In brief: Today’s post delves into the uncertainty around the potential for snow early next week, as well as just how cold things will get. The reality is, in Houston, one just cannot confidently forecast snow nearly a week out. As for temperatures, we appear to be trending away from extreme cold, which is a good thing.
Winter storm real talk
Whenever there’s the possibility of snow in Houston, people lose their minds. Some people are absolutely giddy at the rare prospect of snow. Others fear what it will do to Houston’s unprepared drivers and untreated roads. Kids anticipate the rarest of all gifts in Houston, a ‘snow’ day.
Here’s the reality from a forecaster’s standpoint. Yes, there is an increasing possibility of snow or sleet beginning next Monday night and Tuesday, but this is still nearly six days away. This means our confidence in forecasting any wintry precipitation remains very low. There is probably about a 50-50 chance we see some kind of wintry mix, so set your expectations accordingly. Our confidence in the forecast will increase as we get closer.
Wednesday
We’re seeing fairly widespread, light showers this morning, and these will continue for most of the day. The showers are more numerous south of Interstate 10, closer to the source of moisture. None of this rain is likely to turn heavy, so mostly the will just be a cold, light rain. With mostly cloudy skies, expect high temperatures in the low 50s. Temperatures tonight will drop to about 40 degrees, with clearing skies.
Thursday
NICE DAY ALERT! This will be a mostly sunny day day with high temperatures in the low 60s. Honestly, looking ahead at the forecast, this is probably going to be the nicest day outside for quite awhile. Lows on Thursday night will drop into the lower 60s.
Friday
We’ll see some blue skies on Friday morning, maybe, but then clouds will start top build. Temperatures will approach 70 degrees during the afternoon hours, with modestly increasing humidity levels. There will be a slight chance of some showers on Friday night, but these now look to be mostly light instead of anything threatening. Lows on Friday night will likely only drop into the upper 50s.
Saturday
This will be a partly sunny day, with highs in the low 60s ahead of a strong cold front. A few showers and thunderstorms may be possible just ahead of the front as it moves through, but for many people this could be a dry passage. I expect the front to reach central Houston by around noon, and push off the coast shortly afterward. We may hold on to temperatures in the 50s for a few hours after the front passes, but as the sun sets and northwesterly winds blow, much drier and colder air will be pushing in. Lows on Saturday night will drop into the 30s.
Sunday
You read that right, marathon runners. I now expect start-line temperatures in Houston to be in the vicinity of the mid-30s. We don’t need to worry about precipitation, fortunately, and skies should be mostly clear. What I’m watching mostly closely is winds. Right now they’re likely to be out of the north at 10 to 15 mph. The trend in gusts has been slightly lower, so for now I’d anticipate gusting up to about 25 mph. That is certainly no picnic, but it beats 30 or 35 mph. The bottom line is that if you’re running, I recommend bundling up. I’ll be wearing my warmer gloves for this one. Highs on Sunday will reach the mid- to upper-40s most likely before a possible freeze on Sunday night.
MLK Day
The forecast models have, in recent runs, backed off some of the extreme cold anticipated for next week. The caveat at the beginning of this post about snow uncertainty still applies to temperatures as well. But at this point I would expect most of Houston to experience a light freeze on Monday morning, with partly sunny skies. Highs will only reach 40 degrees. So if you’re participating or watching a parade, please dress warmly.
The rest of next week
Beginning Monday evening, through Wednesday morning, is when the Houston region will experience the best chance of a wintry mix and coldest temperatures.
We’ll start with temperatures. At this point I think we’ll probably bottom out on Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. For Houston, the likely range of temperatures on these mornings is probably 25 to 30 degrees, with a hard freeze possible for inland areas, and the immediate coast possibly remaining just above freezing. High temperatures through Wednesday will likely be on the order of 40 degrees. Again we’ll have to fine-tune the temperature forecast as we get closer.
With regard to precipitation, we’ll start to see an influx of moisture beginning later on Monday and Monday night, and this will bring a modest chance of precipitation on Monday night, Tuesday, and Tuesday night. With the colder air this brings the possibility of snow (most likely at this time), sleet, or freezing rain into the forecast. Because slight temperature differences in the atmosphere will determine the type of precipitation, we just cannot make a call on whether it will snow, sleet, or rain in Houston during the first half of next week. But it’s a distinct possibility, along with some mobility issues on Tuesday and Wednesday morning. We’ll be watching all of this closely over the weekend for you, with regular updates.
A warming trend begins Thursday.
I’m honestly not worried about snow or ice, but low temperatures. Have seen forecast as low 15-20 and not warming above freezing during the day. Is this correct?
It’s like people don’t read his forecast.
It’s almost like you didn’t read the comment. Or it’s like you think Eric’s forecast is the only forecast out there. I have 3 weather apps on phone and all 3 are different. I’ve seen almost 8-10 degree differences between them. All she was trying to say was OTHER forecasts have shown way lower temps. My wife said Apple Maps showed her as low as 17 the other day.
Learn to read and understand before you scold others about not reading. LOLOL
Last night, Apple was showing 6-8″ of snow for Monday into Tuesday. That is WILD
correct, the forecasts have been all over the place. They are very messy and any opportunity for news sources to get clicks and views will be taken by them so they will highlight any extreme the models will show even if the temps dont end up like that. Ethics have gone out the window with forecasts and the models are just not reliable for long term forecasts. It’s better to wait…
SPC does seem to have a warm bias in their forecasts.
Read the Narional Weather Service discussion, they too have noted warmer trends.
“ We’ll start with temperatures. At this point I think we’ll probably bottom out on Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. For Houston, the likely range of temperatures on these mornings is probably 25 to 30 degrees, with a hard freeze possible for inland areas, and the immediate coast possibly remaining just above freezing. High temperatures through Wednesday will likely be on the order of 40 degrees. Again we’ll have to fine-tune the temperature forecast as we get closer.” — per Space City Weather.
I hope this helps
did you read the post?
Didn’t you read what Eric has just written?
Losing mind, check.
I did not lose my mind;
I sold it on Ebay.
Today will be the 10th straight day of below normal temperatures with many more to come. Currently running almost 5 degrees below for the month, on the way down. And I was almost starting to give into the gloom and doom that these types of cold snaps would be a thing of the past in a warming world.
Now I have to figure out how to keep my avocado tree from dying back to the roots for the fourth time in the last five years. Does anyone else feel like these cold snaps are becoming more frequent and more intense like they were in the 1970’s?
Previous year’s freezes have seen my tropicals die back to the roots and then take a long time – sometimes years – to recover. Every year it’s the same now it seems.
So if i am reading this correctly, this european model graph is predicting 6 inches of snow in the Houston area?
I have seen the european model maps show as much as 8 in the woodlands and conroe area. If we do get this sort of snow, wouldnt it take days to melt? If theres still snow lingering on the ground thursday and friday would it be difficult to drive?
Our pipes froze and burst in 2021 but of course that was a combo of super low temps and no power/heat. Still considering whether a water shut off this time around would be prudent? I can’t tell yet or no how many hours the temps could be around 25-28 for these nights so trying to weigh options. Thoughts? I’m on the cusp of Katy close to the Park 10 area. Thanks!
Insulate all your external pipes, but the vast majority of Texas houses should be good for temps 25-28 degrees without issue.
Thanks!! Yes, we’ve kept the exterior pipes insulted since this month’s earlier drop in temps and will keep those insulated. I suppose if we were to lose power/heat, we could turn off the water quickly. All up in the air!
Pro tip: turning off water prevents a stupid disaster if you’re going to be away. Easy to do and should ALWAYS be done if away. But you still risk breaking outside valves or pipe in a LONG deep freeze. Insulation w/o heat tracing will not prevent stagnant water from freezing.
We will not have that next week. So no worries.
Should it ever occur again, and you are staying home, you must bleed (drip) outside faucets …to keep water flowing. Not a fan of bleeding inside faucets – even next to external wall like under the kitchen sink. As long as house stays relatively warm. Know the temperature in the attic too! and act accordingly.
THE key factor will be power. so many pipes would not have needed to bust in 2021 if there had been heating from inside, or warm water from water heater. (even modern gas-fueled water heaters need some electricity for ignition. go ahead, ask me how i know that).
As noted below, outside pipes should be insulated anyway, but necessity of internal preps will depend on the electricity outlook. Right now would be a good time to see what the forecast is for the rest of the state, so that we have an idea of power generation and needs for those with whom we share the grid.
Yes, my thoughts exactly. If power stays on we should be fine. If power is out for just a few hours, still ok. But longer than that and even overnight will be a problem. Thankfully, it looks like daytime temps will rise to or above freezing, which is a major difference from the 2021 storm. We might go glamping at home for a couple days to not risk it. But I’ll check the weather for the rest of the state too – good idea!
Tankless water heaters do require electricity, but you can still buy modern, natural gas, tank heaters that don’t require electricity, I had one installed less than 2 years ago and I was thankful for warm water through the hurricane-induced power outage.
going to be a cold marathon, at least it’s not raining.
So, IF Houston gets some freezing precip next week, what are the chances it will stick when it hits the ground? (I know overpasses, flyovers, etc, will probably be slick.)