In brief: Today’s update assesses the drier air in Houston’s forecast in the days ahead, our lack of rain, and when we will see yet another front. I also share some reflections on Hurricane Milton, which almost certainly will become a historic storm upon its landfall in a day and a half.
Tuesday
Winds are increasing from the north-northeast this morning, and we’ll see some gusts up to 20 mph this afternoon. This represents the main push of drier air into our region, and dewpoints will bottom out in the 40s later today. This will allow high temperatures to reach the upper 80s to 90 degrees this afternoon, but the drier air will also cool off more quickly this evening. Expect lows in the lower-60s for much of Houston tonight, with upper 50s possible for areas further inland, while the coast remains a little warmer. Skies will be sunny.
Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday
It will start to feel like Groundhog Day as the forecast more or less repeats itself: Highs near 90 degrees, lows in the 60s, sunny skies. Dewpoints will start to slowly recover, but the air will continue to feel notably drier. Rain chances are zero-point-zero.
Saturday and Sunday
Expect more sunshine, with highs around 90 degrees and low temperatures in the upper 60s. Dewpoints will rise a little more, but humidity levels should still feel considerably lower than is customary in Houston. If you have outdoor plans, feel confident in them.
Next week
The pattern continues into next week, with perhaps a stronger front arriving around Tuesday or so. This one should drive daytime temperatures down toward 80 degrees, and nights possibly into the 50s. What it may not bring, unfortunately, is anything meaningful in the way of rain chances. I hope I’m wrong about that because we could really use some.
A few thoughts on Hurricane Milton
While there have been some fluctuations in the intensity of Hurricane Milton, it is a powerful Category 4 hurricane and remains on course to strike the west coast of Florida near Tampa on Wednesday night as a major hurricane. We have full and ongoing coverage on The Eyewall, but I just wanted to say a few words about how truly terrible such storms are.
As someone who lives relatively close to the coast, Milton reminds me most of Hurricane Rita, which blew up into a Category 5 hurricane in the central Gulf of Mexico 19 years ago. At about 72 hours before landfall, it appeared as though Rita would directly strike Galveston Island, and decimate the Houston area. As a homeowner and Houston resident, I felt truly awful—despairing, pit-in-the-stomach type of awful—as I thought about the consequences of such a storm for our region. Rita, of course, sparked the most deadly hurricane evacuation of all time before ultimately turning away from Houston toward southeastern Louisiana. Our forecast modeling was much more rudimentary at the time.
Hurricanes have impacts in three distinct waves, all of which are harrowing in every sense of the word. There is the immediacy of the storm: the violent winds and rains, the damage to homes and threat of loss of life. In the days following the storm there is the loss of power, the need for water, food, gasoline, and other essentials of modern life, and the slow process of getting help and picking up the pieces. And then there are the long-term changes: such as dramatically higher insurance rates, and a fundamentally changed and sometimes hollowed-out community.
Milton has the potential to bring all of that, and more, to the populous Tampa region with its 3 million people. There is still time for the storm to turn a bit. A track further south, even 50 miles into a less densely populated area, would make a huge difference. But time is running out for that.
Eric,
Didn’t Hurricane Rita head towards southWESTERN Louisiana?
Yes, in western Cameron Parish.
It’s been a gulf biased season. It turns out we got off easy with Beryl.
These temps are the Summer I wish for in Houston. Still waiting on Fall Day.
Good to see the cool fronts becoming more potent. Our AC units will see less playing time. On the other hand, our lawns are looking Martian these days.
I’m okay with that tradeoff. The AC units deserve more rest time since they slog round-the-clock for many many months here.
The garden sprinklers don’t have to work as much but they can for a bit, especially with the beautiful drier air that makes actual walking and being outside pleasant.
Eric, I trust you, as many Houstonians do, in keeping up with our weather and forecast updates for us…..I am hearing and seeing that our weather system (atmosphere, etc.) is being messed with bioengineering and chem trails….would like your input on this, please!
Oh boy. Here we go.
I’m firmly in the camp that it’s entirely Mother Nature..She’s being very cruel this year..
With that said, I’d enjoy a fully rounded knowledgeable discussion, as if we’re in a college classroom..
I would like to hear Matt and Eric’s input 🙂
Mother nature is cruel?
Good grief, she has been battered around by us humans, ruining everything natural that was once worthwhile on the planet, destroying habitat for wild life and humankind to the point of no return, and you say she has been cruel?
We should look to ourselves for the cause of all this weather misery and if we do not accept our role in all of this, then there is no hope left..
Climate change has raised ocean 6 inches since 1800. This hurricane Milton is mostly plain old Nature doing huge things. My Minnesotan family knows nature is strong and not nice, they don’t blame selves for frostbite.
More like look to Exxon. They’ve got us thinking it’s our fault while they put out their green commercials.
I used to love the Bay Day down in Corpus till I saw it was mostly sponsored by Exxon.
Paradox.
It’s important that you bring this up. The most effective defense against chemtrails is a sombrero made out of aluminum foil.
That’s for negative green electromagnetic radiation. Not chemtrails.
I’m with Nelda, Eric. With all the HAARP rumors around Helene and the NC lithium mines, I would love to read how you explain what can be done to storms. As a citizen voter, I want to know if storms are being ginned up and directed. For decades I’ve wished they COULD affect storms…but to break them up before they hit land. It is beyond evil to think the opposite is being done! Pure evil! But at this point, I no longer have much trust in our government.
And for all of you making fun of the skepticism, you know, BOTH can be true. It’s not an either/or thing. So thanks for all of your smart-*ss remarks, much appreciated (not). Think things through much?????
“Think things through much”
That’s the problem. Science is not a choose your own adventure game for the general public to play. People who do not understand how science works do not get to have their wild assumptions of how nature works taken seriously and constantly entertained. I don’t get why Eric has to be the one to entertain you. He’s not going to tell you anything different from any other competent scientist, that weather modification theories are baseless conspiracies.
90% Nature, 10% tinkering. Doesn’t take much.
I noticed this morning that the spaghetti plots are all lining up either right over Tampa or just south of it. My friend in Sarasota managed to evacuate last night and made it to Jacksonville. Wishing the best for the folks in the Tampa area.
Focus could be on spending $50k more upfront on building house higher and using concrete and stone and steel, to have hurricane impervious houses, like Bermuda tries. And on spending $3k to have week of batteries, water, ice, and books, to not suffer the recovery week. But most discussion skips this, instead focus is on evac which would cost $1000s too. But man I pray for FL.
Thanks for commenting on Milton. I think I have moved past the screaming emergency stress and into the “What will be, will be” stage. I imagine others have too. You do what you can and that’s all you can do. I remember Rita. East of Houston, she DEVASTATED everything all the way from the county line into Louisiana. Broken trees, blue roofs, and waters across I-10. I hadn’t thought of that storm in a long time. That 50 miles made a big difference. We will all keep praying for the people of Florida.
If the government could actually steer hurricanes, you’d be seeing a lot more fish storms. Look at the escalating costs of storm damage. Hurricanes don’t discriminate by political leanings. They smack everyone. It’s crazy and counterproductive to spin conspiracies in such an absence of evidence and no logical motives for deliberately steering storms onto your own citizens being offered. If we can’t put aside this nonsense to deal with real threats, this society is broken.
The Air Force put out a paper in 1996 called Weather as a Force Multiplier. They did say they would control the weather by 2025.
While it is ridiculous to think humans could control the weather (you can’t control Mother Nature and chain reactions), the paper lays out basic premise that the gov’t is at least thinking about it.
Important to consider all viewpoints.