In brief: Today’s post looks ahead to when Houston will start to feel more like winter again (the answer for most of us is Thursday morning). Additionally, with the potential for significant budget cuts on the horizon, we discuss how NOAA and the National Weather Service provide considerable value.
The value of the National Weather Service
There has been a lot of talk about cutting the US government via the “Department of Government Efficiency,” which is ostensibly assessing the performance of each US agency to improve its output. There are a lot of strong feelings about the actions of this body, spearheaded by Elon Musk, and it is beyond the scope of this website to judge its value. Suffice it to say we believe there is bloat in the US government that ought to be addressed, but at the same time US agencies provide valuable services, and most civil servants are trying to do the right thing.
This morning I want to write a few words about the value brought by the federal government’s weather and climate agency, NOAA, in general; and one of its organizations, the National Weather Service, in particular. We strongly believe that NOAA and the National Weather Service provide tremendous value to American taxpayers that cannot easily be replicated by private companies—most definitely including Space City Weather.
NOAA collects an extraordinary amount of data about our planet’s atmosphere and oceans every day. They send hundreds of weather balloons into the skies. They have a vast network of buoys and weather stations. They operate state-of-the-art radars. When there is a hurricane, NOAA and its partners operate a fleet of aircraft and professionals that fly into the maw of the storm to gather vital data that is used to make warnings, and improve forecasts.
It not only collects this data, but NOAA plays an important role in weather modeling, operating one of the world’s premiere computational forecast systems. Moreover, its high-resolution models are vital to predicting thunderstorms and severe weather on a local scale, as well as the evolution of hurricanes. Matt and I use these high-resolution models every day. And NOAA shares all of this data and information, for free, with the world to improve weather prediction.
During hurricane season, much of the world looks to the National Hurricane Center in Miami for actionable information. But within NOAA there is also the Storm Prediction Center, which forecasts tornado outbreaks and other severe weather; the Weather Prediction Center, which forecasts rainfall amounts; and of course the National Weather Service, which has offices around the country, including one in the Houston-Galveston area. Dedicated meteorologists there provide around-the-clock forecasts and issue life-saving warnings. Matt and I know these people, and they work really hard for all of us.
Local decisionmakers and Emergency Management System officials in every city and county in America rely on local forecast officers for everything from closing roads and schools, to calling for evacuations and or opening cooling centers, and so much more.
So can’t we just privatize all of this? Not easily. Most private weather companies do not collect essential data about our atmosphere or oceans, or issue public warnings. Typically, they provide proprietary forecasts that tailor and fine-tune public information for specific applications beyond the core mission of the National Weather Service. No private company could provide high quality forecasts if not for the data that NOAA freely disseminates.
What about just getting forecasts from the app on my phone? Well, a lot of the weather apps on your phone are serviced by back-end data provided by the National Weather Service (including ours), or the models operated by NOAA. And those fancy radars on your phone telling you when to stay put? Those are operated by NOAA.
The bottom line is that it would be a bad idea to take a hammer and start whacking NOAA and the National Weather Service. If there is bloat, or fraud, or waste, by all means root it out. But if we destroy the core mission of these valuable federal weather services, we will all lose.
Monday
Temperatures this morning are somewhat cooler, with a weak front having pushed into Houston and all the way down to the coast. The key word here is weak, and the front’s impact won’t last for long, especially for areas south of I-10. With that said, temperatures today will generally be in the upper 60s, with cloudy skies helping to keep us on the cooler side. Winds will be out of the east this morning, but should gradually turn southeast this afternoon and evening, and this southerly flow will only allow lows to drop into the low- to mid-60s for much of Houston.
Tuesday
Weather on Tuesday will be warmer and more dynamic. Highs will reach near 80 degrees for much of the area, with mostly cloudy skies. There will be a chance for some light showers on Tuesday morning, with an increasing chance of rain and the potential for some thunderstorms on Tuesday afternoon and evening as the upper atmosphere becomes more perturbed. Rain chances slacken a bit Tuesday night, with lows dropping into the upper 60s.
Wednesday
This will be another warm day, with highs in the 70s to 80 degrees. We’re going to see another chance of showers and thunderstorms ahead of a cool front, which should arrive later in the day. It is not entirely clear how long it will take the cooler and drier air to move down through the area, but Wednesday night will be notably cooler for areas inland of Interstate 10, with cooler air probably coming in for coastal areas later.
Thursday
This will be a notably cooler day, with highs likely topping out in the upper 50s, with a mixture of sunshine and clouds. We can’t rule out a few lingering showers. Lows on Thursday night will probably drop into the 40s.
Friday, Saturday, and Sunday
At this point, it looks like we’ll start warming up again on Friday and especially Saturday, with highs climbing back into the 70s by Saturday, with rising humidity levels. Another cold front appears likely to pass through the area on Saturday night-ish, which will push us back into winter-like temperatures on Sunday, with highs likely only in the upper 50s or so. The details on this are a bit fuzzy, but basically Saturday should be warm, and Sunday quite a bit cooler with a better chance for clear skies.
Next week
Our roller coaster weather continues, most likely, with a succession of fronts bringing varying weather conditions from spring- to winter-like. Several readers with itchy gardening inclinations have asked about the likelihood of another freeze in the Houston area this year, and that’s a topic I’ll address in tomorrow’s post.
Thanks for the forecast and for advocating for science!
Well said, Eric. Thank you.
💗
My feelings exactly
Seconded! 💜
did y’all like running the AC in february? lol
Time to look up Betteridge’s Law of Headlines, because this is a perfect example.
If we don’t collect data, we can continue to deny that climate change is real.
The climate has been changing for millennia. If it wasn’t, we’d still be in the ice age.
We are still in an ice age.
It’s all about trying to eliminate collecting data on climate change.
That’s part of it. Another part is the owner of AccuWeather specifically has been advocating to privatize NOAA for a long time. The reason there is no NOAA weather app for your phone is because of lobbying by private weather forecasting companies.
Overall, I think NOAA does a pretty good job. But I’ll still prefer the Soace City “filter” any day! 👍
And perhaps those at the National Weather Service / NOAA can avoid some of the Global Warming err “climate change” editorializing and stick fully to reporting on, and predicting real time weather. Period.
Science leads where it does, and sometimes that is in unexpected directions that challenge our current, accepted understanding of things. If, in their pursuit of a greater understanding of our planet’s atmospheric workings, NOAA and/or the NWS find data that in fact furthers that knowledge, of course they should publicize it.
Thanks, Eric, for this succinct explanation of the value of NOAA and NWS! I shared it with my middle schoolers.
Thanks also for moderating the comments! I wasted five minutes discerning how best to reply gently and constructively to the yellow one, and I’m sure others did, too.
Is the 90 Hobby Airport recorded yesterday any accurate? Surrounding airports and stations only recorded 81.
Hobby recorded 83 yesterday. Not sure where you saw 90
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=CF6&issuedby=HOU
Thank you!
Hear Hear for NOAA. Your education, experience, and insight into NOAA and the NWS put you in a better position than most in the public and government (and certain Elon) to assess its value to the Nation and speak up for it.
Think of how poorly equipped we’d all be to accurately and fairly judge a federal agency’s work and its value without years of education, experience, and insight into the specific work of the agency……
Well, if they privatized NWS a fee would be attached to the data if it were to continue to operate. That would have implications for… I’ll stop there. But to be serious about it, if you looked at their budget and found some kind of revenue metric, what would it cost? I don’t really see why taxpayers should fund weather channel or intellicast. You guys are different of course.
Should we have NOAA and NWS? Yes, absolutely. It is a program that facilitates trade, safety, and national public interest. Who else is going to fly into hurricanes? I also really appreciate their NOAA weather alerts, as it seems to be as accurate or more accurate than my phone is.
However, is there fat we can cut? Absolutely there is, and it’s our duty to the taxpayers to make sure their labor, extracted through taxes, is put to best and highest use.
Spot on !
Has there been any official announcements from the Federal government that it is reducing funding for NOAA or NWS?
No official announcements yet. However, DOGE staff have been entering NOAA facilities and “inspecting” their IT systems over the last few days. Staffers have told local media that the DOGE folks are telling them to expect a 50% headcount reduction.
Just google “doge cut noaa” and you’ll find a bunch of articles about it.
All the articles Google shows me are rumors from the typical main stream media outlets. “Unnamed sources “.
All I know is I have been grateful for you since your Houston Chronicle days.
No drama, unless it’s warranted like when it’s finally time to evacuate Katy. Lol
And crazy accurate in a field that can be impossible to predict.
This idea of cutting NOAA funding is stupid and dangerous, especially for an area like the Gulf Coast.
If privatization is what it takes then it is what it is.
But thank goodness for Space City Weather.
Former emergency manager here. Thanks for speaking up on behalf of NWS and the League City office. They are invaluable partners to first responders, EMs, PIOs, public safety officials, meteorologists and, by extension, the general public. They are present during EOC activations and are written into countless emergency plans. Here’s hoping public safety agencies remain just that – public; and available to everyone.
My sinuses are really going to be awful the next several days. But not as awful as the Super Bowl halftime show.
Please stay independent of government control. You guys will be our mainstay and saving grace here along the Texas Gulf Coast should the Clowns of Chaos prevail.
It’s fair to say that weather forecasting is a public good. Thus, it should be funded by general taxes. But there is a question of how it is most efficiently provided. We have seen that a private company can launch things into outer space much cheaper than government, for example. It is possible that the data gathering and model running could be better done by private entities. That is an open question. In addition, more competition for funds might advance the science of weather forecasting at a higher rate.
The private company launching things into space had the benefit of NASA blazing the trail. Private companies also benefit from basic research that’s publicly funded. I want essential services (be it weather forecasting, or the fire department, etc) to not be driven by maximizing shareholder profits.
Thank you.
These Project 2025 plans for NOAA and the NWS are among their dumbest and most potentially harmful.
Don’t mess with my weather, bean counters!
Let’s put together a consortium and buy NOAA from the govt lock stock & barrel then instead of providing all the data for free – make it a subscription service? Militaries, airlines, shipping, insurance, individuals, etc. would pay to play. No pay, no tornado alert on your phone. The sales price for NOAA goes into an American sovereign wealth fund that distributes dividends in a Universal Basic Income. Revenues go toward OPEX CAPEX & profits come to us. We could even make it a utility with legally guaranteed profit and tax breaks since it would be a monopoly. Just saying.
where is the cold front we were talking about last week? It feels the same.