In brief: Today’s update assesses the drier air in Houston’s forecast in the days ahead, our lack of rain, and when we will see yet another front. I also share some reflections on Hurricane Milton, which almost certainly will become a historic storm upon its landfall in a day and a half.
Tuesday
Winds are increasing from the north-northeast this morning, and we’ll see some gusts up to 20 mph this afternoon. This represents the main push of drier air into our region, and dewpoints will bottom out in the 40s later today. This will allow high temperatures to reach the upper 80s to 90 degrees this afternoon, but the drier air will also cool off more quickly this evening. Expect lows in the lower-60s for much of Houston tonight, with upper 50s possible for areas further inland, while the coast remains a little warmer. Skies will be sunny.
Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday
It will start to feel like Groundhog Day as the forecast more or less repeats itself: Highs near 90 degrees, lows in the 60s, sunny skies. Dewpoints will start to slowly recover, but the air will continue to feel notably drier. Rain chances are zero-point-zero.
Saturday and Sunday
Expect more sunshine, with highs around 90 degrees and low temperatures in the upper 60s. Dewpoints will rise a little more, but humidity levels should still feel considerably lower than is customary in Houston. If you have outdoor plans, feel confident in them.
Next week
The pattern continues into next week, with perhaps a stronger front arriving around Tuesday or so. This one should drive daytime temperatures down toward 80 degrees, and nights possibly into the 50s. What it may not bring, unfortunately, is anything meaningful in the way of rain chances. I hope I’m wrong about that because we could really use some.
A few thoughts on Hurricane Milton
While there have been some fluctuations in the intensity of Hurricane Milton, it is a powerful Category 4 hurricane and remains on course to strike the west coast of Florida near Tampa on Wednesday night as a major hurricane. We have full and ongoing coverage on The Eyewall, but I just wanted to say a few words about how truly terrible such storms are.
As someone who lives relatively close to the coast, Milton reminds me most of Hurricane Rita, which blew up into a Category 5 hurricane in the central Gulf of Mexico 19 years ago. At about 72 hours before landfall, it appeared as though Rita would directly strike Galveston Island, and decimate the Houston area. As a homeowner and Houston resident, I felt truly awful—despairing, pit-in-the-stomach type of awful—as I thought about the consequences of such a storm for our region. Rita, of course, sparked the most deadly hurricane evacuation of all time before ultimately turning away from Houston toward southeastern Louisiana. Our forecast modeling was much more rudimentary at the time.
Hurricanes have impacts in three distinct waves, all of which are harrowing in every sense of the word. There is the immediacy of the storm: the violent winds and rains, the damage to homes and threat of loss of life. In the days following the storm there is the loss of power, the need for water, food, gasoline, and other essentials of modern life, and the slow process of getting help and picking up the pieces. And then there are the long-term changes: such as dramatically higher insurance rates, and a fundamentally changed and sometimes hollowed-out community.
Milton has the potential to bring all of that, and more, to the populous Tampa region with its 3 million people. There is still time for the storm to turn a bit. A track further south, even 50 miles into a less densely populated area, would make a huge difference. But time is running out for that.
Eric,
Didn’t Hurricane Rita head towards southWESTERN Louisiana?
Yes, in western Cameron Parish.
It’s been a gulf biased season. It turns out we got off easy with Beryl.
These temps are the Summer I wish for in Houston. Still waiting on Fall Day.
Good to see the cool fronts becoming more potent. Our AC units will see less playing time. On the other hand, our lawns are looking Martian these days.
I’m okay with that tradeoff. The AC units deserve more rest time since they slog round-the-clock for many many months here.
The garden sprinklers don’t have to work as much but they can for a bit, especially with the beautiful drier air that makes actual walking and being outside pleasant.
Eric, I trust you, as many Houstonians do, in keeping up with our weather and forecast updates for us…..I am hearing and seeing that our weather system (atmosphere, etc.) is being messed with bioengineering and chem trails….would like your input on this, please!
Oh boy. Here we go.
I’m firmly in the camp that it’s entirely Mother Nature..She’s being very cruel this year..
With that said, I’d enjoy a fully rounded knowledgeable discussion, as if we’re in a college classroom..
I would like to hear Matt and Eric’s input 🙂
Mother nature is cruel?
Good grief, she has been battered around by us humans, ruining everything natural that was once worthwhile on the planet, destroying habitat for wild life and humankind to the point of no return, and you say she has been cruel?
We should look to ourselves for the cause of all this weather misery and if we do not accept our role in all of this, then there is no hope left..
Climate change has raised ocean 6 inches since 1800. This hurricane Milton is mostly plain old Nature doing huge things. My Minnesotan family knows nature is strong and not nice, they don’t blame selves for frostbite.
More like look to Exxon. They’ve got us thinking it’s our fault while they put out their green commercials.
I used to love the Bay Day down in Corpus till I saw it was mostly sponsored by Exxon.
Paradox.
True, very very very true..We have not been kind to Mother Nature..I love walking the trails, I love beaches, I love Mother Nature..And I see that so many people don’t give a flip, they throw their trash on the ground, within a foot of a trash can..As if they want to show off their disrespect..
My wording on the above comment wasn’t to imply that we didn’t have a part in this weather misery..Because I fully believe we had a big part in all of this..
I meant to say Florida is taking a very bad battering this year 🙁
“…ruining everything natural…”
We are natural. 99% of all species that have ever existed are extinct; it’s supremely arrogant to think we won’t be, too. Humans aren’t special. We’re doomed, but the planet will be just fine. Until the sun enters its red giant phase and envelops Earth, that is. Or perhaps you think we can stop that too?
It’s important that you bring this up. The most effective defense against chemtrails is a sombrero made out of aluminum foil.
That’s for negative green electromagnetic radiation. Not chemtrails.
You’ve obviously missed this valuable research: On the Effectiveness of Aluminium Foil Helmets: An Empirical Study
http://web.archive.org/web/20100708230258/http://people.csail.mit.edu/rahimi/helmet/
TLDR: “It requires no stretch of the imagination to conclude that the current helmet craze is likely to have been propagated by the Government, possibly with the involvement of the FCC. We hope this report will encourage the paranoid community to develop improved helmet designs to avoid falling prey to these shortcomings.
I’m with Nelda, Eric. With all the HAARP rumors around Helene and the NC lithium mines, I would love to read how you explain what can be done to storms. As a citizen voter, I want to know if storms are being ginned up and directed. For decades I’ve wished they COULD affect storms…but to break them up before they hit land. It is beyond evil to think the opposite is being done! Pure evil! But at this point, I no longer have much trust in our government.
Humans have no more a prospect of intervening in storms than an ant on the sidewalk has a prospect of intervening with the path of the human that is about to step on them. Humans, just like the ant, can be lucky or unlucky. Our only advantage over the ant is our ability to foresee and understand a situation and take action beforehand, although it’s obvious we don’t always do that.
Read all of Flypusher’s comments.. That’s exactly what I’m thinking, but he or she worded it very well..Soothing to read Flypusher’s comments..
Our government isn’t going to shoot itself in the foot by destroying part of it’s country or citizens..I can imagine in my worst nightmares a foreign power doing so, but not our own government..Our government is going to have to contribute humanitarian aid to help people in the devastated areas meet their needs..So why would govt want to bleed itself of money and resources every two weeks?
And for all of you making fun of the skepticism, you know, BOTH can be true. It’s not an either/or thing. So thanks for all of your smart-*ss remarks, much appreciated (not). Think things through much?????
“Think things through much”
That’s the problem. Science is not a choose your own adventure game for the general public to play. People who do not understand how science works do not get to have their wild assumptions of how nature works taken seriously and constantly entertained. I don’t get why Eric has to be the one to entertain you. He’s not going to tell you anything different from any other competent scientist, that weather modification theories are baseless conspiracies.
Excellent point. I’ll add some relevant quotes from people who knew something about science:
“In science, ‘fact’ can only mean ‘confirmed to such a degree that it would be perverse to withhold provisional assent.’ I suppose that apples might start to rise tomorrow, but the possibility does not merit equal time in physics classrooms.”-Stephen Jay Gould
“Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence”-Carl Sagan
Scientists are a competitive bunch. Obviously taking down an established idea is a great way to make a name for yourself, but you’ve got to ante up with actual evidence to get a seat at the table.
Don’t let it bother you, Aimslee. It’s much easier to mock than to think a thing through.
90% Nature, 10% tinkering. Doesn’t take much.
I noticed this morning that the spaghetti plots are all lining up either right over Tampa or just south of it. My friend in Sarasota managed to evacuate last night and made it to Jacksonville. Wishing the best for the folks in the Tampa area.
Focus could be on spending $50k more upfront on building house higher and using concrete and stone and steel, to have hurricane impervious houses, like Bermuda tries. And on spending $3k to have week of batteries, water, ice, and books, to not suffer the recovery week. But most discussion skips this, instead focus is on evac which would cost $1000s too. But man I pray for FL.
I would like to see this for people who live in hurricane alley..Build houses higher, hurricane resistant..And to have this be doable for the average person…
Thanks for commenting on Milton. I think I have moved past the screaming emergency stress and into the “What will be, will be” stage. I imagine others have too. You do what you can and that’s all you can do. I remember Rita. East of Houston, she DEVASTATED everything all the way from the county line into Louisiana. Broken trees, blue roofs, and waters across I-10. I hadn’t thought of that storm in a long time. That 50 miles made a big difference. We will all keep praying for the people of Florida.
If the government could actually steer hurricanes, you’d be seeing a lot more fish storms. Look at the escalating costs of storm damage. Hurricanes don’t discriminate by political leanings. They smack everyone. It’s crazy and counterproductive to spin conspiracies in such an absence of evidence and no logical motives for deliberately steering storms onto your own citizens being offered. If we can’t put aside this nonsense to deal with real threats, this society is broken.
I agree…
The Air Force put out a paper in 1996 called Weather as a Force Multiplier. They did say they would control the weather by 2025.
While it is ridiculous to think humans could control the weather (you can’t control Mother Nature and chain reactions), the paper lays out basic premise that the gov’t is at least thinking about it.
Important to consider all viewpoints.
I have zero doubt that people think a lot about weather control. But that’s a far cry from actually being able to do it. But let’s say I’m someone high up in the government, and I have access to weather control. What reason would I have to strike my own citizens with a major hurricane? There’s no targeted surgical strikes with such weather weapons, so I’d damage my allies as much as any opponents. People who have lost everything and are desperate would be more dangerous to the social order and my re-election chances than people who have the basic necessities of life. Why would I disrupt quartz mining in my own nation? Hitting a rival nation and disrupting their economy does at least make sense, morality aside. Even if I’m the worst sort of corrupt parasitic politician, if I have any sense I’m not going to so overtly damage my host.
Exactly!!!
The Rita evacuation was deadly because the city & county told everyone to leave and saying there would not be any shelters anywhere in the city.
Also because everyone took every car they owned.
We were guilty of doing that..We ended up having a bad experience with with taking all our vehicles , long story..Bottom line was I had to de escalate a huge fight between a family member in his own vehicle and a random road rage driver, they both had pulled over off the road to “settle things”…..
Never multiple vehicles again…
The Rita evac was the largest in US history – about 2.5 million fleeing and resulted in 107 deaths – more than the count of folks killed by Rita. The evac failed for various reasons …
Highway gridlock – travel times were between 12–36 hours – most folks had no destination plan.
Temps were in the 100+ degrees F, plus high humidity.
Evacs faced shortages of food, water, fuel, and medical attention.
Folks had difficulty making and receiving phone calls.
Shelters were designed to move evacuees about 150 miles inland, but failed.
Residents in higher elevations left before those in lower elevations.
Many folks thought they were at risk and evacuated, even though they weren’t officially told to do so.