In brief: Houston’s second cool front of the season has arrived and it will take our temperatures down a little bit. Long-time residents will know the primary benefit of September fronts is that they knock down humidity levels, rather than temperatures. And we should see drier-than-normal air through the weekend despite warm days. Enjoy!
Is this Fall Day?
Typically, we designate the day after Houston’s first nighttime temperature of 65 degrees, or lower, as Fall Day. The coolest night of the season, so far, came on September 9, when low temperatures reached 67 degrees at Bush Intercontinental Airport. Low temperatures there tonight will get close, so there’s a chance that Friday will be Fall Day.
A few readers have asked whether we are going to have another Fall Day celebration this year. The answer is no, because we’re going to wait a year so that we might have a bigger event in 2025. Why? Because that will be the 10th anniversary of this website. I know, I can’t believe it either. If you have ideas for the celebration, let us know in the comments below. We’re working with our partner Reliant to do something special. Speaking of Reliant, be sure and stay tuned for a message from them at the end of the post.
Thursday
Skies will be sunny today, with a northerly wind at 10 to 15 mph, which may occasionally gust up to 20 mph or a bit higher. Those winds are bringing in drier air that will help dewpoints drop into the 50s later this morning or by the afternoon hours. Drier air warms more quickly, so air temperatures are likely to get into the upper 80s. But it will feel noticeably drier, and temperatures will cool more quickly this evening as the Sun sets. Lows tonight will drop into the upper 60s in Houston, and low 60s for most outlying areas away from the coast. It’s going to be delightful, and I can’t wait.
Friday
Another day with nice, dry air and plenty of sunshine. Expect highs to reach about 90 degrees as a result. Winds will be less, probably about 10 mph. Lows on Friday night will likely be a degree or two warmer than Thursday night. Still pleasant. (Note: Tomorrow’s post may be an hour or so late due primarily to my desire to take a long run with the drier air in the morning. It won’t matter, since the forecast for the next several days is not going to change much. In fact, you can pretty much ignore us tomorrow and that wouldn’t hurt my feelings.)
Saturday and Sunday
Expect plenty of sunshine, with highs in the low 90s. The dry air is going to modify somewhat, but we’re still going to see fairly low humidity levels all things considered. Low temperatures will reach about 70 degrees. There are zero weather concerns this weekend beyond the potential for a sunburn.
Next week
The first half of next week will see continued sunny weather, with high temperatures mainly in the low 90s. Dewpoints will recover into the 60s, so the air will feel more humid, but it’s likely going to be less humid than typical summer conditions in Houston. Nighttime temperatures will probably reach the low 70s. Some chance of a front, with our next real shot of rainfall, arrives by Thursday or Friday, but that part of the forecast remains hazy.
Tropics
Hurricane Helene is on the way to likely become a major hurricane today before striking the northern coast of Florida tonight. It is similar to Hurricane Ike in that, due to its large size, Helene is likely to pack a broad and very damaging storm surge. Another factor with this storm is the potential for heavy rainfall far inland, in such areas as northern Georgia and western North Carolina. We’ll continue tracking the system on The Eyewall.
A note from our partner, Reliant
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The one good thing this time of year is I get the Hurricane season is over post to read then usually the Fall day post to read. Good week Eric!
The cool front is nice. It’s 68 degrees up here in Magnolia. Dew Point is 64 F and
Humidity is 85 percent – would be nice if humidity was lower. We’ll do another long country walk in a couple hours.
Thanks for the update!!
So excited got your new book!
Fantastic to hear that Fall Day may be tomorrow after the trigger of today’s cool front.
While we won’t have an actual celebration, here’s an idea for 2025: Eric and Matt arrive to the event site by parachuting in.
Now you have a full year to talk us out of it. Or, a full year to go practice. You’re welcome. 🙂
Ok, ok I will ignore you tomorrow.
Great work!!! Have a Great Weekend!! 🙂
Enjoy your run, you deserve it!
When is our last 90degree day? Im seeing mid-90s next week. Summer just wont let go of us.
Historically the last 90 degree day on average in Houston is October 7th but it can and has hit 90 past that date many times before. The latest 90 degree day on record in Houston was on October 29th 1991. So, if your ready for the 90 degree days to stop then you may have to wait until mid or late October. Also, it has hit 89 many times in early November. Some years summer never fully let’s go of us until mid November sadly.
got an entire quarter-inch last evening, what a welcome relief to the lawn!
I live in Kemah and have a question about storm surge. What effect does the bay have on storm surge?
Here on Clear Lake by Webster west of Kemah, for a Hurricane we see storm surge, I’ve seen 8 feet lasting about 5 hours, with docks 4 feet underwater as I wade out w water to my waist. I imagine the entire Bay feels same. The channel by Galveston lets the surge thru. I admit maybe the direct ocean coast feels waves so feels another 4 feet maybe. I wish water wasn’t so good at finding ways inland, but basically I think 99% elevation is what matters not any other geography, to what surge a place gets. I could be wrong.
The NHC has a Caribbean watch area in the 7-day. Will Houston have a problem with this?
Yeah, I’m becoming more and more concerned about the GFS modeling.
I know there’s a lot going on with Helene, and I feel for those enduring that stress. So I feel guilty even asking but I’m asking anyway bc I don’t want to be caught unaware either.
Thanks @Matt J, for pointing this out. I checked, and yea, another concern, similar to how Helene started. Will be watching closely. At 20 percent at seven days.
Matt J: Still very, very early but signal and modelling for the past couple of days does show a system spinning up and heading for the southern one third of Florida.
This is for the latest Caribbean one?
20 ft surge is an insane amount! My understanding is that surge is reacting to low pressure. Why is the surge for this storm predicted to be so much higher than for Idalia and Michael before that, even though Helene is only predicted to be a cat3?
There’s a few things at play here. First, I believe the graphic from the NHC is showing storm tide. Storm tide is the Surge + Regular astronomical tide. I’m making this assumption based on the last sentence of the footnote: “Values on this graphic are inclusive of tide”. So it could either be an apples vs oranges comparison of storm surge vs storm tide, or it could be that those storms hit during a different time/lunar phases than Helene is being predicted to hit.
Second, Category only refers to the wind speed of a hurricane. Many things can affect the storm surge. According to the NHC, “storm intensity, forward speed, size (radius of maximum winds-RMW), angle of approach to the coast, central pressure (minimal contribution in comparison to the wind), and the shape and characteristics of coastal features such as bays and estuaries”. From the articles I’ve read, Helene is a much larger and faster (forward) moving hurricane than Idalia.
Finally, the forecasts could be just wrong. It’s a forecast, and we’re comparing it to actuals. I have no idea if the models are biased to the positive side in order to prevent an “oh crap, we should have evacuated” scenario.
Just wondering if we will have rain anytime soon? The ground is crusty and I planned on a fall garden, but can’t get it started.
It looks like there is a chance for rain next Thursday and Friday but it is a low chance. I wouldn’t count my chickens on getting any meaningful rain then. Since we are moving into a La Nina fall, expect these long stretches of sunny and dry weather to be the norm over the next couple of months.
I want to picture y’all tomorrow like Steve Martin in LA Story just flinging sunshine happy face magnets up on the calendar for a string of days and ditching work to go rollerskating