lows on Thursday night will drop into the lower 60s.
Friday
We’ll see some blue skies on Friday morning, maybe, but then clouds will start top build. Temperatures will approach 70 degrees during the afternoon hours, with modestly increasing humidity levels. There will be a slight chance of some showers on Friday night, but these now look to be mostly light instead of anything threatening. Lows on Friday night will likely only drop into the upper 50s.
Saturday
This will be a partly sunny day, with highs in the low 60s ahead of a strong cold front. A few showers and thunderstorms may be possible just ahead of the front as it moves through, but for many people this could be a dry passage. I expect the front to reach central Houston by around noon, and push off the coast shortly afterward. We may hold on to temperatures in the 50s for a few hours after the front passes, but as the sun sets and northwesterly winds blow, much drier and colder air will be pushing in. Lows on Saturday night will drop into the 30s.
Sunday
You read that right, marathon runners. I now expect start-line temperatures in Houston to be in the vicinity of the mid-30s. We don’t need to worry about precipitation, fortunately, and skies should be mostly clear. What I’m watching mostly closely is winds. Right now they’re likely to be out of the north at 10 to 15 mph. The trend in gusts has been slightly lower, so for now I’d anticipate gusting up to about 25 mph. That is certainly no picnic, but it beats 30 or 35 mph. The bottom line is that if you’re running, I recommend bundling up. I’ll be wearing my warmer gloves for this one. Highs on Sunday will reach the mid- to upper-40s most likely before a possible freeze on Sunday night.
MLK Day
The forecast models have, in recent runs, backed off some of the extreme cold anticipated for next week. The caveat at the beginning of this post about snow uncertainty still applies to temperatures as well. But at this point I would expect most of Houston to experience a light freeze on Monday morning, with partly sunny skies. Highs will only reach 40 degrees. So if you’re participating or watching a parade, please dress warmly.
The rest of next week
Beginning Monday evening, through Wednesday morning, is when the Houston region will experience the best chance of a wintry mix and coldest temperatures.
We’ll start with temperatures. At this point I think we’ll probably bottom out on Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. For Houston, the likely range of temperatures on these mornings is probably 25 to 30 degrees, with a hard freeze possible for inland areas, and the immediate coast possibly remaining just above freezing. High temperatures through Wednesday will likely be on the order of 40 degrees. Again we’ll have to fine-tune the temperature forecast as we get closer.
With regard to precipitation, we’ll start to see an influx of moisture beginning later on Monday and Monday night, and this will bring a modest chance of precipitation on Monday night, Tuesday, and Tuesday night. With the colder air this brings the possibility of snow (most likely at this time), sleet, or freezing rain into the forecast. Because slight temperature differences in the atmosphere will determine the type of precipitation, we just cannot make a call on whether it will snow, sleet, or rain in Houston during the first half of next week. But it’s a distinct possibility, along with some mobility issues on Tuesday and Wednesday morning. We’ll be watching all of this closely over the weekend for you, with regular updates.
A warming trend begins Thursday.
I’m honestly not worried about snow or ice, but low temperatures. Have seen forecast as low 15-20 and not warming above freezing during the day. Is this correct?
It’s like people don’t read his forecast.
It’s almost like you didn’t read the comment. Or it’s like you think Eric’s forecast is the only forecast out there. I have 3 weather apps on phone and all 3 are different. I’ve seen almost 8-10 degree differences between them. All she was trying to say was OTHER forecasts have shown way lower temps. My wife said Apple Maps showed her as low as 17 the other day.
Learn to read and understand before you scold others about not reading. LOLOL
Last night, Apple was showing 6-8″ of snow for Monday into Tuesday. That is WILD
She said “forecast” which is singular, not forecasts as your implying. you should learn to read and understand before you scold others. LOLOL
Before scolding others, be quiet.
correct, the forecasts have been all over the place. They are very messy and any opportunity for news sources to get clicks and views will be taken by them so they will highlight any extreme the models will show even if the temps dont end up like that. Ethics have gone out the window with forecasts and the models are just not reliable for long term forecasts. It’s better to wait…
SPC does seem to have a warm bias in their forecasts.
Read the Narional Weather Service discussion, they too have noted warmer trends.
“ We’ll start with temperatures. At this point I think we’ll probably bottom out on Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. For Houston, the likely range of temperatures on these mornings is probably 25 to 30 degrees, with a hard freeze possible for inland areas, and the immediate coast possibly remaining just above freezing. High temperatures through Wednesday will likely be on the order of 40 degrees. Again we’ll have to fine-tune the temperature forecast as we get closer.” — per Space City Weather.
I hope this helps
did you read the post?
Didn’t you read what Eric has just written?
Losing mind, check.
I did not lose my mind;
I sold it on Ebay.
Today will be the 10th straight day of below normal temperatures with many more to come. Currently running almost 5 degrees below for the month, on the way down. And I was almost starting to give into the gloom and doom that these types of cold snaps would be a thing of the past in a warming world.
Now I have to figure out how to keep my avocado tree from dying back to the roots for the fourth time in the last five years. Does anyone else feel like these cold snaps are becoming more frequent and more intense like they were in the 1970’s?
Previous year’s freezes have seen my tropicals die back to the roots and then take a long time – sometimes years – to recover. Every year it’s the same now it seems.
So if i am reading this correctly, this european model graph is predicting 6 inches of snow in the Houston area?
I have seen the european model maps show as much as 8 in the woodlands and conroe area. If we do get this sort of snow, wouldnt it take days to melt? If theres still snow lingering on the ground thursday and friday would it be difficult to drive?
Our pipes froze and burst in 2021 but of course that was a combo of super low temps and no power/heat. Still considering whether a water shut off this time around would be prudent? I can’t tell yet or no how many hours the temps could be around 25-28 for these nights so trying to weigh options. Thoughts? I’m on the cusp of Katy close to the Park 10 area. Thanks!
Insulate all your external pipes, but the vast majority of Texas houses should be good for temps 25-28 degrees without issue.
Thanks!! Yes, we’ve kept the exterior pipes insulted since this month’s earlier drop in temps and will keep those insulated. I suppose if we were to lose power/heat, we could turn off the water quickly. All up in the air!
Pro tip: turning off water prevents a stupid disaster if you’re going to be away. Easy to do and should ALWAYS be done if away. But you still risk breaking outside valves or pipe in a LONG deep freeze. Insulation w/o heat tracing will not prevent stagnant water from freezing.
We will not have that next week. So no worries.
Should it ever occur again, and you are staying home, you must bleed (drip) outside faucets …to keep water flowing. Not a fan of bleeding inside faucets – even next to external wall like under the kitchen sink. As long as house stays relatively warm. Know the temperature in the attic too! and act accordingly.
Good info DJ, you seem to know about this, so curious what you think of my situation: I turn off and drain all outside lines/hoses as that’s a different shut off valve. The lines to house are all underground so depending on temps (how long low and when heating up), I either turn off and drain everything or drip inside. Here’s why: the lines from my water heater are on a portion of my attic that is OUTSIDE of the warmth of the house (over the deck) as opposed to the sections of lines going over the living space. This is what caused a break in 2021. (I didn’t realize those portions of the lines ran over an outside section). So, under these circumstances, I struggle with that “break even point” (no pun intended) of deciding on turning off for 3 days or dripping for 3 days. I realize this would merely be your opinion, but would appreciate thoughts anyway. If it helps, after fixing the break in 2021, we reinsulated so they are not only wrapped, but have layers of insulation under and over the pipes.
It’s definitely pipe-insulting weather
This is for Ari – that’s a good one! You might get one of those cheap remote temperature sensors for that exposed attic. That will tell you if you need to keep a little flow up there. May be inconvenient to shut off the supply and drain if you’re staying put. The insulation you did means you don’t have to drip much. Again if your water gets shut off by external mal doers like in 21 you gotta drain……the water doesn’t care if it’s 19 deg or 31. It’s the time that matters.
THE key factor will be power. so many pipes would not have needed to bust in 2021 if there had been heating from inside, or warm water from water heater. (even modern gas-fueled water heaters need some electricity for ignition. go ahead, ask me how i know that).
As noted below, outside pipes should be insulated anyway, but necessity of internal preps will depend on the electricity outlook. Right now would be a good time to see what the forecast is for the rest of the state, so that we have an idea of power generation and needs for those with whom we share the grid.
Yes, my thoughts exactly. If power stays on we should be fine. If power is out for just a few hours, still ok. But longer than that and even overnight will be a problem. Thankfully, it looks like daytime temps will rise to or above freezing, which is a major difference from the 2021 storm. We might go glamping at home for a couple days to not risk it. But I’ll check the weather for the rest of the state too – good idea!
Tankless water heaters do require electricity, but you can still buy modern, natural gas, tank heaters that don’t require electricity, I had one installed less than 2 years ago and I was thankful for warm water through the hurricane-induced power outage.
If power ever fails again in a freeze – all involved need to be fired. Gov on down. Un-winterized power and gas plants are inexcusable now. Fool me once, shame….
The city shut down the water in 21 so bleeders stopped working. Then you need extra valves and bleeders to purge pipes empty or have tracing. Can be done but not easily. Losing power in that cold event was just sooo bad. 3rd world really.
Kim … you should be just as cautious if you turn the water off.
In the 2021 freeze, we closed the main tank valve which supplies water to house (we are on our own water well in Magnolia).
When the temps finally got above 36°, we decided to open the main valve. We heard water gushing in the attic, so immediately turned main valve off. Fortunately, minimal damage to ceiling in washroom.
The problem?? The pipe had already burst BEFORE we turned the water on. Why? Because there is STILL water lingering in various pipes in the attic – doesn’t matter if horizontal or vertical pipes. That lingering water can still freeze and expand.
You’d have to completely flush all pipes of water (with compressed air).
Also … if you’re planning on turning the water off, be sure to fill up all bathtubs and sinks, so you can flush the toilets 😀
Oh that stinks about the pipe! Ugh…such a headache! So we ended up turning off our water a couple years back for a Christmas freeze and drained all the pipes before the water was shut off. And filled up the tubs! 😊 That went well but was definitely a hassle. I can’t recall what the lowest temp was that year. Still waiting to get closer to Monday to see what this front will bring. 😬
Do a load of wash with hot water just before the temperature drops below freezing.
going to be a cold marathon, at least it’s not raining.
I am so glad my runner has a hip problem and will not be running so I don’t have to stand out there in the cold – oops, I hope he doesn’t read this. ;-(
So, IF Houston gets some freezing precip next week, what are the chances it will stick when it hits the ground? (I know overpasses, flyovers, etc, will probably be slick.)
It will be cold in the days following the winter precip, so if it snows, it will have an easier time sticking to the ground. If we just get freezing rain, then the roads could become dangerous if the temperatures drop below freezing for many hours. Over the past few years, it has tended to get colder than they predict with these Arctic cold snaps, so I would definitely be on guard next week, especially if you have to drive anywhere on Tuesday or Wednesday.
Strange thing today. I fired up Google Photos and tapped on the “Memories” feature. A few photos showed up, but two were interesting:
Jan 16, 2018 photo of our Cypress property backyard and 6 car garage – covered with snow. (lost that home to Harvey).
.
Feb 16, 2021 photo of our Magnolia property (multi-acreage) – house and all pastures covered with snow – horses trying to figure out where to graze 🙂
We get it, Aggie. You’re so X.
Hi! First time running the Houston marathon and I read somewhere to follow your page for weather. Thank you for all the updates. Will the winds end up being strong headwind the majority of the race? Mentally preparing for that but wondering your thoughts.
Hi Karina,
You do know the course is a loop, don’t you; so at some time on the course you will have a head wind, and sometimes a tail wind and some times hardly a noticeable wind. Enjoy your race, good luck.
Yeah looking back, a silly question haha. Thank you!
One of the frustrations I have with this city is how everything goes to pot simply because the temperatures drop to freezing. But at least we provide a good laugh for the people up north. Find the “Snow in Houston” 37 degrees video on YouTube if you don’t believe me.
Relax, folks, we’ll get through it. you’re not going to die. Well, probably not.
Everyday it’s the same thing with you. Can we point and laugh at the northerners who are “struggling to stay cool” at 92 degrees in the summer? It’s almost like different parts of the country are built for different types of climate.
It’s quite comical seeing the A/C units up north – the size I have for my 1,500 sf house in Houston is used to cool a 4,500 sf house up in Minnesota, however the houses up north are typically built with more insulation due to the greater temperature differentials between the cold winters outside and warm inside.
And none of this “run the water supply through the outside of the house 36 inches above ground to save the builder a couple of bucks” stuff. Up north, they bring it in through the slab or basement and the supply line won’t freeze in minus 20. Homes here should be built for hard freezes because, well, we have them. Either the builder has to do winterization or the homeowner has to do it post-build at either greater expense or effort (and probably less effectively).
Pro tip: The best way to know what the weather is going to do is to step outside. Works eveytime 👍
That would be nowcasting, not forecasting. Big difference.
Nowcasting tends to be more way more accurate than forecasting.
Hi! Could you please describe what you mean by the immediate coast? I can never figure this out. I am in La Porte Texas three houses up from the water but that’s kind of inside the bay so do you mean Galveston or do you mean Texas City to Baytown if you live on the coast? Would really really appreciate it!
“Could you please describe what you mean by the immediate coast”
1 inch from the high tide line is the immediate coast, all the rest is inland. Hope that helps.
oh dang I was hoping I would be spared, my house is on blocks! TY
The rain today actually exceeded expectations. I’ve had over an inch of rain so far, which is far more than what was forecasted, and it is still raining. It usually does not rain more than forecasted very often these days.